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Bernie Sanders, Ilhan Omar Lead Call for World Bank, IMF Debt Cancellation
(Bloomberg) — Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ilhan Omar led a group of lawmakers from two dozen countries calling for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to forgive the debt of the world’s poorest countries and step up their support.The debt payment standstill announced last month by the Group of 20 won’t be enough to allow the countries to deal with the crisis, the lawmakers, including the U.K.’s Jeremy Corbyn, said in a letter Wednesday. Fitch Ratings last month warned that multilateral development banks could see their credit ratings suffer if they let the poorest nations suspend sovereign debt payments.The lawmakers also urged the IMF to create trillions of dollars in reserve assets, called special drawing rights, a move opposed by the Trump administration. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last month that the fund is well capitalized for the next months but won’t discard the possibility of creating more reserve assets if it needs more resources in the future.The steps are “the very least that these financial institutions should do to prevent an unimaginable increase in poverty, hunger, and disease that threatens hundreds of millions of people,” Sanders said in a statement.The lawmakers called on the IMF and World Bank to respond in 15 days.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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3 Stocks Millennials Are Betting Big on Right Now
As the COVID-19 epidemic drags on, and unemployment rises, online equity trading platforms are seeing a surge in use and new sign-ups. The Robinhood app saw Q1 deposits increase by 300% year-over-year, while the popular social trading app eToro saw a 220% growth in trading use. The demographic breakdown of the new online traders makes a more interesting story, however. Data from the Wealthsimple Trade platform shows that 55% of new users are under age 35.The migration of Millennials to online trading should not come as a surprise. Jeff Bishop, founder of Raging Bull Trading, notes, “A lot of people are at home and have got more time on their hands. And many, unfortunately, have lost their jobs and are looking for new opportunities.” Bishop goes on to add that, “Younger investors are looking for ways to recoup their money. They’re really interested in low, beat-up stocks.”With this in mind, we’ve delved into three top choices of Millennial traders, according to Robinhood, and found a profile that makes sense young investors seeking to build a lifetime portfolio: blue chip stalwarts, facing tough times now, but holding strong niches. Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison tool, we lined up the three alongside each other to get the lowdown on what the near-term holds for these beat-up stocks.Boeing Company (BA)The coronavirus epidemic, with the lockdowns, shutdowns, and travel restrictions governments have put in place to combat the spread, could not have come at a worse time for Boeing. The aircraft manufacturer was already facing serious difficulty, due to the 13-month long grounding of the 737-MAX 8, the most popular model of its most popular commercial airliner. Continuing production lines on other commercial jets and strong sales of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter were only partially compensating for the losses in the MAX 8 program.The travel restriction put in place against COVID-19 pandemic are a bigger blow. Air travel is deeply depressed, and airlines are cutting routes, mothballing aircraft, and furloughing workers – and that has now trickled back to Boeing. The company saw Q4 losses of $2.33 per share when the MAX 8 did not reenter production, and in Q1, with coronavirus in full swing, saw additional losses of $1.70 per share. Despite recording $16.9 billion in Q1 revenue, Boeing was in the red by $641 million. The company is now considering cutting the work rolls by 10%.But Millennial investors are moving into BA shares. At first glance, it is hard to see why. While the overall markets have rallied since hitting the March 23 low point, BA shares have failed to gain traction. The stock is down 60% year-to-date, and has been trending downwards since early April.This, however, also shows why Millennials are buying in. Boeing is at a 3.5-year low price, and the company remains fundamentally sound. While the MAX 8 lines are shut down, Boeing still produces the 777 and 787 airliner families, along with a variety of military and aerospace airframes. With almost half of all the world’s operational airlines being Boeing products, commercial maintenance work alone will keep the company viable long term.5-star analyst Josh Sullivan, of Benchmark, sees a strong case to buy into Boeing, and gives the stock a Buy rating. His $180 price target suggests an upside of 48% over the next 12 months. (To watch Sullivan’s track record, click here)Defending his bullish stance, Sullivan also explains why Millennials – or anyone seeking a long-term holding – should look at Boeing. In particular, he points out that the company’s airliners will remain in demand, as they are essential to air travel networks: “The 737-MAX program is anticipated to begin production at low rates this year and climb to 31/month next … Overall, the 737-MAX program carries the most weight and the adjustments in wide-body production provide a base-line.”All in all, Wall Street is cautious on BA. The stock has received 18 analyst reviews recently, with a breakdown of 6 Buy, 11 Hold, and 1 Sell, making the consensus rating a Moderate Buy. The 12-month average price target of $163.18, indicates confidence in a healthy 34% upside potential. (See Boeing stock analysis on TipRanks)American Airlines (AAL)Measured by fleet size, scheduled passengers carried, and revenue per passenger mile, American Airlines is the world’s largest. Before the coronavirus grounded most air traffic, American was operating 6,800 daily flights to 350 destinations in 50 countries around the world.American was showing quarterly profits up until the coronavirus struck. In Q4, the company reported earnings of $1.15 per share – but that has turned sharply negative in Q1. AAL showed a net loss of $2.65 in the first quarter, 22% worse than expected, and the losses are expected to worsen in Q2, to as much as $7.35. American had not posted a quarterly loss since 2013. The company is also burning $70 million in cash per day in the current quarter, but expects that figure to fall by nearly 30% by the end of June.After absorbing the $2.24 billion net loss in Q1, AAL, like Boeing, suspended its dividend and buyback plans. Prior to this, the company has paid out 10 cents per share quarterly, reliably, for 6 years. Company management has put a priority on maintaining the balance sheet, with renewal of the dividend to come after air travel returns to more normal patterns.Cowen's 5-star analyst Helane Becker is sanguine that American can weather the current storm. She writes of the company, “[AAL] is receiving a total of $10.6 Bn in aid through the CARES Act. We expect another capital raise in 3Q20, likely against their unencumbered asset base. In the near-term the company is taking action on the fleet by removing 100 aircraft to eliminate fleet complexity. American needs to continue to aggressively manage costs until revenues show signs of improving.”Her cautiously optimistic line on the stock supports a Buy rating and a $15 price target. Becker’s target implies a robust upside potential of 48% in the coming year, reflecting the necessity of air travel in the modern world. (To watch Becker’s track record, click here)Overall, Wall Street isn’t quite ready to go all in on AAL. The stock has 17 reviews, including 4 Buys, 5 Holds, and 8 Sells. The share price, however, is an affordable $9.09, and the lost cost of entry does help mitigate risk. The average price target of $13.92 suggests an upside potential of 53%. (See American Airlines stock analysis on TipRanks)Walt Disney (DIS)Of the three stocks in this list, only Walt Disney turned a profit in Q1. Even so, the 60 cents per share recorded for the first quarter missed the forecast by 27%. Quarterly earnings were also down 60% sequentially and 62% year-over-year. As a cost-saving move, Disney, like the companies above, has suspended its dividend. The next semi-annual payment was due to go out in July; by cutting it, Disney haves $1.6 billion.There were some positive notes, and they show why Disney remains a solid long-term stock play. Quarterly revenues were up some 20%, to $18 billion. Theme park attendance was shut down during the lockdowns, but media network sales were up. Disney+, the company’s new streaming service, reached 54 million subscribers in the quarter. It was an impressive gain – more than 4.5 million in less than one month – that beat company forecasts and also bodes well for future media profits.Looking further forward, Disney management has announced that it is starting to phase open the theme parks, starting with Disney Shanghai this week. The cut to theme parks accounted for nearly $1 billion of the quarterly loss; reopening them will go along way toward restoring Disney’s financial performance. Disney facilities in Orlando are scheduled to start reopening on May 20.JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani sees hope for Disney in the reactivation of the theme parks. She writes, “…we continue to model domestic parks reopening on July 1. We also note that Disney World is still taking reservations starting June 1, while Disneyland in California pushed back reservations to July 1 from June 1 prior, but nevertheless this still suggests the park could reopen by July 1. We view any reopening of the parks as financially beneficial for Disney as even low capacity can help offset the fixed cost base…”Assuming that the parks will reopen as announced, Quadrani rates DIS shares a Buy, with a $135 price target suggesting a healthy upside of 31%. (To watch Quadrani’s track record, click here)Disney’s overall rating almost evenly split. The stock’s 23 analyst ratings include 12 Buys, along with 10 Holds and 1 Sell, making the consensus view a Moderate Buy. DIS shares have an average price target of $121.05, indicating a 17% premium from the current trading price of $103.24. (See Disney stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
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Tepper Says Stock Market Most Overvalued Ever Outside ‘99
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SBA Backs Off Legal Threat Against Firms That Didn’t Need Loans
(Bloomberg) — The Trump administration said firms that took loans that they didn’t need from a small business aid program will be allowed to repay the money without legal consequences, reversing an earlier threat that the government could pursue them criminally.New guidance issued Wednesday for the Paycheck Protection Program by the Small Business Administration and the Treasury Department also said that companies that took loans of less than $2 million will automatically be determined to have done so in good faith because they’re less likely to have access to other resources.The SBA will review all loans above $2 million to check whether firms properly certified they needed the money. If the SBA determines the company shouldn’t have gotten the money, the loan won’t be forgiven and if the borrower returns it, no further action will be taken, according to the new guidance.Assuming that loans of less than $2 million were taken in good faith will allow SBA to focus its resources on reviewing larger loans given the massive size of the program, the agencies said.Last month, following a backlash after large firms swooped in and collected millions from the PPP program — which was intended to cast a lifeline to small firms that didn’t have access to capital markets — Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had said that firms could face criminal charges for taking loans they didn’t need.Meanwhile, borrowers who commit fraud in taking relief loans are already being prosecuted. The Justice Department last week brought the first criminal case related to the program when it charged two New England businessmen with fraud and alleged that their applications falsely claimed employees they don’t have.The PPP program allows loans of as much as $10 million that can be become grants if proceeds are spent mostly on payroll for two months after they are received. It’s meant to keep workers employed and firms ready to re-open when state stay-at-home orders are lifted.After firms such as Shake Shack Inc. and the Los Angeles Lakers got loans at the expense of mom-and-pop shops, SBA and Treasury issued guidance April 23 saying companies with “substantial market value and access to capital markets” would be unlikely to qualify. Borrowers had to certify on their applications that “current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations” of the business.Companies had been given until May 7, later extended to Thursday, to return loans without any penalty. (Shake Shack and the Lakers did return the money). But there was confusion about eligibility, and some firms said they returned their loans “out of an abundance of caution” even if they believed they qualified for it.The SBA and Treasury haven’t disclosed how many companies have returned or canceled loans and in what amounts. Public companies have reported returning 61 loans worth $411 million as of Wednesday morning, according to data compiled by FactSquared.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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Airbus examining restructuring including job cuts – sources
Airbus is drawing up plans for a restructuring involving the possibility of “deep” job cuts as it braces for a prolonged coronavirus crisis after furloughing thousands of workers, industry sources said. Chief Executive Guillaume Faury is expected to update managers on Thursday after warning staff last month that the firm’s survival was at stake due to a slump in demand. Under French law, Toulouse-based Airbus cannot disclose restructuring plans internally before consulting trade unions through a formal exercise provisionally expected around end-May.
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‘Don’t fight the Fed’ mantra is working: Stifel strategist
The Stifel strategist who predicted April’s market rally says the best strategy right now is to be like the Road Runner: “Step out of the way and let anvil hit Wile E. Coyote — the economy. And then after that, the Fed will act and then you can move on, if you're the investor.”
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Powell Slams Door on Trump’s Negative Rates ‘Gift’
(Bloomberg Opinion) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made two things clear during much-anticipated remarks on Wednesday. First, fiscal policy might need to do more to combat the lasting economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic. Second — in what markets were most eager to hear — he’s not about to steer the central bank down the path to negative interest rates.“The evidence on the effectiveness of negative rates is very mixed,” Powell said Wednesday in a webinar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. To hammer home the point: “This is not something that we’re looking at.”“It’s an unsettled area, I would call it,” he said. “I know that there are fans of the policy, but for now it’s not something that we’re considering. We think we have a good toolkit, and that’s the one we’ll be using.”What was left unsaid, of course, is that one such fan is President Donald Trump, who tweeted on Tuesday that “as long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, the USA should also accept the ‘GIFT’. Big numbers!” Given his background in real estate (and racking up debt), it’s hardly a surprise that he’s enamored by the concept of being paid to borrow. This wasn’t the first time he endorsed the policy, and it certainly won’t be the last. Still, markets have largely become accustomed to tuning out the president’s off-the-cuff musings on monetary policy. Recently, however, the interests of bond traders and Trump have aligned. For days, fed funds futures have been pricing in a policy rate that’s below zero as soon as next year, even though current officials have widely indicated such a move is not in the cards. Here’s what that looked like before Powell spoke:The hedges gained traction on May 7, the day after DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said on Twitter that pressure will build to take the fed funds rate negative because the Treasury was borrowing so much with short-term bills (some of those rates have already fallen below zero in secondary trading). Then, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic vowed the central bank would deploy its full arsenal to aid the economy and would err on providing too much support, not too little. “It is really a whatever-it-takes scenario,” he said, echoing the famous phrase from Mario Draghi when he was president of the European Central Bank.The impulse makes some sense logically. If a trader had to bet on the direction of the fed funds rate in the coming year, it would have to be down. As Powell made clear after last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the central bank will be in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. He hinted during his remarks Wednesday that it could be a “few years” before the economy has truly recovered. More immediately, U.S. unemployment is at levels not seen since the Great Depression. It all would seem to add up to Fed officials pressured to do “more.”In a somewhat unusual stance for a Fed leader, Powell is imploring lawmakers to take further action, rather than the central bank. “This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can do to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible,” he said after the April FOMC meeting. The federal stimulus law has allocated some $454 billion in equity funding already for the Fed’s various lending facilities.He reiterated that view on Wednesday. “Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery,” Powell said at the end of his prepared remarks. “This trade-off is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending.” He added later that the goal should be boosting the economy such that it’s growing at a faster pace than the national debt. Powell didn’t entirely erase the negative fed funds pricing in futures markets — “for now” implies there’s a chance down the road. But he slammed the door as forcefully as he could on the policy while still preserving the central bank’s coveted “optionality.” It’s not that he wants to eradicate negative-rate bets, per se, he just doesn’t want to get boxed in by the markets.His comments should be put in the context of those from other Fed officials this week, who seemed committed to playing down the appeal of a negative fed funds rate. “I am not a big fan of going into the negative rate territory,” Bostic said on Monday. As if to clarify his point from last week: “Negative rates is one of the weaker tools in the tool kit. I am not anticipating supporting that anytime soon.” Just for good measure, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans added: “At best, we’d have to study it more, but I don’t anticipate that being a tool that we would be using in the U.S.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari insisted “there are other tools we would go to first.”In truth, this is not a new stance. Powell said during congressional testimony in February that negative interest rates can damage bank profitability, which worsens overall credit expansion. He brought up that issue again on Wednesday. Back in November, Fed Governor Lael Brainard made it clear that the central bank would first opt for enhanced forward guidance and some form of yield-curve control at the zero lower bound. Importantly, as I pointed out last month in a column arguing against negative interest rates, rather than stimulate economic activity, the policy might actually be disinflationary. That’s a scary proposition for Fed officials given that a report Tuesday showed the core U.S. consumer price index fell 0.4% in April from a month earlier, the biggest drop on record.There’s a long road to a full economic recovery, and missteps will be costly. The Fed has already pledged to support the credit markets to avoid turning “liquidity problems into solvency problems.” It still has to get lending facilities up and running to support municipalities and Main Street, which will have tangible and obvious economic benefits. Powell is no gambler, which is why negative interest rates will remain buried deep in the central bank’s toolkit.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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Citron Research Accuses Peloton Stock Of Peddling Its Way To Stupidity
Shares in home-fitness cycling company Peloton Interactive (PTON) have surged 10% in trading on May 12, bringing the stock’s year-to-date gain to over 65%. That’s after the company informed investors that it surpassed 1 million aggregate Connected Fitness subscribers.And now Andrew Left of Citron Research argues that enough is enough and investors should put Peloton into perspective: “This is retail mania – you can love the product, but stock has peddled its way to stupidity” tweeted the well-known activist short seller on May 12.As Left points out Peloton’s market cap has surged $5B this year; and with 300K connected subscribers that translates to $17K per subscriber.In contrast, the 2020 market cap for Teladoc (TDOC\- the telemedicine and virtual healthcare company) is up $8B vs. paid members up 6.2 million or $1300 per subscribers, Left tweeted.Nonetheless, five-star Stifel Nicolaus analyst Scott Devitt at Stifel Nicolaus has just raised his price target to $50 from $42, indicating 6% upside potential lies ahead. He also reiterated his Peloton buy rating.“Elevated demand for the company’s products has continued thus far into F4Q, with demand outpacing supply in most geographies,” Devitt explained, describing Peloton as “an unstoppable juggernaut to be stopped only by way of self-inflicted wound from here”.Indeed Wall Street analysts have an uniformly bullish outlook on Peloton stock. The Strong Buy consensus is due to 18 Buys ratings, vs just 1 Hold and 1 Sell.However, due to the recent rally, the $46.65 average price target now indicates that shares could pull back 1% from current levels- suggesting that, in this case, Left could be right. (See Peloton stock analysis on TipRanks).Related News: Peloton Shares Increase on 1 Million Fitness Subscriber Milestone Tesla’s Elon Musk to Reopen California Plant Despite Coronavirus Restrictions Microsoft to Splash $1.5 Billion on Italy’s Cloud Business Transformation More recent articles from Smarter Analyst: * CyberArk Software Shares Sink 6% on Weak Sales Outlook * Uber Announces $750M Notes Offering, As GrubHub Takeover Reports Swirl * Twitter Won’t Reopen Offices Before Sept., Allows Permanent Work From Home * Waymo Raises $3 Billion In Extended Financing Round
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