Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) has not been the easiest ASX share to own recently.

Supermarket investing can look simple from the outside, but the reality is more demanding. Customers want value, suppliers want fair prices, regulators are watching, costs keep moving, and competition does not disappear.

Even so, I think Woolworths could be a smart defensive buy for investors looking ahead to FY27.

A business built around repeat decisions

The appeal of Woolworths starts with frequency.

Most households do not think about groceries as an investment theme. They just keep buying them. Week after week, people need food, cleaning products, personal care items, pet supplies, and household essentials.

That repeat demand gives Woolworths a strong base.

The company has a large store network, a major online presence, loyalty data, supply chain scale, and relationships with millions of customers. That gives it many ways to improve the shopping experience, manage stock, personalise offers, and make the weekly shop easier.

I think that customer connection is valuable.

In retail, small gains can matter. A better app, a faster delivery slot, fewer out-of-stocks, sharper pricing on key items, or a cleaner store experience can all influence where people spend their grocery budget.

Defensive does not mean effortless

Woolworths still has plenty of work to do.

Grocery retail has become politically sensitive because households are under pressure. The company needs to balance margins, customer trust, supplier relationships, staff costs, and investment in stores and technology.

That is a difficult balance.

But I think the best defensive businesses are not the ones with no challenges. They are the ones with enough scale, relevance, and cash generation to keep working through them.

Woolworths has those qualities.

It also has a place in the economy that should remain important regardless of market mood. People may delay a holiday, a new appliance, or a home renovation. They still need groceries.

Why I’d consider buying Woolworths shares

For investors, the question is whether Woolworths can turn its defensive position into acceptable long-term returns.

I think it can.

The company does not need to become a high-growth technology stock. It needs to keep earning customer trust, improve productivity, use data well, invest in online and store operations, and return cash to shareholders over time.

That may sound unexciting, but it can be valuable in a diversified portfolio.

Woolworths can provide a different kind of exposure to the ASX. It is linked less to commodity prices or banking margins and more to everyday household spending. That can make it useful when investors want stability.

Foolish takeaway

Woolworths is not a perfect business, but I think it remains a useful one.

The company sits close to Australian households, has scale that few retailers can match, and operates in a category where demand keeps returning. In FY27, that kind of resilience could be appealing if investors remain nervous about the economy.

The investment case is about owning a business that can keep serving customers, generating cash, and adapting to a tougher retail environment. For investors wanting a defensive ASX share with long-term relevance, I think Woolworths is worth considering.

The post Could Woolworths shares be a smart defensive buy for FY27? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Are Woolworths shares still a buy at a 52-week high?
• This ASX 200 giant just hit a 52-week high. Is it getting too expensive?
• Woolworths shares soar to new multi-year high: Buy, sell or hold?
• One ASX dividend and one ASX growth stock to buy now

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

US stocks have set new records this year while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has barely risen.

The S&P 500 Index (SP: INX) is up 9% in the calendar year to date (YTD) and hit a record 7,620.9 points on 2 June.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC) reached a new peak of 27,190.21 points on 1 June, and is up 13% YTD.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX: .DJI) touched a new high of 52,281.19 points on 17 June, and has lifted 8% YTD.

Meanwhile, at the time of writing, ASX 200 shares have risen by less than 1% in 2026.

Here’s why.

US stocks are smashing ASX shares in 2026

Drew Meredith, a principal advisor at Wattle Partners, says the performance gap can be attributed to artificial intelligence (AI).

In an article on The Golden Times, Meredith explained:

The United States market is being driven by a small number of companies with outsized earnings power, almost all tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon have delivered earnings growth that justifies, at least in part, the premium valuations US indices now carry.

Meanwhile, ASX shares are being held back by several elements that have little to do with the quality of our listed companies.

Meredith says:

The Federal Budget’s CGT reform package has weighed on sentiment in financial stocks, property, and healthcare.

The US-Iran conflict has created energy price uncertainty that hurts an economy reliant on stable commodity exports.

The Australian consumer sector is also weak, with confidence falling to one of its poorest levels in 50 years last month.

On top of that, the ASX does not have many companies exposed to the AI earnings cycle in the same way that the US markets do.

Our tech sector is pretty small. In fact, tech shares comprise just 2.1% of the ASX 200.

Should you buy US stocks?

Meredith warns against chasing performance, commenting:

If you are sitting with a predominantly Australian portfolio watching the gap widen, you are probably feeling a pull to do something.

That pull is understandable. It is also the thing most likely to cost you money.

Meredith explains a phenomenon called “recency bias”.

When one market dramatically outperforms another for two or three years, investors feel they were wrong to be diversified. That feeling is not evidence. It is recency bias.

The periods of sharpest US outperformance relative to global peers have consistently been followed by periods of mean reversion.

This happened after the dot-com peak in 2000. It happened in the early years after the GFC when US banks were recovering and Australian miners were printing money.

It does not happen on a schedule you can predict, which is precisely why systematic diversification matters more than tactical shifts.

‘Mean’ is a statistical term for ‘average’. Mean reversion is the idea that share prices don’t stay unusually high or low forever. They tend to move back toward their historical average over time.

How switching from ASX shares to US stocks will cost you

One of the biggest reasons not to switch from underperforming ASX shares into outperforming US stocks today is the tax implications.

Meredith, a retirement wealth specialist, explains it this way:

For many retirees who built their Australian equity positions over decades, switching from Australian to global exposure carries a meaningful capital gains tax cost.

Selling a long-held parcel of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), or CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) to buy more Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS), Global X Fang+ ETF (ASX: FANG), or iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV) is not a free transaction.

If those shares have large embedded gains and you are selling them in a year where the CGT discount is already under political threat, the timing adds an additional layer of risk.

What should you do?

Meredith said investors shouldn’t sell ASX shares while they’re soft today to buy US stocks at a cyclical high.

You may end up paying a big CGT bill for what will become a diminishing performance gap as US stocks undergo mean reversion.

The most prudent step is to check how your portfolio’s composition has changed this year.

Meredith advises:

Check your allocation. Not your recent returns, your allocation.

If your target was 40 per cent Australian equities, 25 per cent global equities, 20 per cent fixed income, and 15 per cent cash two years ago, what is it now?

If market movements have drifted you significantly off target, a disciplined rebalance to target is reasonable. That is not performance chasing. It is maintenance.

If you have cash to invest and want more global exposure, a regular contribution into the plethora of global ETFs could be an option.

The post Why US stocks have hit record highs while ASX shares have barely risen in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How to invest $500, $5,000, and $50,000 on the ASX
• Want a pay rise? These ASX dividend shares keep delivering
• 3 strong ASX ETFs for beginner investors
• How much passive income can I make from ASX shares?
• The retirement ETF portfolio I’d add to super

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group and Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, CSL, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, BHP Group, CSL, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF, and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are searching for some new investment options, then it could pay to listen to what the team at Morgans is saying about the three in this article.

Does it rate them as buys, holds, or sells? Let’s find out:

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

Morgans hasn’t been impressed with this energy producer’s operational performance. And, unfortunately, it believes the trend will continue and suspects that it could fall short of guidance in FY 2027.

As a result, it recently downgraded Beach Energy shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of 81 cents. This compares to its current share price of 85 cents. It said:

We mark-to-market our second half estimates for weaker spot gas prices, while also trimming our Waitsia output forecasts for FY26-28 on continuing struggles. After downgrading our Q4 estimates for daily production rates, we see potential for BPT to fall just short of its FY27 group production guidance.

While BPT’s share price has already been under pressure, its earnings outlook has declined at a faster rate, with its forward EV/EBITDA actually rising. We downgrade our recommendation to Sell (from Hold) with a revised target price of A$0.81 (was A$1.10).

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

While this travel agent recently downgraded its earnings guidance, Morgans has been far more forgiving.

It appears to believe that the worst is now behind the company and that a sharp rebound in earnings and its valuation could be on the cards soon.

This has seen Morgans put a buy rating and $14.80 price target on its shares. This is meaningfully higher than the current Flight Centre share price of $11.99. It commented:

Given recent downgrades from other travel industry peers due to the conflict in the Middle East, FLT’s downgrade wasn’t a surprise. Given its balance sheet strength and depressed share price, a new up to A$200m share buyback was announced. We have made only minor changes to our forecasts given FLT’s guidance was broadly in line with our previous forecast.

While a peace agreement and eased travel restrictions are positive, we think 1H27 will still be challenging. We forecast a strong recovery in 2H27. If it wasn’t for this conflict, FLT would have had a great year given its results for the first nine months were strong. We are buyers of FLT because when operating conditions ultimately improve, both its earnings and share price will be materially higher.

Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Another ASX share the broker is sticking with after an earnings guidance downgrade is small business lender Judo Capital.

It thinks the selling has been overdone and has retained its buy rating with a reduced price target of $1.47. This compares to the current Judo Capital share price of 88 cents. It said:

JDO downgraded its FY26 PBT guidance by c.8% at the mid-point. Even more disappointing was first-time FY27 PBT guidance which was c.16% below expectations at the mid-point. The share price drawdown was vicious (particularly considering the decline that had already occurred since February).

While the earnings growth outlook has moderated, we still forecast c.30% EPS growth across both FY26 and FY27 with the stock now trading on a c.6.8x PER (FY27F) and 0.6x P:BV (end-FY26). A significant risk premium or probability of failure has been priced into the stock. BUY.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Beach Energy, Flight Centre, and Judo Capital shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now
• 6 ASX shares with upgraded ratings from experts this week
• Why Beach Energy, Ioneer, Solstice Minerals, and Transurban shares are pushing higher today
• Why 4DMedical, Centuria Capital, Judo Capital, and Worley shares are dropping today
• Why DroneShield, WiseTech and Judo shares are leading the ASX 200 lower this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.