Is the CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price a buy?

In the initial stages of the coronavirus share market sell off the CSL share price remained strong in Australian dollar terms as the US dollar strengthened.

But over the past week the CSL share price has actually fallen by 7% despite the share market strengthening.

CSL was seen as a bastion of safety with its healthcare services. It’s the number one in global plasma therapies and the number two for flu vaccines. Those are essential services. 

That’s why the CSL share price didn’t drop anywhere near as much as shares like National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) or Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN).

But we saw the Australian dollar weaken to as low as $0.57 compared to the US dollar during March 2020. The Aussie dollar has since strengthened to $0.68. That makes a big difference when looking at CSL’s earnings which are reported (and a large portion is generated) in US dollars.

CSL recently announced new debt facilities to strengthen its debt profile.

Is it a good time to buy CSL at this share price?

The healthcare giant is aiming for a net profit in FY20 of between US$2.11 billion to US$2.17 billion. This would be another solid result after years of impressive growth already. The company continues to invest heavily into research and development to ensure that it continues to produce the new needed products for people. New treatments could make a big difference to the world. It’s one of many businesses looking to find a coronavirus treatment. 

I think it makes a lot of sense to invest in CSL when the Australian dollar is so strong. It’s certainly not cheap, so I wouldn’t want to buy a lot. But I’d be willing to be some today.

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Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is relatively flat today after a week of solid gains – up 0.21% at the time of writing to 5,831.3 points. If you’ve been watching the progress of the ASX 200 over the last month, you might be getting excited. That elusive 6,000-point threshold seems tantalisingly close at these levels.

As is normally the case, our market rally is being mirrored over in the United States of America. Since 23 March 2020, the S&P 500 Index (which measures the performance of the 500 largest companies in America) has rallied over 36%. The ASX 200 has rallied by over 28% since the same day (coincidentally the market bottom for both indexes).

An ‘unloved but welcome’ share market rally?

But according to MarketWatch, analysts from US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs are calling this an “unloved but welcome” share market rally. Goldman’s analysts have set a ‘target’ for the S&P 500 of 3,000 points by the end of the year.

This morning (our time), the S&P 500 closed at 3,055.73 points. This means Goldman is assuming the markets stay more or less flat at these levels for the rest of the year.

So how does Goldman Sachs justify this semi-bearish target? The analysts describe the recent rally we’ve just experienced as a “remarkable journey”. But it’s also one they see as most likely stopping due to “numerous medical, economic and political risks dot the investment landscape”.

They postulate that “in the near-term, the index could move to 3,200 but any bumps in the road to economic reopening or further political risks could send the index to 2,750”.

As such, Goldman’s analysts are predicting that the US share market rally has already priced in a strong economic recovery.  Thus, the fulfilment of this prediction will not result in markedly higher share prices, rather providing “validation” of the current levels.

What would this mean for ASX shares?

As I alluded to earlier, the ASX 200 is more connected to the S&P 500 and the broader US markets than many investors realise. If Goldman Sachs’ predictions turn out to be accurate, I think it’s a reasonable conclusion to make that the ASX 200 will also be relatively flat for the rest of the year, as most of the concerns Goldman has can be translated effectively to the ASX 200 as well.

But, of course, successful investing isn’t about trying to predict where the markets will be in six month’s time in my view. It’s about finding high-quality companies at great prices that you can hold as long-term investments. Whether or not Goldman Sachs’ analysis is a means to this end is up to you!

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Decmil Group Limited (ASX: DCG) share price has been cut in half today after shares resumed trading on the ASX for the first time since mid-May.

Decmil offers a range of services to the Australian resources, infrastructure, transport and energy sectors, specialising in engineering, construction, and maintenance. 

The company has a blue-chip customer base across its core markets, which includes big ASX names like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

Why the Decmil share price has been cut in half

At the end of last month, Decmil announced a $50 million equity raising to strengthen its balance sheet and provide working capital to fund its pipeline of opportunities.

The equity raising is being undertaken via a pro-rata entitlement offer on the basis of 4.2 new shares for every 1 existing share – at an issue price of 5 cents per share. This represents a 75% discount to Decmil’s last trading price of 20 cents per share on 18 May.

As a result, Decmil shares were punished when they were reinstated to official quotation this morning. As part of being reinstated, Decmil announced the successful completion of the bookbuild for the institutional component of its equity raising.

The company received $30 million of commitments during the institutional bookbuild, along with commitments to partially underwrite up to ~$11 million of the retail component.

Decmil will issue around 600 million ordinary shares under the institutional offer. These shares are expected to commence trading on Wednesday, 10 June 2020.

With the retail entitlement offer being partially underwritten, the equity raising will raise a minimum of $41 million and a maximum of approximately $50 million.

The retail offer is expected to open on Friday, 5 June 2020 and close on Wednesday, 17 June 2020.

Management commentary

Commenting on the rationale behind the equity raising last week, CEO Dickie Dique said:

“Decmil had some significant challenges as we entered 2020, including a tight balance sheet. This capital raising addresses that issue and will set us up well to continue pursuing and delivering profitable new contract opportunities”.

“With a reset balance sheet, ongoing contract wins and a refreshed structure, Decmil will be well placed to continue our business turnaround. We also expect that significant infrastructure spending in Australia over the next few years will further drive this turnaround and return Decmil to robust profitability and strong shareholder returns,” he added.

At the time of writing, the Decmil share price is sitting 50% lower for the day at 10 cents per share after plunging 62.5% at the open.

More reading

• 3 founder-led ASX shares to buy for strong long-term returns
• Zip Co share price rockets 44% higher on U.S. expansion news
• Is the CSL share price a buy?
• Could Goldman Sachs’ 2020 predictions for the US share market spell the end of the ASX 200s remarkable rise?
• The 3 ASX tech stocks that helped this fund manager outperform in May

Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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