Origin Energy vs Woodside Energy shares

When it comes to top energy names on the ASX, Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) both sit high on the list. Everyday investors often weigh up Origin Energy and Woodside Energy shares because they’re leading players powering Australian homes, vehicles, and industries, with large market capitalisations and strong dividend histories. With both now paying fully franked dividends and featuring on a range of watchlists, I think it’s worth looking closely at which is better placed to beat the market over the next five years.

The case for Origin Energy

Origin Energy is a broad-based energy group, supplying electricity, natural gas, solar, and LPG to households and businesses nationwide. Its integrated model spans energy exploration and production, power generation (including renewables), and retailing, giving it diverse revenue streams. Origin’s roots go back to the 1940s, but the company as we know it was formed after a 2000 demerger and has since become one of the heavier hitters on the ASX.

A few things stand out from the numbers. First, Origin boasts a 5.19% fully franked dividend yield, which is attractive for income seekers, especially when combined with 100% franking credits to boost after-tax returns. Its trailing P/E ratio sits at 12.66, and year-to-date returns are a steady 5.74%, suggesting share price stability with income. Origin’s 2026 interim and final dividends were both 30 cents per share, fully franked, and the company’s payout has trended upwards in recent years. According to its most recent public description, Origin operates across Australia, PNG, and the South Pacific, which also helps smooth revenue from any single market.

The case for Woodside Energy

Woodside Energy is Australia’s largest independent dedicated oil and gas company and has a truly global footprint, especially after merging with BHP’s oil and gas portfolio. Woodside dominates domestic offshore oil and gas production and runs a large fleet of production facilities and assets in Australia and abroad.

Woodside’s scale shines through in the fundamentals. With a market cap of $63.12 billion, it dwarfs Origin. Its year-to-date return is particularly eye-catching at 45.87%, indicating much stronger price momentum this year. Woodside’s dividend yield is 4.97% (also fully franked), based on a higher dividend per share of $1.63, thanks to the company’s significant earnings. Its trailing P/E ratio is slightly higher at 14.27 versus Origin’s 12.66, and earnings per share sit at 1.605. Notably, Woodside’s massive size and global footprint may provide it with resilience and potential for future expansion.

Valuation comparison

With both companies operating across the energy value chain, but Woodside more focused on oil and gas and Origin more diversified within energy, their valuation multiples aren’t directly like-for-like. Still, some differences stand out:

Metric	Origin Energy	Woodside Energy
Market Cap	$19.93 billion	$63.12 billion
P/E Ratio	12.66	14.27
Dividend Yield	5.19% (100% franked)	4.97% (100% franked)
Earnings per Share	0.912	1.605
Dividend per Share	0.60	1.63
Year to Date Return	5.74%	45.87%

Origin offers a marginally higher yield, while Woodside shows much stronger recent share price gains.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 14 October 2026:

• Origin Energy: Closed at $11.57 on 14 Oct 2026 (up 0.17% for the day). The YTD return is +5.74%, reflecting modest gains so far this year, with a fairly steady short-term trend.
• Woodside Energy: Closed at $33.20 on 14 Oct 2026 (up 1.28% for the day). The YTD return is a whopping +45.87%, and recent days show strong upward momentum, with gains of over 2% on two of the past five sessions.

Which is the better buy?

Looking at the head-to-head, both Origin and Woodside offer quality, franked dividends and mature energy businesses. However, for investors chasing long-term outperformance, I’d lean toward Woodside Energy. My main reasons? That 45.87% year-to-date return isn’t just a flash in the pan; it suggests the market is rewarding Woodside’s global scale, successful merger execution, and growth opportunities from its broadened asset base. Its higher EPS and robust dividend per share underpin a sustainable payout. While the yield is fractionally lower, the magnitude of recent share price gains tips the balance for me.

Origin is a solid, steady option with slightly better yield, and its diversification could appeal to conservative or income-focused investors. But if I had to back one to beat the market over the next five years based on this data, my pick would be Woodside, given its track record of strong price momentum and the scale to take advantage of any future upswings in global energy markets.

The post Origin Energy vs Woodside Energy: Which ASX 200 share is more likely to beat the market? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27
• Woodside, New Hope, Flight Centre shares: Buy, hold, or sell?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Which does Macquarie prefer out of AGL and Origin?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.2% lower at 8,713.5 points on Thursday.

Let’s check out some new ratings and opinions from two market experts (courtesy The Bull). 

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

The Siteminder share price is $2.50, down 5% today and down 66% over 12 months. 

Blake Halligan from Gray Perry Wealth Advisers has a buy rating on this S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) tech share. 

Halligan said: 

SiteMinder provides hotel commerce software that helps accommodation providers manage distribution, bookings and revenue.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) rose 24.1 per cent on a constant currency and organic basis in full year 2026 when compared to the prior corresponding period. Transaction ARR increased 37.1 per cent.

SiteMinder’s improving unit economics remain a key attraction.

As SiteMinder expands its customer base and increases product penetration, these investments should support stronger recurring revenue and operating leverage over time.

BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL)

The Bluescope share price is $30.63, down 0.7% today and up 47% over 12 months. 

Tom Fairchild from Lazarus Capital Partners has a hold rating on this ASX 200 materials share. 

Fairchild commented: 

BSL is Australia’s largest steelmaker, with major operations in North America and Asia.

Its pricing power is primarily generated from premium brands, such as COLORBOND and TRUECORE, which achieved record Australian despatches. US tariffs lifting steel spreads at its Ohio-based North Star mill also assisted its pricing power.

Underlying earnings before interest and tax of $A1.27 billion rose 72 per cent on the prior corresponding period despite softer Australian pricing and higher raw material costs.

After rejecting a $30 per share takeover bid in January, BlueScope plans to deliver $3 per share in returns in financial year 2027.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is $12.46, down 0.8% today and up 12% over 12 months. 

Halligan has a sell rating on this ASX 200 gold mining share.

He said: 

Evolution Mining produces gold and copper from operations in Australia and Canada.

The company delivered record cash generation, a net cash position and higher shareholder returns in full year 2026, supported by strong gold and copper prices. However, sustaining record earnings relies on gold and copper prices remaining high in a volatile world.

Future performance depends on consistent delivery across major operations, disciplined investment and continuing replacement of mined reserves.

After a recent and substantial share price recovery, the valuation leaves limited room for operational setbacks or weaker metal prices.

Investors may want to consider taking profits at current levels.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Siteminder, Bluescope Steel, Evolution shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27
• Evolution Mining lifts cash flow and holds full year guidance in September quarter
• Evolution Mining vs Northern Star Resources: Which gold stock is better for a $1,000 investment?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A lot can change in a decade or more, particularly in the ASX share market.

Some companies will struggle to keep up with changing technology and consumer habits, while others could grow into much larger businesses.

For me, the challenge is identifying ASX shares that have what it takes to remain successful over such a long period.

Here are three ASX shares I think could still be thriving in 2040.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

Coles is my first pick because I think it has the foundations of a business that can remain successful for decades.

Australians will always need groceries, and Coles has spent years building the stores, distribution networks, and supplier relationships needed to serve millions of customers.

I think that gives it a strong starting point. But what I like most is how the business could evolve between now and 2040.

Coles has been investing heavily in automated distribution centres and more efficient fulfilment operations. These investments should help reduce costs, improve productivity, and support its growing online business.

I also expect technology to play a bigger role in how Coles manages inventory, predicts demand, and serves customers.

If management continues making the right investments, I think the company could become considerably more efficient over time.

Competition will remain strong, and consumers will always be sensitive to grocery prices. Nevertheless, I like Coles’ position in an essential industry and believe it could be a much stronger business by 2040.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

REA Group is another ASX share I would be comfortable backing over the next 14 years.

Its realestate.com.au platform has become a central part of how Australians search for property. I think that position gives REA a significant competitive advantage.

Homebuyers and renters visit the platform because it has an enormous selection of property listings. Meanwhile, real estate agents want their properties advertised where they can reach the largest audience. That creates a powerful relationship between the platform, its users, and advertisers.

I also think there is considerable scope for REA to keep developing its offering. Property search is only one part of the process of buying or selling a home. REA can continue expanding into related services, including property data, financing, and tools that help consumers make decisions.

Its international operations offer another potential source of growth.

Housing market conditions will influence results from year to year, but I expect digital property services to become even more important by 2040.

And I think REA is exceptionally well positioned to benefit.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

My final pick is TechnologyOne, an Australian software company that I think has an excellent opportunity to keep expanding internationally.

TechnologyOne provides enterprise software to organisations including universities, local councils, and government departments.

These customers rely on its systems to manage important functions such as finances, payroll, and administration. Once this technology becomes embedded in an organisation’s operations, replacing it can be expensive and disruptive.

I think that creates a strong foundation for long-term customer relationships.

TechnologyOne has also successfully transitioned customers to its software-as-a-service platform, providing a more predictable revenue base and opportunities to keep improving its products.

Looking towards 2040, I particularly like its potential to grow beyond Australia. The United Kingdom offers a significant opportunity as public sector organisations modernise their technology.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could also help TechnologyOne deliver more capable software and improve productivity for customers.

There will be competition and technological changes to navigate, but I think TechnologyOne has the foundations to become a much larger global software business.

Foolish takeaway

I think the best long-term investments are businesses that can keep finding ways to grow as the world changes around them.

That is what I would be looking for when choosing ASX shares to hold until 2040.

All three of these companies have strong market positions and opportunities to keep building on their success. I would be happy to buy them today and give them the next 14 years to prove their worth.

The post 3 ASX shares I think could still be thriving in 2040 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX shares hit by broker downgrades this week
• 3 reasons I would invest $10,000 in Coles shares
• Buying Coles shares? Here’s the dividend yield you’ll get today
• How much could the REA Group share price rise in the next year?
• I screened the ASX for quality and value. These 5 shares stood out

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.