Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for 91 cents. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for 90.7 cents apiece, down 0.3%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.

Unfortunately for faithful stockholders, today’s underperformance isn’t a one-off. With today’s intraday move factored in, the challenger bank’s share price is down a painful 49.6% in 2026.

Most of that pain came in a single day. Namely, 25 June, when Judo shares crashed 40.4% after the bank increased its forecast full-year FY 2026 cost of risk estimates and slashed its full-year profit guidance.

And looking ahead, Investor Pulse’s Mark Elzayed believes Judo Bank could continue to struggle (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Why Judo shares could face ongoing headwinds

“This Australian lender focuses on small and medium size enterprises,” Elzayed said.

Commenting on the 25 June downgrades that sent the ASX 200 bank stock into a tailspin, Elzayed noted:

Judo recently cut profit before tax guidance in fiscal year 2026 to between $163 million and $169 million from a previous range of between $180 million and $190 million. It was primarily driven by a higher cost of risk now expected to range between $116 million and $122 million following specific provisions against three exposures across different sectors.

And while management is forecasting profit growth for FY 2027, that guidance also left investors wanting.

“Profit before tax guidance of between $210 million and $220 million in full year 2027 was below market expectations of $255.1 million,” Elzayed said.

Summarising his sell recommendation on Judo shares, he concluded, “In our view, market reaction reflects more than a one-off potential earnings downgrade. Provisioning risk remains elevated, so we retain a sell on Judo Capital.”

What did the ASX 200 bank stock’s CEO say about the downgrades?

“While today’s update is partly a result of the macro environment, it is nevertheless disappointing,” CEO Chris Bayliss said on the day Judo shares crashed 40.4%.

“Regardless, we remain confident in the strength of our underlying business and the quality of the portfolio,” he added.

Addressing the root of the profit downgrade, Bayliss said:

We continue to see strong underlying momentum in the business. Recent credit outcomes have been driven by a small number of customers, who we are actively working with. These exposures have deteriorated subsequent to the customer-by-customer review undertaken in the third quarter and reflect recent, borrower-specific developments.

The post Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Judo shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A bunch of new research notes have come out this week, with brokers issuing buy ratings on some interesting companies.

Let’s see which ones they like.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NextDC shares are flat over the past 12 months, having traded as low as $10.74 and as high as $17.93.

UBS has a price target of $22.55 on NextDC shares compared to $14.03 currently.

The broker referred to a recent announcement NextDC made to the ASX, which said that following further contract wins, NextDC’s contracted utilisation had increased by 11% to 740 megawatts.

NextDC said at the time, “the pro-forma forward order book is expected to progressively convert to billings, revenue and EBITDA over the period FY26 to FY30”.

UBS said there was “very little” detail in the update, but said it was “another substantial win”.

The broker added that it was not possible to put a number on the earnings impact, as it was unclear whether it was a neocloud or AI contract.

Alkane Resources Ltd (ASX: ALK)

UBS has actually downgraded its price target for Alkane by 40 cents to $1.75, but still has a buy rating on the gold stock, which was last changing hands for $1.35.

The broker said the company’s recently-released quarterly costs came in above their estimates, and FY27 guidance was soft.

Alkane also proposed a maiden 2-cent dividend in the recent update, having built its cash holdings to $432 million.

Managing Director Nic Earner said it was a good end to the year for the company.

He said:

It has been another great quarter for Alkane, producing 40,949 ounces of gold and 456 tonnes of antimony (42,491 ounces of gold equivalent) over the full quarter, which places full year FY26 production at 168,337 ounces of gold equivalent, in the top half of guidance.

UBS said M&A activity would remain in focus as the most viable way for the company to grow production.

The broker added:

Near term production in Tier 1 jurisdictions remains the preference, and we continue to view ALK’s holding of Medallion Metals (ASX: MM8), with its Ravensthorpe Gold Project as an interesting option.

BCI Minerals Ltd (ASX: BCI)

Shaw and Partners has a buy rating on this salt project developer, saying in a research note this week that the company was progressing well.

The broker said:

Mardie has advanced significantly since our recent initiation, achieving construction completion of 85% (82% including the crystalliser lining program), up from 81% in March. Crucially, the operation has commenced salt precipitation on schedule, exiting the initial filling phase to become an active producer with 49kt of crystallised salt on pavement at quarter end. The critical path to First Salt on Ship remains governed by natural solar evaporation and weather conditions during this early phase. Management continues to target operational readiness for FSOS by MarQCY27.

Shaw and Partners said as the project closes the gap to its first commercial harvest, “the current market valuation continues to significantly discount the tier-1 replacement value of this 60-plus year infrastructure asset. We expect a major equity re-rating as execution risks give way to structural cash flow”.

The broker has a price target of 75 cents on BCI compared to 42.75 cents currently.

The post Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy with gains of up to 75% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Nextdc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is catching investor attention this week.

At the time of writing, in Wednesday lunchtime trade, the shares are up around 1% and changing hands for $7.86 a piece.

Today’s increase follows a run of share price rises recently. Since dipping to a low of $7.04 in late June, the shares have now rebounded over 11%. 

They’re now up around 27% year to date, but are around 0.5% below the trading levels seen this time last year.

Why is everyone talking about the Santos share price?

There hasn’t been any price-sensitive news out of Santos this week.

It looks like the ASX 200 oil and gas giant’s share price is the talk of the town right now as conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate.

Santos shares gradually cooled through June and into July, off the back of expectations that the conflict was winding down. When the original peace deal broke in June, Santos fell 8% in a single session. 

But a stark reversal over the past two weeks has reinvigorated the war risk tailwinds that saw the company’s shares fly higher earlier this year. 

Escalating conflict has quickly caused a spike in oil prices, which in turn acts as a strong tailwind for Santos shares.

Trading Economics data shows that the price of WTI crude oil has now climbed past US$85 per barrel and is hovering near six-week highs as supply risks intensify across several major export routes even beyond the Middle East.

“President Donald Trump dismissed the likelihood of imminent talks with Iran while warning of additional strikes and pledging retaliation if Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted shipping through the Red Sea,” Trading Economics said.

“The Red Sea has become a vital export corridor for Saudi Arabia during the conflict, enabling the kingdom to reroute part of its crude exports through pipelines and reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a Kuwaiti tanker carrying oil products was struck in Hormuz, underscoring persistent threats to maritime traffic. Outside the region, traders are also monitoring a series of attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal along Russia’s Black Sea coast, a key export hub for most of Kazakhstan’s crude.”

Company-specific tailwinds

Tightening oil supply isn’t the only thing driving the Santos share price higher. 

A few company-specific tailwinds, including a rise in production and improved cash flow, have also helped support the Santos share price recently.

In late April, Santos posted its March quarter update, revealing a 1% increase in production and a 3% rise in sales revenue compared with the prior quarter. 

Its free cash flow from operations of US$383 million was in line with Q425, and management reaffirmed its FY26 production and cost guidance.

The company also recently confirmed it has now hit continuous production at its Pikka oil project in Alaska. The project is now producing about 20,000 barrels of oil per day, which will ramp up to 80,000 barrels per day during the third quarter of 2026.

What do brokers expect next?

The experts are still very bullish that the Santos share price can keep climbing higher this year.

TradingView data shows that the majority (12 out of 14) analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares.

The average $8.48 target price implies a potential 8% upside, at the time of writing. But some are even more bullish that the shares could jump another 35% to a multi-year high of $10.66 a piece.

The post The Santos share price is in the spotlight this week. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.