S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are not all created equal.

Some tend to perform better when the Aussie dollar is weaker against the US dollar and other foreign currencies. And some are prone to outperform amid a stronger Australian dollar.

Now, as you’re probably aware, the Aussie dollar is trading near a three-month high against the greenback.

On Tuesday afternoon it was worth 71.48 US cents. That’s up 7.0% since 16 January, when the exchange rate stood at just 66.81 cents.

We’ll look at which ASX 200 shares may catch tailwinds from the stronger domestic currency, and which might face headwinds, below.

But first…

What’s driving the Aussie dollar higher?

The recent strength of the Australian dollar versus US currency has been driven on several fronts.

First, global currency markets appear to have gotten the jitters, with public debt in the world’s biggest economy now topping US$40 trillion.

Then there are the efforts underway by the world’s number two economy to strengthen its own currency, which could further support the Aussie dollar and change the market dynamics for certain ASX 200 shares.

According to National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

We shouldn’t forget that when it comes to currencies and the yuan, the Aussie has the strongest correlation to it. And the People’s Bank of China has made very clear that they want to see a stronger currency.

Catril added that the ongoing war with Iran and further increases in US public debt could see the Australian keep climbing to US 72 cents.

Now one last item of importance here. Namely, that currency moves are notoriously difficult to call, so a retrace is always possible in the weeks or months ahead.

With that said…

Which ASX 200 shares could be impacted by a stronger Aussie dollar?

Keeping in mind that a range of other factors could impact the performance of these ASX 200 shares – positively or negatively – more than any changes in the AUD exchange rate with the greenback, the first company I’d avoid buying amid a strengthening Aussie dollar is BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

Now there’s a lot to like about BHP shares, particularly the mining giant’s fast growing copper exposure.

However, most of the commodities that BHP digs up and sells are denominated in US dollars, while the company reports in Aussie dollars. So, a rising AUD could crimp BHP’s international earnings.

For similar reasons I’d avoid gold mining giant Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) in this setting. That’s because gold is priced in US dollars, so a stronger AUD could also reduce Northern Star’s revenue and profit margins.

Turning to the first ASX 200 share that could benefit from a rising AUD we find Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN).

First a rising AUD could boost international travel demand from Aussie travellers. Second, much of Qantas’ costs – think jet fuel and aircraft parts and purchases – are priced in US dollars. So, a strong Aussie dollar could increase Qantas’ profit margins and earnings.

Which brings us to the second ASX 200 share I’d buy amid a strength Australian currency, JB Hi Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH).

That’s because JB Hi-Fi imports a lot of its merchandise, often priced in US dollars or other foreign currencies. As the Aussie dollar rises, those purchase prices will come down, supporting JB Hi-Fi’s margins and earnings.

The post 2 ASX 200 shares I’d buy and 2 I’d avoid amid a surging Aussie dollar appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) share price is in focus today after the company posted operating EPS of 40.4 cents per share (pre-tax) for FY26, meeting its guidance, and reported a 22% lift in recurring funds management revenue to $165.5 million.

What did HMC Capital report?

• Operating EPS (pre-tax) of 40.4 cents per share, in line with FY26 guidance
• Underlying EPS (pre-tax) of 30.2 cents, excluding discontinued operations
• Fee-generating AUM grew 15% to $16.9 billion
• Recurring funds management revenue up 22% to $165.5 million
• FY26 dividend declared at 12.0 cents per share
• Tangible assets and undrawn debt capacity of $1.9 billion

What else do investors need to know?

During FY26, HMC Capital expanded across all major verticals. Real estate fee-generating AUM increased to $9.0 billion, bolstered by solid growth in unlisted property strategies and ongoing deployment opportunities. In private credit, fee-generating AUM rose to $2.3 billion, supported by fresh institutional mandates and strong net inflows. The digital infrastructure and energy platforms also contributed to higher management revenues and strengthened the balance sheet, with key partnerships helping to fund future growth and development.

The company’s more focused strategy, which included capital recycling and building platforms with institutional backing, has positioned it for continued expansion. Management highlights a robust pipeline and a strong balance sheet, supporting additional investment opportunities in FY27.

What did HMC Capital management say?

HMC Managing Director and Group CEO, David Di Pilla, said:

During FY26, HMC made substantial progress against our strategic priorities to simplify, scale and strengthen our operations and position the business to create long-term value for security holders.

The Group secured significant new institutional capital commitments across Private Credit and Energy, continued to grow our Real Estate platform and advanced strategic capital recycling initiatives within Digital Infrastructure. These actions have given us dry powder to continue to grow… With significant liquidity and a proven ability to attract institutional capital, we are focused on deploying capital into opportunities that can drive higher returns and long-term recurring earnings growth.

What’s next for HMC Capital?

Looking to FY27, HMC Capital is targeting at least 16% growth in underlying earnings, with guidance for underlying EPS of at least 35 cents per share. This forecast is underpinned by more than 30% expected growth in recurring funds management revenue, a 35% rise in distributions from its co-investments, and further cost efficiencies.

The board has laid down an FY27 dividend guidance of 15 cents per share, a 25% increase on FY26, supported by the company’s growth in recurring earnings and ongoing capital recycling initiatives.

HMC Capital share price snapshot

The HMC Capital share price has struggled over the past 12 months, underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO) with a decline of almost 25%.

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The post HMC Capital share price on watch as FY26 earnings meet guidance, FY27 growth targeted appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Metallium Ltd (ASX: MTM) share price is in focus as the company reported the resumption of chlorinated testing at its Texas Technology Campus and confirmed its first revenue from the ECT MXene program.

What did Metallium report?

• Chlorinated Flash Joule Heating (FJH) testing to recommence this week at Gator Point, Texas
• First revenue under the ECT MXene testing agreement: US$500,000 payment underway, full receipt expected by week’s end
• Continued build-out at Gator Point, with Area 140 roof restoration due to finish in early September
• Expansion of on-site laboratory capabilities for advanced materials testing and FJH optimisation
• John Campo appointed as Texas-based Head of Engineering, adding 30 years’ industry experience

What else do investors need to know?

Metallium resolved a site and permitting issue at its Gator Point campus by securing additional land from Chambers County for nominal consideration. This has enabled the recommencement of testing and further expanded Metallium’s relationship with the local community and authorities.

The company has upgraded safety systems, operating procedures, and emergency readiness to support chlorinated testing. It has also invested in new analytical equipment for its laboratory, such as X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis, to accelerate testing and optimisation.

Preparations are advanced for the ECT MXene campaign, focusing on the application of Metallium’s FJH technology for innovative two-dimensional materials used in electronics, defence, and energy storage.

What did Metallium management say?

Managing Director & CEO Michael Walshe said:

With the site constraint now resolved, we can recommence chlorinated testing and continue progressing the FJH platform toward commercialisation. Our immediate focus is the planned 12-hour multi-reactor campaign in September

I would particularly like to thank Chambers County and the Chambers County Landfill for working constructively with us to reach a practical solution. Their support has been greatly appreciated and reflects the strong relationship we are continuing to build with the local community.

We are also continuing to expand the capability at Gator Point. The Area 140 roof is nearing completion, we are adding further analytical capability to our on-site laboratory, and preparations are underway for the ECT MXene testing campaign. The first US$500,000 ECT payment is also underway, with full receipt expected by the end of this week. John Campo’s appointment as Head of Engineering further strengthens the team as we continue to develop and scale the FJH platform.

What’s next for Metallium?

Looking forward, Metallium aims to complete key infrastructure at its Texas campus and push ahead with its multi-reactor campaign in September. The MXene testing program is expected to provide new commercial opportunities as advanced materials markets expand.

With a strengthened technical team and growing laboratory capabilities, the company’s focus remains on scaling up its proprietary FJH technology for critical and precious metals recovery, aligning with the demand for supply chain security and sustainability.

Metallium share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Metallium shares have declined 43%, significantly trailing the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO)

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The post Metallium resumes testing and records first commercial revenue appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Metallium reports breakthrough FJH technology results

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.