Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares are higher on Monday, but the bounce follows a brutal month for shareholders. 

At the time of writing, the Judo share price is up 2.27% to 90 cents. 

Despite the small lift today, the ASX bank stock is still down roughly 37% over the past month and almost 50% in 2026. 

That follows a massive 40% plunge on 25 June after Judo updated the market on its asset quality and trading performance. 

So, why is the stock getting attention again today?

Morgan Stanley wants more answers

According to The Australian, Morgan Stanley analysts have cut their target price on Judo by around 32% to $1.25.

The broker said Judo’s June update hurt confidence in its near-term earnings outlook. 

It also raised questions about its risk appetite, lending standards, broker use, and early risk detection.

Morgan Stanley lowered its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Judo by 10% to 22% across FY26 to FY28.

The broker is now forecasting FY27 profit before tax of around $179 million. That is well below Judo’s own FY27 guidance range of $210 million to $220 million. 

The analysts also want more disclosure around Judo’s loan book, particularly its loans to property operators and construction.

The report pointed to $2.7 billion of loans to property operators and $1 billion to construction.

What spooked the market in June

Judo’s update last month showed FY26 cost of risk is now expected to be between $116 million and $122 million.

The company said this was mainly due to higher specific provisions for 3 customer exposures.

FY26 profit before tax is expected to be between $163 million and $169 million, which still represents 30% growth from FY25.

Judo also said it remains on track for its existing FY26 guidance for gross loans and advances, net interest margin, and cost-to-income ratio. 

However, the profit growth isn’t the main issue right now. The focus is on whether the bad loans are isolated.

Keep in mind that Judo is a specialist business lender, not a major retail bank. Its model is built around lending to small and medium-sized businesses, often through relationship bankers.

Hence, when credit quality starts to slip, questions naturally turn to the rest of the book.

Foolish Takeaway

Today’s rise looks more like bargain hunting than a proper recovery. 

The share price has bounced from its recent lows, but Judo still needs to show these credit issues are under control.

The FY26 results in August should give investors a clearer view of the loan book, provisions, margins, and whether management can rebuild confidence. 

Until then, Judo shares may keep getting some support from bargain hunters after the heavy sell-off.

But don’t expect the share price to rally to previous levels just yet. 

The post Judo Bank shares rise despite Morgan Stanley price target cut appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is slipping on Monday as Friday’s strong rebound loses momentum.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is down 0.15% to 8,831 points.

That follows a 1.37% rise on Friday, when the index bounced back from the previous session’s weakness.

The ASX 200 has traded between 8,817.5 points and 8,856.8 points, meaning buyers have stepped in from the morning low.

But the market has struggled to hold those gains, with banks, supermarkets, and resources keeping the index in negative territory.

There are more losers than winners as well, with 116 shares falling, 74 rising, and 10 trading flat.

Let’s take a closer look.

Banks drag the index lower

The banks are doing a fair bit of the damage today.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are down 0.36% to $164.42, while Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are down 0.83% to $35.395.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are also lower, down 0.20% to $35.19, and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares are down 0.62% to $250.10.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is holding up a little better, with its shares up 0.13% to $38.62.

The supermarkets are adding to the pressure.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are down 1.28% to $39.27, while Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are down 0.67% to $23.125.

Some sectors are still fighting back

Despite the ASX 200 sitting in the red, there are still a few pockets of strength.

Energy shares are giving the market some support, even with oil prices slightly softer.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are up 1.26% to $28.22, while Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are up 2.11% to $7.25.

Healthcare is also helping.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are up 1.15% to $123.21, and ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) shares are up 1.28% to $30.89.

Gold shares are also drawing interest, with takeover activity giving the sector some extra attention.

Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are up 12% to $5.11 after receiving a takeover offer from Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD). Genesis shares are down 7.15% to $5.84.

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) shares are also higher, up 3.6% to $6.87.

Can the ASX 200 recover?

The ASX 200 isn’t falling heavily, but today’s move still shows how quickly Friday’s rally has faded away.

The market is getting support from energy, healthcare, and gold, but the banks are making it difficult for the index to turn positive.

From here, the ASX 200 probably needs financials to steady and a few more large-cap stocks to join the rebound.

Without that, today may end up looking like a breather after Friday’s strong rally.

 

The post ASX 200 slips as Friday’s rally fades appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Macquarie Group, and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Of all of the blue chip shares on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares probably command the largest army of long-term investors. 

This is likely down to a few factors. For one, CBA is one of the largest companies in Australia, and certainly the largest consumer-facing one. A good chunk of us bank with CBA, and use its products and services daily. For another, Commonwealth Bank used to be a publicly owned company before it was privatised back in the 1990s. The manner of its privatisation, where shares were offered to the general public in huge tranches, resulted in a huge retail base of ‘mum-and-dad investors’. 

Many of these original buyers of CBA still hold their shares today.

And they have always been lavishly rewarded for doing so. 

Back in the 1990s, CBA shares were floated at a few different prices, one as low as $5.40. Given the bank hit $25 a share in 1999, $60 in 2007, $95 in 2015 and $192 (its current all-time high) in 2025, selling this ASX bank stock has always looked like a mistake in hindsight.

Particularly when considering that these healthy capital gains have always been accompanied by even healthier dividend returns. Like its peers in the banking sector, CBA has tended to pay fat, fully franked and rising dividends, albeit with some short-term volatility.

Considering CBA shares’ history of capital growth, as well as its dividend track record, many investors might want to know how just how profitable this bank stock has been over the last ten years. That’s what we’ll be diving into today.

CBA shares: Just how much money have investors made since 2016?

So let’s assume an investor bought $10,000 worth of CBA shares back in July of 2016. Early in that month, you could have picked up this bank for just $72.56, meaning $10,000 would have got you approximately 138 shares.

At the time of writing, those same shares are going for $164.56 each, down 0.28% for the session thus far. That means our $10,000 would today be worth about $22,710, representing a compounded average growth rate of about 8.53% per annum. Not bad for a big ASX bank.

But that’s before we get to the dividends.

CBA has paid out two dividends every year since 2016. These have varied from year to year, but have trended upwards over time. For example, the bank doled out $4.29 worth of dividends over 2017, $3.50 in 2021, and $4.85 over 2025. 

Since mid-2026, investors have enjoyed a total of $41.81 in dividends per share. Our investors’ 138 shares would have thus yielded a total of roughly $5,770 in dividend income over the last ten years as well.

So our investor who started with $10,000 ten years ago would today have a position worth approximately $28,480. That represents an overall compounded growth rate of 11.03% per annum. Not a bad return for a bank. But let’s see what CBA shares deliver over the next ten years.

The post Owned CBA shares for 10 years? Here’s how much money you’ve made appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Should I buy, hold, or sell CBA shares in July?
• This is the ASX bank stock I would buy today for franked dividend income

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.