BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have hit a rough patch after soaring to fresh record highs just last week.

The BHP share price has fallen around 11% since those highs and is down roughly 7% over the past five trading sessions. Despite the pullback, investors are still sitting on impressive gains. BHP shares remain up about 29% in 2026 and have surged approximately 62% over the past 12 months.

For comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained just 2% over the same 12-month period.

So, after a sharp sell-off, where do brokers see BHP shares heading next?

Why have BHP shares slumped?

The main catalyst behind the recent weakness of BHP shares was an update on the company’s massive Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Following a comprehensive review of costs and timelines for Jansen Stage 2, BHP revealed that the project will be significantly more expensive than previously expected.

The company now estimates Stage 2 will require an additional US$4.9 billion to US$5.4 billion beyond earlier forecasts. That comes on top of the original US$4.9 billion budget approved in October 2023.

The $300 billion ASX mining stock also announced it expects to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion relating to Jansen Stage 2 in its FY26 results.

The timeline has also slipped. First production from Stage 2 is now expected in FY2031, two years later than the previous target of 2029.

Little room for disappointment

Meanwhile, Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production in FY2027, although its cost estimate has also increased since the project was originally sanctioned. BHP has indicated it will provide a further update on Stage 1 costs and timing before 31 December 2026.

Importantly, this is not the first time Jansen’s projected costs have risen. Repeated budget revisions have increasingly tested investor confidence and raised questions about the reliability of management’s long-term project forecasts.

The market’s reaction may also reflect the strong run-up in BHP shares prior to the announcement. After climbing around 30% since the start of the year, expectations were high and there was little room for disappointment.

Some investors may also be locking in profits after the remarkable gains of BHP shares.

What do brokers forecast for BHP shares?

Despite the recent sell-off, analysts remain largely neutral on BHP’s prospects.

According to TradingView data, 13 of the 19 analysts covering BHP currently rate the stock as a hold. Four analysts have buy recommendations, while two rate the mining giant as either a sell or strong sell.

Among the more recent updates, DZ Bank upgraded BHP shares from sell to hold. The broker has an average price target of $65 per share, implying upside of around 11% from current levels.

The spread of analyst forecasts remains unusually wide.

The most optimistic analyst has a price target of $94.51, suggesting potential upside of about 61.5%. At the other end of the spectrum, the most bearish forecast sits at $40.97, suggesting downside of roughly 30%.

Foolish takeaway

That divergence highlights the key debate facing investors. On one hand, BHP continues to benefit from its world-class asset portfolio, substantial iron ore cash flows, and increasing exposure to copper, which could be crucial in the global energy transition. Potash also remains a potentially valuable long-term growth opportunity, even if the development timeline has stretched further into the future.

On the other hand, escalating project costs and execution risks at Jansen have introduced fresh uncertainty. For now, most brokers appear content to sit on the fence.

The post What’s next for BHP shares? Broker forecasts revealed appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Brightstar Resources Ltd (ASX: BTR) is being overlooked by investors at the moment, according to the team at Shaw and Partners, which has tipped the emerging gold producer to more than triple in value as its projects come into production.

Projects already well-progressed

Shaw and Partners analysts said that, between the company’s Goldfields and the Sandstone projects, Brightstar has a “realistic path” to producing 275,000 ounces of gold per year from FY31.

The analysts said in a note to clients this week:

In our view, the market is heavily discounting BTR’s project delivery. However, we find both projects relatively low-risk, standard WA gold operations. Goldfields has already commenced construction with first gold due in JunQ’27. Sandstone may be early-stage but has permitting and technical advantages, plus considerable Resource upside potential. Market confidence could be aided with two Resource updates, a maiden Reserve, and prefeasibility study expected in 2H CY26.

Brightstar made a final investment decision to proceed with the Goldfields project in May, saying at the time it was fully funded through to first gold following the completion of a $193 million equity raising and a US$120 million bond financing.

The project was expected to produce about 75,000 ounces of gold per year over the initial six-year mine life, generating about $1 billion.

Brightstar Managing Director Alex Rovira said regarding the project:

Today’s Final Investment Decision is a landmark moment for Brightstar. With all key approvals now secured, funding in place and the EPC contract executed with GR Engineering, we are immediately moving into full construction of the 1.5Mtpa Laverton processing plant. It marks the first major step in our TARGET200 strategy to build a multi-asset Western Australian gold producer and advance our aspiration of being a Top 10 Australian Gold Producer. We are fully funded, highly motivated and focused on executing with discipline to deliver this transformative project on time and on budget whilst continuing to unlock further value across our Goldfields and Sandstone assets.

The Shaw and Partners team said the Goldfields project posed low technical risk and believed the mine would eventually produce one million ounces of gold.

They said that at an earlier stage of the Sandstone project, they expected production to peak at 200,000 ounces per year and that the gold resource could “materially increase” in the second half of this calendar year.

Shares looking cheap

The analysts added that, looking at peer group companies, a market capitalisation of $2 billion was reasonable.

Brightstar’s current market capitalisation is $323.9 million.

Shaw and Partners has a $1.15 price target on the company’s shares compared to 28 cents currently.

The post Looking for returns of greater than 250%? One broker has tipped this ASX gold stock to fly appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) is one of the most talked-about growth shares on the ASX, and it is easy to see why.

Drones are becoming a bigger issue for defence forces, governments, airports, prisons, and critical infrastructure operators. That is creating more demand for technology that can detect, track, and respond to drone threats.

Despite this, DroneShield shares have been on a poor run and are now down around 60% from their high.

That combination of a serious long-term security problem and a much lower share price is what makes the stock interesting to me.

Why the market is interested

The basic investment case is easy to understand.

Drones are becoming cheaper, smarter, and more widely used. They can be useful for commercial and civilian purposes, but they can also create serious security problems.

Military forces, airports, prisons, major events, government sites, and critical infrastructure owners all have reasons to detect and respond to drones that should not be there.

That gives DroneShield a large problem to address. Its technology is designed to help customers detect, identify, track, and respond to drone threats. I think that full chain is important. It is not enough to know that a drone is nearby. Customers need useful information quickly and response options that fit the situation.

This is where strong products, software, sensors, and integration can become valuable.

The opportunity is bigger than one contract

One mistake investors can make with small defence technology companies is focusing too heavily on the next contract announcement.

Contracts are important, of course. They provide revenue, credibility, and proof that customers are willing to pay.

But I think the bigger question for DroneShield is whether it can build a repeatable sales engine.

That means turning interest in counter-drone technology into ongoing demand across different regions, customers, and use cases. It also means developing software, services, upgrades, warranties, and support that can add more depth to the revenue base.

If DroneShield can become a trusted supplier rather than a one-off equipment provider, the investment case becomes much more interesting.

What needs to go right

DroneShield still has a lot to prove. It needs to keep winning meaningful contracts, deliver products on time, maintain technology leadership, manage production, and support customers properly.

It also needs to show that revenue growth can translate into attractive margins and cash flow generation over time.

That last point is important. A strong theme can lift a share price, but long-term value usually comes from earnings. Investors will eventually want evidence that demand is not only real, but profitable.

Competition is another factor. Defence technology attracts serious players, and government customers can be demanding. DroneShield needs to keep showing that its products are useful, reliable, and worth selecting.

Why I’d buy

I would treat DroneShield as a speculative ASX growth share, so position sizing would be important.

This is not the type of stock I would put in the same basket as a mature blue-chip share. But I think the pullback has made the risk/reward more attractive for investors who can accept volatility.

The company is operating in a market where demand could remain strong for years, especially as drones become more common in conflict zones and around sensitive infrastructure. If counter-drone systems become a standard part of defence and security spending, DroneShield could have a substantial runway.

The upside could be significant if management executes well.

Foolish takeaway

DroneShield is a high-risk ASX growth share, but I think it is also one of the more compelling technology stories on the market.

The company is addressing a problem that governments and security customers cannot ignore. That gives it a strong starting point, while the share price fall of more than 60% from its high has made the valuation more interesting.

I would still want to see continued contract momentum, improving revenue quality, and evidence that scale can lead to stronger earnings. But for investors with a higher risk tolerance, I think DroneShield shares are worth buying as a small, patient position.

The post Is DroneShield the ASX growth share investors should be buying? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.