When it comes to picking stocks that might have some serious upside, it pays to ask the professionals.

I’ve had a look through the broker reports that came out this week and have selected three ASX 200 companies that the analyst team at Macquarie thinks will do well going forward. 

Let’s see what they’re saying.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

This oil and gas major recently announced it had hit continuous production at its Pikka oil project in Alaska, which was a major milestone for the company. 

The project is now producing about 20,000 barrels of oil per day, which will ramp up to 80,000 during the third quarter of 2026.

Santos Managing Director Kevin Gallagher said regarding the project:

Pikka is a high-quality, low-cost oil development with strong economics and long reserves life benefiting not only Santos and its joint venture partner Repsol, but also key stakeholders, including the State of Alaska and Alaska Native Corporations. The project is set to generate robust cash flows and support strong shareholder returns over the coming years.

Macquarie said in this week’s note to clients that Santos had “solid sequential growth” in its second-quarter production. 

They added:

Currently, we view STO as tracking to the lower end of its CY26 guidance range, due to the longer asset commissioning/ramp times than expected when the guide was set.

They also added that due to relative share price weakness, Santos may yet again be in the sights of acquirers.

Macquarie has a price target of $9 on Santos shares compared to $7.07 at the time of writing.  

Pexa Ltd (ASX: PXA)

Shares in this property settlements technology company are down about 16% over a 12-month period, but the Macquarie team believes there is significant upside.

Macquarie said property settlements in New South Wales improved by 3.1% in June compared with the previous corresponding period, after a weak May.

Macquarie boosted its price target on the company to $19.30 from $19.05, compared with $10.87 at the time of writing.

The broker added, “formal commitment from additional Tier-1 lenders is likely to incentivise the other Tier-1 lenders to onboard with PXA quickly, driving rapid market share gains”.  

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

A recent investor day from this company “illustrated Aristocrat’s dominant cross-channel position, and enterprise-wide approach to game development, which improves commercialisation of its market leading content”.

Macquarie said it saw market-share opportunities for Aristocrat in land-based gaming, but was more wary of the company’s Product Madness mobile gaming division. 

The broker said Aristocrat was well-placed to deliver 10% to 15% earnings per share growth.

They also said the company would benefit from AI, with the benefits including “creativity enhancements, improved velocity to market, and advancing data analytics”.

Macquarie has a price target of $65 on Aristocrat shares compared to $61.38 at the time of writing.  

The post Three ASX 200 companies Macquarie says are a buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• PEXA Group responds to IPART draft service fee review
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Why ASX 200 energy stocks like Woodside and Santos shares got smashed in June
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and PEXA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended PEXA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining shares experienced an outstanding year in FY26.

The ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by miners, was the best-performing of the 11 market sectors, rising 47% and offering a 4.6% dividend yield.  

The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which captures more of the mineral explorers than the ASX 200, did even better.  

ASX 300 mining shares rose 53.2%, and delivered total returns of 58.59%. Wow. 

This all happened because Australia is in the midst of a new mining boom that will be different to the last one in the early 2000s to 2013.  

That boom was characterised by insatiable Chinese demand for iron ore to create steel for new infrastructure and residential apartments in the cities. 

The new mining boom today is being driven by the green energy transition, the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, and central bank purchasing of gold. 

The green energy transition and AI build-out are driving much higher demand for critical minerals, such as lithium, and base metals, such as copper. 

Lithium prices slumped in 2023-2025 due to global oversupply, but supply/demand finally rebalanced at the start of FY26.  

Lithium went on to top the charts of best-performing commodities in FY26 by a long way.

The lithium spodumene price rose about 280%, and carbonate soared 160%. 

So, it’s no surprise to see four lithium producers among the top five ASX 200 mining shares for capital growth last year. 

Let’s review. 

1. Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

ASX 200 gold share, Minerals 260, skyrocketed 508% to close out FY26 at 73 cents per share. 

The mineral explorer is building the Bullabulling Gold Project in Western Australia’s Eastern Goldfields region. 

Bullabulling is one of Australia’s largest near-term gold mines with a Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 130MT at 1.0g/t for 4.5Moz.  

Minerals 260 recently signed a $220 million funding deal with gold royalty company, Franco-Nevada Corporation, to advance and de-risk Bullabulling. 

2. Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

This ASX 200 lithium share roared 327% higher to $9.60 apiece in FY26.

Elevra has a globally diversified portfolio of mines and development projects across Québec, North Carolina, Ghana, and Western Australia.

Formed through the merger of Piedmont Lithium and Sayona Mining, Elevra’s flagship mine is the North American Lithium Project. 

3. PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

Formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, PLS Group shares rocketed 275% to close out FY26 at $5.02. 

PLS Group is the largest lithium miner on the ASX 200 by market capitalisation. 

The company’s flagship is the Pilgangoora Operation, the world’s largest independent hard-rock lithium mine. 

4. Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Iron ore and lithium producer Mineral Resources experienced 188% share price growth in FY26. 

The Mineral Resources share price finished the year at $62.65.

Mineral Resources shares were in rebound mode in FY26 after serious corporate governance issues and financial concerns had plagued the company in FY25. 

Founder Chris Ellison faced board-imposed financial penalties of $8.8 million and loss of remuneration of up to $9.6 million for reputational damage to the company.

The need to strengthen the balance sheet contributed to the board’s call not to pay dividends in FY25. No dividends have been paid in FY26, either. 

The Mineral Resources share price hit a 5-year low of $14.05 in April 2025 before commencing its rebound into FY26. 

For 1H FY26, Mineral Resources reported its strongest half-year result ever. The miner reported record revenue of $3.1 billion and EBITDA of $1.2 billion.

Rebounding lithium prices and the successful ramp-up of the Onslow iron ore project contributed to the result. 

5. Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

The Liontown share price leapt 197% higher to finish the year at $1.58.

Liontown owns one of Australia’s newest lithium operations, the Kathleen Valley Project, which only began production in early FY25. 

The ASX 200 lithium share had the same commodity tailwinds as other providers last year, as the company sought to ramp up production. 

For 1H FY26, Liontown reported a doubling in revenue year over year to $207.5 million, after a 70% lift in spodumene production. 

In 3Q FY26, Liontown became cash flow positive and achieved its 1.5Mtpa annualised underground run-rate ahead of schedule.  

The post 5 best ASX 200 mining shares of FY26 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX shares vs. property in FY26: Which investment outperformed?
• 6 ASX 200 large-cap shares that rose 60% to 275% in FY26
• The ASX 200 sector that outperformed the benchmark 7 to 1 in FY26. Can it keep delivering?
• Top ASX 200 share of each market sector in FY26
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Between S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares vs. property, bricks and mortar delivered the superior returns in FY26.

ASX 200 shares rose 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26.  

Meanwhile, the national median home value, which reflects all property types in a single data point, rose by 7.3%.

The total return, including rental income, was 11% over the 12 months, according to Cotality figures.

Let’s break down the numbers a bit more. 

Typical Australian houses now cost $1M!

The national median house price rose 7.8% to $1,025,085, and the median apartment price lifted 5.6% to $752,007 over FY26. 

Three interest rate rises in CY26 are having a significant impact on the property market. 

Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, said the June quarter marked “a significant shift in Australia’s housing dynamic”.  

Lawless commented:

Weaker conditions through the second quarter of the year are attributable to an array of downside factors.

Even before interest rates rose by seventy-five basis points, we were seeing affordability hurdles weighing on buyer demand.

Higher cost-of-living pressures, deeply pessimistic sentiment and a further dampening of demand via property taxation changes announced in the federal budget are all contributing to weaker housing conditions.

Typical landlords and first home buyers tend to operate in the same part of the market: at the lower end of the price spectrum.   

The expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Scheme in October has created more demand for lower-end properties. 

An expected decline in investor purchasing due to proposed changes to capital gains tax (CGT) may reduce competition for young first-home buyers.

The CGT changes may also weigh on sentiment so much that home values fall, further enhancing affordability for young buyers.

That’s the upside of the proposed CGT changes.

The downside is that an exodus of property investors would reduce the number of homes available to the 30% of Australians who rent, leading to higher rents.  

On top of that, current homeowners may have to cope with their cornerstone financial asset declining in value. 

How will CGT changes influence landlords? 

Australian residential real estate has a long and impressive multi-decade history of delivering exceptional capital gains.

Most landlords will tell you they are in it for the capital growth, not the rental yield.

Although rents have increased significantly since COVID, rental yields on property investments are notoriously low.

The national median gross rental yield is 3.7%, but that does not take into account all the holding costs of property.

Once landlords pay their loan repayments, strata fees, council rates, insurance, management expenses, and repairs, there’s usually a deficit, which is why they’re negatively geared.  

Negative gearing will be scrapped on established properties under the proposed CGT changes from 1 July 2027.

Investors will still be able to negatively gear new builds, but long-term data shows landlords strongly prefer established properties. 

So, it’s arguable as to whether investors will move to the new-home market en masse. 

Here’s what landlords are thinking about…

If the government intends to take more of a landlord’s capital gain, will long-standing landlords decide property is just too much trouble? 

Cotality analysts raised this in a recent article, commenting that investors “may now look to other (non-property) assets instead”. 

Could the CGT changes prompt landlords who have owned investment property for decades to take their discounted gains now? 

Their options for the sale proceeds are pretty attractive.

They could pop the money into a savings account yielding 5.5%. 

They could contribute the money to superannuation and pay just 15% tax on future earnings, 10% on future capital gains, and no tax after retirement. 

Perhaps they might invest in fully-franked ASX dividend shares.

Or they could buy the market’s most popular dividend-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF), Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY), with its 7.2% average three-year yield and 8.8% growth rate. 

Research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) shows that Australian landlords are predominantly high-income earners in their late 40s or early 50s, paying off a modest home mortgage. 

At their stage of life, running a property investment, with all its maintenance costs and tenant hassles, may start to look unappealing under the CGT changes, especially if home values fall. 

Treasury modelling suggests home values will keep growing, but at a 2% slower rate than otherwise under the CGT changes. Time will tell if that proves accurate.  

Shares vs. property in FY26: Houses

Here is the capital growth rate for houses in each market, ranked from highest to lowest.

Property market	Capital growth FY26	Median price
Perth	23.6%	$1,093,431
Regional Western Australia	22.1%	$751,927
Darwin	19.3%	$766,350
Brisbane	16.8%	$1,225,350
Regional Tasmania	12.8%	$646,512
AdelaideÂ	11.5%	$1,008,736
Hobart	9.7%	$803,094
Regional QueenslandÂ	14.3%	$864,094
Regional South Australia	11.6%	$569,830
Regional NSW	8%	$873,519
National	7.6%	$674,481
Regional Victoria	7.1%	$674,481
Canberra	3.5%	$1,035,828
Regional Northern Territory	0.8%	$445,087
Sydney	(0.1%)	$1,556,258
Melbourne	(-1.2%)	$948,482

Source: Cotality

Shares vs. property in FY26: Apartments

Here is the capital growth rate for apartments (and other strata properties like townhouses), ranked from highest to lowest.

Property market	Capital growth FY26	Median price
Perth	26.3%	$773,605
Darwin	20.9%	$472,572
Regional Western Australia	20.3%	$442,572
Brisbane	20.3%	$885,132
Regional Tasmania	14.7%	$487,510
Regional Queensland	12.1%	$833,791
Adelaide	11.7%	$695,151
Regional South Australia	9.2%	$394,057
Hobart	7.5%	$587,749
Regional Victoria	6.5%	$461,683
Regional NSW	6.4%	$687,320
National	5.6%	$752,007
Canberra	0.7%	$597,430
Sydney	1.1%	$898,623
Melbourne	(-0.2%)	$637,170
Regional Northern Territory	N/A	N/A

Source: Cotality

5 best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26

The best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26 outperformed real estate by a country mile.

Here is the capital growth rate of the five top ASX 200 shares of FY26.

ASX 200 shares	Capital growth FY26
4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)Â	1,786%
Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)	508%
Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)Â	327%
PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)Â	275%
Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)Â	261%

The post ASX shares vs. property in FY26: Which investment outperformed? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX 200 large-cap shares that rose 60% to 275% in FY26
• The ASX 200 sector that outperformed the benchmark 7 to 1 in FY26. Can it keep delivering?
• Top ASX 200 share of each market sector in FY26
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Up 275% in a year! Why this ASX defence stock refuses to cool down

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.