US stocks operate on a different fiscal year cycle from S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares.

However, as so many of us are invested in both markets, it’s relevant to compare their performance over a given period.

So, let’s canvas what happened in the Australian financial year (FY26) from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026.

Let’s compare…

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares increased 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26. 

The S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) rose 2.43% and provided total returns of 5.69%, according to S&P Global data.

By comparison, the S&P 500 Index (SP: INX) rose by 20.86% and delivered total returns of 22.32%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) ascended 28.69% and gave a total return of 30.55%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX: .DJI) rose 18.65% and delivered a total return of 20.65%.

Why did US stocks outperform ASX 200 shares?

Drew Meredith from Wattle Partners says it comes down to America’s leading position in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

In an article in The Golden Times, Meredith explained:

The United States market is being driven by a small number of companies with outsized earnings power, almost all tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon have delivered earnings growth that justifies, at least in part, the premium valuations US indices now carry.

Meanwhile, ASX 200 shares struggled to grow in FY26 amid resurgent inflation, three interest rate hikes in February, March, and May (reversing the impact of one cut in August), the energy crisis, and weak consumer confidence.

On top of that, fears of an AI bubble and a SaaSpocalypse weighed on our tech sector, which dove 37% in FY26.

ASX 200 healthcare shares also tumbled 37% amid many industry challenges, including a weaker US currency impacting global players.

Meredith says the Federal Budget’s CGT reform package, announced in May, has also weighed on financial shares and property, too.

Can the US markets keep delivering?

Shaun Manuell, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at AustralianSuper, isn’t ready to call the top of the US stock market yet.

In the Weekend Australian, Manuell described US equities being in the “rational exuberance phase”.

He said:

The retail investor is back in the US, and I think there’s a lot of weight behind that.

When the US equity market gets going it’s a very, very powerful engine. So, I wouldn’t be calling the top of that just yet.

As for ASX 200 shares, Manuell is not optimistic for FY27.

It’ll be another challenging year; you’re going to have to be really careful in the sectors.

We know consumer sentiment’s down, house prices are down, and that leads through to the wealth effect as well.

Manuell said AusSuper is “slightly overweight” US stocks, and underweight ASX shares compared to global stocks.

He likes ASX 200 mining shares but is underweight bank stocks.

Should you buy US stocks?

Meredith warns against ‘recency bias’ and any temptation investors may feel to switch out of ASX 200 shares in order to buy US stocks.

Meredith explains:

When one market dramatically outperforms another for two or three years, investors feel they were wrong to be diversified. That feeling is not evidence. It is recency bias.

The periods of sharpest US outperformance relative to global peers have consistently been followed by periods of mean reversion.

This happened after the dot-com peak in 2000. It happened in the early years after the GFC when US banks were recovering and Australian miners were printing money.

It does not happen on a schedule you can predict, which is precisely why systematic diversification matters more than tactical shifts.

Manuell says his team is eyeing off a recent pullback in the Magnificent Seven US stocks as a potential buying opportunity.

He also said he is more comfortable investing in the “picks and shovels” of the AI revolution, commenting:

Everyone’s been playing the picks and shovels because they can see there’s money to be made but this is just making the infrastructure.

Once we’ve got the infrastructure, what’s going to happen? Nobody knows…

3-year snapshot of ASX 200 shares vs. US stocks

Total returns	FY24	FY25	FY26
ASX 200	11.44%	13.81%	7%
ASX All Ords	11.44%	13.23%	5.69%
S&P 500	25.02%	15.16%	22.32%

The post ASX 200 shares vs. US stocks in FY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Is the ASX 200 heading for a third straight fall as oil prices jump?
• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer
• Fletcher Building lifts FY26 profit guidance as quarterly volumes rise

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a subdued session and finished lower. The benchmark index fell 0.25% to 8,762.5 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday following a good night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 8 points or 0.1% higher this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.25%, the S&P 500 is up 0.75%, and the Nasdaq is 1.25% higher.

Oil prices slide

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor finish to the week after oil prices pulled back overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.85% to US$72.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.1% to US$76.42 a barrel. This has been driven by a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Hold Jumbo shares

Bell Potter thinks Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) shares are fully valued following a strong gain on Thursday. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating with an improved price target of $7.20. In response to the release of a trading update, Bell Potter said: “Although we are encouraged with the improvement in Dream US and Stride, we continue to see risks to market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock. Additional risks include SaaS AI disruption and TLC reseller renewal risk.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.25% to US$4,133.9 an ounce. A pullback in oil prices has reduced inflation and interest-rate hike fears.

Accumulate Netwealth shares

Morgans sees value in Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares at current levels. In response to a deal with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the broker has reiterated its accumulate rating with a $27.50 price target. It commented: “NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 7 ASX shares catching broker upgrades this week
• Is the ASX 200 heading for a third straight fall as oil prices jump?
• 9 ASX 200 shares downgraded by analysts this week
• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It was yet another negative session for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX shares this Thursday, the fourth red session for the Australian markets in a row this week.

After opening sharply lower at the start of morning trading, the ASX 200 did recover a little over the day. But it wasn’t nearly enough to save investors from a loss. By the time trading finished, the index had lost 0.26% and closed at 8,762.5 points.

This depressing Thursday for the local markets came after a mixed night over on the US markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) wasn’t in a good place, dropping 1.09%.

However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) fared far better, rising 0.2%.

Let’s get back to the local markets now and check out how today’s tough trading conditions have percolated down into the various ASX sectors.

Winners and losers

Despite the market’s bad mood this Thursday, there were plenty of sectors that were spared from a sell-down.

But first, it was mining stocks that got slammed the hardest today. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) ended up crashing 1.48% lower.

Gold shares had another rough one too, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) tumbling 1.24%.

We can say the same for real estate investment trusts (REITs). The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) sank 1.1% by the closing bell.

Financial stocks were a little better, though, as illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ)’s 0.15% slip.

Turning to the green sectors now, energy shares had a blowout. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) ended up surging 1.67% higher.

Utilities stocks also ran hot, with the S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) soaring 1.28%.

Consumer staples shares were solid. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) galloped 0.97% higher this session.

Tech stocks were in demand too, as you can see by the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ)’s 0.92% bounce.

Communications shares fared decently. The S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) added 0.89% to its total today.

As did consumer discretionary stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) advancing 0.58%.

Healthcare shares stayed afloat. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) lifted 0.13% this Thursday.

Finally, industrial stocks got over the line, evident from the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ)’s 0.12% bump.

Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

Today’s top stock was building supplies company Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU). Fletcher shares rocketed 7.55% this session to $2.99 each.

This followed the stock releasing some updated earnings guidance, which investors clearly appreciated.

Here’s how the other winners pulled up at the kerb: 

ASX-listed company	Share price	Price change
Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)	$2.99	7.55%
Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)	$20.14	5.56%
New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC)	$5.22	5.45%
Infratil Ltd (ASX: IFT)	$12.90	4.12%
Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)	$2.10	3.96%
Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA)	$2.29	3.62%
Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)	$44.49	3.47%
SRG Global Ltd (ASX: SRG)	$3.61	2.56%
Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)	$2.87	2.50%
Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)	$23.20	2.47%

Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary that shows which companies made big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Is the ASX 200 heading for a third straight fall as oil prices jump?
• 3 ASX 200 shares with 50% to 100% upside in FY27
• Why are Fletcher Building shares flying 7% higher today?
• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa and Megaport. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa and Srg Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.