Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares have slipped further into the red in early Monday morning trade.

At the time of writing, the shares have fallen by around 1% to a fresh 52-week low of $10.30 each. 

Today’s decline means the shares are now down around 9% year to date and over 11% below the trading levels seen this time last year. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up just over 1% for the year to date and 3% higher over the past 12 months.  

Why is everyone selling their Origin Energy shares?

Origin Energy was one of the strongest performers on the index in early 2026, but after the energy provider posted its March quarter update in late April, investors rushed to sell off their shares.

The update, which covers Origin Energy’s Integrated Gas, Energy markets, and Octopus Energy segments, revealed declines across the board. The company also downgraded its FY26 EBITDA guidance. 

The sell-off continued through May and June. Now, at the time of writing, Origin Energy shares have lost around 19% of their value since the announcement. 

The share price has fallen around 7% in the first week of July alone.

There haven’t been any price-sensitive updates out of the company recently to explain the sell-off. It looks like the ASX energy stock has come off the boil following lower realised LNG prices and a recent market-wide energy pricing review. 

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and various state watchdogs have mandated that retailers pass on regulatory price cuts. But the adjustments have caused a significant restructure of how power bills are calculated. 

This regulatory scrutiny of electricity pricing has raised concerns that retail margins could come under pressure. And investors are spooked.  

The question now is whether it’s still a good idea to add Origin Energy shares to your portfolio, or whether you should sell up ahead of the next slump. 

Are the energy shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

It looks like the experts are also divided about the outlook for Origin Energy shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows brokers are split between a hold and a buy rating. But after the latest price crash, the $12.73 average target price still implies a potential 23% upside, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something very similar. Out of 12 analysts, five have a hold rating, and five have a buy or strong buy rating. Another two analysts rate the energy stock as a sell or strong sell.

But they do all agree an upside is ahead. 

The average $12.15 target price implies a potential 18% upside at the time of writing. And some are tipping the shares to storm up to 30% higher to $13.40 a piece, over the next 12 months.

With lower EBITDA expected for FY26, continued regulatory headwinds, and the potential for oil and LNG headwinds to continue trickling through into FY27, I think we could see even more downside ahead for Origin Energy shares this year.  

The post Origin Energy sell-off continues, shares hit fresh 52-week low: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are charging higher today following an unsolicited binding takeover proposal from fellow S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD).

Vault Minerals shares closed on Friday trading for $4.56. In early morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $5.05 apiece, up 10.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time, while Genesis Minerals shares are down 6.7% on the news, trading for $5.87 each.

Here’s what’s happening.

Vault Minerals shares leap on superior $5.6 billion takeover offer

As you may recall, it was only back on 5 May that Vault Minerals announced its intentions to merge with Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).

(If you’re wondering, Regis Resources shares are up 0.5% today, trading for $6.66 each.)

Under what was labelled a “merger-of-equals”, Regis was planning to acquire 100% of Vault Minerals shares. Vault stockholders would then receive 0.6947 new Regis Resources shares in exchange for their Vault shares.

Commenting on the proposed Regis Resources merger on the day, Vault Minerals CEO Luke Tonkin said:

Vault’s portfolio, anchored by the King of the Hills operation currently undergoing a significant mill expansion, brings long-life, high-quality assets and a strong financial position to the merger.

By combining these strengths with Regis’ proven operational and exploration capability, the merged company is better positioned to deliver sustained production, enhanced reserve replacement and long-term value creation across gold price cycles.

But Genesis Minerals may have thrown a spanner into those plans with a superior takeover offer that was announced this morning.

Under the proposed scheme of arrangement, Vault Minerals shareholders will receive 0.7629 new ordinary shares in Genesis plus 47.5 cents in cash for every Vault share they hold.

The improved takeover offer values Vault at $5.274 per share, or $5.6 billion, based on the Genesis share price at market close on Friday.

That’s 15.7% above Friday’s closing price for Vault Minerals shares. And it represents a 14.5% improvement on the implied offer price from Regis Resources’ takeover offer.

Commenting on the improved takeover offer, the Vault board noted:

In accordance with the Regis SID, Vault has notified Regis that it considers the Genesis Proposal to be a Vault Superior Proposal for the purposes of the Regis SID and that the five business day matching right period has commenced.

During this matching right period, Regis has the right (but not the obligation) to announce or provide a matching or superior proposal to the Genesis Proposal.

Stay tuned!

The post Move over Regis Resources! Vault Minerals shares leaping 11% as Genesis Minerals’ lobs $5.6 billion takeover bid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP) shares are sinking on Monday, despite the gold and copper miner releasing a strong production update. 

In early morning trade, the Greatland share price is down 5.61% to $11.11. By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.2% to 8,823 points. 

The fall extends a weaker run for the ASX gold stock. Greatland shares are now down almost 16% over the past month, although they remain around 60% higher since this time last year. 

Here’s what investors were given. 

Production comes in ahead of guidance

According to the release, Greatland produced 79,090 ounces of gold and 3,573 tonnes of copper during the June quarter.  

This lifted full-year production to 328,986 ounces of gold and 14,594 tonnes of copper.

Management said full-year gold production was 6% above the top end of its FY26 guidance range of 260,000 to 310,000 ounces. 

Sales were solid as well, with Greatland selling 74,648 ounces of gold and 5,311 tonnes of copper during the quarter. For the full year, sales came in at 326,859 ounces of gold and 14,729 tonnes of copper.

While the production result was strong, investors will have to wait a little longer for the cost side of the update. Greatland said its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) is still being finalised and will be included in its June quarterly activities report later this month. 

Cash balance moves higher

The balance sheet was another positive part of the update.

Greatland ended June with $1.289 billion in cash, up from $1.208 billion at the end of March. It also had nil debt.

Even after capital expenditure and an $87 million quarterly tax instalment, Greatland still added $81 million of cash during the quarter. 

The company noted that another $20 million of sales were completed in late June, with the cash received after the quarter ended.

Why investors are still selling

Greatland has already had a huge run over the past year, so investors may have been looking for a reason to take some profit off the table.

The missing AISC figure may also be holding back some buyers. Without it, investors don’t yet have the full margin detail, even though production and cash were clearly strong.

Can Greatland shares find support?

I still think this was a good update.

Gold production came in ahead of guidance, cash moved higher, and the company remains debt-free. These numbers give buyers something solid to work with once the selling settles. 

The June quarterly report later this month will be the next key update.

If costs land around expectations, Greatland shares should have a decent chance to find support after this recent pullback.

The post Why this ASX 200 gold stock is falling despite beating guidance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.