DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares have been hammered, falling 19% over the past month, 39% year to date, and 54% over 12 months.

But after disappointing 2026 guidance, could the sell-off of the ASX tech stock have gone too far?

Counter-drone spending leads to orders

DroneShield’s technology is designed to detect, identify, and defeat drone threats, with customers across military, government, law enforcement, and critical infrastructure.

The demand story is already becoming tangible. By late July, the company had secured $206 million of committed FY26 revenue, almost matching its entire FY25 revenue with five months of the year still remaining.

It’s promising and crucial for DroneShield shares that counter-drone spending is translating into real orders, rather than simply representing an attractive future market.

The next challenge is delivering as demand grows

The company is expanding its global production footprint, including establishing manufacturing operations in Europe, and expects combined annual production capacity to reach around $2.4 billion by the end of 2026.

DroneShield is also continuing to invest in its technology. Management has described its current product rollout as the most significant product cycle in the company’s history, with further releases expected through 2027.

Its existing hardware can also gain additional capabilities through software subscriptions as the company’s radio-frequency intelligence dataset grows.

If the counter-drone market continues expanding, the combination of technology, manufacturing scale, and an established customer base could put DroneShield in a strong position to capture that demand.

There’s a big catch: valuation

DroneShield shares trade on high P/E multiples, meaning investors are already pricing in substantial future growth. That can be justified if the company becomes considerably larger over the long term. However, it also leaves little room for disappointment.

Investors got a reminder of that on 28 July. DroneShield released a calendar 2026 trading update alongside a new contract announcement. While the operational numbers were strong, management’s guidance disappointed the market.

The company expects FY26 revenue of $250 million to $270 million, representing growth of 15% to 25% on FY25. The problem? Consensus expectations had been closer to $323 million.

The result was a sharp DroneShield share price decline, with profit-taking adding to the pressure.

Short sellers are also taking aim. DroneShield is currently the most shorted ASX share, with short interest of 15.7%.

What do brokers think?

No wonder analysts are divided on DroneShield shares.

TradingView data shows two of four brokers at strong buy and two at sell or strong sell. The average price target is $2.13, implying about 12% upside, while the most bullish target of $2.80 implies roughly 47% upside. The bearish target of $1.60 suggests another 16% downside.

Canaccord Genuity is among the bulls, retaining a buy rating and $2.80 price target.

So, is there upside left? There could be, but DroneShield now needs to prove it can convert its enormous opportunity into sustained earnings growth.

The post Is the DroneShield share price now too cheap to ignore? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Why DroneShield, Life360 and SGH shares are crashing lower this week
• Why I’d buy and hold Pro Medicus and DroneShield shares
• Why this expert is betting against 4DMedical and DroneShield shares
• Why is everyone talking about DroneShield, Treasury Wine and Westpac shares on Monday?

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) are deeply in the red over a 12-month period, but after the release of the company’s results this week, brokers are tipping a rebound.

The shares fell sharply in late June after the company announced a downgrade in expected pre-tax earnings from $180-$190 million down to $163-$169 million.

Over a 12-month period the company’s shares are 39.6% lower.

But after the company’s results this week, the analyst teams at both Morgans and Macquarie are tipping some serious share price upside for the stock.

Judo looking forward after solid profit result

Let’s have a quick look at what Judo reported this week.

The company reported a pre-tax profit of $168.1 million, up 34%, with Judo saying this reflected strong revenue growth.

Judo enjoyed above system lending growth, with gross loans and advances of $14.7 billion, up 18% year on year, at the top end of guidance.

Deposit balances also grew 24% to $12.2 billion.

Judo is expecting pre-tax profit to come in at $210-$220 million for the current year.

Chief Executive Officer Chris Bayliss said regarding the result:

FY26 has been another year of genuine momentum for Judo. While the increase in specific provisions late in the year was disappointing, the underlying performance of the Bank has remained strong, with record revenue, continued operating leverage, strong deposit growth and lending at the top end of guidance. We have continued to deliver above-system growth, underpinned by our customer value proposition of smarter judgement, faster decisions, and stronger relationships. With major investments in our core technology platforms behind us, we are now focused on delivering operating leverage and driving our return on equity. As we continue to scale the loan book, we are seeing more of our revenue growth translate to profit growth. Our cost to income ratio has improved significantly to now be the lowest in the sector3, and will keep improving as we scale.

Judo Capital shares looking cheap

Macquarie said in a note to its clients that the question is, “whether Judo is able to achieve that balance between margins, growth, and credit quality to achieve returns at scale”.

The analysts said while it was difficult to be certain, “we think the valuation discount adequately compensates the risks”.

Macquarie has a price target of $1.65 on Judo shares compared to $1.06 currently.

Morgans meanwhile said they expected earnings growth to be in the strong double digits from FY28-FY28.

They said:

Short-term target price is $1.42/share, but we think by the end of this decade JDO could be worth close to $2/share. JDO is higher risk and more cyclically exposed than the major banks, but investors are compensated by higher potential returns at current prices.  

The post How high will Judo Capital shares go? Brokers have their say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Brokers tip these 3 ASX shares to climb another 50% to 66%
• 2 ASX 200 bank stocks making BIG moves today on results
• Judo Capital reports FY26 earnings and upbeat outlook
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) has quietly built a powerful position in Australia’s growing wealth management industry.

I think the next decade could give this tech stock, which is part of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), an even bigger opportunity as more money flows into superannuation and financial advisers continue embracing modern investment platforms.

Here is why I would be happy to own Netwealth shares for the long term.

More money can keep moving onto the platform

Netwealth provides the technology and administration that financial advisers use to manage investments and superannuation for their clients.

I like this business model because growth can build on itself.

An adviser who chooses Netwealth can gradually move more clients onto the platform. Existing clients can contribute more money over time, while rising investment markets can increase the value of assets already sitting there.

Netwealth finished June with $135.7 billion of funds under administration after attracting $15.4 billion of net flows during FY26.

The net flows are the figure that catches my eye. They show investors and advisers are actively choosing to place more money with Netwealth rather than growth simply coming from rising share markets.

Australia’s superannuation system should also continue creating an expanding pool of assets for platforms to compete over. If Netwealth keeps winning more than its current share, I think the business could become substantially larger by 2036.

It can become more valuable to advisers

There is another part of the story I find interesting.

Netwealth does not have to rely solely on attracting more funds. It can also give advisers more reasons to use its technology.

Managed accounts are a good example. These allow advisers to manage client portfolios more efficiently while making changes across many accounts at once. Netwealth’s managed account funds under management reached $30.5 billion at the end of June, almost 30% higher than a year earlier.

I think that growth says something important about the relationship Netwealth is building with advisers.

The more of their work that can be completed through the platform, the more embedded Netwealth can become in how an advice practice operates.

The company is continuing to broaden its offering as well. It recently launched Netwealth Private for sophisticated investors and an Individual HIN solution that allows advisers and clients to hold Australian securities directly while still using Netwealth’s technology and administration.

That gives Netwealth more ways to serve clients whose needs become increasingly complex as their wealth grows.

There is still plenty to compete for

Netwealth has already become a major platform provider, but Australia’s wealth management market is enormous.

That leaves room for the ASX 200 tech stock to keep winning advisers from older platforms and deepen relationships with the advisers already using it.

Competition will remain strong, particularly from HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) and established financial institutions investing in their own platforms.

For me, that makes continued net inflows an important sign to watch. Netwealth expects FY27 net flows of between $18 billion and $20 billion, which would represent another step up from FY26 if management delivers on that outlook.

I think sustained inflows at that level could transform the scale of the business over a decade.

Foolish takeaway

Netwealth is the type of ASX 200 tech stock where I would be happy to give the investment plenty of time.

Every year of strong inflows adds more assets to the platform, while new technology can make the relationship with advisers deeper.

If that continues through to the 2030s, I think today’s Netwealth could eventually look like an early chapter in a much larger story.

The post Could this ASX 200 tech stock be one of the best to own for the next decade? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 ASX 200 broker buy ratings
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Down 40% to 70%. Why I’d buy these ASX tech stocks before August

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24 and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.