CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares staged another strong rebound on Thursday, rising 2% to $117.65.

That extends the company’s gain over the past month to roughly 20%, a welcome change for long-suffering shareholders.

But the bigger picture remains far less impressive.

Despite the recent rally, CSL shares are still down about 32% in 2026 and have plunged a remarkable 51% over the past 12 months.

Not long ago, CSL was considered one of the safest long-term holdings on the ASX. It built a reputation as a dependable compounder, consistently growing earnings and rewarding patient investors. These days, however, the healthcare giant seems to lurch from one setback to another.

So what happened?

CSL’s latest update exposed the challenges

CSL’s latest market update provided a timely reminder of why investors have become so cautious.

The company now expects FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of around US$3.1 billion, both on a constant currency basis.

At first glance, those numbers may not appear disastrous. Dig a little deeper, however, and several headwinds become clear.

The biggest issue remains CSL Behring’s immunoglobulin business in the US. Demand for immunoglobulin products continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit pace, which is broadly in line with management’s expectations. Unfortunately, investors in CSL shares won’t see the full benefit of that demand growth immediately.

CSL is normalising inventory levels across its distribution channels, which is expected to reduce reported revenue by approximately US$300 million.

Deteriorated prices

While CSL has successfully expanded its market share and stabilised sales volumes, pricing conditions have deteriorated. In other words, the company is selling more product but earning less from it. Management expects that dynamic to reduce revenue by roughly US$200 million.

The hits keep coming. CSL also flagged revenue impacts from conflict in the Middle East, slower-than-expected growth for gene therapy treatment HEMGENIX, and increasing competition in its iron business. Together, those factors are expected to shave another US$150 million from revenue.

As if that wasn’t enough, CSL expects to recognise around US$5 billion in impairment charges across FY26 and FY27. That’s the sort of figure that tends to make investors wince.

Still reasons for optimism

The update wasn’t entirely negative.

Management continues to forecast stronger revenue growth during the second half of FY26 for CSL Behring, supported by solid underlying demand, commercial execution, and benefits from ongoing operational improvement programs.

Meanwhile, vaccine business Seqirus is now expected to deliver a moderately stronger performance than previously anticipated.

Those positives help explain why the price of CSL shares has bounced from recent lows despite the disappointing headlines.

Is the CSL share price a buy?

Broker sentiment suggests analysts are not ready to give up on CSL shares just yet.

According to TradingView data, there have been 18 broker ratings on the stock over the past three months. Eight analysts rate CSL as a buy, while the remaining ten sit on the fence with hold recommendations.

The average price target stands at $141.53, implying potential upside of approximately 20% from current levels.

That suggests many analysts believe the worst may already be reflected in CSL’s battered valuation.

The post Once untouchable, now unloved: What’s up with CSL shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have hit a rough patch after soaring to fresh record highs just last week.

The BHP share price has fallen around 11% since those highs and is down roughly 7% over the past five trading sessions. Despite the pullback, investors are still sitting on impressive gains. BHP shares remain up about 29% in 2026 and have surged approximately 62% over the past 12 months.

For comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained just 2% over the same 12-month period.

So, after a sharp sell-off, where do brokers see BHP shares heading next?

Why have BHP shares slumped?

The main catalyst behind the recent weakness of BHP shares was an update on the company’s massive Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Following a comprehensive review of costs and timelines for Jansen Stage 2, BHP revealed that the project will be significantly more expensive than previously expected.

The company now estimates Stage 2 will require an additional US$4.9 billion to US$5.4 billion beyond earlier forecasts. That comes on top of the original US$4.9 billion budget approved in October 2023.

The $300 billion ASX mining stock also announced it expects to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion relating to Jansen Stage 2 in its FY26 results.

The timeline has also slipped. First production from Stage 2 is now expected in FY2031, two years later than the previous target of 2029.

Little room for disappointment

Meanwhile, Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production in FY2027, although its cost estimate has also increased since the project was originally sanctioned. BHP has indicated it will provide a further update on Stage 1 costs and timing before 31 December 2026.

Importantly, this is not the first time Jansen’s projected costs have risen. Repeated budget revisions have increasingly tested investor confidence and raised questions about the reliability of management’s long-term project forecasts.

The market’s reaction may also reflect the strong run-up in BHP shares prior to the announcement. After climbing around 30% since the start of the year, expectations were high and there was little room for disappointment.

Some investors may also be locking in profits after the remarkable gains of BHP shares.

What do brokers forecast for BHP shares?

Despite the recent sell-off, analysts remain largely neutral on BHP’s prospects.

According to TradingView data, 13 of the 19 analysts covering BHP currently rate the stock as a hold. Four analysts have buy recommendations, while two rate the mining giant as either a sell or strong sell.

Among the more recent updates, DZ Bank upgraded BHP shares from sell to hold. The broker has an average price target of $65 per share, implying upside of around 11% from current levels.

The spread of analyst forecasts remains unusually wide.

The most optimistic analyst has a price target of $94.51, suggesting potential upside of about 61.5%. At the other end of the spectrum, the most bearish forecast sits at $40.97, suggesting downside of roughly 30%.

Foolish takeaway

That divergence highlights the key debate facing investors. On one hand, BHP continues to benefit from its world-class asset portfolio, substantial iron ore cash flows, and increasing exposure to copper, which could be crucial in the global energy transition. Potash also remains a potentially valuable long-term growth opportunity, even if the development timeline has stretched further into the future.

On the other hand, escalating project costs and execution risks at Jansen have introduced fresh uncertainty. For now, most brokers appear content to sit on the fence.

The post What’s next for BHP shares? Broker forecasts revealed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Brightstar Resources Ltd (ASX: BTR) is being overlooked by investors at the moment, according to the team at Shaw and Partners, which has tipped the emerging gold producer to more than triple in value as its projects come into production.

Projects already well-progressed

Shaw and Partners analysts said that, between the company’s Goldfields and the Sandstone projects, Brightstar has a “realistic path” to producing 275,000 ounces of gold per year from FY31.

The analysts said in a note to clients this week:

In our view, the market is heavily discounting BTR’s project delivery. However, we find both projects relatively low-risk, standard WA gold operations. Goldfields has already commenced construction with first gold due in JunQ’27. Sandstone may be early-stage but has permitting and technical advantages, plus considerable Resource upside potential. Market confidence could be aided with two Resource updates, a maiden Reserve, and prefeasibility study expected in 2H CY26.

Brightstar made a final investment decision to proceed with the Goldfields project in May, saying at the time it was fully funded through to first gold following the completion of a $193 million equity raising and a US$120 million bond financing.

The project was expected to produce about 75,000 ounces of gold per year over the initial six-year mine life, generating about $1 billion.

Brightstar Managing Director Alex Rovira said regarding the project:

Today’s Final Investment Decision is a landmark moment for Brightstar. With all key approvals now secured, funding in place and the EPC contract executed with GR Engineering, we are immediately moving into full construction of the 1.5Mtpa Laverton processing plant. It marks the first major step in our TARGET200 strategy to build a multi-asset Western Australian gold producer and advance our aspiration of being a Top 10 Australian Gold Producer. We are fully funded, highly motivated and focused on executing with discipline to deliver this transformative project on time and on budget whilst continuing to unlock further value across our Goldfields and Sandstone assets.

The Shaw and Partners team said the Goldfields project posed low technical risk and believed the mine would eventually produce one million ounces of gold.

They said that at an earlier stage of the Sandstone project, they expected production to peak at 200,000 ounces per year and that the gold resource could “materially increase” in the second half of this calendar year.

Shares looking cheap

The analysts added that, looking at peer group companies, a market capitalisation of $2 billion was reasonable.

Brightstar’s current market capitalisation is $323.9 million.

Shaw and Partners has a $1.15 price target on the company’s shares compared to 28 cents currently.

The post Looking for returns of greater than 250%? One broker has tipped this ASX gold stock to fly appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Once untouchable, now unloved: What’s up with CSL shares?
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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.