The team at Bell Potter has provided updated guidance on one of Australia’s most popular defensive shares: Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). 

Why Telstra shares are in so many portfolios

Telstra is Australia’s largest and longest-running provider of telecommunications and information products and services. 

As one of the largest listed companies on the ASX, the telecommunications and information service provider also has a presence in 20 countries around the globe.

Its market dominance provides a defensive option for many investors, while also having a strong track record of paying healthy dividends.

These characteristics have helped Telstra shares climb 6% in 2026, while much of the ASX 200 has lagged amid global headwinds and inflation fears.

So is it a buy, hold or sell according to Bell Potter?

Here is what the broker is saying. 

Under the microscope

Bell Potter has updated its forecasts before the end of the financial year.

The changes reflect:

• Higher mobile plan prices introduced in early May.
• Higher NBN broadband prices for home and small business customers from 1 July.
• Growing competition from Starlink, especially in regional and remote Australia.
• More certainty about Telstra’s share buyback, which affects the number of shares on issue.

Bell Potter slightly increased its revenue forecasts (by less than 1%) to reflect Telstra’s recent price rises, but trimmed its underlying EBITDAaL profit forecasts by around 1% for FY26–FY28, as higher costs and increasing competition are expected to offset much of the additional revenue.

Overall, Telstra’s recent price increases should modestly boost revenue, but stronger competition (particularly from Starlink) and other factors slightly reduce profit expectations. 

Bell Potter still expects Telstra to deliver on its guidance and maintain its dividend.

Hold recommendation maintained

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has a hold recommendation on Telstra shares along with a $5.10 price target. 

This target indicates that Telstra shares are currently trading close to fair value. 

We expect little if any surprises at the upcoming result so the focus shifts to the FY27 guidance and outlook. We and the market continue to forecast mid to high single digit growth in the key metrics of underlying EBITDAaL, cash EBIT and EPS.

Bell Potter said the key focus, therefore, is more likely to be on capital management and, in particular, whether any further share buy-back is announced. 

Telstra has already flagged growing dividends as part of its Capital Management Framework but there is perhaps some question over whether it can continue to fund share buy-backs consistent with the levels of the past two years.

The post What is Bell Potter’s updated view on Telstra shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a strong start to the week. The benchmark index rose 0.7% to 8,823.4 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Tuesday following a good night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 10 points or 0.1% higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.6%, the S&P 500 is up 1.15%, and the Nasdaq has stormed 2% higher.

Telstra shares rated as a hold

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares are fully valued according to the team at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating and $5.10 price target on the telco giant’s shares, which is a touch below its current share price. The broker isn’t expecting any surprises in August, saying: “We expect little if any surprises at the upcoming result so the focus shifts to the FY27 guidance and outlook. We and the market continue to forecast mid to high single digit growth in the key metrics of underlying EBITDAaL, cash EBIT and EPS – consistent with the Connected Future 30 strategy – so, again, we see little prospect of surprise in the guidance.”

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a decent session after oil prices pushed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.9% to US$70.51 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.2% to US$72.85 a barrel. Traders were bidding oil higher despite easing US-Iran tensions. They may have doubts that peace talks will hold.

Gold price tumbles

It could be a tough session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.7% to US$4,026.1 an ounce. Concerns over rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes weighed on the precious metal.

Consumer shares to buy

Bell Potter has named the consumer shares to buy in a difficult operating environment. They are JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI), and Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK). Commenting on its picks, the broker said: “We continue to favour our key preferences, JBH, UNI and NCK considering their market position, gross margin levers and balance sheet strength vs current valuation.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What is Bell Potter’s updated view on Telstra shares?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• ASX 200 rebounds as Middle East fears cool
• What are ASX 200 futures?
• Atlas Arteria reacts to Dulles Greenway litigation outcome

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Age pension eligibility criteria will change tomorrow, potentially enabling more Australians to access this social support.

Seniors will be able to earn a bit more income, and hold a higher value of assets, while still qualifying for the age pension.

The Department of Social Services announced indexation changes to the pension’s means testing last week.

That means the thresholds for the pension’s assets test and income test are going up.

Indexation occurs twice per year to mitigate the effect of inflation.

Australians born on or after 1 January 1957 can apply for the pension at age 67, whether retired or not.

Here are the details of the changes, effective tomorrow, 1 July.

Pension means testing on assets

Assessable items for the pension assets test include ASX shares, superannuation, bonds, managed funds, rental properties, and cash.

The only exception is your personal residence.

Under the changes, single homeowners will be able to own up to $333,000 in assets and still qualify for a full pension.

If you own assets worth between $333,001 and $733,500, you will qualify for a part-payment.

Single seniors who rent their homes will be able to own up to $600,000 in assets and still qualify for the full pension.

If you own assets worth between $600,001 and $1,000,500, you will be eligible for a part-pension.

Couples who own their residence will be able to have up to $499,000 in other assets while still being eligible for the full age pension.

If you have assets worth between $499,001 and $1,102,50, you will qualify for a part-payment.

Senior couples who rent their homes will be able to own up to $766,000 in assets and still be eligible for the full age pension.

Renters with assets worth between $766,001 and $1,369,500 can apply for a part-payment.

The full age pension is $1,200.90 per fortnight for singles, and $905.20 per person, per fortnight, for couples.

Means testing on income

Under the changes, senior Australians will be able to earn a bit more from tomorrow while still being eligible for the age pension.

Single seniors will be able to earn up to $226 per fortnight and still qualify for the full age pension.

If you earn between $227 and $2,627.80 per fortnight, you can apply for a part-pension.

Couples will be able to earn up to $396 per fortnight and still qualify for the full age pension.

If you earn between $397 and $4,016.80 per fortnight, you will be eligible for a part-pension.

Assessable income includes wages and investment income.

In order to calculate investment income, Centrelink relies on generous set deeming rates.

The lower deeming rate is 1.25% and the upper deeming rate is 3.25%.

The asset value threshold is increasing to $66,800 for singles and $110,600 for couples.

This means the first $66,800 of your financial assets, or $110,600 for couples, will have a 1.25% deemed rate of interest.

Everything above that will be deemed to have earned 3.25% interest.

Investment properties are the only exception to deeming rules.

Instead, actual net rental income is used in the pension income test.

As we reported last week, Australians overestimate how much they need for a comfortable retirement by 40%.

The post You can own and earn more in retirement and still get the age pension from tomorrow appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What is Bell Potter’s updated view on Telstra shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 3 super ASX shares that could be too good to ignore in July
• Why I’d buy and hold this growing ASX 200 share forever
• Where to invest $10,000 in ASX shares in July

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.