Of the economic data releases that regularly move ASX shares, few matter more than China’s monthly inflation figures.

Today, China’s National Bureau of Statistics publishes June CPI and PPI data.

The reading will provide the most current picture of whether China’s economy is reflating amid commodity and energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, or whether domestic demand remains too weak to sustain higher prices.

Shareholders in BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) should keep a close eye on these developments.

What the recent trend shows

May CPI held steady at 1.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 1.3% market expectation. This confirmed that consumer-level inflation remained contained and gave Beijing room to maintain accommodative policy settings.

May PPI told a more inflationary story, rising 3.9% year-on-year, the fastest pace since July 2022.

This was driven by surging commodity and energy prices from the Iran war supply disruptions.

Mining prices rose 15.8% year-on-year and raw materials climbed 9.2%.

Both categories are directly relevant to the revenue BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue generate from selling iron ore and copper into the Chinese market.

What it means for BHP

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is the most diversified of the three ASX shares, with earnings spread across iron ore, copper, and potash.

Its copper exposure makes it particularly sensitive to any sign that Chinese industrial activity is weakening.

BHP is also down after workers announced plans to strike at its WA iron ore terminal on 16 July.

This adds to a company-specific complication alongside the broader China data sensitivity.

What it means for Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) is the most diversified across commodities, with exposure to iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium.

That breadth means Rio’s earnings are sensitive to a wider array of Chinese demand signals simultaneously.

Rio Tinto shares fell 7.1% in June as the temporary ceasefire eased oil prices and pulled commodity sentiment lower.

A strong PPI print tomorrow confirming China’s factory inflation remains elevated would be positive for Rio’s revenue outlook across all three of its primary commodities.

What it means for Fortescue

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) is the most purely exposed of the three to China’s iron ore demand, with virtually all revenue coming from a single commodity sold almost exclusively into the Chinese steel market.

Fortescue fell 4.2% in June, underperforming both BHP and Rio Tinto. This partly reflected the company’s higher sensitivity to Chinese demand deterioration.

Furthermore, Bloomberg has reported that China’s state-backed iron ore buyer has signalled plans to blacklist Fortescue’s Super Special Fines product from 15 July, a company-specific headwind that adds to the near-term risk around tomorrow’s data.

A constructive June PPI print would help offset that headwind. On the other hand, a weak print would amplify it.

A note on the data for these ASX shares

June’s figures cover a period when the Strait of Hormuz briefly reopened following the ceasefire before last night’s fresh US strikes reversed that dynamic.

Investors should not interpret a softer June PPI print purely as a sign of Chinese demand weakness.

It may also reflect the brief period of ceasefire-driven commodity price relief before hostilities resumed.

Foolish takeaway for ASX shares

China’s June CPI and PPI data drops today and will give the most current indication on whether Chinese industrial activity can sustain the commodity demand underpinning BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue.

A positive print would reinforce the bull case for all three ASX shares.

A surprise to the downside, combined with the other headwinds each stock is currently carrying, would add further near-term pressure.

The post China’s CPI and PPI data drops today. Here is the potential impact for these ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• I’d buy these 5 ASX dividend investments for retirement income
• BHP shares may not double in 12 months but this ASX mining share could
• These ASX shares could generate $10,000 per year in passive income
• BHP shares tumble as strike threat hits iron ore giant
• BHP shares slump 13% from their peak: Are the ASX mining shares a buy, sell or hold?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU) share price is in focus today after the company raised its full-year FY26 EBIT guidance by around 6.4% to $400–$403 million, with strong Q4 volume gains across key divisions.

What did Fletcher Building report?

• FY26 EBIT guidance increased to $400–$403 million, including ~$52 million from surplus property sales
• FY26 EBIT from continuing operations (excluding property sales) now expected at $348–$351 million, up ~3.6% from mid-June guidance
• Light Building Materials division saw improved volumes, supported by procurement benefits and cost savings
• Iplex businesses in both NZ and Australia reported robust demand as customers accelerated purchases
• Distribution division’s PlaceMakers Frame & Truss volumes rose 5.4% on Q3 and 12.8% year-on-year
• Residential units taken to profit in FY26 fell to 536, down from 666 in FY25

What else do investors need to know?

Fletcher Building’s positive quarterly volumes across core manufacturing and distribution segments were partly driven by customers bringing forward demand, especially ahead of expected price increases. These temporary market dynamics are set to normalise in the first quarter of FY27, which could moderate near-term growth.

The company also finalised more details on the Laminex Cheltenham property sale in Australia, locking in expected EBIT gains and clarifying cost treatment in line with accounting best practices. From FY27, Fletcher Building will adopt an IFRS 18 compliant Income Statement, dropping “Significant Items” as a separate expense category for cleaner financial reporting.

What’s next for Fletcher Building?

While existing construction projects continue to support demand in the near term, Fletcher Building cautions that persistent input cost uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures may mean delays or cancellations of new commercial projects. Management notes this could soften Group performance in the first half of FY27 if trends continue.

The company remains focused on operational improvements, productivity gains, and supply chain efficiencies across its divisions to help offset market challenges. Investors will watch closely to see whether ongoing momentum in civil and infrastructure demand can balance out slower residential and commercial activity.

Fletcher Building share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Fletcher Building shares have risen 1%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Fletcher Building lifts FY26 profit guidance as quarterly volumes rise appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Steadfast Group extends exclusivity on $6.00 per share takeover offer
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why the ASX 200 is sliding towards a 4-week low today
• Qube shares: Scheme now effective and special dividend declared

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

I’m a big believer in the idea that that small Australian shares can deliver better long-term returns than large businesses due to their longer growth runways and being less researched by the market.

The investment team at WAM Microcap Ltd (ASX: WMI) are always looking for opportunities that could allow the listed investment company (LIC) to outperform the ASX share market.

Wilson Asset Management has outlined two Australian businesses that could make excellent returns from here. Let’s dive in.

Stealth Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SGI)

The first Australian share to tell you about is Stealth Group, which WAM described as a business-to-business wholesaler and distributor of hardware, industrial,safety and consumer products.

In mid-June, the company released a strategy and trading update which reaffirmed previous guidance of another record year, with FY26 preliminary unaudited net profit after tax (NPAT) of $5.8 million, exceeding expectations.

WAM also noted that the company reiterated its long-term targets for annual sales of $500 million and an operating profit (EBITDA) margin of between 8% to 12% in FY28. The investment team noted the Stealth Group share price increased significantly after this announcement.

The investment team concluded:

We see scope for further re-rating of the share price over the next 12 months as the market continues to recognise the strength of Stealth’s earnings and growth outlook.

SharonAI Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: SHAZ)

The other Australian share WAM wanted to highlight is SharonAI. It’s not listed on the ASX, though it reportedly plans to list on the ASX boards in the first half of FY27, according to WAM. For now, it’s an Australian business listed on the NASDAQ.

The investment team described SharonAI as an Australian sovereign artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure provider.

WAM noted that during June, the company announced a significant six-year strategic compute collaboration with Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to enable 72MW of new data centre capacity in Australia.

The companies plan to deploy Nvidia’s DSX AI factory design and scale up to 40,000 Grace Blackwell GB300 graphics processing units (GPUs), which are specialised chips used to power AI workloads, to service demand from AI startups, enterprises and university researchers.

After that agreement, SharonAI’s total AI factory capacity increased to 132MW, with 102MW contracted to end customers.

WAM noted that the company expects to have more than 55,000 total Nvidia GPUs deployed by mid-2027.

WAM Microcap said it invested in SharonAI as a pre-initial public offering (IPO) investment in December 2025 at US$1 per convertible note. It listed on the NASDAQ in February 2026 at US$30 per share and the notes were converted into ordinary shares in June 2026.

Since listing, the SharonAI share price has increased by 182.2% as of 30 June 2026.

WAM concluded its thoughts on the Australian share with the following:               

We maintain a positive outlook towards SharonAI and believe news flow is likely to remain positive over the near-term.

The post 2 small Australian shares with big potential appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares with dividend yields above 7.5%
• 3 exciting ASX ETFs for exposure to the future of technology
• Where should I invest inside SMSFs instead of property?
• US chip stocks were smashed overnight. So why are ASX tech shares rising?
• Centuria Capital Group launches $300m equity raising for AI Factory and real estate expansion

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Wam Microcap. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.