Lithium shares have had another turbulent year to date, with the analyst team at Morgans noting that ASX lithium company share prices ran up as prices peaked in May, and have subsequently fallen back.

ASX lithium shares in focus

Three major broking houses in Morgans, UBS, and Macquarie have issued research notes on the lithium sector this week, with UBS saying they expect Australian lithium companies to generate strong cash flow over the June quarter, “as stronger realised lithium prices drive robust margins”.

They added:

With lithium prices recovering sharply since mid-CY25, producers have moved quickly to revisit and accelerate growth initiatives, although we believe the market is underestimating the capital required to deliver the next expansion phase. Concerns build around rising battery inventories, weak China NEV sales, an accelerating / uncertain supply response, though we continue to believe the market fundamentals remain strong and remain overweight lithium.

Macquarie notes that there remains limited visibility of the expansion of the major Chinese producer Jianxiawo and, therefore, its effect on the market.

Macquarie said they see significant uncertainty around the supply and demand outlook for CY27.

They added:

While future supply additions are highly visible, we believe the market may be underestimating project delays, commissioning risks and ramp-up challenges.

Which ASX lithium shares do the experts like?

Macquarie’s top pick in the sector is IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), with a price target of $10.50.

Other companies it had assigned an outperform rating to include PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), PMET Ltd (ASX: PMT), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Wildcat Resources Ltd (ASX: WC8), and Global Lithium Ltd (ASX: GL1).

In contrast, Morgans has a hold recommendation on PLS shares, preferring Liontown Resources, which it has an accumulate rating on and a price target of $1.70 on, compared to $1.36 currently.

Morgans also has an accumulate rating on Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), with a $68 price target compared to $56.65 currently.

UBS also has a neutral rating on PLS shares, and buys on IGO, Liontown, PMET, and Elevra.

Morgans noted that the recent pullback in lithium prices was likely a short-term correction.

They added:

We see this recent sell-off as the market pricing in a step-change in near-term supply, not an expectation that the commodity is going to experience a severe sell off and enter another downcycle. Rather, we think investors have concluded that the probability of another leg is now considerably lower, given the CATL and Zimbabwe supply catalysts, plus incremental Australian supply coming back online. In our view, the equity rally through 1Q/2Q26 pushed several names ahead of what we’d consider fair value on a through-cycle price deck, and this correction is best read as a re-rating back toward more appropriate valuations, not a loss of confidence in sector fundamentals.   

The post What are the top picks in the ASX lithium sector right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) are trading higher after a research report from Macquarie teased the idea of the oil and gas major being a takeover target.

US major rumoured to be on the hunt

The research report issued on Friday morning argued that the Strait of Hormuz crisis has de-rated Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets for now, and arguably permanently.

Macquarie said this could mean there is more pressure for mergers and acquisitions in the LNG space, “making Woodside a viable target”.

The broker is arguing that consolidation in the energy sector will continue, and notes that Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) missed out on buying assets in Guyana 12 months ago.

Quoting Bloomberg as a source, Macquarie writes that ExxonMobil is “screening LNG acquisitions including Woodside”.

They added:

With US shale consolidations done and opportunities maturing, international deals make sense again, particularly in the LNG segment (post Strait of Hormuz).

Woodside is an attractive candidate, they said, with its M&A strategy over the past five years building a company that aligned strategically with what ExxonMobil would be after.

Macquarie said ExxonMobil would have to bring an attractive offer to the table, adding, “In our view, a meaningful premium that would be much harder to deliver as a standalone entity could increase the likelihood of board engagement”.

Hurdles to the deal could be board reluctance and the company’s large retail shareholder base, Macquarie said.

Woodside Energy shares looking like a good buy

The broker has raised its price target on Woodside shares by 9% to $32.80 per share, and if a 20% weighting for M&A activity was included, this would rise to $38.50.

Woodside shares are currently changing hands for $30.29, up 2.7% on the day. The company is valued at $56.06 billion.

RBC Capital Markets is also a fan of the stock, saying in a research note earlier this week that Woodside was its top large-cap pick in the energy sector, “based on its strong longer-term growth profile, and potential to generate more near-term higher priced gas hub sales and LNG trading volumes due to the Middle East conflict”.

They added:

Woodside’s 2Q sales revenue is expected to be supported by higher crude and … commodity pricing, despite production volumes being affected by the Pluto LNG project scheduled turnaround. We expect the volatile pricing environment to create opportunity for relatively high gas hub sales and LNG trading volumes quarter on quarter. Woodside’s production growth outlook remains highly attractive, with Scarborough (Pluto LNG T-2) on stream by the end of 2026, followed by Trion oil in 2028 and Louisiana LNG in 2029.

RBC has a price target of $34.50 on Woodside shares.

The post Could Woodside Energy be a takeover target? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• With Hormuz closed, is there an opening to buy Woodside shares?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to Australian financial services companies, at the moment it can pay to look beyond the big four banks when looking for outsized returns.

The brokers at Macquarie have this week issued reports into three ASX finance companies which they believe will perform well over the next 12 months.

Let’s see who they like.

Australian Finance Group Ltd (ASX: AFG)

Shares in this company have fallen 22.4% over the past 12 months, but the team at Macquarie think they will tick upwards over the next year.

AFG recently said in a statement to the ASX that AFG mortgage brokers had lodged $28.1 billion worth of home loans in the fourth quarter, which was the strongest June quarter on record.

AFG Chief Executive Officer David Bailey said regarding the result:

Following the strongest March quarter on record, some easing in June was expected, especially after the Federal Budget announcements on 12 May and during a tightening rate cycle. Despite divergence across states and shifting borrower sentiment mid-quarter, we delivered positive year-on-year growth and a record-high average loan size. We believe the fiscal policy changes announced during the quarter will represent a period of readjustment rather than a structural shift in underlying demand.

Macquarie said they were forecasting some headwinds for AFG as the impact of tax policy changes in the Federal Budget rolled through, and reduced their price target on the company from $3.01 to $2.26.

This remains well above the current price of $1.64.

Navigator Global Investments Ltd (ASX: NGI)

Macquarie has reinitiated coverage of this stock with an outperform rating after the company released a quarterly update earlier this week.

In that report, the company said assets under management were up 6% to US$33.6 billion, while assets under management in its Lighthouse Partners division were up 8% to more than US$20 billion.

The company said:

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, interest rate volatility and changing market conditions continue to create both opportunities and challenges for alternative investment strategies. Most of Lighthouse Partners’ strategies performed strongly during the quarter and several of NGI Strategic’s Partner Firms delivered strong performance on an absolute and relative basis during the quarter.

Macquarie said the company had a strong platform entering FY27, and the broker has a price target on the company of $3.28 compared to the current price of $2.44.

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

Macquarie said Netwealth’s fund inflows of $3.09 billion were slightly below consensus, while total funds under administration of $134.3 billion were in line with expectations.

The broker has maintained an outperform rating on the stock due to “robust” earnings per share growth.

Macquarie’s share price target for Netwealth is $32.25 compared to $23.79 currently.

The post Macquarie tips three ASX finance companies to return better than 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.