• A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares?

    Three happy team mates holding the winners trophy.

    Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) shares have seen a lot of volatility since listing in June 2024. Considering the Guzman Y Gomez share price is still down 39% from its December 2024 high, it could be a rare opportunity to invest in one of Australia’s top shares.

    The Mexican restaurant business hit a low earlier this year, but since then it has announced impressive numbers that could help continue the trend of a recovering GYG share price and eventually reach new heights.

    Guzman Y Gomez is currently focused on three markets: Australia, Singapore, and Japan.

    In Australia, the business has a mixture of corporate-owned and franchise restaurants. In Japan and Singapore, it has master franchise agreements.

    GYG sells a variety of food items, including burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (without the tortilla), nachos, nacho fries, quesadillas, enchiladas, churros, and plenty more. Its offering seems to be resonating with Australians, given how much it’s growing each year.

    There are a few factors key to its success, including ‘clean’ healthy food, a drive-through option at many locations, and speed of service. It’s proud to boast that it’s one of the fastest quick-service restaurants (QSRs) to serve customers.

    Ultimately, the company has a goal to be the “best and biggest restaurant company in the world”. Time will tell if it ever reaches that goal, and it doesn’t need to reach that scale to be a very successful investment for Australians, in my view.

    I think there are four excellent factors that make it one of Australia’s top shares to buy today, aside from the food.

    Strong performance by its existing network

    At the end of September 2026, the company said that it had 258 Australian restaurants, 23 Singapore restaurants, and five restaurants in Japan.

    The company regularly reports to investors how its existing stores perform on sales growth, using the ‘comparable sales growth’ metric.

    For the FY27 first quarter, comparable sales growth for Australia, Singapore, and Japan combined was 7.1%. That’s an impressive growth rate considering Guzman Y Gomez is now over 20 years old, and it’s one of the factors that make me call it one of Australia’s top shares.

    The company is driving comparable sales momentum in several ways.

    It has invested in a new order management system (OMS), which is driving operational efficiencies in restaurants.

    GYG is expanding its opening hours, with dozens of locations now operating on a 24/7 basis.

    The company is regularly adding to its range of menu items, including a new Caesar range using mostly existing ingredients, new tacos, and the new meat BBQ beef rib.

    It continues to invest in and expand its delivery and digital offering for customers.

    The final area that’s driving comparable sales is marketing through various forms of media.

    Expanding restaurant network

    The existing restaurants are clearly doing well, and it’s expanding its restaurant network.

    Shareholders learned how much the network had grown with the FY27 first-quarter update.

    It said that its Australian restaurant count had increased to 258. That represented a year-over-year rise of 31 locations, equating to an increase of 13.7%. Within that Australian total, corporate restaurants grew by 10 to 94, and the number of franchise restaurants increased by 21 to 164.

    In Asia, Singapore saw an additional restaurant, taking that national total to 23 (a rise of 4.5%). The Japanese total remained at five.

    Guzman Y Gomez expects both the Singapore and Japan totals to increase during FY27.

    The company expects to open 35 new restaurants in Australia during FY27, with approximately 12 restaurants expected to open in the second quarter.

    The long-term potential growth of the global network is exciting to me, and it’s one of the main reasons why it could be one of Australia’s top shares to buy.

    Eventually, the business would like to reach 1,000 Australian restaurants within the next 20 years, which is an impressive long-term tailwind. I think it’s a very achievable goal, given that some of its major rivals already have that many outlets and Australia is likely to see significant population growth in the next two decades.

    The potential for further international expansion to other countries is also exciting to me.

    Rising profit margins

    In the third quarter of FY27, the company reported network sales growth of 18.8% to $387.5 million, but the rising profit margins are just as exciting to me. I like seeing a company’s margins increase as scale grows because that shows compelling operating leverage.

    Guzman y Gomez is seeing its various profit lines grow faster than revenue.

    From its continuing operations in FY26, network sales rose 17.9%, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) grew 28.7% to $85 million, and underlying NPAT grew 29.7% to $53.4 million.

    Pleasingly, the underlying EBITDA margin as a percentage of network sales improved by 50 basis points from 5.7% to 6.2%. The company expects this margin to rise in the coming years.

    In FY27, the underlying EBITDA margin as a percentage of network sales is expected to rise to between 6.7% and 6.9%.

    The actual economics of the restaurants are also growing. According to GYG, the average drive-through restaurant achieved $6.9 million in sales in FY26 (up from $6.7 million in FY25 and $6.2 million in FY24), while the network restaurant margin improved to 21.6% in FY26 (up from 21.5% in FY25).

    Both Guzman Y Gomez and its Australian franchisees are becoming increasingly profitable, which is a great sign for the long-term health of the company.

    The median franchisee return on investment (ROI) is currently 47%, which is pleasingly high.

    Attractive investor metrics

    As I mentioned at the start of the article, the Guzman Y Gomez share price is down close to 40% from its former all-time high a couple of years ago.

    The valuation looks much more reasonable now that the business is cheaper and is much more profitable on an underlying net profit basis.

    According to the projection on CommSec, the company is forecast to generate earnings per share (EPS) of 51.9 cents in FY27, 65.9 cents in FY28, and 94.5 cents in FY29. In other words, EPS could rise by 82% between FY27 and FY29. With that sort of growth rate, I think it could be one of Australia’s top shares to buy.

    Using that estimate, the Guzman Y Gomez share price is now valued at 28 times FY29’s estimated earnings.

    I also like how the business is willing to enact share buybacks and pay dividends to shareholders, which shows a keen focus on shareholder returns. I think dividends and earnings can climb over the coming years.

    The post A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia's top shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Guzman Y Gomez. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Superannuation funds fell in value in September. See how much they’re down

    Numerous Australian dollar notes laid out.

    Australian superannuation funds fell in value by 0.4% in September on the back of weaker international and local share markets, industry analysts Chant West said.

    The fall brings the return so far this financial year for the median growth fund back to 0.8%, they said.

    Difficult month across the board

    Chant West Head of Superannuation Investment Research Mano Mohankumar said September was a challenging month for investment markets with shares and bonds retreating amid rising bond yields, increasing oil prices and sticky inflation.

    He added:

    Australian shares slipped 2.4% while developed market international shares fell 0.7% in hedged terms. With yields rising, bonds offered little protection, with Australian and international bonds down 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Despite all of that, the loss for the median growth fund in September was limited to 0.4%, with the Australian dollar playing an important diversification role as it depreciated from US$0.72 to US$0.69 over the month. That translated the 0.7% hedged loss on developed international shares into a solid gain of 1.9% in unhedged terms, while emerging markets shares rose 2.4%. On average, super funds hold about 70% of their international shares unhedged. Funds’ unlisted asset exposures also helped cushion the impact.

    In terms of the different risk settings, all growth funds shed 0.6% for the month, while conservative, balanced, growth and high growth all fell 0.4%, Chant West said.

    Mr Mohankumar said it was important to remember that superannuation is a long-term proposition.

    He added:

    Since the introduction of compulsory super in July 1992, the median growth fund has returned 8% p.a. The annual CPI increase over the same period is 2.7%, giving a real return of 5.3% p.a. – well above the typical 3.5% target. Even looking at the past 20 years, which includes three major share market downturns – the GFC in 2007-2009, COVID-19 in 2020, and the high inflation and rising interest rates in 2022 – super funds have returned 6.7% p.a., which is still ahead of the typical objective.

    Longer-term picture is rosy

    Chant West said the median growth fund has, for the past couple of decades, exceeded its return objective over rolling 10-year periods, except for two periods between mid-2008 and late-2017.

    They added:

    This is because of the devastating impact of the 16-month GFC period (end-October 2007 to end-February 2009) during which growth funds lost about 26% on average.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell almost 3.2% in September to end at 8,789.3 points.

    Some of the companies which performed well included Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA), Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA)and Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC).

    The post Superannuation funds fell in value in September. See how much they’re down appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Should I buy Pro Medicus shares after its big news?

    A female scientist in a laboratory setting using a tablet to review data, with a male scientist working in the background.

    Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME) shares are in focus on Monday morning following another positive announcement.

    The medical imaging technology company has been building an impressive presence in the United States, and its latest news adds to that progress.

    But is Pro Medicus a share I would buy for the long term?

    Here’s what I think.

    Another contract win

    Pro Medicus announced this morning that it has secured a new seven-year contract with Billings Clinic in the United States, worth approximately $24 million.

    It is another encouraging addition to the company’s growing portfolio of healthcare customers.

    I like the consistency with which Pro Medicus has been winning these agreements.

    The company secured 10 new contracts worth at least $407 million during FY26, alongside six contract renewals.

    I think that demonstrates how well its Visage imaging platform is being received by major healthcare providers.

    And with these contracts often running for several years, each new agreement provides another source of revenue that can contribute to earnings over time.

    Today’s announcement is another step in that process.

    Why I like the long-term outlook

    One reason I am very positive on Pro Medicus is the growing importance of medical imaging.

    Scan volumes are increasing at a time when many countries are facing shortages of radiologists, putting pressure on hospitals to make better use of their existing specialists.

    Pro Medicus helps address this challenge through software that allows radiologists to access and analyse complex images more efficiently.

    I think that need for greater productivity could become an increasingly important driver of demand for its technology.

    There is also considerable room to expand. Pro Medicus estimates that it has captured around 11% of the US market, leaving the vast majority still available to pursue.

    Of course, winning new customers isn’t straightforward. Hospitals need reliable systems that integrate with their existing operations, and switching providers can be complicated.

    But I think that also works in Pro Medicus’ favour once its technology is installed. The company renewed all six customer contracts that came up for renewal in FY26, with higher transaction fees. For me, that is encouraging evidence of the value customers place on its software.

    More ways to grow

    Another reason I like Pro Medicus is that its opportunity extends beyond traditional radiology.

    The company has been expanding into cardiology, while developing new capabilities in digital pathology and AI-supported reporting.

    I think these developments could allow it to provide more services to existing customers while competing for a wider range of healthcare contracts.

    Foolish takeaway

    I think Pro Medicus remains one of the strongest long-term growth opportunities on the ASX.

    Today’s contract is another positive development, but I am much more interested in how much larger its business could become over the next decade.

    With plenty of room to expand in medical imaging and a growing range of products, I would be happy buying Pro Medicus shares with a long-term view.

    The post Should I buy Pro Medicus shares after its big news? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.