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• The House is expected to soon vote on a long-awaited aid package including support for Ukraine and Israel.
• The aid would be life-saving for Ukraine, helping resolve air defense and ammo issues.
• Ukraine's current condition is dire, experts say, and this moment is critical for its future.

Ukraine currently faces a grim outlook. Its forces are lacking sufficient numbers, low on just about everything, fatigued from two years of war, and in some places, barely holding on. Russia, on the other hand, has rebuilt its strength and is launching brash and devastating attacks that could give it further momentum.

It's perhaps the most perilous moment for Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and it could either be fixed or worsened by US lawmakers in Washington DC, some of whom have been holding assistance hostage for months now.

"It's a remarkable situation that the US really has tremendous agency in determining the course of this year," Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow and the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, explained to Business Insider.

"And it comes down to, really, this package being so critical," he added.

Kagan's assessment is in line with other experts and analysts who have been increasingly sounding the alarms on the importance of US aid to Ukraine. In recent weeks, it seems concerns have spiked, as Ukraine feels the effects of diminished US support.

Many observers of the war agree: Ukraine's fate rests on US support, and the future of that critical assistance rests in the hands of Congress, which is about to put it to an important vote.

Ukraine faces serious problems that this aid package could fix

It's been over six months since a $110 billion foreign aid package, which included roughly $61.4 billion for Ukraine, stalled in Congress. In the following months, Ukraine has urged the US to send more assistance, raising concerns about ammo shortages and Russia going on the advance against an ill-equipped Ukrainian defense.

As debates in Congress on aid continued into this year, Ukraine's situation got progressively worse. Now, potential scenarios that didn't seem likely months ago — such as the collapse of Ukrainian lines — are becoming plausible, Kagan explained.

The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in DC that is focused intently on the conflict, has been documenting recent Russian advances and consistently assessing that depleted US aid is severely hurting Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

Ukraine is currently facing a very bleak situation on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are low on artillery shells needed to keep Russian ground forces at bay, and they also lack sufficient air defenses, both systems and ammunition.

Additionally, manpower shortages are stretching the lines thin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law Tuesday that is aimed at overhauling Ukraine's mobilization rules, effectively making it possible to bring even older troops into a war already being fought by soldiers with an average age over 40.

And while Ukraine's been facing these issues for a months now, it has gotten severely worse — and continues to each day US assistance isn't approved. This aid package, however would provide immediate relief, experts argue.

"It will be life-saving," Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and strategist, told BI just weeks after visiting Ukraine, calling the planned aid "an enormous shot in the arm," and not just materially, but also for morale.

If the stalled aid package is approved, it remains to seen how the rollout of aid will go. The US will likely pull out all the stops to get the most urgent requirements for the next few months — such as artillery, air defenses, and electronic warfare equipment, for example — to Ukraine as soon as possible. But it has got to get through Congress first.

While US lawmakers have spent months debating Ukraine aid, Russia has been given a golden opportunity. Not only are its forces on the offensive, but it's been given time to reconstitute for future offensive operations. As the Russian war machine fires up, the army is putting pressure on Ukraine's defenses, seeing where it can potentially break through and seize territory.

"Russia is slowly building up its forces for future offensive operations in Ukraine," according to Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It continues, he explained, "to conduct probing attacks, intertwined with larger-scale assaults," to set itself up with certain tactical advantages for operations later this year.

But there is also a clear immediate effect. "The Russian military has been able to steadily press ahead and capture smaller swaths of territory in recent weeks," Gady said. The primary goal at the moment, though, appears to be to deplete Ukrainian forces.

An element of Russia's recent attacks have been air strikes on Ukraine's critical energy and defense infrastructure.

Along with slowly grinding down Ukrainian defenses, "Russia is also conducting a sustained campaign of air and missile strikes against critical infrastructure and other targets in various parts of Ukraine in an attempt to deplete Ukrainian air defenses," likely an attempt to "give Russian airpower more freedom to maneuver to engage Ukrainian targets at the front line in support of larger-scale ground operations later this year," Gady said.

As Ukraine struggles, Russia has achieved certain manpower, industrial, and materiel advantages. The top American general in Europe said last week that Russia has just about "grown back" its military strength to what it was when it invaded, while experts like Ryan have said it is "more dangerous" now than it was then.

"You can't deny that the effectiveness of the Russians has improved since the beginning of the war," Ryan said. There are still weaknesses and vulnerabilities, but ultimately, "two years of war has actually made the Russian military probably a better organization than what it was when it started."

And the longer that the war against Ukraine goes, the more they're going to learn. Experts like Kagan have warned that the Russians will pose a greater threat to NATO if they win this war.

Ukraine is stuck waiting to see how things turn out as it fights to survive

When House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson unveiled the long-awaited foreign aid package earlier this week and announced a vote possibly as soon as this weekend, he was met with expected resistance from some of the usual staunch Republican opposers, who called on Johnson to promote a stronger bill on border security along with the foreign aid assistance.

Such a deal has long been the proposed compromise between Democrats and Republicans. One massive, bipartisan immigration and foreign aid bill notably failed in Senate back in February. A $95 billion bill for security assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, however, passed in the Senate shortly after.

Johnson's planned foreign aid package comes in at a similar cost and includes about $61 billion for Ukraine. More than a third of that would be directed toward replenishing weapons and ammunition for the US military.

Aid to Ukraine is complicated, and the assistance packages have typically included military aid, humanitarian assistance, money for Ukraine's government, and funds for US operations related to assisting Ukraine. In the short term after a package is approved, the US transfers both US weapons and some purchased from allies to Ukraine. It also gets the funds to replenish its stockpiles and buy new weapons from defense contractors.

Both the Pentagon and the White House have long explained to Congress that these aid packages create and fuel defense production jobs across the country.

In the long term, the provided US aid allows Ukraine to purchase weapons which may need to be manufactured and, therefore, take a bit more time to secure.

Complications aside, the packages, like the one in the House, have profound effects. If this assistance passes, Kagan said, there's high confidence "that the Ukrainians would be able to slow and ultimately stop this Russian offensive and then very likely would be able to conduct counteroffensive operations to regain territory" likely next year.

Where US support for Ukraine goes from here

Whether the aid package passes or not, it's quite clear that American lawmakers — and voters — remain divided on the US role in supporting Ukraine.

That conversation "is part of a larger debate about America's place in the world," Ryan said. Those who may not see the need for the US to be involved in the security concerns of other countries, he said, may be short-sighted, overlooking the destructive consequences if Ukraine loses.

And a loss for Ukraine is a very real possibility. CIA Director William Burns said that without aid "there is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024," and even Zelenskyy has acknowledged retreat and a loss could be the outcome without further support. The ramifications of that could be dire.

Experts, officials, and analysts have long warned that if Russian President Vladimir Putin is ultimately successful in achieving victory in Ukraine, it could have serious consequences, not only for the people of Ukraine, but for others globally. A win for Russia could embolden it to take further aggressive action and potentially encourage others, like China and North Korea, to throw their weight around, stirring further tensions and conflict.

A victorious Russia could take its war towards NATO, possibly leading to a devastating and large-scale conflict directly involving the US.

"Americans really need to understand that we are standing on a fundamental precipice," Kagan said. Cutting off assistance to Ukraine, which could lead to its loss against Russia, will not only jeopardize American security, he said, but also "actually significantly increase the likelihood that Americans will have to enter wars ourselves."

Kagan wrote something similar earlier this week, noting that "the US thus has only two real choices today. It can quickly resume providing military aid to let Ukraine stabilize the front lines near the current locations. Or it can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland.  There is no third option."

Johnson himself told reporters something similar earlier this week, saying that, "to put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys."

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• Tesla is voluntarily recalling almost 4,000 Cybertrucks, NHTSA said.
• The affected vehicles have a fault with their accelerators that could cause the pedal to jam, it said.
• Tesla said it was not aware of any collisions, injuries, or deaths related to the fault.

Tesla is voluntarily recalling almost 4,000 Cybertrucks over a fault with their accelerators, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said.

The recall covers all Cybertruck vehicles made between November 13, 2023, and April 4, 2024. NHTSA said that this included an estimated 3,878 vehicles, all of which it said would have the defect.

"When high force is applied to the pad on the accelerator pedal, the pad may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal," NHTSA said in the recall report, noting that this could increase the risk of a collision.

NHTSA said that the fault had occurred because of an "unapproved change" to the vehicle's production in which soap had been added to the component assembly. "Residual lubricant reduced the retention of the pad to the pedal," it said.

NHTSA said in the recall report that Tesla received its first alert from a customer about the fault on March 31 and got a second just days later. After conducting an assessment, Tesla decided on April 12 to voluntarily recall the vehicle, NHTSA said.

Tesla will fix or replace the accelerator pedal assembly on the recalled Cybertrucks at no charge, NHTSA said. Owners will be notified mid-June, it said. Cybertrucks at delivery centers will also be fixed or have their parts replaced.

As of April 15, Tesla said it was not aware of any collisions, injuries, or deaths related to the fault. "We are just being very cautious," CEO Elon Musk posted on X on Wednesday.

Earlier this month, the owner of a Cybertruck said in a viral TikTok video that part of his accelerator pedal came loose while he was driving and got stuck on "full throttle."

The first Cybertrucks were delivered to customers in November after a series of delays. The electric pickup truck has a base price of $60,990 for the rear-wheel drive model, though this model is yet to be released to the public.

Are you affected by the Cybertruck recall? Email this reporter at gdean@insider.com.

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• This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.
• You can sign up for Business Insider's daily newsletter here.

Good morning. An Israeli strike hit Iran on Thursday night, per multiple reports that cited US officials. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike.

In today's newsletter, we're looking at the first week of former President Donald Trump's criminal trial and what's at stake.

What's on deck:

• Markets: Based on recent comments from Fed officials, don't hold your breath for rate cuts.

• Tech: Meet Y Combinator's newest group partner.

• Business: Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is working.

But first, let's head to the courtroom.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.

The big story

A Presidential trial

A former US president and a porn star walk into a courtroom.

What sounds like the start of a joke is a soon-to-be reality.

Former President Donald Trump's hush-money trial — the first-ever criminal trial of a former president — got underway this week with jury selection.

Despite the historical relevance, so far it's been a bit of a snooze. Literally. Trump appeared to nod off in court. Meanwhile, keeping jurors on the case became a bit of a problem before 12 were ultimately chosen yesterday.

We did get a preview of Trump's potential defense: "Some accountant" handled the paperwork he's on trial for, Trump told reporters. And there have been some great courtroom sketches.

However, things are set to heat up in the coming weeks.

The trial is focused on 34 felonies alleging the Trump Organization's business records were falsified to hide other crimes. That might not seem spicy. But prosecutors say some books were cooked, in part, to hide a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.

That means Daniels will eventually take the stand and likely testify that she had sex with Trump in 2006.

How Trump, who has steadfastly denied there was a sexual encounter, reacts will be interesting to see. The former president has previously been reprimanded for his courtroom outbursts.

The trial is expected to take about six weeks, wrapping up in late May or early June.

Trump's legal team still has appeals underway regarding the case. But a mid-trial stoppage would be highly unlikely, according to legal experts.

So, barring a hung jury, that basically leaves one of two outcomes:

Trump gets acquitted. From a legal perspective, this would be the least complicated. But a win in the hush-money trial doesn't mean Trump is out of the woods. He faces three other criminal trials related to the 2020 election and the holding of classified documents, all of which are still in the indictment stage.

Trump is found guilty on some or all charges. Here's where things get tricky.

Trump will almost certainly appeal the conviction. In the meantime, there is nothing in the Constitution preventing a convicted felon from running for president. In fact, it's happened before, but both candidates were longshots.

Still, Trump might not be able to vote for himself come November. Convicted felons in Florida, where Trump is registered to vote, are disenfranchised until after completing their sentences.

Which gets to the bigger question: Could Trump actually see jail time?

Trump's campaign is suggesting as much, texting supporters that he "could be locked up for life." But legal experts Business Insider spoke to said the former president likely won't spend time behind bars.

But if Trump did go to jail and won November's election…

No one seems to know how a sitting US president could run the country from a jail cell. And while Trump could pardon himself as president, that only applies to federal crimes and has never been done before.

3 things in markets

1. The Fed wants you to know it will not be rushed into a rate cut. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the central bank's policy will eventually loosen up, "but we don't have to do that in a hurry." New York Fed President John Williams is in a similar boat: "I definitely don't feel an urgency to cut interest rates."

2. Speaking of annoyingly high rates… Mortgage rates have spiked above 7% again. That coincides with the housing market screeching to a halt, as March saw the largest monthly drop in existing home sales in over a year.

3. These six stocks are set to benefit from the AI data center boom. It takes massive data centers to train and distribute large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT for public use. Bank of America highlighted six stocks to buy if you're looking to take advantage of the trend.

3 things in tech

1. Meet Y Combinator's newest group partner. David Lieb, the man who led Google Photos to 1 billion users, is stepping into the role. His move comes after a year and a half of advising at the startup accelerator.

2. Google just made a huge company shakeup. CEO Sundar Pichai announced a series of reorgs in an effort to move faster in AI. As a result, Demis Hassabis, Google's DeepMind chief, has gained more power, and the head of Pixel will also oversee Android.

3. Is tech dealmaking back? Bankers and venture capitalists nibbled on caviar sushi and sipped champagne and sake at the closing dinner of the Jefferies Private Investor Conference, BI's Ben Bergman writes. There was talk of a comeback for IPOs and M&As, and plenty of buzz about generative AI being a new catalyst for rising tech valuations.

3 things in business

1. ALICEs abound. More Americans are becoming ALICEs, an acronym for asset-limited, income-constrained, and employed. The growing demographic earns too much to qualify for government assistance but not enough to afford daily life.

2. Samsung execs reportedly got a schedule change — and not a fun one. Executives now have to work six days a week, according to the Korea Economic Daily. It's a shift into "emergency mode," brought on by economic headwinds and underwhelming 2023 results.

3. Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is working. The streaming giant added more than 9 million subscribers over the first quarter, smashing Wall Street's expectations. That bodes well for Disney and Warner Bros., which plan to follow suit later this year. But Netflix's shares still tumbled in premarket trading after it posted a disappointing revenue outlook.

In other news

• OpenAI rival Mistral is in talks to raise up to $2 billion in new funding, sources say.

• Blackstone's data-center bets have climbed 10-fold to $100 billion in just 3 years. And it's just the start, Steve Schwarzman says.

• Netflix is going to stop telling the world how many subscribers it has. Why?

• I'm a filmmaker testing OpenAI's video generator Sora. It's incredibly liberating, but not ready for Hollywood yet.

• Amazon Prime looked like it had plateaued. Now a record 3 out of 4 Americans use it.

• Taylor Swift surprised fans with 15 more songs from 'The Tortured Poets Department' 2 hours after the album was released.

• Read the email Stability AI leaders sent employees announcing layoffs.

• The world's largest chipmaker just issued a warning that the industry's red-hot growth could slow.

• We now know more about where Tesla is slashing jobs.

• Amazon dominates influencer-driven purchases, new data shows. Here are 5 other key takeaways about social shopping.

What's happening today

• Today's earnings: American Express, Procter & Gamble, and other companies are reporting.

• Taylor Swift's new album, "The Tortured Poets Department," is released.

• Bitcoin's fourth halving is expected as early as today.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London.

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• I was put on a PIP after working at my company for 10 years, so I decided to quit. 
• After not being able to find a new job, I retired at 58, and it's been a mix of both good and bad.
• I sometimes wish I could have kept working, but I am enjoying retirement.

After working in my position for nine years as a communications specialist for a healthcare association headquartered in Chicago, I was put on a performance improvement plan (PIP) during my 10th annual job review.

"Has my performance changed so much from my last exemplary review?" I asked, knowing that my previous review had been conducted by a former boss who was no longer at the company.

She said all employees were pressured to improve their skills and efforts. As a result of the PIP, I was sent to the human resources department to fill out paperwork outlining how my boss would closely supervise my work. I had three months to improve.

As a 58-year-old, I worried about what this would mean for my career, but it became an opportunity for me to retire early.

I walked away from the job I had held for nearly a decade

I signed all the paperwork with HR and went back to my boss. I wanted to ensure she understood what was happening and get additional guidance on avoiding termination. I started to get nervous.

After an uncomfortable meeting with human resources the following day, I left the company voluntarily. I did not want to stick around to see how this situation worked out; I felt I already had enough information to know my days there were numbered.

Leaving my job with no plan was unsettling. My normal approach would not be so rash. I prefer to have a plan and know my next steps. I especially worried about my financial situation.

I went on several interviews, but I felt forced to retire

Shortly after I left the association, I started working part-time for a vendor I had previously done business with. I started to apply for full-time positions and go to interviews. Many of these interviews went well but somehow never resulted in an offer. I wondered if it was because I was close to the retirement age.

I could have continued working for the vendor, but the money was not worth the effort and the long commute. Meanwhile, my personal life was getting complicated. My daughter wanted help planning her upcoming wedding, my mother needed more oversight as she approached 90, and I craved more freedom to travel.

So, I decided to retire — in my 50s.

Being a young retiree has its pros and cons

I'm younger than most retirees by almost a decade — which is a blessing and a curse.

I decided to keep freelance writing. I also started writing a longer project about my father's teenage experiences as a Holocaust survivor, so having more time was welcome. In addition, I began volunteering as a docent at the Newseum, which brought me a lot of satisfaction.

Plus, being young enough to do some adventure travel is a nice perk, and I enjoyed going on an African safari and bike trips to California's wine country. It was also helpful to have extra time to help plan my daughter and son's weddings and be involved in all the pre-wedding activities. Having time to do what you want is a definite benefit of being a young retiree.

Sometimes, though, I wish I wasn't a young retiree.

I can't help but feel I still had a few more years left of full-time work in me, so I sometimes regret retiring so young. A person's late 50s and early 60s is a good time to build up one's Social Security account because they are generally peak earning years. So, from a financial viewpoint, I feel like retiring early could have been detrimental for me.

I'm also worried I will quickly lose grip on technological advances. Those advancements easily become part of your regular work environment, but as a retiree, I'm worried I'll fall behind.

Either way, I wonder if my age played a role in all of this

In the end, it all worked out, but I do wonder if my age was the cause of all of this.

According to the AARP research, "Two in three adults ages 50-plus in the labor force (64%) think older workers face age discrimination in the workplace. And among them, all (90%) believe (it) is common in the workplace."

I won't ever know for sure if I was put on a PIP because of my age, nor will I know if I struggled to find a new job for the same reason, but I now stand by my decision to retire and start a new phase. After all, I was given the opportunity to reinvent myself and try new things.

Retirement is a time of rediscovery and transformation, and exploiting that opportunity is the best way to win the game of life.

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• Israel carried out a limited military strike on Iranian soil on Friday morning.
• The attack was seemingly in response to Iran's missile and drone attacks at the weekend.
• Analysts said the strike was likely a demonstration of Israel's capacity to reach Iranian nuclear sites.

Israel carried out a military strike on Iranian soil in the early hours of Friday morning, US sources and an Israeli official told multiple international news outlets.

It marks the latest exchange in the ongoing conflict between the two countries, which until recently had largely played out in the shadows.

Following calls for restraint by Israel's allies after Iran sent a barrage of missiles and drones toward Israel last weekend — itself the result of an Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus — the latest attack was limited in scope and caused little to no damage.

In fact, analysts say it was primarily orchestrated to send a message: Israel can reach deep into Iranian soil, including its nuclear sites.

While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, an unnamed Israeli official told The Washington Post that it was in retaliation for last Saturday's attack.

The unnamed official told the Post that the attack was not orchestrated to cause damage but rather to demonstrate Israel's capacity to strike deep inside Iran.

Two unnamed Israeli defense officials also told The New York Times that the Israeli military had mounted the attack.

Reports said that explosions were heard close to an Iranian military base near Isfahan, with Iranian state media outlet IRNA reporting that air defense systems had been activated.

Natanz is in Ifsahan, a province in Iran that houses the country's primary nuclear enrichment facility, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that nuclear facilities were undamaged. IRNA reported the same.

Sources told The Jerusalem Post that Israel hoped to highlight the vulnerability of Iranian nuclear sites to potential Israeli attacks, emphasizing that they could be future targets.

The message was that Israel chose not to hit Iran's nuclear sites at this moment, "but we could have done worse right here," sources told The Jerusalem Post.

Jonathan Conricus, a former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, made a similar point on X: "I think they've gotten the message: Israel can penetrate Iranian defenses and strike wherever it wants."

Richard Goldberg, who previously directed efforts to counter Iranian production of weapons of mass destruction for the White House National Security Council, also said on X that escalation was not the objective.

"Israel demonstrating its capability to reach inside Iran at will," he wrote. "That is the step taken tonight to begin restoring deterrence."

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful not military purposes, but Israel and some Western governments suspect that the efforts go beyond the scope of civilian use.

On Thursday, before the latest attack, Ahmad Haqtalab, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer, told IRNA that it would review its current "doctrine and nuclear policies" if Israel attacked nuclear facilities.

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• Mark Zuckerberg talked about his budding friendship with Jensen Huang in a new podcast.
• The Meta boss said the Nvidia CEO once invited him to his house to cook cheesesteaks.
• The Meta chief recently praised Huang in Time100's Most Influential People of 2024 list.

Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang's friendship appears to be Silicon Valley's latest bromance.

They have a lot in common: both run Big Tech firms worth trillions, they each have a signature jacket, and now they're bonding over cheesesteaks.

The Meta CEO said the dynamic duo like to break bread and revealed what they chat about when they get together.

On a podcast with internet personality Roberto Nickson that dropped on Thursday, Zuck said: "Jensen is really into cooking, so he invited me over to his house."

He added: "When we went over to his place, he was like, 'Let's make cheesesteaks,' and I'm like, 'hell yeah, let's make cheesesteaks'."

Zuck also shared that Huang talks to him about how he approaches building Nvidia and the pair exchange stories and experiences from running their own companies.

"He and I, at this point, are the longest-standing tech founders of Big Tech companies," Zuck said.

The Meta chief is worth $178 billion, per Bloomberg, and just became the world's third-richest person, overtaking Elon Musk. Huang is worth less than half as much — $74.6 billion.

However, the positions are reversed when it comes to the value of their respective companies: the chipmaker is worth $2.1 trillion, while the Facebook and Instagram owner trails at just $1.3 trillion.

Zuckerberg recently posted a photo on Instagram showing they'd swapped their jackets. Zuck wrote in a comment: "He's like Taylor Swift, but for tech."

Zuck's also sustained their budding bromance by writing a profile of Huang for Time magazine's Time100: Most Influential People of 2024 list.

He wrote: "I always admired leaders who have the grit and determination to stick with their vision for long periods of time. Jensen Huang is the clear leader of the tech industry in this regard."

Zuck praised Huang's ability to "evolve and execute" and build Nvidia into a power player in AI. "On top of this, Jensen has also taken the time to help me and other founders when we've faced challenges. I'm deeply appreciative of everything he has done for our industry."

Representatives for Zuckerberg at Meta and Huang and Nvidia did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider, made outside normal working hours.

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• TSMC's Arizona chip factories have faced construction delays. 
• But the company said it's "well on track" to start producing chips at its first factory in 2025.
• TSMC plans to charge more for chips made outside Taiwan to combat higher manufacturing costs. 

Things may be starting to look up for the world's leading chipmaker.

Last year, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported its first profit decline in four years. But on April 18, the company reported its strongest sales growth since 2022, and rising quarterly profits that beat expectations. The Taiwan-based TSMC also forecast that second-quarter sales could rise as much as 30% on the backs of "insatiable" demand for chips used to power AI technologies like ChatGPT.

But for the US, in particular, the most important detail from the call may have been the update on the construction timeline of TSMC's Arizona chips factories. TSMC said it had made "significant progress" on the construction of its first Arizona factory — located in the Phoenix area — and that it was "well on track" to begin producing chips in the first half of 2025. The company said engineering wafer production began at the factory in April, an important step toward the eventual chip production.

The chipmaker's commitment to building three factories on its Phoenix campus is a key pillar of the Biden administration's efforts to boost the US's manufacturing of chips that power everything from cars to iPhones. Bolstering domestic manufacturing could also make the US less reliant on Taiwan — which faces the potential risk of a Chinese invasion.

TSMC's progress is also important for President Joe Biden because Arizona is a key swing state in the upcoming presidential election. The company's investment is expected to create roughly 6,000 "high wage" jobs across the factories, in addition to over 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier jobs.

However, construction has faced a series of challenges. Last July, TSMC announced that chip production for the first factory would be postponed from 2024 to 2025. A lack of skilled construction workers in the US was cited as a reason for the first factory's delay. Additionally, in January, the opening of its second factory was delayed from 2026 to 2027 or 2028.

Barring further setbacks, TSMC's update could mean the first factory will begin production of chips in 2025. In recent weeks, however, a report from the Chinese news outlet money.udn has fed speculation among some experts that production could begin by the end of 2024 — TSMC has stuck to the 2025 timeline in public comments.

The sooner chip production begins, the sooner Americans will have access to the "long term," non-construction jobs TSMC has promised, Dylan Patel, a chief analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told Business Insider.

During the earnings call, TSMC said 2028 was the scheduled opening of the second factory. The third factory is expected to begin production by 2030.

TSMC is planning to charge more for chips made outside Taiwan

Earlier this month, TSMC got more good news: The Biden administration announced it was providing the company with up to $6.6 billion in direct funding and an additional $5 billion in proposed loans to support its investment in Arizona.

Chipmakers have been vying for funding from the CHIPS and Science Act, legislation passed in 2022 that's expected to fund over $200 billion in US chip production.

This funding could be particularly important for TSMC, given the cost of factory construction and chip manufacturing can differ between the US and Taiwan.

In 2022, TSMC's founder Morris Chang said that US efforts to boost chip production would be "a wasteful, expensive exercise in futility," adding that "manufacturing chips in the US is 50% more expensive than in Taiwan."

In its first-quarter earnings call, TSMC said that cost pressures would cause it to charge more for chips made outside Taiwan, the Financial Times reported. The company also has plans to build two factories in Japan and one in Germany.

"If a customer requests to be in a certain geographical area, the customer needs to share the incremental cost," TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said during the earnings call.

While boosting the US manufacturing of chips and other products could create jobs and help secure supply chains, it could also lead to higher prices for American consumers.

If Apple, for instance, follows through on its commitment to source chips from TSMC's Arizona factories, it could make the latest iPhone more expensive.

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• The US is recovering from a physician shortage and worker numbers remain below pre-pandemic trends.
• Small businesses are seeing labor growth this year, but hospitals still have staffing shortages.
• One reason why is that workers in the healthcare sector have seen "soft wage growth" recently.

The US may be recovering from a physician shortage, but don't expect to spend less time in hospital waiting rooms this year.

Healthcare worker numbers are steadily growing but remain below pre-pandemic trends, according to a Bank of America report published in April. The bank's data and analysis firm, The Bank of America Institute, based findings on internal workforce data collected between 2019 and 2024.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the healthcare sector is 1.6% behind on growth based on pre-pandemic projections. Outpatient care centers are 9.4% behind on growth, while the hospital labor force has seen small gains at 0.3%.

One of the reasons job growth has been behind, according to the Bank of America report, is that workers in the healthcare sector have also seen "soft wage growth" in recent years. Additionally, the report found many employees are still underpaid because they tend to interact more with clients and work more labor-intensive hours than employees in other industries.

Between April 2022 and April 2023 — the most recent available data — the national median time patients spent in the emergency department was 162 minutes, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In the same period between 2020 and 2021, CMS found that time was 149 minutes.

The pandemic worsened an already growing problem, as unemployment rates jumped, more people needed urgent medical care, and reports of doctor and nurse burnout skyrocketed. In fact, healthcare workers made up a significant portion of the people leaving their jobs during the Great Resignation.

Ambulatory care — which includes all appointments and treatments that don't require hospital admission — makes up half of all jobs in the healthcare sector, Bank of America found. Hospitals employ just over 30% of healthcare workers while under 20% of employees work at nursing and residential care facilities.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the healthcare sector employed about 10% of total US workers last year, a share of the labor force that has remained consistent for the past decade.

This ongoing shortage comes as Americans worry about medical debt, the rising price of prescription drugs, and the staggering costs of emergency medical care. Per KFF (formerly known as Kaiser Family Foundation), three in four US adults say that healthcare is one of their top financial concerns.

Patients will still see labor shortages in ERs and care facilities

Despite labor gains, patients could still experience the impacts of the physician shortage. The US is expected to face a physician shortage of up to 86,000 people by 2036, according to the American Hospital Association.

The Bank of America report found that small businesses, defined as healthcare offices with fewer than 20 employees, are seeing the strongest rebound growth. For patients, this might result in more available appointments with specialists and private practice doctors.

Many small businesses hired more full-time healthcare workers instead of temporary contractors in February 2024 compared to February 2023, according to Bank of America.

Still, patients will likely still feel the consequences of labor gaps when they visit the hospitals and long-term care facilitates.

Longer ER stays, for example, are an indicator that hospitals are "understaffed or overcrowded," according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

There has also slower labor recovery at long-term care facilities. This could lead to longer patient waitlists for residential care.

A report published in March from the nonprofit Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF shows that the number of people in skilled nursing jobs, retirement care jobs, and roles that provide care for people with developmental disabilities are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Burnout and low pay mean slow jobs recovery

The Bank of America report suggests that a lack of wage growth could be contributing to doctor and nurse shortages. Healthcare workers have labor-intensive jobs, and low pay could be making it more difficult for hospitals and care facilities to attract employees, the report found.

Average wages for healthcare workers have increased overall since the beginning of the pandemic, but KFF said this could be because fewer low-wage workers are employed in industry.

A 2023 National Institute of Health study found that inadequate pay is the most frequently cited reason employees give for burnout and leaving medicine.

Despite the slow gains, the Bank of America's report said it's a good sign that healthcare facilities appear to be hiring more full-time workers in 2024.

"Our finding that contract payments are easing indicates that firms may be under less pressure from labor shortages," the report said. "This could imply normalizing employment growth ahead."

Are you a healthcare worker experiencing burnout? Are you a patient who has experienced long wait times because of hospital staffing shortages? Reach out to this reporter at allisonkelly@insider.com.

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• Over 30 million "peak boomers" are entering retirement financially unprepared.
• The economy could take a hit, with industries like manufacturing and education needing to replace boomer workers.
• Those new retirees will likely be disproportionately leaning on Social Security to stay afloat.

The youngest baby boomers are about to enter retirement — and most of them aren't financially prepared for this next stage of their life.

Beginning this year, over 30 million boomers born from 1959 to 1964 will start to turn 65, marking the "largest and final cohort" of that generation entering retirement, according to a new report from the Alliance for Lifetime Income's Retirement Income Institute.

This cohort is known as "peak boomers," and per the report, most of them are on track for significant economic headwinds. It's what some have called the boomer retirement bomb — and it might be costly for the rest of the workers in the economy.

Through an analysis of data from the Federal Reserve and the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, the report found that 52.5% of peak boomers have $250,000 or less in assets, meaning that they'll likely deplete their savings and rely primarily on income from Social Security in retirement. Additionally, another 14.6% of that cohort have $500,000 or less in assets, meaning "nearly two-thirds will strain to meet their needs in retirement," the report said.

"America has never seen so many people reaching retirement age over a short period, and well over half of them will find it challenging to meet their needs through their retirements, let alone maintain their current standard of living," Robert Shapiro, an author of the report and the former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs, said in a statement. "They lack the protected income that many older Boomers have from solid pensions or higher savings."

The peak boomers' retirement wave could also impact the overall US economy. The report projects that employers will have to replace as many as 14.8 million peak boomers — primarily in the manufacturing, healthcare, and education industries — which could decrease economic productivity.

On top of that, the generation's retirement is likely to have an impact on consumer spending. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the report found that peak boomers will spend $204 billion less in 2032 than they did in 2022, with the transportation sector taking the biggest hit.

Still, as the report noted, younger employees are likely to fill some of the jobs that peak boomers will leave, and productivity will rise as technology advances.

The crisis is partially due to changes in how Americans save for retirement

Peak boomers entered the workforce just as retirement plans shifted away from defined benefit plans like pensions — which generally guarantee stable income and are employer-subsidized — to defined contribution plans like 401(k)s, which rely on workers to pay into them.

Per the report, out of the different types of retirement savings, defined benefit pensions have the least disparities along racial, gender, and ethnicity lines (although annual payments see big disparities) — but only 24% of peak boomers hold them, and even those plans are coming up against potential underfunding.

Already, many retirement-aged Americans are living on paltry incomes. A little over half of Americans over 65 live on incomes of $30,000 or under a year, per the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, with the largest share living on $10,000 to $19,000. And, per Business Insider's calculations of CPS ASEC data, 79.2% of retirees receive some type of Social Security income.

Retirement-aged Americans, many of whom fall in that peak boomer category, previously told Business Insider that they might just have to continue working until they die — or become infirm — to stay afloat.

"Only the very wealthy are going to have any dignity in their old age," Pam, who is nearly 58, said. "And the rest of us are just going to pray that they can die while they still have a job because nobody wants to die on the street."

Are you a boomer unprepared for retirement? Contact these reporters at asheffey@businessinsider.com and jkaplan@businessinsider.com.

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• A Seattle basic income pilot gave low-income residents $500 a month, nearly doubling employment among participants.
• The majority of the selected participants were people of color.
• Basic income pilots nationwide have seen noteworthy success, despite conservative opposition.

A Seattle guaranteed basic income pilot gave low-income residents $500 a month to help reduce poverty. Employment in the group nearly doubled, and numerous unhoused residents secured housing.

The Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County launched a 10-month guaranteed basic income pilot program with 102 participants in fall 2022. New findings by research firm Applied Inference reveal that the $5,000 total payments improved participants' quality of life, housing, and employment outcomes.

"These results showcase the power of community investment and the necessity of equitable solutions to address persistent barriers," said Marie Kurose, CEO of the WDC, in a statement. "The WDC will continue to use these insights to amplify our impact and drive transformative change in our region."

Though they have various characteristics and qualifications, guaranteed basic income programs offer direct cash payments to selected participants for a set amount of time. Some programs require participants to report what they use the monthly cash on, while others offer funds with no strings attached.

In the Seattle pilot program, public and private partners — such as King County, the Employment Security Department, and Chase Bank — provided funding to the participants, about 88% of whom were people of color. King County is a mostly white, wealthy county, according to Census data.

Employment among the participants almost doubled from 37% before the program to 66% post-pilot. Participants also reported getting higher-paying jobs with additional benefits. Participants' average incomes increased from $2,995 a month to $3,405.

The percentage of participants whose jobs provided a retirement plan nearly tripled, while life insurance doubled. Over a quarter of participants reported acquiring disability insurance in their new jobs, which none of them had in their previous jobs.

Participants also reported being more financially stable, meaning they could pay off bills and debts while building up more savings for the future. For instance, the percent of participants with savings increased from 24% to 35% — for families with children, this increased from 0% to 42%. The percentage of those able to consistently pay their bills doubled from 19% to 38%. The percentage of those behind on all debts stayed stagnant.

The payments contributed to less anxiety and fatigue and more freedom to travel and spend on non-essentials. Likely due to increased ability to seek treatment, some also reported reduced physical pain, allowing them to go about their days more easily and complete educational or professional goals.

Parents reported using the payments mainly for their children's needs, though many said they couldn't significantly strengthen their own financial position. Parents were less likely to have started short-term professional training compared to non-parents.

Many participants said they wanted the program to continue for a full year rather than 10 months, while others suggested higher monthly payments as high as $1,000.

The results are on trend with those of similar pilot programs nationwide, which have seen massive success. Participants in universal and guaranteed basic income programs have widely reported that the funds helped them pay off debts, as well as afford groceries, childcare, and housing.

Even so, conservative lawmakers nationwide have loudly advocated against the programs, claiming that they discourage work and cost taxpayers. However, many of the pilot programs are funded privately by philanthropy or by federal relief funds. Republicans in several state legislatures have pushed efforts to ban basic income programs in their states.

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