The team at Morgans has released a number of broker notes this week covering well-known ASX shares.

Let’s see if its analysts rate the following three shares as buys, holds, or sells. Here’s what you need to know:

Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL)

Morgans was pleased with this investment platform provider’s contract win with Morgan Stanley. It believes this is a testament to the quality of its offering.

However, it isn’t quite enough for a buy rating. Morgans has put an accumulate rating (between buy and hold) and $27.50 price target on Netwealth’s shares. It commented:

NWL’s recent win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management represents strong early validation of NWL’s iHIN offering and expansion into the broker segment of the market, which represents a net-flows tailwind into FY27-FY30. We see NWL’s incremental investment into FY27 as a doubling down on its strategy to drive further long-term scale benefits. We reiterate our Accumulate rating with a A$27.50 PT.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

The broker has initiated coverage on Qantas shares this week. It highlights that FY 2027 is going to be a transitional year, with FY 2028 expected to be higher growth. 

As a result, Morgans has put an accumulate rating and $11.50 price target on the airline operator. It said:

Qantas’s post-COVID balance sheet strengthening and cost discipline have positioned it to absorb the current fuel cost shock and consumer softness with genuine resilience. We forecast 2H26 PBT to be down on pcp as fuel and economic conditions bite, with FY27 forecast to deliver a moderate uplift. We view FY27 as a transition year for Qantas with higher growth expected from FY28 onwards as oil prices, refining margins and demand normalise. Structural growth drivers (fleet renewal, Project Sunrise, Loyalty scaling toward FY30 target) remain intact. We initiate coverage with an ACCUMULATE rating and an A$11.50ps price target.

Silver Mines Ltd (ASX: SVL)

Another ASX share that Morgans has initiated coverage on its silver developer Silver Mines.

It is a fan of the company and sees significant potential in its Bowdens Silver Project in New South Wales. This has seen the broker put a speculative buy rating and 40 cents price target on Silver Mines shares, which is more than triple its current share price. It explains:

Silver Mines is advancing the 100%-owned Bowdens Silver Project in the Central West region of NSW, Australia’s largest undeveloped silver project and one of the largest primary silver development assets globally, underpinned by a 334Moz AgEq Mineral Resource and 71.7Moz Ag Ore Reserve. Our thesis rests on what we view as an increasingly compelling asymmetry in Bowdens’ risk-reward profile, underpinned by exceptional leverage to a strengthening silver price, a technically mature development plan and a more clearly defined permitting pathway. Despite this improving outlook, the stock continues to trade at a material discount to our assessed intrinsic value. 

We see the improving silver market, permitting progress and the approaching DFS collectively driving a period of meaningful value creation. We initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and a target price of A$0.40 per share.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Netwealth, Silver Mines, and Qantas shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX bank shares have been one of the market’s favourite hiding spots for years. But after a huge run in the past five years, one major broker thinks investors may be overstaying their welcome.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has slapped sell ratings on three of Australia’s biggest banks – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

The common theme? Valuations have raced ahead of fundamentals.

In other words, the broker isn’t questioning whether these are great businesses. It simply believes investors are paying too much for them.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

If Morgan Stanley had a least-favourite ASX bank share, CBA would probably wear the crown. In 2026, CBA shares have risen 4.7% in 2026 to $168.11 but are down 6% over 12 months.

The broker has a target price of $125 on CBA shares, implying around 26% downside from current levels.

Why so bearish? The biggest issue is valuation. CBA trades on the richest price-to-earnings multiple of any major Australian bank despite operating in a mature, highly competitive market.

Morgan Stanley also sees pressure on net interest margins, slowing earnings growth and limited upside from here after years of strong share price performance.

That doesn’t mean CBA is suddenly a bad business. Far from it.

It remains Australia’s largest bank, with market-leading positions in home lending, deposits and digital banking. It also consistently delivers industry-leading profitability, strong capital generation and fully franked dividends.

Quality isn’t the problem. The price investors are paying for that quality is.

Westpac Banking Corp

Westpac shares have also enjoyed a solid run, climbing 4.6% over the past month. They’re still down 6% this year, but remain almost 9% higher than a year ago.

Morgan Stanley believes the stock could fall around 13%, assigning a price target of $31.50.

The main risks for this ASX bank share are margin pressure, fierce competition for mortgages and deposits, and limited earnings growth as key risks. Banks continue to fight aggressively for customers, making it harder to grow profits without sacrificing pricing.

Still, Westpac has plenty going for it. Its large retail banking franchise provides stable earnings, while ongoing investments in technology and simplification should gradually improve efficiency.

Like its peers, it also offers an attractive, fully franked dividend that continues to appeal to income-focused investors.

National Australia Bank

NAB has been the strongest performer of the trio recently, jumping 9% over the past month.

Even so, Morgan Stanley isn’t buying the rally of the ASX bank share. Its $34.50 price target suggests roughly 12% downside from current levels.

The broker believes business banking competition is intensifying, while slowing economic growth could eventually weigh on business lending demand and bad debts. Rising operating costs also remain a challenge.

On the positive side, NAB arguably boasts Australia’s strongest business banking franchise. Its deep relationships with small and medium-sized businesses provide a competitive advantage that’s difficult to replicate.

Combined with a solid balance sheet and dependable dividend payments, NAB remains a high-quality bank despite the broker’s concerns.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley’s message is clear: great businesses don’t always make great investments when expectations become too optimistic.

For long-term investors already holding these ASX bank shares, there’s little reason to panic. But for those thinking of buying today, it may be worth asking whether too much good news is already reflected in the share prices.

The post Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX 200 is dominated by two blue-chip companies:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

These companies are the largest ASX-listed stocks by market cap. For this reason, they make up a fundamental part of many investors’ portfolios.

You might own these shares without even knowing it 

Many Australians own shares in BHP and Commonwealth Bank without ever buying them directly. 

This is because their superannuation funds and many ASX-listed ETFs automatically invest in the largest companies on the Australian share market. 

Since BHP and Commonwealth Bank are among the largest companies in the ASX, they’re common holdings in diversified super funds and broad-market ETFs, meaning millions of Australians have exposure to these shares simply through their retirement savings or index investments.

According to a recent report, these two companies account for almost 20% of the ASX 200 index. 

So if you own an ASX 200 or 300 tracking ETF, the performance of CBA and BHP shares have a big impact on the performance of your portfolio. 

A wide gap in 2026

Despite the two companies being vital parts of portfolios, they have performed very differently so far this year. 

BHP shares have risen by 24% year to date, while CBA shares are up just 4%. 

BHP’s 2026 rally has been driven by genuine structural tailwinds. 

Copper prices have surged on electrification, AI-driven data centre demand, and grid upgrades. For the first time in the company’s history, copper now contributes more than half of group earnings. 

A resilient iron ore price has added further support, giving BHP two strong earnings engines rather than one and thanks to the operating leverage inherent in mining, that extra revenue flows largely to the bottom line and the dividend. 

Meanwhile, CBA’s flat performance reflects a different dynamic: the bank continues to deliver solid results, with growing cash earnings and healthy lending volumes, but it already trades at a significant valuation premium to its big four peers. 

So are these shares a buy? Here is the glass half full and glass half empty case for both.

The bull and bear case

For those looking for a reason to buy BHP shares, the bull case is simple: Copper and iron ore prices are strong, and copper demand looks set to keep growing thanks to AI, data centres, and electrification. 

However on the flip side, BHP shares have already risen 50% in the last 12 months. 

This means much of the good news may be priced in. Furthermore, a pullback in copper or iron ore prices, or rising costs on projects could quickly compress margins.

Meanwhile, for CBA shares optimists would argue CBA’s premium valuation is earned through best-in-class execution, a dominant deposit franchise, superior technology investment, and consistent market share gains in a stable banking sector. 

However, bears see a stock priced for perfection, trading well above peers. 

This suggests limited room for further upside – and outsized downside risk if growth disappoints or Australian housing conditions deteriorate.

The post The bull and bear case for CBA and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Expert warns: These ASX bank shares could disappoint in FY27
• How much do I need in my superannuation to get $52,000 per year in passive income?
• Which ASX 200 sectors paid the highest dividend yields in FY26?
• Dump ’em! Morgan Stanley slaps sell ratings on 5 ASX 200 shares
• China’s CPI and PPI data drops today. Here is the potential impact for these ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.