ASX bank shares have been one of the market’s favourite hiding spots for years. But after a huge run in the past five years, one major broker thinks investors may be overstaying their welcome.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has slapped sell ratings on three of Australia’s biggest banks – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

The common theme? Valuations have raced ahead of fundamentals.

In other words, the broker isn’t questioning whether these are great businesses. It simply believes investors are paying too much for them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

If Morgan Stanley had a least-favourite ASX bank share, CBA would probably wear the crown. In 2026, CBA shares have risen 4.7% in 2026 to $168.11 but are down 6% over 12 months.

The broker has a target price of $125 on CBA shares, implying around 26% downside from current levels.

Why so bearish? The biggest issue is valuation. CBA trades on the richest price-to-earnings multiple of any major Australian bank despite operating in a mature, highly competitive market.

Morgan Stanley also sees pressure on net interest margins, slowing earnings growth and limited upside from here after years of strong share price performance.

That doesn’t mean CBA is suddenly a bad business. Far from it.

It remains Australia’s largest bank, with market-leading positions in home lending, deposits and digital banking. It also consistently delivers industry-leading profitability, strong capital generation and fully franked dividends.

Quality isn’t the problem. The price investors are paying for that quality is.

Westpac Banking Corp

Westpac shares have also enjoyed a solid run, climbing 4.6% over the past month. They’re still down 6% this year, but remain almost 9% higher than a year ago.

Morgan Stanley believes the stock could fall around 13%, assigning a price target of $31.50.

The main risks for this ASX bank share are margin pressure, fierce competition for mortgages and deposits, and limited earnings growth as key risks. Banks continue to fight aggressively for customers, making it harder to grow profits without sacrificing pricing.

Still, Westpac has plenty going for it. Its large retail banking franchise provides stable earnings, while ongoing investments in technology and simplification should gradually improve efficiency.

Like its peers, it also offers an attractive, fully franked dividend that continues to appeal to income-focused investors.

National Australia Bank

NAB has been the strongest performer of the trio recently, jumping 9% over the past month.

Even so, Morgan Stanley isn’t buying the rally of the ASX bank share. Its $34.50 price target suggests roughly 12% downside from current levels.

The broker believes business banking competition is intensifying, while slowing economic growth could eventually weigh on business lending demand and bad debts. Rising operating costs also remain a challenge.

On the positive side, NAB arguably boasts Australia’s strongest business banking franchise. Its deep relationships with small and medium-sized businesses provide a competitive advantage that’s difficult to replicate.

Combined with a solid balance sheet and dependable dividend payments, NAB remains a high-quality bank despite the broker’s concerns.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley’s message is clear: great businesses don’t always make great investments when expectations become too optimistic.

For long-term investors already holding these ASX bank shares, there’s little reason to panic. But for those thinking of buying today, it may be worth asking whether too much good news is already reflected in the share prices.

The post Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• I’d buy these 5 ASX dividend investments for retirement income
• These ASX shares could generate $10,000 per year in passive income

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX 200 is dominated by two blue-chip companies:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

These companies are the largest ASX-listed stocks by market cap. For this reason, they make up a fundamental part of many investors’ portfolios.

You might own these shares without even knowing it 

Many Australians own shares in BHP and Commonwealth Bank without ever buying them directly. 

This is because their superannuation funds and many ASX-listed ETFs automatically invest in the largest companies on the Australian share market. 

Since BHP and Commonwealth Bank are among the largest companies in the ASX, they’re common holdings in diversified super funds and broad-market ETFs, meaning millions of Australians have exposure to these shares simply through their retirement savings or index investments.

According to a recent report, these two companies account for almost 20% of the ASX 200 index. 

So if you own an ASX 200 or 300 tracking ETF, the performance of CBA and BHP shares have a big impact on the performance of your portfolio. 

A wide gap in 2026

Despite the two companies being vital parts of portfolios, they have performed very differently so far this year. 

BHP shares have risen by 24% year to date, while CBA shares are up just 4%. 

BHP’s 2026 rally has been driven by genuine structural tailwinds. 

Copper prices have surged on electrification, AI-driven data centre demand, and grid upgrades. For the first time in the company’s history, copper now contributes more than half of group earnings. 

A resilient iron ore price has added further support, giving BHP two strong earnings engines rather than one and thanks to the operating leverage inherent in mining, that extra revenue flows largely to the bottom line and the dividend. 

Meanwhile, CBA’s flat performance reflects a different dynamic: the bank continues to deliver solid results, with growing cash earnings and healthy lending volumes, but it already trades at a significant valuation premium to its big four peers. 

So are these shares a buy? Here is the glass half full and glass half empty case for both.

The bull and bear case

For those looking for a reason to buy BHP shares, the bull case is simple: Copper and iron ore prices are strong, and copper demand looks set to keep growing thanks to AI, data centres, and electrification. 

However on the flip side, BHP shares have already risen 50% in the last 12 months. 

This means much of the good news may be priced in. Furthermore, a pullback in copper or iron ore prices, or rising costs on projects could quickly compress margins.

Meanwhile, for CBA shares optimists would argue CBA’s premium valuation is earned through best-in-class execution, a dominant deposit franchise, superior technology investment, and consistent market share gains in a stable banking sector. 

However, bears see a stock priced for perfection, trading well above peers. 

This suggests limited room for further upside – and outsized downside risk if growth disappoints or Australian housing conditions deteriorate.

The post The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• China’s CPI and PPI data drops today. Here is the potential impact for these ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX consumer discretionary stock Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) soared 10% yesterday. 

Jumbo Interactive operates Oz Lotteries, a reseller of digital lottery tickets (e.g., Powerball, Oz Lotto) in Australia, and provides lottery software platforms and lottery management expertise to government and charity lotteries, primarily in Australia, the UK, and Canada.

Investors were jumping on board after the company released an updated FY26 outlook.

The 10% rise was a welcome change for investors as the lottery company has seen its share price fall almost 40% year to date.

What did the company report?

Yesterday, the consumer discretionary company provided an update to its FY26 Outlook ahead of the scheduled release of its FY26 results on 27 August 2026.

• Dream UK: EBITDA for the 8.5-month period has been revised down to £7.0-7.3m (previously £8.0-8.3m).
• Dream US: EBITDA for the 8-month period has been upgraded to US$5.2-5.5m (prev. US$2.7m-3.0m).

Dream UK and Dream US are lottery businesses that Jumbo Interactive has acquired. 

What is Bell Potter’s view?

Following the announcement, Bell Potter provided updated guidance on the consumer discretionary stock. 

Commenting on the release, Bell Potter said the downgrade of Dream UK reflects increased business investment during the founder transition period, new market-testing initiatives, and seasonality. 

Despite this, the business remains on a strong trajectory with expected annualised year-on-year growth of between 20% and 25%.

Meanwhile, commenting on the Dream US update, the broker said this strong performance was driven by an increased number of draws (29 draws in FY26e vs 16 previously) and favourable draw timing. 

JIN will migrate Dream US onto the Jumbo Lottery Platform (JLP) and a new app in 1Q27. We are pleased that JIN is already seeing revenue synergies in this business and are incrementally more confident of further synergies following JLP integration.

Minimal upside for ASX consumer discretionary stock

Despite the 10% jump in share price yesterday, Bell Potter appears to see this as a one off spike rather than a sign of further growth. 

The broker has retained its hold recommendation on the ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

It has slightly raised its price target to $7.20 (previously $7.10). 

From yesterday’s closing price of $7.18, this indicates little to no upside in the next 12 months. 

Although we are encouraged with the improvement in Dream US and Stride, we continue to see risks to market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock.

The post Is this ASX consumer discretionary stock a buy after jumping 10% yesterday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Top broker tips 37% upside for this exciting ASX healthcare stock
• Broker tips 20% and 23% upside for these 2 ASX stocks
• Amplitude Energy shares could be set to soar 90%: Expert
• What is Bell Potter saying about A2 Milk shares after its results?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.