On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a subdued session but managed to finish slightly higher. The benchmark index rose 1.6 points to 8,724.5 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Friday and end the week on a high? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Friday despite a mixed night of trade in the United States. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 52 points or 0.6% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 2.15%, but the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor finish to the week after oil prices fell again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.7% to US$68.10 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.6% to US$71.13 a barrel. US-Iran peace deal optimism has weighed on oil prices.

Buy Netwealth shares

Bell Potter thinks Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares are undervalued. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on the investment platform provider’s shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 38%. It said: “Our Buy recommendation is unchanged. NWL no longer trades as a leveraged play on financial markets, which is interesting. Given its increased scale, we would expect the opposite, with free carry having a bigger impact than flows. A shift back into global growth assets should also be supportive.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) could have a good finish to the week after the gold price charged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.1% to US$4,126.1 an ounce. This was driven by the release of US payrolls data, which the market appears to believe wasn’t supportive of interest rate hikes.

Buy Chalice shares

Bell Potter has also recommended Chalice Mining Ltd (ASX: CHN) shares this morning. According to the note, the broker has reaffirmed its speculative buy rating and $4.00 price target on the mineral exploration company’s shares. It said: “CHN’s Gonneville project continues to offer exposure to a globally significant, critical minerals PGE-Ni-Cu-Co Project in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. It has designation at both State and Federal levels as a Major Project, conferring dedicated co-ordination and support for the project through statutory approvals processes. CHN is sufficiently funded to reach FID in 1HCY28.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) uranium stock Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) has lost a fair bit of ground since the end of April.

On 23 April, Bannerman shares closed trading for $4.74. Earlier this week, shares were changing hands for $3.14 apiece, putting the share price down 33.7% in just over two months.

While that’s been a painful slide for existing shareholders, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable believes this the retrace now presents an opportunity to buy Bannerman shares at a long-term bargain price (courtesy of The Bull).

Should I buy the ASX 300 uranium stock today?

“This uranium development company’s flagship Etango project is based in Namibia,” Gable said.

Citing the first reason you might want to buy Bannerman Energy shares today, he noted, “We believe the uranium sector presents a bright outlook as we expect demand to outpace supply for the next several years.”

Then there’s the recent joint venture agreement the ASX 300 uranium stock inked with the China National Nuclear Corporation, first announced to the market on 13 February.

Commenting on the JV Etango funding deal on the day, Bannerman Energy executive chairman Brandon Munro said:

By enabling the debt-free construction of Etango, this solution maximises flexibility and dramatically derisks the construction and ramp-up phases of project execution.

It also delivers us a Tier-1 cornerstone offtake partner on genuine and market terms, ensuring Bannerman remains strongly exposed to future uranium price upside potential.

Gable pointed out that the market doesn’t appear to be pricing in the benefits of the JV deal. He noted:

Despite BMN de-risking its main resource by announcing a joint venture with the China National Nuclear Corporation, the share price has retreated along with many other stocks in the market.

Which brings us to the third reason Gable has a buy recommendation on Bannerman Energy shares.

“In our view, this presents a buying opportunity as BMN should be leveraged to any upside in the uranium price,” he concluded.

What’s the latest from Bannerman Energy?

Bannerman released its March quarter update on 29 April.

Commenting on the progress being made at Etango, Bannerman CEO Gavin Chamberlain said:

Bannerman continued to progress Etango’s early works program during the March 2026 quarter, with key construction activities, detailed design and procurement advancing in line with schedule and budget.

The ASX 300 uranium stock reported that its site contractor workforce numbered more than 560 personnel at the quarter end, and the project’s bulk earthworks contract was 66.5% complete.

Turning to the balance sheet, as at 31 March, Bannerman Energy had a cash balance of $69.9 million and liquid assets of $12.7 million.

The post 3 reasons to buy this beaten down ASX 300 uranium stock today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have had a difficult year.

Down approximately 10% year-to-date, NAB has materially underperformed the broader ASX 200 in 2026. The company has shed billions in market capitalisation even as the bank continued to pay consistent fully franked dividends to its shareholders.

This week, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable added his name to the growing list of analysts expressing concern about the outlook, issuing a sell alert on NAB shares with a frank assessment of the risks building into FY27.

The question for the millions of Australians who own NAB shares, directly or through their superannuation funds, is whether those concerns are already reflected in the price or whether there is more pain ahead.

What the analyst said

Gable’s sell case rests on three specific concerns about NAB’s positioning heading into FY27.

The first is margin pressure.

Higher deposit competition continues to eat into the spread between what NAB earns on its lending and what it pays to depositors.

This is a structural headwind for all four major banks, and one that hits NAB particularly hard given its business banking focus.

The second is credit risk.

NAB’s first-half FY26 result saw the bank increase its collective provisions by $300 million. This is a signal that management is preparing for potential deterioration in credit quality across its business lending book as higher interest rates and a weaker economy take their toll.

The third concern goes to NAB’s core competitive advantage.

NAB has long been regarded as the premier business bank in Australia, with deeper relationships and stronger market share in commercial lending than any of its peers.

Gable cautioned that this strength is what makes NAB most exposed in the current environment.

He said:

In a weaker economy, NAB is particularly vulnerable to softer earnings growth due to its higher focus on business banking.

Summarising his sell recommendation, he concluded:

Despite a significant share price fall, NAB valuations aren’t cheap, leaving the stock exposed to downside risk.

The numbers behind the concern

NAB’s first-half FY26 result, released on 4 May, told a story of a bank managing its way through difficult conditions rather than growing through them.

Cash earnings (excluding notable items) rose just 2.3% year-on-year to $3.59 billion, while underlying profit was up 6.4%.

The credit impairment charge of $706 million was partially tied to potential stress from the Middle East conflict.

The bank maintained its interim dividend at 85 cents per share, a sign of stability but also confirmation that earnings growth has slowed to a level that does not support a dividend increase.

The consensus analyst picture is bleak relative to NAB’s recent history.

Of the nine most recent rating calls, four are sell, three are hold, and two are buy. This is an unusually bearish spread for one of Australia’s largest companies.

The bull case for NAB shares still exists

Not every analyst shares Gable’s view.

UBS retains a buy rating on NAB shares with a price target of $48.50, implying upside of approximately 35% from current levels.

The broker cited NAB’s improving net interest margin and business banking position as reasons the selloff has overshot.

At approximately 15 times forecast FY26 earnings, NAB is also considerably cheaper than CBA, which trades at approximately 26 times.

The consensus forecast for the FY26 dividend is $1.70 per share, fully franked.

This implies a forward grossed-up yield of approximately 6.4% at current prices, which remains attractive on an absolute basis for income investors.

That yield, and the relative valuation discount to CBA, forms the core of the remaining bull argument.

The honest assessment for NAB shares

The headwinds Gable identifies are material.

Margin pressure, rising provisions, and business banking credit risk are real concerns, and were reflected in the bank’s own first-half result.

However, a 10% share price this year already prices in a meaningful amount of that negative expectation.

The gap between UBS’s $48.50 target and the current price suggests the market has, if anything, possibly overreacted.

But that conclusion depends on whether credit quality holds up and whether NAB’s business banking franchise continues to outperform its peers even in a weaker economy.

Foolish takeaway

NAB shares are not obviously cheap even after a 10% fall.

The headwinds the bank faces into FY27 are material. But a cheaper entry point, a fully franked yield approaching 6.5%, and a valuation discount to CBA all suggest the market has already priced in a significant portion of the bad news.

Investors who already hold NAB shares for income purposes have a defensible reason to stay patient.

Investors considering a new position should weigh the attractive yield against the credit quality uncertainty that FY27 will ultimately resolve.

The post A leading analyst is forecasting growing headwinds for NAB shares. Should investors be worried? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.