Stock Pick

  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

    Man and woman sitting at table with the man looking a bit puzzled at his laptop.

    On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) had a disappointing session and dropped into the red. The benchmark index fell 0.65% to 8,727.9 points.

    Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to fall

    It looks set to be a subdued session for Australian investors following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq sank 1.9%.

    Annual general meetings

    A number of ASX 200 shares are holding their annual general meetings on Thursday and could provide trading updates. This includes 4×4 parts company ARB Corporation Ltd (ASX: ARB), mining giant South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), and wine leader Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE).

    Oil prices rise

    ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session following a positive night for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.1% to US$95.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.4% to US$106.09 a barrel. This follows news of the sinking of a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

    Buy Megaport shares

    Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) shares could have major upside potential according to Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the cloud infrastructure provider’s shares with a trimmed price target of $26.00. It said: “We continue to have a positive view on the stock due to valuation (FY28 EV/EBITDA of only 6x), strong forecast growth (which is fully funded), track record of execution, high visibility of earnings, AI exposure and differentiated business model (distributed inference).”

    Gold price drops

    It could be a tough session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price dropped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.35% to US$4,120.8 an ounce. A hotter than expected US inflation reading has sparked rate hike fears.

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Megaport, Treasury Wine Estates, and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ARB Corporation, Megaport, and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ARB Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why this ASX dividend share is a retiree’s dream for 2027

    Woman with headphones on relaxing and looking at her phone happily.

    Retirees may be looking for ASX dividend shares that can provide a good dividend yield and consistency. I think one of the top stocks investors should consider is WCM Global Growth Ltd (ASX: WQG).

    I regularly highlight this stock because I truly believe it’s one of the best ASX options for passive income in both the short and long term.

    This business operates as a listed investment company (LIC). An LIC invests in shares or other assets on behalf of shareholders, which I think is useful because it provides exposure to shares we may not already own.

    WCM Global Growth is an LIC that owns a portfolio of between 20 and 40 stocks that the investment team believes are quality global companies, primarily in high-growth consumer, technology, and healthcare sectors.

    In my view, there are three great factors for retirees to love this ASX dividend share.

    Appealing portfolio

    I think WCM Global Growth’s investment strategy is really effective at generating returns.

    It goes without saying that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Having noted that, the WCM Global Growth portfolio’s net return has been 15.6% per year since its inception in June 2017. That’s strong long-term performance and can support solid dividend income.

    The fund doesn’t just invest in any international company; it only invests in quality businesses that are improving.

    There are two factors WCM looks for when investing.

    First, it’s looking for businesses with a strengthening competitive advantage, which could also be described as an expanding economic moat. Competitive advantages can come in a variety of forms, such as cost advantages, intellectual property (IP), network effects, and so on.

    One of the main ways WCM measures whether competitive advantages are strengthening is by tracking whether return on invested capital (ROIC) is rising.

    The LIC also wants to see that the company has a corporate culture that supports the expansion of the economic moat. WCM thinks culture is the key determinant of a company’s ability to deliver a consistently growing moat. It has developed a proprietary approach to analysing corporate culture.

    By using this strategy, it has built a portfolio that’s spread across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

    Large dividend yield

    WCM Global Growth is very transparent about the dividends it intends to pay, making it easy to see what the dividend yield for the year ahead could be.

    The ASX dividend share has announced it intends to pay quarterly dividends totalling 10.1 cents per share between now and September 2027.

    At the time of writing, that forecast payout translates into a dividend yield of 5% excluding franking credits and 7.1% including franking credits.

    I think most retirees would be happy with that yield, particularly when combined with the pace of growth of the dividends.

    Growing payments

    WCM Global Growth has a stated progressive dividend policy.

    It started paying a dividend in FY19, and it has grown it every year since then. In 2023, it started paying dividends quarterly and has hiked the payment every quarter since then.

    The quarterly dividend for September 2026 was 41.6% higher than the quarterly payment for September 2023. It has guided that the September 2027 payment will be 10.6% higher than the September 2026 payment.

    I believe the ASX dividend share’s payout can continue to grow at a pleasing pace and be very rewarding for retirees.

    The post Why this ASX dividend share is a retiree's dream for 2027 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Wcm Global Growth. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27

    Three satisfied miners with their arms crossed looking at the camera proudly.

    ASX mining shares have had a spectacular run due to rapidly rising commodity prices in CY25 and CY26.

    In FY26, the ASX 200 materials sector, which is dominated by the miners, shot the lights out for investors.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) soared 47% and produced total returns, including dividends, of 52%. 

    That compares to a 3% rise and total returns of 7% for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    A staggering outperformance of 7:1.

    The S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index (ASX: XMM), which includes an extra 100 mineral explorers, did even better.  

    ASX 300 mining shares rose 53%, and delivered total returns of 59% in FY26.

    These explosive returns followed staggering increases in many commodity prices.

    Commodity price surge

    In FY26, the best price growth among commodities relevant to Australian mining was lithium spodumene, soaring 278%.

    Lithium is a key component in rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), e-bikes, smartphones, and energy storage systems.

    In CY25, silver experienced the best price growth, up 147%.

    Silver is an industrial metal used in solar panels, EVs, tech devices, and data centres due to its superior conductivity to copper.

    The long-term tailwinds of decarbonisation and the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out contributed to mining’s outperformance in FY26.

    The ongoing structural change in central banks purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries also played a role.

    Experts say we’re in a new mining boom that will be different to the 2000s because it will be led by critical minerals, not iron ore.

    While these long-term tailwinds will remain for decades, that doesn’t automatically translate to vertical commodity price growth.

    This is made clear in the 5-year outlook for commodities just published by the Federal Department of Industry, Science, and Resources.

    Commodity price predictions FY27

    For the period FY26 to FY31, the government reckons FY27 is going to be the strongest year for many commodity prices.

    According to the resources department’s latest Resources and Energy Quarterly:

    Commodity prices are expected to peak in 2026–27 and then drift lower.

    This is important information for ASX investors because commodity prices directly impact miners’ earnings, and thus, their share prices.

    The report also looks at energy commodity prices.

    In CY26, Brent crude oil, gas, and coal prices have surged due to the US-Iran conflict and Middle East supply disruptions.

    This contributed to energy ranking second (behind materials) among the 11 ASX 200 market sectors for total returns in FY26.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) increased 9.37% and produced total returns of 14.51%.

    The energy sector has the same forecasted commodity price trend.

    For the period FY26 to FY31, the government expects four out of five energy commodity prices to peak in FY27.

    This will have a direct impact on ASX energy shares.

    Let’s take a look at the forecasts.

    Five-year outlook

    The report outlines the Federal Government’s predictions for average annual commodity prices in FY27 and FY31.

    There is a realised nominal price for FY26, a forecast price for FY27, and a projected price for FY31.

    As you’ll see, over the next 5-year period, seven of the following 10 commodity prices are expected to peak in FY27.

    Metals and minerals commodity prices

    Iron ore price (62% fe)

    FY26: US$92 per tonne

    FY27: US$83 per tonne

    FY31: US$72 per tonne

    ASX iron ore mining shares: BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

    Copper price

    FY26: US$11,767 per tonne

    FY27: US$13,754 per tonne

    FY31: US$12,786 per tonne

    ASX copper mining shares: Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)

    Lithium price (6% spodumene concentrate)

    FY26: US$1,532 per tonne

    FY27: US$2,499 per tonne

    FY31: US$1,684 per tonne

    ASX lithium mining shares: PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

    Gold price

    FY26: US$4,268 per ounce

    FY27: US$4,534 per ounce

    FY31: US$4,149 per ounce

    ASX gold mining shares: Newmont CDI (ASX: NEM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)

    Nickel prices

    FY26: US$16,348 per tonne

    FY27: US$17,226 per tonne

    FY31: US$18,473 per tonne

    ASX nickel shares: IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC)

    Energy commodity prices

    Brent crude oil price

    FY26: US$79 per barrel

    FY27: US$87 per barrel

    FY31: US$68 per barrel

    ASX oil shares: Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD), Viva Energy Ltd (ASX: VEA)

    LNG prices

    FY26: A$13 per gigajoule

    FY27: A$16 per gigajoule

    FY31: A$11 per gigajoule

    ASX energy shares: Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

    Metallurgical coal price

    FY26: US$213 per tonne

    FY27: US$233 per tonne

    FY31: US$225 per tonne

    ASX met coal shares: Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

    Thermal coal price

    FY26: US$117 per tonne

    FY27: US$128 per tonne

    FY31: US$121 per tonne

    ASX thermal coal producers: New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC), Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

    Uranium price

    FY26: US$82 per pound

    FY27: US$93 per pound

    FY31: US$113 per pound

    ASX uranium shares: Paladin Energy Ltd  (ASX: PDN), Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE), Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL)

    The post Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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