I think broker recommendations can be interesting when a share price has fallen but the underlying business is still moving in the right direction.

Morgans currently sees that opportunity in two ASX shares.

Both have been given buy ratings, with the broker arguing that recent weakness has created a better entry point.

Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN)

Jumbo Interactive shares are trading around $6.69 on Tuesday.

The lottery technology company recently reported underlying EBITDA of $85.2 million, up 25%, while underlying NPATA increased 20% to $50.6 million. That came despite another unusually weak year for large Australian lottery jackpots.

Morgans believes the result was stronger than the share price reaction suggested.

The broker noted that Jumbo’s international operations are becoming much more meaningful, with Managed Services and Prize Draws contributing $30.3 million compared with just $7 million a year earlier.

That growth helped offset a 10% decline in Australia as large jackpot activity remained soft.

There are still some uncertainties. Morgans pointed to questions around Brightstar and FY27 guidance that came in below parts of the market’s expectations.

Even so, the broker described that guidance as conservative and continues to expect Jumbo’s financial position to strengthen, forecasting a return to net cash by FY29.

Morgans has retained its buy recommendation and reduced its price target slightly from $10.25 to $9.81.

From the current share price, that implies potential upside of roughly 47%.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Sigma Healthcare is another ASX share Morgans thinks has been treated too harshly by investors.

The shares are currently trading around $2.69 after falling following the company’s FY26 result.

Sigma delivered EBIT growth of more than 20%, while like-for-like Chemist Warehouse sales increased 13.4% in Australia and 12.2% internationally.

Australian growth slowed somewhat during the second half, but Morgans attributed this partly to a later start to the cold and flu season and a particularly strong comparison period.

Importantly, Sigma is targeting double-digit revenue and earnings growth in FY27.

The broker did trim its forecasts by around 3.5%, but it still believes the market reaction has gone too far.

Morgans said the post-result decline, which was also influenced by the possibility of some founders selling shares, had created an opportunity. As a result, the broker upgraded Sigma from accumulate to buy.

Its price target now sits at $3.19, down slightly from $3.30 previously.

That represents potential upside of around 19% from the current share price.

Foolish takeaway

Morgans sees upside in both ASX shares, although the investment cases are quite different.

Jumbo’s opportunity rests on international growth becoming a larger part of the business while Australian jackpot conditions eventually normalise.

Sigma, meanwhile, is still delivering strong growth following the Chemist Warehouse combination, and Morgans believes the recent sell-off has been overdone.

Based on the broker’s latest price targets, both ASX shares could have meaningful upside from here.

The post 2 ASX shares tipped to return 19% to 47% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 4 ASX shares scoring upgrades in the final week of earnings season

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX tech shares have been through a brutal repricing, and there is strong disagreement about what comes next.

The S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) is down more than 27% over twelve months.

Two names capture the argument better than the index does.

One has halved while brokers argue over what it is worth.

The other has risen while brokers and the market draw opposite conclusions from the same result.

Why ASX tech shares have been repriced

Three things happened at roughly the same time.

The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate three times this year to 4.35%, which is hard on companies valued on distant earnings.

Several high-multiple names missed expectations during reporting season.

Investors also began seriously debating whether artificial intelligence erodes software business models rather than enhancing them, a fear now nicknamed the “SaaSpocalypse”.

To illustrate the complex nature of the ASX tech market, WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) grew FY26 revenue by 79% and underlying profit by 29%, and the shares still fell 10% on the day.

Good numbers are not being rewarded at the moment.

Xero: where the brokers disagree with each other

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) is down about 52% over twelve months and a long way below its $166.00 high.

The FY26 result was not the problem.

Operating revenue rose 31% to NZ$2.75 billion and annualised monthly recurring revenue climbed 37% to NZ$3.27 billion.

Free cash flow reached NZ$554 million at a 20.1% margin, and subscribers grew 11% to 4.92 million.

The complications sit underneath the headline.

Net profit fell 27% to NZ$167.4 million on Melio integration costs, and gross margin slipped from 89% to 83.9% as payments changed the revenue mix.

Roughly 5% of the register is now sold short, a record for the company.

Chief executive Sukhinder Singh Cassidy pointed to the United States as a catalyst for future growth:

Our strong full year results demonstrate Xero’s disciplined execution and macro-resilience. Our 3×3 strategy is hitting its stride, demonstrated by accelerating US growth with 110,000 new customers, including new Melio direct payments customers.

Megaport: where the brokers disagree with the market

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) is a mirror image of the previous two companies.

The company’s shares sit near $16.73 and are up about 23% over twelve months.

FY26 revenue rose 37% to $312.2 million, while group annual recurring revenue jumped 62% to $395.2 million.

EBITDA reached $77.1 million on a 25% margin.

Then the market read the rest of it.

The company swung to a $39.0 million net loss, and FY27 guidance calls for capital expenditure of $1.28 billion to $1.38 billion after raising close to $1 billion.

As a result, shares fell about 20% across five sessions.

Chief executive Michael Reid saw things differently:

FY26 produced an exceptional result. Group Annual Recurring Revenue increased by 62% to $395.2 million, revenue grew by 37% to $312.2 million, and EBITDA reached $77.1 million. These are incredible results and we’re only just getting started.

Analysts have sided with him.

Megaport carries nine buy ratings with no holds or sells and an average target near $24.99.

FY27 revenue guidance of $620 million to $730 million implies growth of at least 100%.

Foolish takeaway for these ASX tech shares

All of these ASX tech shares ask you to look deep into the future to understand why these companies may be attractive investments.

Xero asks whether a business growing revenue at 31% deserves a price-to-earnings ratio near 99 while its margins compress.

For its part, investors in Megaport will be asking whether $1.3 billion of capital expenditure produces the returns management expects.

The post Xero and Megaport: 2 ASX tech shares the market can’t agree on appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• UBS names its 10 top ASX picks for the next 3-6 months
• WiseTech shares are down 62%. Why are brokers still bullish?
• Down 62%, are WiseTech shares now a buy, hold or sell?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• Buy, hold, sell: Megaport, Xero, AMP shares

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Megaport, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price has tumbled further into the red on Tuesday.

At the time of writing, the insurance company’s shares are down around another 2% and are trading at $7.88 each.

Today’s decline means the shares have now fallen around 6% since Wednesday last week, down around 10% since hitting an annual high in late July, and they’re 1.5% lower for the year to date.

What is happening to the IAG share price?

There hasn’t been any price-sensitive news out of IAG recently to explain the latest sell-off. Instead, the share price decline looks like a combination of factors.

It’s most likely the result of overall ASX financial sector weakness. 

Investor sentiment has turned negative amid concerns about falling mortgage demand, a weakening housing market, and tight competition squeezing margins.

In late August, inflation data also came in much higher than expected, prompting several major banks to revise their interest rate forecasts to include another hike as early as September.

At the same time, crude oil prices increase overnight, driven by yet another escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran. Higher oil prices generally lead to higher inflation and share market volatility.

And all this has happened against the backdrop of investors continuing to digest IAG FY26 results. 

In mid-August, the company posted a 24.8% decline in its NPAT compared to FY25, and an underlying insurance profit of $1.578 billion, up from $1.542 billion in FY25. 

Investors weren’t impressed, and some analysts revised their outlooks on the stock shortly afterwards.

What do brokers tip next for the ASX insurance shares?

Market data suggests that the experts are divided about the outlook for IAG shares going forward.

Market Index data show that brokers are split between buy and hold ratings. The $8.28 average target price implies an upside of around 5% at the time of writing.

But sentiment is more mixed on TradingView. Out of 9 analysts, four have a strong buy rating, three have a hold rating, and two rate IAG shares as a sell/strong sell.

The average $8.32 target price implies an upside of around 6% at the time of writing. But the difference between the maximum and minimum target prices is wide. Some tip the shares to fall another 10% to $7.10, and some expect the shares to climb 17% higher to $9.25 over the next 12 months.

Citi recently upgraded its outlook on IAG shares to a buy following the insurer’s FY26 results. But the broker reduced its 12-month price target to $8.80, from $9.

Jefferies also renewed its buy rating on IAG shares but shaved its 12-month price target to $9.25, from $9.45.

UBS maintained its buy rating on IAG shares following the insurer’s FY26 results. The broker also reduced its 12-month price target to $9.25, from $9.45.

Jarden is more bearish. The broker downgraded IAG shares to a hold rating following IAG’s announcement, with an $8 target price.

The post Down 6%: What is going on with the IAG share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 bank shares led a financial sector rebound last week
• 16 ASX 200 shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• 8 ASX shares just upgraded by the experts
• 7 ASX 200 shares with reaffirmed buy ratings this week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.