On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was out of form and ended the day in the red. The benchmark index fell 0.2% to 8,785.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

It looks set to be a difficult session for Australian investors on Thursday after a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 47 points or 0.55% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 1.1%, the S&P 500 is 0.35% lower, and the Nasdaq is down slightly.

Buy Minerals 260 shares

Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6) shares could have major upside according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating on the ASX gold stock with an improved price target of $1.40. This implies potential upside of approximately 120%. It said: “MI6 offers gold exposure via the 6.2Moz Bullabulling MRE, valuation uplift through discovery success, project advancement and de-risking as the BGP progresses towards production. MI6 holds ~$250m cash, sufficient to fund to Final Investment Decision (FID) in early CY27, long-lead items and early site works. We lift our valuation to $1.40/sh and retain our Speculative Buy recommendation.”

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares such as Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a great day after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 4.4% to US$73.57 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 5.2% to US$78.04 a barrel. Traders were bidding oil higher following an escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Uranium miners on watch

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) and other ASX uranium shares will be on watch today. There are reports that the Australian government could sign an agreement with India this week that delivers on a nuclear co-operation plan between the two countries that was signed over a decade ago. Boss Energy shares certainly need a boost. They are down 22% year to date.

Gold price tumbles

It could be a poor session for ASX 200 gold shares including Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price tumbled overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.5% to US$4,096.85 an ounce. Rising oil prices have sparked inflation and rate hike concerns.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

July could be a good time to revisit your income portfolio.

But which ASX dividend shares could be worth considering?

Let’s take a look at five top options for this month.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA could be an ASX dividend share to look at in July.

It owns energy infrastructure, including gas pipelines, processing assets, storage, and electricity transmission interests.

These assets play an important role in moving energy around the country. Households, manufacturers, power stations, and major industrial customers all need reliable infrastructure, regardless of whether the economic backdrop is strong or weak.

That gives APA a defensive position in an income portfolio.

The energy transition will continue to change the sector over time, but reliability, storage, firming, and transmission are likely to remain important. This could support the company’s cash flows and distributions over the long term.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

Another ASX dividend share to look at is Charter Hall Long WALE REIT.

It offers exposure to property income with long lease structures. The company’s portfolio includes properties leased to government tenants, major corporates, and operators across sectors such as convenience retail, industrial, office, and social infrastructure.

Given that tenants are locked into long-term leases, this can give investors more visibility over future earnings and dividends. That can be valuable when markets are uncertain.

Interest rates and property valuations remain key risks, but a long lease portfolio can be a good option for investors who want income backed by contracted rental streams.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN)

Harvey Norman is more than a retailer selling televisions, couches, computers, and appliances.

It also owns a significant property portfolio, which gives the business a different shape from many other consumer-facing companies.

Retail earnings can move with household spending, housing activity, and consumer confidence. But the property backing gives Harvey Norman an extra layer of asset support and flexibility.

Things may be tough for retailers at the moment, but when the retail cycle improves, the company will be positioned to generate strong cash flow and pay attractive fully franked dividends.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban could be a top ASX dividend share for income investors in July.

The company owns and operates toll roads across major cities in Australia and North America.

Its roads help commuters, freight operators, airport travellers, and businesses move around major cities more efficiently. This ties the company to urban population growth, congestion, and the value people place on saving time.

Traffic volumes can soften during weak periods, but major road networks are hard to replicate. Once built, they can remain important infrastructure for decades.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

Universal Store is a youth-focused fashion retailer. This means it doesn’t have the defensive profile of infrastructure or property. But it does have a clear customer niche, a curated store format, and exposure to brands and trends that resonate with younger shoppers.

When retailers get this right, cash generation can be strong.

Universal Store also has growth options through new stores, online sales, and its owned brands.

Its dividend may not be as predictable as some larger defensive names, but its growth profile could make it an interesting option for investors who want more than a traditional slow-moving ASX dividend share.

The post 5 top ASX dividend shares to buy in July appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group, Harvey Norman, and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) is an ASX bank share that can divide opinion.

It is a major bank with a large customer base, an attractive dividend profile, and a strong position in business banking.

But investors also need to think about the economy, bad debts, mortgage competition, and whether bank valuations leave enough room for upside.

So, are NAB shares a buy, hold, or sell this month?

The NAB share price looks reasonable

The NAB share price is currently around $39.59.

That compares with a 52-week range of $35.48 to $49.45, meaning the shares are still trading well below their recent high.

That does not automatically make NAB a bargain. But I do think the pullback has made the valuation more appealing for investors looking at the big banks.

Using CommSec consensus estimates, NAB is expected to generate earnings per share of $2.43 in FY26 and $2.53 in FY27.

Based on the current share price, that puts the bank on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 16.3 times FY26 earnings and 15.7 times FY27 earnings.

I think that looks reasonable for a major Australian bank with NAB’s market position.

The dividend case is solid

NAB also offers an attractive income profile.

Consensus dividend forecasts are $1.70 per share in FY26 and $1.72 per share in FY27.

At the current share price, that implies forward dividend yields of roughly 4.3% and 4.35%.

That is not the highest yield investors can find on the ASX, but I think it is attractive when paired with the scale and profitability of a major bank.

Dividends are never guaranteed, especially in banking. Credit quality, regulation, capital requirements, and economic conditions all matter. But for investors wanting passive income from ASX shares, I think NAB’s forecast yield is strong enough to deserve attention.

Why I’d call NAB a buy

My verdict is that NAB shares are a buy this month.

The main reason is the bank’s business banking strength.

Retail banking is a challenging market. Mortgage competition remains intense, deposits are valuable, and households are still dealing with cost-of-living pressure.

NAB’s business banking exposure gives it a different angle. Businesses need loans, deposits, payment services, transaction accounts, and working capital support. Those relationships can be deeper and more valuable than a single home loan.

That does not remove economic risk. If conditions weaken, business confidence and credit quality could come under pressure.

But I like NAB’s position in a part of banking where relationships, scale, and service still count.

Foolish takeaway

I think NAB shares are a buy this month.

The share price remains well below its 52-week high, the valuation looks reasonable on consensus earnings forecasts, and the dividend yield is attractive.

The banking sector still has risks, so I would not expect a perfectly smooth ride. But I think NAB’s business banking strength gives it a useful edge in the current environment.

For investors looking for ASX bank exposure, I would be happy to buy NAB shares at current levels.

The post Are NAB shares a buy, hold, or sell this month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.