On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fought hard and finished the day with a decent gain. The benchmark index rose 0.25% to 8,808.4 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge higher

It looks set to be a mildly positive session for Australian investors on Thursday after a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 9 points or 0.1% higher this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 0.35%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.45%.

Buy Ioneer shares

Ioneer Ltd (ASX: INR) shares could be undervalued according to Bell Potter. In response to news of non-binding letters of intent with South Korean entities, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating on the ASX lithium stock with an improved price target of 40 cents. This is more than double its current share price. It said: “Rhyolite Ridge is strategically important as a fully permitted, near-term and US-located source of lithium and boron supply. Both lithium and boron are USGS-designated critical minerals. […]  Lithium markets have recently strengthened, and we expect continued growth in underlying demand and limited new sources of supply will support lithium chemicals prices over the medium to long term.”

Oil prices sink

It could be a poor session for ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices sank again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 4.6% to US$69.82 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 5.15% to US$73.11 a barrel. This was driven by reports that tankers are successfully transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

BHP and Rio Tinto shares on watch

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares could have a poor session on Thursday after their NYSE-listed shares dropped on Wall Street overnight. BHP shares were down almost 2% and Rio Tinto shares were down over 1.5%. This may have been driven by a pullback in commodity prices. This includes a 2.6% decline in the copper price to US$5.99 per pound.

Gold price tumbles

It could be a difficult session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.35% to US$4,010.3 an ounce. The gold price hit a seven-month low on rising US interest rate hike bets.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX dividend stocks remain a favourite for income-focused investors looking to generate steady passive income while still participating in long-term capital growth.

That income stream can also act as a useful buffer during periods of share market volatility, which remains a key theme right now as markets continue to fluctuate.

With that in mind, two of the ASX’s most established defensive dividend payers stand out today. They offer reliable cash flows, essential infrastructure exposure, and long track records of shareholder returns.

Let’s take a closer look.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA Group is one of Australia’s most important energy infrastructure businesses.

It owns and operates a vast portfolio of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets across the country, including pipelines, storage facilities, and gas-fired power stations. In fact, APA transports more than half of Australia’s natural gas through its network.

That scale and essential service exposure make APA a classic defensive ASX dividend stock. Demand for energy infrastructure remains relatively stable through economic cycles, and much of APA’s revenue is underpinned by long-term, often inflation-linked contracts.

This structure helps smooth earnings and supports consistent income for shareholders.

APA has paid regular distributions for close to two decades, reflecting the reliability of its infrastructure-based earnings model.

The company typically pays two distributions per year and most recently paid an interim distribution of 27.5 cents per security. It is guiding to a full-year FY26 distribution of 58 cents per security.

At current levels, this equates to a forward yield of around 5.6%, making it an attractive option for income investors seeking stability and yield.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban Group is another high-quality defensive dividend stock that operates one of the largest urban toll road networks in the world.

The company owns and operates 22 toll road assets across Australia, the US, and Canada, including major motorways, tunnels, and bridges.

Its appeal lies in the essential nature of its assets. Even during economic downturns, people still need to travel for work, freight needs to move, and cities continue to function. That helps ensure relatively stable traffic volumes and resilient cash flow.

The ASX dividend stock also benefits from inflation-linked pricing mechanisms on many of its roads, allowing it to increase tolls annually in line with inflation. That provides a natural hedge in higher price environments.

The company paid an interim distribution of 34 cents per share in February and has guided to a full-year FY26 distribution of 69 cents per share.

At current levels, that represents a forward yield of approximately 4.6%, reinforcing its appeal as a dependable income generator.

Foolish takeaway

Together, APA Group and Transurban offer investors exposure to essential infrastructure assets with long-term contracted or regulated revenue streams.

They may not be the most exciting growth stories on the ASX, but for investors seeking steady income and defensive characteristics, these ASX dividend stocks remain two of the market’s most reliable dividend payers.

The post $5,000 buys 194 shares in these 2 top ASX dividend stocks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Want passive income? These 3 ASX dividend stocks could deliver
• Transurban Group declares FY26 distribution; announces AGM date
• How I’d build $50,000 of ASX passive income
• 3 ASX dividend shares to buy and hold for years of income

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Some ASX shares spend long periods in the market’s bad books.

That can be frustrating for existing shareholders, but it can also create opportunities for patient investors. When expectations are already low, a business does not need perfection to improve the investment case. It may only need steadier execution, better confidence, or a clearer path to growth.

Here are two ASX shares I would consider buying before sentiment improves.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL is one share I think investors may come back to over time.

The healthcare giant has been through a difficult period, and confidence is lower than it once was. But I still think the core business has plenty of value.

CSL operates in markets that are difficult to enter and require deep expertise, global scale, regulatory experience, and long relationships with healthcare providers. Plasma therapies, vaccines, and other specialist healthcare products are not areas where new competitors can simply arrive and quickly take market share.

What interests me now is the reset in expectations. CSL no longer needs to be viewed as a perfect compounder to be a worthwhile investment. A period of steadier margins, better execution, and clearer earnings growth could be enough to change the conversation.

The business still needs to deliver, of course. But I think the market may be underestimating how valuable CSL’s global healthcare infrastructure remains.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Zip is a very different idea. This is a higher-risk growth share, but I think it has become more interesting as the business has matured.

The old buy now, pay later excitement has faded. That may be a good thing. Zip is now being judged more on earnings, credit quality, operating discipline, and whether it can build a sustainable payments business.

I like that shift. A company that can grow while controlling risk has a much better chance of creating long-term value than one chasing volume at any cost. Zip still needs to prove that its model can keep scaling profitably, especially in large markets such as the United States.

But if management keeps improving credit settings, customer quality, and operating leverage, I think the upside could be meaningful.

Zip remains speculative compared with a blue-chip share. Still, I think it is the kind of stock that can move quickly if the market starts to believe the earnings story has changed.

Foolish takeaway

Buying before sentiment improves is uncomfortable by nature.

The easier moment usually comes later, after the share price has already started to recover and the story sounds cleaner. That is why I think shares like CSL and Zip are worth watching closely now.

Both businesses have something to prove, but both also have a credible path to becoming more valuable if execution improves. That is the kind of setup I like when looking for opportunities.

The post Why I’d buy CSL and Zip shares before they recover appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.