National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are in the green again in Tuesday lunchtime trade.

At the time of writing, the ASX bank stock is up around 0.5% to $38.83 a piece.

Today’s increase means NAB shares have now recovered around 9% since they dropped to a 52-week low in early June.

For the year to date, NAB shares are still down around 8% and are around 1% below the levels seen this time last year.

What happened to NAB shares?

NAB shares rallied strongly to a record high of around $49.10 in late February this year. 

The increase was mainly driven by the bank’s strong earnings results, expectations of lower interest rates, and investor appetite for high-yield bank stocks.

But as quickly as NAB shares stormed higher, they softened again. By early June, the shares had shed around 27% of their value and slumped to an annual low of $35.86.

The sell-off followed concerns that major banks, including NAB, were overvalued after a strong rally. 

Meanwhile, intense mortgage competition has put pressure on the bank’s profit margins and raised concerns about future earnings.

The share price has rebounded slightly since the dip, most likely reflecting slightly improved market sentiment. However, many experts are still cautious.

Which leads to the question, what’s next?

Are the ASX 200 banking giant’s shares a buy, sell, or hold over the next 12 months?

Market Index data shows that brokers are divided about NAB shares, but the majority rate the bank stock as a hold. The average target price of $39.17 implies a potential 1% upside ahead.

Sentiment is similar on TradingView. Data shows that the majority (eight out of 16 analysts) have a hold rating on the shares. Another five rate NAB shares as a sell or strong sell, and the remaining analysts rate the stock as a buy.

But the average $37.78 target price implies a potential 3% downside ahead, at the time of writing. 

The range is huge, though. The maximum $47.50 target price implies a potential 22% upside ahead. But others think NAB shares could crash 25% to just $29 each.

Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable said he is concerned about the outlook for NAB shares in FY27. He pointed to margin pressure, credit risk, and questions around the bank’s competitive advantage. He has a sell rating on the shares and said the stock is exposed to downside risk. 

Mark Gardner from MPC Markets said his team is bearish on NAB shares. He said they believe the bank’s near-term earnings outlook is under pressure. The broker recently said that while its dividend remains attractive, valuation support is less convincing if earnings momentum continues softening. Gardner has a sell recommendation.

Catapult Wealth’s Dylan Evans also has a sell recommendation on NAB shares. He said that changes announced in the Federal Budget, coupled with households pressured by rising interest rates, could create new headwinds for the bank.

The post Here’s what brokers tip for NAB shares over the next 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares remained under pressure on Tuesday, falling 5.6% to $4.85 during afternoon trade.

The latest decline extends a difficult run for the lithium giant, with the stock now down around 18% over the past month.

That pullback looks painful, but it also needs some perspective. PLS shares are still up around 18% in 2026 and an extraordinary 226% over the past 12 months after emerging as one of the ASX’s standout performers during FY26.

So, why are investors suddenly hitting the sell button?

A victim of its own success

PLS was one of the biggest winners during the lithium rally, making today’s weakness partly a case of profit-taking after an exceptional run.

The company is widely regarded as the highest-beta lithium stock on the ASX. When lithium prices rally, PLS shares often outperform the broader sector thanks to its size, production scale and operating leverage.

Unfortunately, the opposite is also true. When lithium prices soften, PLS tends to fall harder than its peers as investors reduce exposure to the sector’s market leader.

That appears to be exactly what’s happening now.

Lithium prices lose momentum

Another factor weighing on sentiment is the recent weakness in China’s lithium market. Chinese lithium carbonate futures declined again overnight, extending the pullback that began in late June following a powerful rally earlier this year.

The correction appears to be driven largely by profit-taking, with traders questioning whether lithium prices had risen too far, too quickly relative to underlying market fundamentals.

Because lithium prices remain one of the biggest drivers of earnings expectations across the sector, weaker futures have flowed through to ASX-listed lithium producers, including PLS.

Underlying business remains strong

Importantly, the recent share price weakness doesn’t reflect a deterioration in PLS’s underlying business. The company’s impressive first-half FY26 result highlighted just how much its financial performance has improved.

Revenue climbed 47% to $624 million, supported by both stronger lithium prices and higher sales volumes. Underlying EBITDA surged 241% to $253 million, while EBITDA margins expanded from 17% to an impressive 41%.

Those results demonstrate the operating leverage within the business. As lithium prices improve, PLS can translate higher revenue into significantly faster earnings growth.

Its flagship Pilgangoora operation also remains one of the world’s largest hard-rock lithium mines, giving the company significant scale advantages and a competitive cost position.

What’s next for PLS shares?

The next major catalyst will be the company’s second-half FY26 results, due on 31 August. Investors will be watching closely for updates on production and shipment volumes, operating costs and management’s outlook for lithium demand and pricing.

Progress on the P2000 expansion project will also be closely scrutinised, with investors in PLS shares eager to understand how the company plans to increase production while maintaining its cost advantage.

Foolish takeaway

PLS shares have lost momentum over the past month, but much of the weakness appears linked to softer lithium prices and investors taking profits after one of the strongest rallies on the ASX.

The company’s fundamentals remain solid, supported by strong earnings growth, expanding margins and one of the world’s premier lithium assets.

However, until commodity markets regain momentum, investors should expect volatility to remain part of the ride.

The post Why are PLS shares still falling? Here’s what’s behind the sell-off appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) shares are pushing higher on Tuesday after the media company gave investors something new to weigh up.

At the time of writing, the Nine share price is up 1.87% to 92.7 cents.

It is only a modest gain, but shareholders will take it. Nine shares are still down 17% since the start of 2026 and 43% over the past year.

Here’s what the company announced.

NRL rights locked in

According to the release, Nine has signed an agreement for NRL and NRLW broadcast rights from 2028 through to the 2034 seasons.

Under the agreement, Channel 9 and 9Now will keep their current NRL coverage. That includes 3 live NRL games each week, the Finals Series, and Test matches played in Australia.

The NRL Grand Final and State of Origin will continue to be shown exclusively on Channel 9 and 9Now.

Nine has also secured exclusive free-to-air and free streaming rights to 33 live NRLW games, the NRLW finals, and Women’s State of Origin.

What Nine is paying

Nine said the annual cost will be $145 million in cash. This will be partly offset by $10 million in committed annual NRL advertising and other services, as well as $15 million each year in contra.

Live sport remains one of the few things that can still pull big audiences at the same time. Rugby league is also a major part of Nine’s broadcast schedule.

The company said men’s streaming and broadcast audiences have increased across all formats. Rugby league also delivered double-digit revenue growth for Nine in the 2025 season compared with 2024.

Why are Nine shares only up a little?

The Nine share price gain isn’t huge, and that probably comes down to the cost of the deal.

Investors knew Nine was chasing the NRL rights, so the agreement itself is not a major surprise. The bigger question is how much value Nine can pull from the content over the life of the deal.

That leaves the focus on what Nine can do with the rights from here.

Advertising conditions are still uneven, and Nine will need rugby league to keep driving audiences, revenue growth, and 9Now engagement to make the extra spend worthwhile.

Can Nine shares recover?

The deal doesn’t solve all of Nine’s problems, but it does take a big risk off the table.

Losing rugby league would have been a bad result. It is a major part of Nine’s free-to-air and streaming schedule, and still one of the better ways to bring in big live audiences.

Nine now has the rights locked in through to 2034, across both the men’s and women’s competitions. That should help 9Now, the broadcast business, and the way Nine sells advertising around its sports coverage.

Nonetheless, after a 43% fall over the past year, the share price still has plenty of work to do. But this is one less thing investors have to worry about.

The post Why this beaten-down ASX media stock is rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.