There is a number that haunts Australian retirement planning. For years it was $1 million. Now it is the ASFA benchmark. Either way, the message lands the same: you are probably behind.

So when your superannuation balance reads $500,000, it is easy to assume the answer is no.

But that headline figure hides something important.

The benchmark everyone quotes assumes you fund your entire retirement yourself. Most Australians do not.

The benchmark only tells half the story

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) says a single homeowner needs about $630,000 in super for a comfortable retirement, while a couple needs roughly $730,000. Those targets buy a genuinely good lifestyle: private health cover, a reasonable car, the odd holiday, and regular dinners out.

On paper, $500,000 falls short of the single figure.

Here is the part the benchmark quietly builds in. Those numbers already assume you receive a part Age Pension on top of your own drawdown. The pension is not a backstop you hope to avoid. It is baked into the maths.

And it is more generous than many people expect. From 20 March 2026, the maximum single rate is around $31,200 per year, while a couple can receive close to $47,000 combined, including supplements.

That changes the conversation entirely.

Single or couple changes everything

This is where $500,000 splits into two very different stories.

A single homeowner with $500,000 sits above the full-pension assets threshold of $321,500, but well below the part-pension cut-off of $722,000. They would draw a part Age Pension, then top it up from their super. Combine a sensible drawdown with that pension and the result lands comfortably above a modest lifestyle, though still shy of the full comfortable benchmark.

A couple with $500,000 between them is a different picture. Their combined balance sits just above the full-pension assets threshold of $481,500. That points to close to the full couple Age Pension, plus drawdown from their super. Together, that can push annual income within striking distance of the comfortable couple standard.

Same balance. Two outcomes. The difference is simply who is drawing on it.

The real variable is you

Numbers like these are starting points, not verdicts.

Owning your home outright matters enormously, because rent in retirement can swallow a large share of any budget. Retiring at 67 rather than 60 matters too, since every early year is a year you fund alone before the pension begins.

Then there is the question only you can answer. What does your version of comfortable actually cost?

Some retirees are content below the ASFA comfortable line. Others want more travel and more margin for the unexpected. $500,000 can stretch a long way for one person and feel tight for another.

The case for aiming higher

None of this is an argument to stop at $500,000.

A larger balance is not about luxury. It is a margin of safety. The cost of living rarely moves backwards, and a bigger buffer absorbs the steady climb in groceries, energy, and healthcare without forcing you to cut back.

The years before you finish work can be the most powerful stretch of your investing life. Invest well through them, and over the long run the share market has rewarded those who stay the course.

The Foolish takeaway

So, can you retire on $500,000 of super in 2026?

For some Australians, the honest answer is yes, with help. The Age Pension does far more heavy lifting than the headline benchmarks suggest, especially for couples who own their home.

It may not fund a luxurious retirement, and markets will never move in a straight line. But comfortable and secure is well within reach for plenty of people sitting on this balance.

The figure that matters is not the one the headlines fixate on. It is the income your super and the pension generate together, set against the life you want to live.

$500,000 is not the finish line everyone fears. For some, it is already enough.

The post Can you really retire on $500,000 of super in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a small decline. The benchmark index dropped 0.15% to 8,816.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Tuesday despite a relatively poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.3%, but the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% and the Nasdaq sank 1.3%.

A2 Milk shares given hold rating

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) shares are fully valued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its hold rating with an improved price target of $6.90 (from $6.75). It said: ” At current share price levels the stock sits at the more expensive side of the consumer sector (on a FY25-28e PEG ratio) and is likely to be materially more volatile given the polarising views on earnings expectations into the August guidance statement. Our forecasts largely split the divide and for this reason our Hold rating is unchanged.”

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a poor session after oil prices dropped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.8% to US$75.19 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 2.8% to US$78.33 a barrel. This follows reports that US-Iran talks are going well.

Gold price softens

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a soft session after the gold price weakened overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1% to US$4,205.3 an ounce. Inflation and rate hike concerns continue to weigh on the precious metal.

Buy EOS shares

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) shares are good value according to Bell Potter. In response to the announcement of a US$124 million (A$175 million) Slinger counter-drone contract, the broker has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $12.50 (from $10.60). It said: ” We retain our Buy rating and raise our TP to $12.50/sh. EOS is positioned as a market leader across many C-UAS verticals and is leveraged to increasing defence budget allocations to C-UAS technologies. The conditional JV announcement presents a clear path towards producing HELW systems at scale and is therefore a significant development. We expect further JV’s to be signed over the coming years. The agreement suggests there is a strong likelihood of major HELW order intake over the next 12 months from the UAE.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has come off the boil.

The mining giant is trading around $60.34, down from its 52-week and record high of $65.98. That puts the BHP share price about 8% below its recent peak.

For a company of BHP’s size, that is a meaningful pullback. It also raises a fair question for investors: is this a chance to buy? I think it could be.

The Jansen update was disappointing

Part of the recent weakness can be linked to BHP’s update on its Jansen potash project.

The company has completed a detailed review of Stage 2 and now expects the total investment estimate to rise from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion, including contingencies. First production is now expected in late FY31, two years later than planned.

That is clearly disappointing.

A US$2 billion cost increase is substantial, and the timing shift means investors will have to wait longer for the next stage of Jansen to contribute. BHP said the majority of the increase relates to additional construction hours, more materials, and escalation identified through its review.

I do not think investors should simply brush that aside. Large mining projects are complex, and cost discipline is important.

At the same time, I do not think the update changes the entire investment case for BHP.

The company still expects Jansen Stage 2 to deliver approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum of production. After ramp-up, combined output from Jansen is expected to be 8.5 million tonnes per annum, which BHP says would represent around 10% of total global potash production.

The project is now taking longer and costing more, but it still gives BHP exposure to a commodity tied to food security and agricultural productivity. I see that as a useful future boost rather than the main reason to own the stock today.

Copper remains the bigger attraction

For me, the strongest reason to stay positive on BHP is copper.

The world is becoming more electricity-intensive. Power grids, renewable energy, data centres, electric vehicles, industrial systems, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure all require more copper.

At the same time, copper supply can be difficult to bring on quickly. New mines require huge capital, long approvals, technical expertise, and often many years of development.

That is a powerful position for a company with BHP’s scale.

Iron ore remains important to group earnings, and commodity prices will always move around. But I think BHP’s copper exposure is becoming more valuable as investors look further ahead.

If copper prices remain elevated over the long term, BHP could be well placed to keep producing strong cash flows.

Valuation and income

The pullback also makes the valuation a little more interesting.

According to CommSec, consensus estimates point to earnings per share of $3.55 in FY26 and $3.81 in FY27.

At a share price of around $60.34, that puts BHP on a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17 times FY26 earnings and 15.8 times FY27 earnings.

That is not a screaming bargain for a cyclical miner, but it looks reasonable if investors believe copper, iron ore, and future-facing commodities can support stronger earnings over time.

The dividend also remains part of the appeal. CommSec forecasts dividends per share of $2.12 in FY26 and $2.02 in FY27, implying dividend yields of around 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Those yields are useful, especially alongside the potential for capital growth if commodity markets remain supportive.

Foolish takeaway

I think the BHP share price remains a buy for long-term investors.

The Jansen update is frustrating, and it reminds investors that even world-class miners can face cost and schedule pressure on major projects. But BHP’s broader position remains attractive.

The company has scale, a strong asset base, iron ore cash generation, and growing exposure to copper. Potash still adds a longer-term option, even if the timeline has moved further out.

After an 8% pullback from its record high, I think the BHP share price offers a reasonable entry point for investors who can handle the ups and downs that come with owning a global miner.

The post Down 8%, is the BHP share price a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.