Author: therawinformant

If you’re a growth investor, then you’re in luck. Right now, there are a good number of companies on the Australian share market that look well-placed to grow their earnings at a very strong rate over the next five years.

Three of the best growth shares that I think you can buy at the moment are listed below. Here’s why I think they are must-buys:

Altium Limited (ASX: ALU)

One of my favourite growth shares on the ASX is Altium. It is an electronic design software company best known for its Altium Designer product. This product is regarded as the best in its class and currently has over 50,000 subscribers. The good news is that demand for Altium Designer (and its newly launched Altium 365 cloud-based product) looks set to increase strongly over the coming years thanks to rapidly growing Internet of Things market. So much so, management is aiming to grow its revenue to US$500 million by FY 2025. This compares to US$189 million in FY 2020.

Appen Ltd (ASX: APX)

Another growth share which I think is a must-buy is Appen. It is a leading developer of high-quality, human-annotated training data for machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). Given the importance of high quality data for these activities, Appen looks set to benefit greatly from these rapidly growing markets. For example, management estimates that the AI market will be worth between US$169 billion and US$191 billion per annum by 2025. Importantly, 10% of this spending is expected to be on the data labelling that Appen is a leader in.

Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

Finally, this cloud-based business and accounting software provider could be another must-buy growth share. Xero has been growing at a very strong rate over the last few years and looks well-positioned to continue this strong form for some time to come. This is thanks to its massive global opportunity, strong pricing power, sticky product, and high quality platform. Combined, I expect them to result in strong earnings growth in the coming years.

More reading

• 5 ASX shares with huge moats to own today
• 2 ASX tech shares to buy and hold beyond 2025
• Is the Xero share price heading to $100?
• 3 top ASX growth shares I’ll buy if the ASX crashes again
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy today

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Altium and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Appen Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re searching for a source of income but aren’t sure which shares to buy or don’t have sufficient funds to invest in a truly diverse manner, then ETFs could be a good option for you.

There are a number of ETFs that have been set up to give investors exposure to a collection of dividend shares.

Three that I think are worth considering are listed below:

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY)

The first option for income investors to consider buying is the Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. I think this exchange traded fund is a quality option for income investors due to the diversity of its holdings. It provides investors with exposure to many of the highest yielding shares on the ASX through a single investment. This includes the banks, telcos, and miners such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). At present I estimate that its units offer a FY 2021 dividend yield of at least 5%.

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS)

Another ETF for income investors to consider buying is the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. It has been designed to mirror the lesser followed S&P/ASX 300 index. This means it gives investors exposure to blue chips such as Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS), and also smaller companies like Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1) and Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN). I like the diversity this gives investors. At present, I estimate that its units offer a FY 2021 dividend yield of at least 3%.

VanEck Vectors Australian Banks ETF (ASX: MVB)

Finally, if you’re looking at bank shares but can’t decide which ones to buy, the VanEck Vectors Australian Banks ETF could be the answer. This is because this ETF gives investors the opportunity to get a piece of them all through a single investment. The VanEck Vectors Australian Banks ETF is invested in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and the rest of the big four banks, the regional banks, and also Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG). I estimate that its units currently provide a ~4.5% partially franked FY 2021 dividend yield.

More reading

• The dangers of investing in managed funds
• Why I would buy Telstra and these ASX dividend shares
• 2 ASX shares I would buy for growth and income
• Why I would buy ANZ and this ASX dividend share right now
• These are the 4 cheapest ETFs on the ASX

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited and Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Retail investors – ordinary investors like you and I – don’t exactly have the best reputation for good investing habits (or returns for that matter).

An article from Forbes reckons the average return for the average retail investor over the 30 years to 2014 was just 1.9% per annum (ouch!). Whilst this statistic is a little dated now, I doubt this metric would have substantially improved by 2020.

So why can’t normal, everyday retail investors get a long-term rate of return that’s barely above what a bank account pays each year? If those same investors invested in a simple index fund like the SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund (ASX: STW), they instead would have enjoyed an average annual return of 7.25% that the fund has provided since its inception in 2001.

Why are retail investors so bad at investing?

Well, in my view it’s because retail investors aren’t too good at that paramount principle of good investing: ‘buy low, sell high’. Inexperienced investors tend to let their emotions get the better of them when it comes to the markets. They might panic and sell out of their shares at or near the bottom of a market crash. They then might only feel brave enough to reenter the market once the ‘bottom’ has well and truly passed – missing out on the gains in the meantime.

Following this kind of path is a great way to get an average return of 1.9% per annum.

A changing paradigm?

According to reporting in Monday’s Australian Financial Review (AFR), the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) market crash we saw back in March has turned this paradigm on its head. The AFR reports that retail investors were, in fact, net buyers of Australian shares (meaning they bought more shares than they sold) between mid-February and May, to the tune of around $9 billion in total.

In contrast, it was institutional investors (fund managers and the like) who were hitting the sell buttons over the crash, with net sales of approximately $11 billion.

The AFR quotes corporate advisory firm Vesparum Capital’s founder, Timothy Toner, as stating: “This is very abnormal… During the GFC there were some similarities but nothing like what we’ve seen during COVID-19 in terms of the striking differences between the two classes of investor [retail and institutional].”

So retail investors seem to have smartened up since the carnage that the global financial crisis brought back in 2008 and 2009. Why? It’s possible that the bull run in global share markets over the past decade or so has trained investors to ‘buy the dips’, safe in the knowledge that the markets will soon recover.

Foolish takeaway

Remember, the crash and bear market we saw in February, March and April was one of the steepest and most rapid in history. It’s only been around 5 months since the last peak, in mid-February, and yet the ASX 200 is around 32% above its March lows. In contrast, the bear market that the GFC brought us lasted almost 2 years. If retail investors’ patience was tested to that extent, rather than a ‘flash crash’, we might have seen a different story. Food for thought!

More reading

• Why outperforming ASX retail stocks could be running out of puff
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to sell right now
• Nearly 1 million Australians unemployed, market unphased
• Why the Pointsbet share price is outperforming today
• ASX 200 flat: Big four banks and travel shares push higher, Breville tumbles lower

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Retail investors behaved differently in the March ASX 200 market crash than the GFC. Here’s how appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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It has been a very disappointing day of trade for the Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) share price.

In afternoon trade the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) rival’s shares are down 8% to $6.04.

At one stage the Zip share price was down as much as 11% to $5.86.

Why is the Zip share price tumbling lower today?

Investors have been selling the company’s shares on Thursday after they were the subject of a broker note out of UBS.

According to the note, following the release of its fourth quarter update, the investment bank has downgraded Zip’s shares to a sell rating with an improved price target of $5.70.

Although UBS was impressed with its sales growth during the fourth quarter and FY 2020, it appears a touch concerned by a rise in its net bad debts.

During the quarter, Zip’s net bad debts lifted to 2.24% from 1.84% in the third quarter and 1.63% from the same period last year.

Though, it is worth noting that management highlighted that its arrears metric is declining. As this is a leading indicator for future bad debts, it could be a sign that its net bad debts have now peaked.

Nevertheless, in light of this and its strong share price gain over the last few months, UBS doesn’t see enough value in its shares to offer a sufficient risk/reward for investors.

Morgans remains bullish.

One broker that remains bullish and sees the Zip share price weakness as a buying opportunity is Morgans.

According to a note out of the broker this morning, it has retained its add rating and lifted the price target on its shares to $7.20.

This price target implies potential upside of approximately 19% over the next 12 months from the current level.

Should you invest?

It’s impossible to say where the Zip share price will go over the next few months, but I’m confident that over the long term it will go notably higher from here.

As a result, if you’re prepared to make a long term investment, then this share price weakness could prove to be an excellent buying opportunity.

More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to sell right now
• Why Audinate, Breville, Zip Co, & Zoono shares are sinking lower today
• ASX BNPL shares: should you invest in the fastest growing industry of 2020?
• 2 ASX shares I’d buy if the market crashes again
• 3 reasons the Openpay share price is better than Afterpay

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Several S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) retail stocks have been the surprising outperformers during the COVID-19 pandemic. But Citigroup warns they could be about to lose their mojo.

There are a few reasons why these retailers have outperformed even as the coronavirus outbreak forced a shutdown of the economy in March.

Retail winners from COVID-19

Some like the Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price benefitted from increased demand for home improvement projects. Others like the JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) benefitted from strong demand for IT equipment.

The big shift to online shopping also meant that web-based retailers, such as the Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price, are booming.

Those that sell exercise wear have also seen a quick rebound with consumers locked out of gyms and having to work out on their own. These stocks include the Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1) share price and Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL).

Losing momentum

However, Citigroup is splashing cold water on this parade and warned that the momentum could fade.

“Retail sales conditions have been strong, but are likely to slow from here, which makes retail share prices susceptible,” said the broker.

“The fade in sales growth may be quicker if government stimulus is wound back and the super withdrawal declines more rapidly.

“The economic update provided by the Federal Government on 23 July 2020 will be important and we see downside risk to consensus earnings if total stimulus is less than $50 billion for the December quarter.”

Consumer cashflow about to be hit

But it isn’t only government stimulus that has helped sustain consumer spending. The early superannuation withdrawal scheme also fuelled spending, and this program isn’t likely to be extended.

The scheme allows consumers to make tax-free withdrawals of $10,000 in FY20 and another $10,000 this financial year. Applications for early withdrawal spiked this month as Melbourne went into a second lockdown.

While the program is meant to help applicants in hardship pay for the basic necessities, there’s evidence that many have been using the cash on discretionary items. Many of these applicants also probably do not know about the hidden danger of accessing the program.

But rightly or wrongly, Citi estimated that the end of this withdrawal program will cut household cash flow by between 3% and 6%.

Risk of consensus downgrades

“Retail spending has also done well because money was freed up by an almost halving in non-retail discretionary spend (the fall in tourism, auto and entertainment are key factors),” said the broker.

“We expect these areas of spend to gradually recover, impacting retail sales growth over the next year.”

For these reasons, Citi thinks the sector could be on the cusp of a consensus downgrade cycle with earnings per share forecasts set to fall by up to 6% for discretionary retailers.

Those that are more susceptible to slowing sales are department stores Target (owned by Wesfarmers) and Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR).

More reading

• Retail investors behaved differently in the March ASX 200 market crash than the GFC. Here’s how
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to sell right now
• Nearly 1 million Australians unemployed, market unphased
• Why the Pointsbet share price is outperforming today
• ASX 200 flat: Big four banks and travel shares push higher, Breville tumbles lower

Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Super Retail Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Kogan.com ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Shares in ASX travel agent Helloworld Travel ltd (ASX: HLO) are in a trading halt after the company unveiled a $50 million capital raising.

Why is Helloworld raising capital?

Earlier today, Helloworld announced that the company will join other embattled companies in the travel sector and launch a capital raise. The news was initially speculated on the Australian Financial Review’s ‘Street Talk’, before Helloworld released the official announcement to the market.  

The listed travel agent will be looking to raise $50 million in capital, comprised of an institutional placement and entitlement offer. The new shares will be issued at $1.65, a 16% discount from the last closing price. The capital raising will be aimed at helping Helloworld strengthen its balance sheet and provide the company with liquidity during the prolonged disruption of global travel.

The outlook for Helloworld in 2020 and beyond

Helloworld is a listed travel agent that specialises in retail and corporate travel management. In its investor presentation, the company highlighted the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on the travel industry, with restrictions expected to be in place through the remainder of 2020 and into 2021.

As a result, the company has cautioned investors that sales will remain between 10–12% below previous levels until September, when domestic border restrictions are expected to be lifted in addition to a potential trans-Tasman travel bubble.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Helloworld was forced to initiate a range of cost saving initiatives. Net cash operating costs were progressively reduced to around $2 million per month since late March, with the company also closing its offshore centres in Manila and Mumbai.

Helloworld has also provided assistance by suspending all franchise and marketing fees for its retail travel agents and brokers, with the company noting that only 5% of its franchisees have elected to close. Post-COVID-19, Helloworld hopes to capitalise on the disruption of the global travel industry increasing its market share and focusing on domestic tourism until international travel returns.

Foolish takeaway

Helloworld shares last closed at $1.96 and will remain in a trading halt until the commencement of trading on Monday 20 July.

More reading

• 3 must-buy ASX growth shares for July
• 3 excellent ASX ETFs to buy for dividends
• Retail investors behaved differently in the March ASX 200 market crash than the GFC. Here’s how
• Why the Zip Co share price sank 11% lower today
• Why outperforming ASX retail stocks could be running out of puff

Motley Fool contributor Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Helloworld Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On Wednesday I looked at three ASX shares that brokers have given buy ratings to this week.

Unfortunately, not all shares are in favour with them right now. Three ASX 200 shares that have just been given sell ratings by brokers are listed below.

Here’s why these brokers are bearish on them:

Platinum Asset Management Ltd (ASX: PTM)

According to a note out of Credit Suisse, its analysts have retained their underperform rating but lifted the price target on this fund manager’s shares to $3.15. This follows the release of its funds under management update for June, which came in a little ahead of the broker’s expectations. Nevertheless, with its overall performance largely underwhelming, it believes there are risks of further fund outflows in the future. The Platinum share price is changing hands at $3.94 this afternoon.

Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX)

A note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have retained their underweight rating and reduced the price target on this shopping centre operator’s shares to $1.28. The broker appears to believe that Vicinity’s earnings have peaked and rental income will fall heavily because of lower occupancy rates. In addition to this, given how its shopping centres are not as dominant as others, it feels it is more exposed to the tough trading conditions. The Vicinity share price is trading at $1.36 today.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P)

Analysts at UBS have downgraded this payments company’s shares to a sell rating with an improved price target of $5.70. This follows the release of Zip’s full year update earlier this week. According to the note, the broker was pleased with the company’s sales growth during FY 2020. Though, it notes that its bad debts have started to rise. In light of this and its strong share price rally over the last few weeks, the broker doesn’t see a sufficient risk/reward on offer with its shares and has downgraded them. The Zip share price has fallen 9.5% lower to $5.94 this afternoon.

More reading

• Nearly 1 million Australians unemployed, market unphased
• Why Audinate, Breville, Zip Co, & Zoono shares are sinking lower today
• Why the Pointsbet share price is outperforming today
• ASX 200 flat: Big four banks and travel shares push higher, Breville tumbles lower
• ASX BNPL shares: should you invest in the fastest growing industry of 2020?

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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According to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia’s unemployment rate increased 0.4% in June to reach 7.4%, with an additional 69,300 unemployed people. This is the highest rate of unemployment since November 1998, with a total of just under 1 million unemployed people.

The market reaction to the latest unemployment data was relatively muted, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) trading flat most of the morning before dipping 0.93% at the time of writing. 

Unemployment rate increases as more people seek work 

The increase in the unemployment rate was partially due to an increase in the number of people looking for work. According to the ABS numbers, between May and June the labour force increased by 280,100 people to 13,320,800, with the participation rate rising 1.3 points to 64%. Treasurer Josh Frydenburg said earlier this week that the real unemployment rate is 13.3%, as the official rate does not include those who have stopped looking for work. 

Full time employment down, part time employment up 

Between May and June, full time employment decreased by 38,100 people while part time employment increased by 249,000 people. Positively, the underemployment rate decreased by 1.4 points to 11.7%.

All states and the ACT recorded increases in employment in June, however most states and territories (except for Queensland and the Northern Territory) saw unemployment rates increase as a result of increased numbers of people in the labour force. In Victoria, unemployment increased from 6.9% in May to 7.5% in June, while New South Wales saw unemployment increase from 6.4% to 6.9%. 

Lockdowns see unemployment rise 

Large numbers of Australians were stood down or had hours reduced in April as lockdowns came into effect. These conditions continued in May, impacting work and job search activities. By June, as social distancing restrictions started to lift, there was a corresponding rise in the employment-to-population ratio which increased 1 point to 59.2%, and a 4% increase in hours worked. 

Around 900,000 people left employment between March and April and over 700,000 between April and May. This number reduced between May and June, however, to around 400,000. Almost 600,000 people moved into employment in June, leading to a net increase in the number of employed people by over 200,000. While there was a similar flow into employment in May, there was an even larger outflow, resulting in a net drop in employment in May. 

What is the outlook for employment? 

The outlook for employment in Australia largely depends on how the economy recovers from coronavirus. With lockdowns back in effect in Victoria, those in impacted industries are again seeing employment under threat. This could be bad news for July employment figures. Jobkeeper, which is due to expire in September, may also be helping to mask the true (higher) unemployment rate. 

More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to sell right now
• Why the Pointsbet share price is outperforming today
• ASX 200 flat: Big four banks and travel shares push higher, Breville tumbles lower
• Should you buy Fortescue shares at an all-time high?
• Up 31% in 1 month: is the Saracen share price a buy?

Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) share price has come under pressure and is dropping lower on Thursday.

In afternoon trade the private health insurer’s shares are down 1.5% to $2.93 after announcing a settlement with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

What did Medibank announce?

This afternoon Medibank announced that it has resolved the ACCC’s proceedings in relation to the Boost and Lite products of its subsidiary ahm.

According to the release, the Federal Court has approved the agreed settlement and the ACCC has accepted an Enforceable Undertaking (EU) offered by Medibank.

Medibank has agreed to a $5 million penalty to resolve the proceedings.

What was the issue?

The proceedings were in relation to representations made by ahm when responding to claims and eligibility enquiries by customers for joint investigations and reconstruction procedures under its Boost and Lite products.

Medibank voluntarily notified the ACCC of the issue in 2018 and briefed the regulator on ahm’s approach to customer communication and the remediation program.

The ACCC acknowledged this and also that the error was inadvertent and ahm didn’t intend to make false or misleading representations. The competition watchdog also advised that it considers the company’s remediation program to be appropriate and generous in its design and scope.

Senior Executive Kate Williams commented: “We have agreed to resolve this matter and offer this EU as a demonstration of how seriously we take our obligations under the Australian Consumer Law. We believe the approach we have taken to be transparent with all past and current ahm Lite and Boost customers about the issue, the way we have implemented a remediation program and how we have engaged proactively with the ACCC, reflects our commitment to do the right thing.”

Should you buy the dip?

While I think Medibank is a quality company, I’m not in a rush to invest just yet.

At present I feel there is too much uncertainty in the industry due to the pandemic, affordability issues, and reform risks.

In light of this, I would sooner buy the shares of private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC) than a private health insurer.

More reading

• The better ASX buy: NIB vs Medibank shares
• What are the best ASX shares for dividends?
• Fund managers have been buying these ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ramsay Health Care Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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