Global Lithium Resources Ltd (ASX: GL1) shares have jumped substantially in recent weeks, as the company has secured key approvals for its Manna lithium project in Western Australia.

The shares are up slightly more than 200% over the past 12 months, but the analyst team at Shaw and Partners believe the share price has a long way to go yet.

They’ve got a buy rating on the shares, and a very bullish share price target, which I’ll get to shortly.

First, let’s look at the company’s recent announcements.

Approvals coming thick and fast

Firstly, in early August, GL1 announced that it had received approval for the Mining Development and Closure Proposal (MDCP).

The company said at the time:

The approved MDCP enables the establishment of important early works and critical infrastructure at the Manna mine site, directly supporting the integrated Manna-Nova strategy. The proposed Manna mine, located 110km east of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, is planned to operate for at least 14 years. The Project’s MDCP approval contemplates the development of multiple open pits, comprising one main (Manna Main) and two satellites (Manna North and Manna South), waste rock and dry stack tailings, ore stockpiles, accommodation village, bore field, topsoil stockpile areas and associated mining infrastructure.

The company said the approval would also give more confidence to a final investment decision for the mine, which is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, with the first direct shipping ore then targeted for the second quarter of 2027.

Then on 20 August, GL1 announced it had received the Native Vegetation Clearing Permit for the mine, completing the primary state approvals needed to begin early works. The company’s groundwater licence was also approved.

GL1 Managing Director Dr Dianmin Chen said:

Three major approvals in a fortnight is a credit to the professionalism of DMPE and DWER and to the depth of our own team’s technical work. Manna is now cleared on the ground, cleared to take water, and ready to move into construction. These approvals pave the way for starting early works and then mining operations at Manna, which will generate jobs, boost economic activity in the region, and benefit all stakeholders including our local communities for many years to come.

Global Lithium Resources shares looking cheap

Shaw and Partners said GL1 had substantially derisked the Manna project by securing the approvals.

The broker added:

Instead of committing to a standard greenfield build, GL1 management’s capital-light approach has successfully preserved Manna’s cash and strategic optionality. This positions Manna to capture the near-term market window, where lithium prices are expected to benefit from sustained supply deficits and growing demand over the next three years.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of $1.75 on GL1 shares, compared to 67.5 cents currently.

The post Up more than 200% over a year, could this ASX lithium company double again? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Reporting season can make the share market look ridiculous.

A company reports rising revenue and profit, only for its share price to sink. Another company remains unprofitable, yet its share price rockets higher.

These reactions can appear irrational. However, they make more sense once investors understand that the market is not simply grading the result.

It is grading the surprise.

A voting machine and a weighing machine

Benjamin Graham, the investor and author who mentored Warren Buffett, famously said:

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

Reporting season provides a perfect demonstration.

In the short term, investors are voting on whether a result was better or worse than expected. Those expectations have been shaped by broker forecasts, company guidance, industry conditions, and the narrative surrounding the business.

If a company reports a $50 million loss when analysts feared a $100 million loss, its shares could rise sharply. The business still lost money, but the result was better than expected.

Meanwhile, a company might increase revenue by 20%, only to see its share price tumble because the market expected 30% growth, margins contracted, or management issued a weaker outlook.

The number matters, but the gap between the number and expectations often matters more on the day.

Codan shares jump on strong results

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA) shares closed more than 12% higher after the technology company released its FY26 results.

Codan reported a 30% increase in revenue to $875 million and a 69% rise in net profit after tax to $175.2 million. Its full-year dividend increased by 70% to 48.5 cents per share.

Importantly, Codan also said its communications division had entered FY27 strongly. That forward-looking commentary gave investors new information to weigh, despite Codan having already upgraded its FY26 profit guidance in April.

Zoom out further and the relationship becomes clearer. Codan shares have more than doubled over the past 12 months while the company’s revenue, profit margins, and earnings have risen strongly.

The daily jump was a vote on the latest result and outlook. The longer-term rise increasingly reflects the growing weight of the business.

Why IDP Education shares crashed

IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) provided the other side of the lesson.

Its shares closed more than 20% lower following the release of the company’s FY26 results.

IDP reported adjusted operating earnings (EBITDA) of $122.9 million, within the guidance range provided earlier in the year. The company also produced strong cash conversion and reduced its overhead cost base by more than originally targeted.

However, the market was more interested in what came next.

Looking ahead, IDP expects challenging market conditions to persist in FY27, with tightening migration and student visa policies likely to weigh on volumes for a third year.

IDP shares are now down around 64% over the past 12 months. Over that period, the company’s revenue and profits have fallen steeply.

Again, the one-day move was a vote on expectations. The longer decline has increasingly weighed the deterioration in earnings.

Foolish takeaway

Reporting-day volatility should not be ignored, but it should be interpreted in context.

The first question is what the market expected. The second is what has genuinely changed. The third is whether that change matters to the company’s earnings power several years from now.

Investors can then examine the outlook, margins, cash flow, competitive position, and management’s capital allocation. These factors usually matter far more than whether a company narrowly beat or missed a broker forecast.

Sometimes a violent share price move signals a genuine structural change. Other times, it is simply a reaction to expectations that were too optimistic or pessimistic.

That distinction is why short-term market timing is so difficult. Investors must correctly predict the result, what everyone else expected, and how the market will react to the difference.

Over longer periods, much of that noise fades. Share prices may still wander, but earnings, cash flow, and business quality gradually place more weight on the scales.

The post What ASX reporting season share price swings really mean appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) surged more than 18% on Thursday after the company reported its full-year results, begging the question, are the shares now fully priced?

While the shares jumped significantly on Thursday, they are 9.3% lower over a 12-month period after pulling back 7.2% on Friday morning to $2.83.

The analysts at Macquarie have had a look at the results and have come up with an outperform rating on the stock, and a bullish share price target which I’ll get to shortly.

The team at UBS are also bullish on the company.

Before we get to what the analysts are saying, let’s look at what Zip announced this week.

Large jump in earnings underpinned Zip share price surge

The buy now, pay later service provider on Thursday announced record cash EBTDA of $268.9 million, up 57.9% on the previous year.

Total transaction volume (TTV) grew to $16.7 billion, up 27.2%, while the number of merchants on Zip’s platforms increased 13.8%.

Zip Chief Executive Officer, Cynthia Scott, said regarding the result:

Consistent execution has built the platform to deliver our next phase of growth and innovation. In FY26, we exceeded our targets with record cash earnings of $268.9m, up 57.9%, underpinned by material cash earnings growth in both markets. We maintained strong unit economics, expanded operating leverage and reinforced the value of our differentiated business model. Our focus on exceptional customer experiences is translating into stronger engagement. In the US, we achieved more than 40% growth in both TTV and revenue for a second consecutive year while adding new customers at scale. In ANZ, we returned to revenue and Australian receivables growth, led by the continued success of our Zip Plus product.

Ms Scott said Zip was targeting cash earnings of $340 million in FY27, which would be a 26% increase.

Brokers like the look of Zip shares

UBS said in its note to clients that the outlook for the current year was better than expected, providing comfort around the defensive qualities of the buy now, pay later business model through slowing economic times.

UBS said:

Whilst macro remains key uncertainty into FY27, we have increased confidence around Zip’s defensive quality and ability to drive customer growth and transaction frequency. Our US TTV growth forecast of +30% in FY27 is comprised of 9% customer growth and 19% TTV/customer growth, which we view achievable.

UBS has a price target on ZIP shares of $4.70.

Macquarie said “Zip’s outlook remains attractive as management executes the market opportunity in the US, supported by performance in AU”.

Macquarie has a price target of $3.50 on Zip shares.

Zip is valued at $3.8 billion.

The post How high do UBS and Macquarie think Zip shares will go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.