A falling share price can create one of the hardest decisions in investing.

Should you buy more, keep holding, or cut your losses?

The answer depends on what has changed. A share price fall can create a genuine opportunity when the market has become too pessimistic about a strong business.

It can also be a warning sign when the company keeps missing expectations, burning cash, or relying on investors to fund the story.

Here is a simple way to think through it.

Start with the reason for the fall

The first step is to understand why the share price has declined.

Some falls are driven by market-wide pressure. Rising interest rates, recession fears, sector selloffs, and valuation resets can drag down good companies along with weaker ones.

Other falls are more company-specific. Earnings downgrades, weak sales, management changes, balance sheet stress, or repeated execution problems can point to deeper issues.

This distinction is important. A quality company caught in a broad selloff can become more attractive as the price falls. A company with a deteriorating business model may become riskier with every decline.

Check whether the business still has substance

The next question is whether the company still has something valuable underneath the falling share price.

This could be a strong brand, essential product, loyal customer base, high switching costs, valuable infrastructure, recurring revenue, or exposure to a market with long-term demand.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) is a useful example of a fallen share that could still justify a positive view.

Its share price has been under pressure, but the company remains a global leader in sleep apnoea treatment and connected respiratory care. The long-term need for better diagnosis, treatment, masks, devices, and patient support has not disappeared. That gives investors a real business to assess, rather than simply a share price chart to react to.

When a company still has scale, earnings power, and a large market opportunity, buying on weakness can make sense for patient investors.

Look at the numbers, not just the story

Shares often come with persuasive narratives.

Management may talk about technology, innovation, disruption, and large future markets. Those claims become far more useful when they are supported by revenue, cash flow, customer adoption, and improving economics.

This is where Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN) looks very different.

Its shares are down 16% over the past 12 months and 70% over the past five years. It has consistently been making new 52-week lows since 2022, while the company continues to talk up its technology but has delivered next to no revenue and significant dilution from share issues.

That is a warning for investors. A share can keep looking cheaper as the price falls, while the underlying business fails to build the revenue base needed to support the valuation.

Decide what would change your mind

Investors should know what they need to see before buying more or continuing to hold.

For a high-quality ASX share, that might be evidence that margins are stabilising, demand remains strong, new products are gaining traction, or management is executing well.

For a speculative company, the bar should be higher. Investors may want to see meaningful revenue, commercial contracts, less reliance on capital raisings, and proof that customers are willing to pay for the technology.

Buy, hold, or sell?

Buying more can make sense when the business remains strong, the balance sheet is sound, and the market appears too focused on short-term concerns.

Holding can be sensible when the company is still attractive but there is not enough evidence yet to increase exposure.

Selling becomes easier to justify when the company’s problems are worsening, the story is not translating into financial progress, or shareholders are being diluted while waiting for promised growth.

The best decision is rarely based on the share price fall alone. It likely comes from comparing today’s price with the quality of the business, the strength of the balance sheet, the evidence in the numbers, and the probability that the company can create value over the years ahead.

The post How to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell a fallen ASX share appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price is in focus today after the Board declared a $300 million fully franked special dividend, following recent approval from Chinese authorities to transition product registrations to a2 branded infant formula.

What did The a2 Milk Company report?

• Declared a fully franked special dividend of NZ$300 million (41.36 cents per share)
• Dividend payment set for 24 July 2026
• Ex-dividend date: 8 July 2026; record date: 9 July 2026
• Dividend carries a franking credit of 17.72 cents per share
• Triggered by China regulatory approval for a2 branded infant formula registrations

What else do investors need to know?

The special dividend comes after the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in China gave the green light to transition two China label infant formula product registrations, linked to the company’s Pokeno facility, to the a2 brand. This regulatory milestone appears to strengthen the company’s footprint in one of its largest markets.

The Board confirmed that the dividend amount has been rounded to 41.36 cents per share for communication purposes, but the actual payment will be calculated based on a gross distribution of 41.355 cents. The announcement follows a series of regulatory updates in recent months.

What did The a2 Milk Company management say?

Chair Pip Greenwood said:

With the necessary China regulatory approvals now in place, the Board is pleased to declare a $300 million special dividend. This reflects our commitment to delivering shareholder returns while maintaining disciplined capital management.

What’s next for a2 Milk Company?

Looking ahead, a2 Milk Company is set to benefit from the new regulatory approvals in China, which may underpin further growth in its infant milk formula segment. The special dividend highlights the Board’s focus on balancing shareholder returns with ongoing investment needs.

Investors will likely monitor progress in China and any future updates regarding capital management or new product registrations.

A2 Milk Company share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, a2 Milk Company shares have declined 13%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post A2 Milk declares $300 million special dividend after securing China approval appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price has been through plenty of volatility in the last few months. So, after so much has happened, it’s good to ask whether this is a good time to invest.

As the above chart shows, there have been plenty of ups and downs this year. Despite the decline since April, it’s still up more than 18% since 2026.

The question now is whether the business is good value. Let’s see what experts think.

Expert recommendations

According to CMC Invest, there have been nine analyst ratings on the business within the last three months.

Of those nine ratings, two were buy ratings, five were hold ratings, and two were sell ratings.

These ratings average out to a hold rating, though there are both positive and negative views on the business.

However, the price target may be a better indicator of whether experts think a business could deliver good returns.

Woodside share price target

A price target tells investors where an expert thinks the Woodside share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.

Of course, a price target is not a guaranteed return (or decline), it’s just what the expert thinks.

The average price target of those nine ratings is $31.39. At the time of writing, that translates into a possible rise of 12% over the next year.

But, the most optimistic price target is $36.50, implying a possible rise of 30% in the next 12 months. The lowest price target is $24.75, suggesting the Woodside share price could decline by more than 11% in the next year.

What to look at next

Woodside can’t really control energy prices, but the disruption in the Middle East could last longer than just the next few weeks – it may take a while for fuel supply and inventory to return to normal. Energy prices could rise from here, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

It’ll be very interesting to see what happens with energy prices. In the first quarter of 2026, Woodside reported that the average realised price was $63 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), up 11% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

I think the energy price could remain stronger than previously expected amid global growth of energy demand, particularly because of the growth of AI and data centres. Only so much renewable energy can be installed each year, while nuclear power is expensive to build and takes a while to complete. LNG could be important for filling in that demand gap.

Woodside is investing in new projects that will help improve its scale advantages and unlock more cash flow for the business.

It’s one of the ASX shares to keep an eye on, though there are plenty of ideas that aren’t linked to the volatility of energy prices which could be better buys.

The post Is the Woodside share price a buy in July? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Up 23% this year, should I buy Woodside shares today?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.