The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has been on a rollercoaster over the past year, trading as high as $221.76 and as low as $90.

The price has recovered well from those lows, and the shares are now changing hands for $193.89.

The question now is, how much are they worth into the future?

Broker says CSL shares are a good buy

Morgan Stanley has made a call on that value, which I’ll reveal shortly.

First let’s have a look at what’s driving their valuation.

The broker has called out two recent developments – agreements struck with Varm-X and Alentis for the development and commercialisation of VMX-C001 and lixudebart.

The most recent agreement, with Alentis, aims to develop lixudebart into a potential first-in-class treatment for people with rare kidney and liver disease.

CSL said in early October that the compound was currently being evaluated in a Phase 2 trial, “in patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis and rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (AAV-RPGN), a rare and potentially life threatening auto-immune disease that can cause irreversible kidney damage and end-stage renal disease”.

CSL Executive Vice President Dr Bill Mezzanotte said the agreement, “reflects CSL’s commitment to building a leading global nephrology franchise, and our strategic intent to create high-value external partnerships”.

Morgan Stanley said it was factoring in an FY32 launch for lixudebart.

The other agreement is focussed on developing a treatment to restore blood coagulation in patients taking a Factor Xa inhibitor.

Morgan Stanley said they had factored both compounds into their financial assumptions going forward.

They said:

For VMX-C001, we include ~US$765mn of revenue by FY36, with a valuation contribution of ~A$8/ share. For lixudebart, we capture ~US$500mn of revenue by FY36, with a valuation contribution of ~A$3/share. Together, this provides EPS upgrades of ~2% in FY32 rising to ~7% in FY36.

CSL back on track

Morgan Stanley said, looking across FY26 and FY27, there had been improvement at the company.

They added:

More generally, we see the FY26 result and FY27 guidance as highlighting incremental improvement within CSL Behring, the key driver of group earnings growth over the medium to longer term (see here). Our forecasts imply solid underlying NPAT growth, supplemented by an ongoing buyback program (EPS growth of ~8% p.a. over FY28-30). CSL trades on 20.6x our 12-month forward underlying EPS forecast, with further multiple expansion contingent on commercial delivery and R&D pipeline expansion.

Morgan Stanley has a price target of $200 on CSL shares, up from $182, compared to $193.89 currently.

The company is currently valued at $92.2 billion.

The post Morgan Stanley just upgraded their CSL share price target appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 utilities and healthcare shares win the week again
• 9 ASX 200 shares experts are backing for growth amid market weakness
• I compared 5 of the ASX’s best shares. Here’s which one I’d buy today
• How much passive income can I earn off a $700,000 superannuation balance?
• CSL, Westpac, BHP shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ansell vs Ampol shares: Which outperforming ASX 200 stock can keep rallying?

When two ASX 200 heavyweights like Ansell Ltd (ASX: ANN) and Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) put in big runs, it’s natural for investors to weigh up which performer could shine brightest from here. Both companies have delivered strong gains in 2026 to date, stand head and shoulders in their respective sectors, and offer solid fundamentals—yet they’re very different beasts. Here’s my take on how these two stocks stack up right now.

The case for Ansell

Ansell is a global provider of protective gloves and bodywear, primarily serving healthcare and industrial sectors. With extensive patents and a broad suite of established brands, it sells products in over 100 countries. Most of Ansell’s revenue, as highlighted in its company profile, comes from its healthcare division, while its industrial segment rounds out the rest. Its footprint is truly international, with a strong focus on North America.

A couple of key fundamentals stand out:

• Market cap: $6.41 billion
• P/E ratio: 21.73
• Year to date return: 31.7% (rounded)
• Ansell pays a dividend, though at 2.12% yield and with no franking, it’s on the modest side by ASX standards. The current dividend per share is $1.16. EPS sits at 1.451.

Interestingly, Ansell’s dividend history shows a long-term commitment to distributions, but none have been franked in recent years. Its share price has enjoyed a robust surge so far this year, reflecting upbeat sentiment.

The case for Ampol

Ampol is Australia’s largest petroleum refiner and distributor, running around 2,000 branded service stations nationwide. Previously known as Caltex, it’s now standalone after Chevron’s exit. Ampol’s business covers the refining, distribution, and retailing of fuel and lubricants. It also operates in New Zealand and owns a stake in a leading Philippines fuel company.

Notable highlights from its latest fundamentals:

• Market cap: $10.37 billion (considerably bigger than Ansell)
• P/E ratio: 7.05
• Year to date return: 43.4% (rounded)
• Ampol pays a substantially higher dividend—with a yield of 5.65% (fully franked, which matters to many local investors). The reported dividend per share is $3.70, while EPS is a solid 6.148.

Ampol’s fully franked dividends and sector-leading yield make it a drawcard for income investors, while its massive YTD return shows it’s not just a yield play—momentum is strong.

Valuation comparison

There are several stark differences to weigh up. Here’s a head-to-head of the main numbers:

Metric	Ansell	Ampol
Market Cap	$6.41 billion	$10.37 billion
P/E Ratio	21.73	7.05
Dividend Yield	2.12% (not franked)	5.65% (100% franked)
Dividend per share	$1.16	$3.70
Earnings per share (EPS)	1.451	6.148

It’s worth noting the sector context here. Ansell, in healthcare/industrial supplies, tends to have higher valuation multiples than the capital-intensive energy sector Ampol occupies. Still, the P/E gap is gaping.

Ampol’s fully franked, high-yield dividends may appeal strongly to investors relying on tax-effective income. In contrast, Ansell’s dividends are not franked, which may be less attractive for some.

Recent share price momentum

Comparing recent share price performance up to 14 October 2026:

• As of 14 Oct 2026, Ansell closed at $45.56. Its share price climbed from $42.16 (17 Sep 2026) to $45.56 (14 Oct 2026) — a gain of roughly 8.1% across this period, contributing to a strong year-to-date return of 31.7%.
• As of 14 Oct 2026, Ampol closed at $43.51. It rose from $43.13 (17 Sep 2026) to $43.51 (14 Oct 2026), a far more modest uptick of around 0.9% over the same stretch, but its year-to-date return is an impressive 43.4% — easily outpacing Ansell for 2026 overall.

Which is the better buy?

If I’m picking which outperforming ASX 200 stock looks set to keep on rallying, I’d lean toward Ampol. The numbers really pop: a P/E far below Ansell’s, robust EPS, and a hefty, fully franked yield of 5.65%. Its share price has already leapt 43.4% this year—and it’s kicking out reliable, tax-effective income at the same time.

Ansell’s strong global business and defensive healthcare exposure are commendable and its shares have performed well, but it trades at a much higher multiple, offers a lower yield, and its dividends aren’t franked. For investors seeking growth plus income, Ampol’s combination of momentum, value, and yield stands out even more.

Of course, sector differences matter—resource-based earnings can be volatile—but right now, based on fundamentals and price action in the data supplied, my pick would be Ampol.

The post Ansell vs Ampol: Which outperforming ASX 200 stock can keep climbing in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Ampol posts 3Q26 EBIT growth and surging refinery margins
• 5 ASX 200 stocks analysts have upgraded this week
• Own ASX mining shares? Official forecasts show commodity prices peaking in FY27
• 2 top ASX blue-chip shares to buy according to experts
• Buy, hold, sell: Xero, Ansell, Wesfarmers shares

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has positions in Ansell. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial draft. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

If you’re among the 33% of Australians with a mortgage, you’re likely to have noticed a dramatic increase in your mortgage repayments this year. 

Since the beginning of 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the cash rate four times, taking it from 3.6% to 4.6%. This represents a 15-year high.

For those with an average $731,000 loan balance, this change is meaningful. For those with an even larger mortgage or insufficient income to cover it, the change is likely to be especially stressful. 

At the same time, a record number of Australians are investing.

According to the 2026 ASX Investor Study, 11.5 million Australians are now investing outside of their superannuation or primary residence in 2026. That’s up by 2.5 million since 2020. 

The largest allocation is to ASX-listed shares, with 58% of investors holding them. 

Approximately 950,000 Australian adults also plan to start investing in the next 12 months.

Interest in Self-Managed Super Funds (SMSF) investing is also rising. Around 20% of non-SMSF investors say they’re considering establishing an SMSF in the next 12 months.

Overall, the data is showing that a growing number of Australians are committed to growing their wealth through investing. However, in the face of mortgage pressures, many of these investors may be reconsidering whether to pay down the mortgage instead. 

While this is a highly personal decision, a simple calculation can help Australian mortgage holders decide which option is more likely to put them ahead.

So let’s run through the numbers.

Calculating your before-tax mortgage rate

According to the RBA, the average variable interest rate on owner-occupied properties stands at 6.2%. 

Unlike investment properties, interest repayments on mortgages for primary residences are not tax deductible. This means that homeowners must make mortgage repayments after paying income tax.

So, it’s the before-tax figure that matters.

In Australia, we have a progressive tax system. This means that higher income earners are taxed at higher rates than lower income earners. As a result, the pre-tax mortgage rate will be greater for higher income earners. 

Here’s how to approximately calculate the after-tax rate (including the 2% medicare levy):

Tax bracket	Marginal Tax rate	After tax	Before tax
$0 – $18,200	0%	6.2%	6.2%
$18,201 – $45,000	17%	6.2%	7.5%
$45,001 – $135,000	32%	6.2%	9.2%
$135,001 – $190,000	39%	6.2%	10.2%
$190,001 and over	47%	6.2%	11.7%

Long-term ASX share market returns

The next step is to estimate the return you’re likely to receive by investing in ASX shares. 

According to the 2026 Vanguard Index Chart, Australian shares have returned 9.0% over the past 30 years. While returns have varied year to year, this is a useful proxy for investing in ASX shares and holding them for at least 5 years.

Compare the pair

Now that we’ve run through the numbers, a comparison can be made to determine whether it’s more advantageous to pay down the mortgage or buy ASX shares. 

Let’s make that comparison for the average Australian. 

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the average Australian annual income in 2026 is $108,352.40. That puts them in the 30% tax bracket (for the upper portion of their income), meaning their pre-tax mortgage rate is 9.2%. 

This is very close to the average return for ASX shares, which comes in at 8.9%. 

So for the average Australian income owner with a mortgage, it’s essentially a draw.

For higher-income earners, paying down the mortgage is slightly more advantageous (11.7% vs 9.0%).

Other considerations

As most mortgage holders would know, there’s more to consider than just the raw figures.

Perhaps most importantly, the emotional burden of being committed to large mortgage repayments can be significant. 

As reported by the Australian Financial Review, the percentage of household income spent on mortgage repayments is near historic peaks, as of mid-2026.

New South Wales, which has the highest average mortgage at around $850,000, has been most affected. The average New South Wales family spent more than 30% of household income on mortgage repayments in June this year. Meanwhile, the average Queensland family allocated 28% towards their mortgage, while South Australia and Western Australia came in at 26%. Victorians paid just 22%.

Another important consideration that would vary the equation is the type of ASX shares that the mortgage holder invests in. While the 30-year average may be a good proxy for investing in index funds such as the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS), returns vary dramatically based on stock selection. 

Mortgage holders with a track record of significantly outperforming the market may prefer continuing to do so instead of paying down their debt.

What if the RBA raises rates again?

Unfortunately for mortgage holders, further rate hikes have not been ruled out. 

The market has priced in a 30% chance of another rate hike in November 2026. Another one is widely expected in May 2027. 

According to Deloitte Access Economics, should the RBA lift the cash rate to 4.85%, a borrower with the average-sized owner-occupier loan would pay around $9,000 more in annual interest than a year ago. 

This would tip the equation in favour of paying down the mortgage for the average Australian income owner and set a higher returns threshold for preferencing ASX shares.

The post Interest rates are going up: Should you pay down your mortgage or buy ASX shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• I think this ASX share is a bargain buy after hitting a 52-week low: Here’s why
• Up 20%: Has the EQT deal saved Cleanaway shares?
• Could $750,000 in ASX ETFs fund a comfortable retirement?
• A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.