Category: Business

• American Airlines employs more than 15,000 pilots to fly its fleet of Airbus and Boeing planes.
• New hires spend 19 days doing ground and simulator training before flying passengers.
• Students train for everything from wind sheer and go-arounds to engine and hydraulics failures.

Airline pilots, who are responsible for hundreds of lives daily, dedicate years of training and studying to earn their seats in the cockpit.

Most start their careers flying smaller jets at regional airlines and build up to flying Airbus and Boeing planes at the mainline carriers. Before they can fly passengers, however, new hires must complete weeks of ground and simulator training.

I recently toured the flight academy at American's headquarters in Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, with Alan Johnson, American's managing director of flight training and standards and veteran captain.

"It's not a cakewalk; it's challenging," he said. "We put our pilots into stressful situations, and that's good because when they leave here, we want them to not only have the competence but the confidence to go out into the operation and do what the airline asked them to do."

New hires must complete about three weeks of ground and simulator training

Johnson said about 2,100 new pilots were hired by American in 2023, who joined the company's roster of some 15,000 others.

Most new hires will train to fly American's Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 family narrowbody airplanes. To earn their type rating, they must spend 19 days completing ground and simulator training, Johnson said.

The first half of the new hire course includes eight days of ground school, followed by an evaluation day.

The flight academy, which is open 365/24/7, has several classrooms and "visual flight trainers" that new hires use during the ground course to prepare for the FAA-approved tests.

"You need to show you can do things like set up different types of approaches and complete an originating pre-flight," Johnson said.

Once new hires complete the first phase of training, Johnson said they will spend five days in American's giant, multimillion-dollar full-motion simulators.

The 39-strong fleet of simulators is as close as possible trainees can get to flying a real jet from the ground.

These machines can simulate nearly every possible movement in a passenger jetliner, such as turbulence, wind shear, and landing. The latter involves a pitch-down motion to make it feel like the trainees are stopping.

"We want trainees to feel really confident with their skillset to fly around weather, be able to make the decision to divert, and know what to do when they have a medical emergency," he said, among other responsibilities.

I experienced a 787 flight simulator, and it was as real as it gets

American let me experience a Boeing 787 Dreamliner simulator and its full movement. It was as realistic as I imagined, simulating everything from takeoff and cruise to emergency alarms and landing.

A 787 instructor flew a simulated trip from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to Mount Rainer and back, showing me how pilots use systems like the heads-up display, the flaps, and the autopilot.

Johnson said the training sessions last four hours and are split into two two-hour blocks with a short break in between. Two new hires will train together and switch between the roles of pilot monitoring and pilot flying.

Simulator training covers every phase of flight, with some sessions focusing on specific scenarios, such as go-arounds, slow flight situations, and steep turns.

Instructors will also throw emergency situations at the new hires, like engine and generator failures, flaps that don't extend properly, and pitot tubes that get blocked and give an unreliable airspeed.

"You've got sirens and clackers that you cannot silence, all those distractions," Johnson said, who has about 20,000 hours of flight time under his belt piloting everything from the MD-80 to the 787. "We train for all of it."

After those five days, the new hires will complete a few more evaluations before operating a simulated gate-to-gate roundtrip flight. This is all in preparation for the final type-rating test, which is conducted by the FAA at the academy in partnership with American.

American's most senior widebody captains make $447 per hour

Once pilots pass all of their necessary checks and have their type rating on the jet they trained to fly, they start their "operating experience," or OE.

Johnson said OE involves flying 25 hours of revenue passenger flights with a check airman, who is a specific instructor authorized to conduct line evaluations.

"All of the new hires we trained at American in 2023, 96% of them went through training without any additional time," he said. "That's a testament to our instructors."

Still, the schooling never stops. Veteran pilots complete recurrent training every year to maintain their proficiency and skills. Their seniority at American — and at Delta and United, for that matter — comes with a pretty paycheck.

At the US' three largest airlines, new-hire pilots start with a base pay of $116 per hour, or $111,000 yearly. 12-year widebody captains can make up to $447 per hour, or about $430,000 a year.

That's before per diem, bonuses, and other extra pay.

• Adjusting for inflation, airfares are much more affordable than they were nearly 30 years ago. 
• But plenty of Americans remain frustrated by flight prices. 
• BI asked experts why inflation-adjusted airfares have fallen and why some people haven't noticed. 

The last time you bought a plane ticket, you probably got a better deal than you realized. That's because, believe it or not, airfares are much more affordable than they were three decades ago.

In 1995, the average US domestic airfare was $292 — excluding optional fees, like ones related to baggage — according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In 2023, the average fare was $382, up over 30% from 1995. However, the story changes dramatically when adjusting for inflation. In 2023 dollars, the average airfare fell from $584 to $382 between 1995 and 2023, a nearly 35% decline.

It means that flying, like the prices of televisions and toys, is much more affordable than it used to be. But if you ask some Americans, airfares have gotten out of control in recent years.

"There's little doubt in my mind that people think airfare is at historic highs and getting more expensive," Scott Keyes, an airline industry expert and the founder of travel-membership service Going.com, told Business Insider via email. "We are living in the golden age of cheap flights, but few people recognize it."

Additionally, Mike Daher, a transportation expert at Deloitte, said in a report published in May that there's "a perception that airfares and room rates are high, and some Americans are sitting out travel this summer as they look for softer pricing."

It's not just domestic flights that have gotten more affordable. Keyes said international inflation-adjusted airfares for US passengers have also generally fallen over the past decade.

Frustrations over flying costs could be among the reasons the share of Americans with a negative opinion of the airline industry is at the highest level since 2011, according to a Gallup survey of over 1,000 US adults conducted last August. The federal government seems to have taken notice. In January, a federal judge blocked the JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger after the Biden Administration raised concerns about the impact it would have on flight prices. In April, the Department of Transportation announced a rule it said would protect consumers from "surprise junk fees" — such as the costs of additional baggage and reservation changes — and save fliers over $500 million a year.

To be sure, any frustrations about airfare prices haven't stopped many Americans from flying. When pandemic restrictions eased, Americans unleashed their pent-up travel demand on the airline industry. And that momentum has continued: on May 24, TSA officers screened nearly three million passengers, a record figure.

Still, the overall decline in actual airfare prices over the last two years suggests passenger demand "seems to have subsided" a bit, Kerry Tan, a professor of economics at Loyola University Maryland, told BI via email. He said this suggests demand could be normalizing and that some Americans balked at 2022's uptick in flight prices — even though tickets remained more affordable than pre-pandemic levels when adjusted for inflation.

Going forward, airlines will continue to be impacted by Americans' perception of flight prices. To the extent this perception influences Americans' broader feelings about inflation and the economy, it could play a role in the presidential election this fall.

Business Insider spoke with airline industry experts to learn why inflation-adjusted airfares have fallen over the past two decades — and why some Americans don't seem to have noticed.

Why flights have become more affordable

Airline industry experts told BI that one of the biggest factors driving down inflation-adjusted airfares is the rise of lower-cost, budget airlines.

In 2000, United, American, and Delta flights accounted for 73% of US domestic passengers, according to an analysis of Department of Transportation data by the trade association Airlines for America. By 2023, their share of passengers had fallen to 52% as lower-cost airlines like Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit, and Frontier emerged.

This development led to cheaper airfares through what airline insiders call the "Southwest Effect."

"When researchers have studied airfare, they've found that when a low-cost carrier like Southwest or Spirit begins flying a new route, fares fall an average of 20% on all airlines operating that route," Keyes said. "That's because price is by far the most important factor for leisure travelers' purchase decision, and so competition from new airlines — especially low-cost carriers — drives down fares across the board."

Keyes said another factor that has pushed down fares is "more and larger airplanes."

In addition to having more planes in their fleets than they used to, airlines have retired smaller planes in recent decades and replaced them with larger aircraft. In 2005, 11% of commercial airplanes had at least 151 seats — compared to 48% as of 2023.

"Larger planes, better fuel efficiency, and more seats are lowering the overall flight costs for airlines, and those savings are being passed onto travelers," Keyes said.

Despite the competition of cheaper airlines — and the lower inflation-adjusted fares they helped bring about — airlines like United, American, and Delta haven't suffered for it financially.

"The decline in inflation-adjusted airfares appears to be uncorrelated with the financial performance of the 'big three' airlines," Tan said.

Keyes said the years between 2015 and 2019 were "among the most profitable ever" for US airlines. He said declining inflation-adjusted fares haven't hindered airline profits because their business models aren't as reliant on ticket revenue as they used to be.

"Today, airline revenue comes primarily from sources other than economy tickets," he said. "This includes premium cabin revenue, credit cards, business travel, ancillary fees, cargo, and other sources."

Why Americans don't feel like they're getting a deal on airfares

If airfare prices are more affordable than they used to be, there could be several explanations why Americans remain frustrated.

"Consumers may not always think about inflation-adjusted airfares, so their frustration could be due to the higher nominal level of prices," Tan said. "It could also be that travelers are more frustrated by their travel experience as there's been a slight increase in flight delays since the COVID-19 pandemic."

It's also possible that after airfare prices plummeted due to the pandemic, 2022's swift rise in airfares caught Americans off guard. In September 2022, airfares rose roughly 43% compared to the prior year, the highest rate on record.

Additionally, airfare isn't the only cost of flying — many passengers pay fees for things like extra baggage and seat assignments. These fees can be tacked on well into the booking process, something the Biden Administration is trying to crack down on. Fourty-four percent of Americans said they at least sometimes pay more for airfares than the initial price they were shown, according to a YouGov survey conducted last July. This year, United, American, and Delta have each raised their checked bag fees.

But while these fees may be costly to some customers, Keyes said they haven't done much to offset the decline in inflation-adjusted airfares. The Airlines for America analysis found that including fees for baggage and reservation changes, the average US roundtrip ticket was $406 in 2023. Since 2010, only 2020 and 2021 offered more affordable flights — much of which was due to the decline in demand tied to the pandemic.

It's also possible the rising prices of goods and services across the US economy have left Americans with less money to spend on airfares, which is what's making their plane tickets feel particularly expensive. Some people have stuck with their pandemic habit of booking flights only a few weeks in advance due to uncertainty surrounding their travel plans, Hayley Berg, Hopper's lead economist, told NerdWallet. She recommended booking at least one month in advance to get lower airfares.

For some Americans, plane tickets are among the most expensive purchases they make on a semi-regular basis, something that could make people particularly sensitive to price increases. For others, flying is something they rarely do — which could make them less likely to notice a decadeslong shift in inflation-adjuted prices.

Lastly, the unpredictable nature of airfare price swings could be frustrating for consumers, Keyes said. And when it comes to economic issues like travel costs, it's not uncommon for Americans to have negative feelings that don't jive with the data.

"Airfare is the single most confusing and volatile purchase we regularly make," he said. "Combine that with negativity bias and it's no surprise that even as airfare hits historic lows, people are more likely to think it's at historic highs."

Have you found a creative way to save money on travel or flights? Are you willing to share your story? If so, reach out to this reporter at jzinkula@businessinsider.com.

Apple hosts multiple events every year, including the company's Worldwide Developers Conference. These events are usually where new Apple products are announced, as well as product updates and keynote addresses from company leadership.

Apple's WWDC24 event will be held at Apple's headquarters — known as Apple Park — in Cupertino, California, on June 10, at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET. The event is invite-only, and those who wish to attend must apply directly to Apple well in advance.

The 2024 event is expected to unveil a major operating system upgrade with iOS 18, and most likely some new AI features.

Invitation applications are already closed for WWDC24, but you can still watch the keynote. Apple livestreams it on its website, YouTube channel, the Apple Developer app, and the Apple TV app. 

Here's a timeline of some of Apple's most iconic events:

1983: Lisa debuts

The first WWDC was held in 1983. At the time, it was called the Apple Independent Software Developers Conference. Attendees got a glimpse of the first personal desktop computer with a graphics interface, called Lisa, named for co-founder Steve Jobs' daughter.

1984: The Mac debut

Apple debuted the Macintosh computer at an event in 1984. The Mac featured a graphical user interface, known as GUI, and a navigational mouse.

1997: Jobs returns

When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, he walked on stage during a keynote to a roaring applause. He co-founded the company two decades earlier but was fired by the company's board in 1985. His return spurred a turnaround for Apple, which was facing bankruptcy at the time.

1998: First iMac introduced

Apple's introduction of the first iMac in 1998 was a hit with event attendees. With its colorful design and user-friendliness, the iMac was the first computer that "seemed cool and wasn't focused on the enterprise."

1999: Wi-Fi demo

At a 1999 event, Jobs made a show of demonstrating the iBook's Wi-Fi capabilities. He picked up the laptop and walked around while browsing the web.

2011: iPod revealed

During a 2001 intimate event, Apple CEO Jobs revealed the iPod. The pocket-sized product moved people away from CD players to MP3 players, and then to the music streaming that's ubiquitous today.

2007: Going 'ballistic' for the iPhone

When Jobs unveiled the iPhone in 2007 and described it as "an iPod, a phone, and an internet communicator" in one device, conference attendees "went ballistic." The iPhone remains Apple's best-selling product.

2010: The unveiling of the iPad

Apple unveiled the iPad in 2010, and the audience at the keynote address was surprised to learn that it only cost $499, about half as much as many people expected.

Also, at an event that year, Jobs demonstrated FaceTime for the first time.

2011: Cook takeover

Tim Cook took over as Apple CEO in 2011, following Steve Jobs' death. At an event that year, Cook introduced the Apple Watch, a new product category for the company. Cook used Jobs' iconic catchphrase, "one more thing," during the announcement.

2016: AirPods debuted

Apple unveiled its wireless AirPods in 2016 after the company had announced plans to remove the headphone jack from its iPhones.

2023: Mixed-reality headset

At its 2023 WWDC in June, Cook revealed the Vision Pro, the company's first mixed-reality headset. It was Apple's first major product release since the Apple Watch. The headset was released in the US in early 2024 with a $3,499 price tag.

• India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his power pegged back in elections this week. 
• It was also the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in China. 
• It's a week that highlighted the contrasting political journeys of Asia's major powers. 

Narendra Modi's strongman ambitions suffered a setback this week.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party fell short of the landslide victory many had predicted in the Indian elections.

As Modi becomes India's prime minister for a third time, his party will have to enter into a power-sharing agreement with alliance partners.

It's a chastening lesson from the Indian electorate for Modi, who, while boosting India's global standing, has been accused of stoking division and weakening India's democracy.

On the same day as the Indian election results, the world marked the 35th anniversary of the June 4, 1989  Tiananmen Square massacre, which saw a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing.

In the decades since, China has slid back into Maoist-style authoritarianism.

The events this week highlighted how the competition between India and China is about more than raw power. It's also a competition between two very different political ideologies.

India is a flawed but thriving democracy

India is the world's largest democracy. Its first elections were held in 1951-52 after it gained independence from Britain. Free elections have been held in nearly every election cycle since, with a coup in 1975 briefly threatening India's democratic status.

It is a rare bright spot in a world where democracy seems to be in retreat. Even in the US, the global champion of democracy, former president Donald Trump is accused of launching an attempt to cling to power illegally after losing the 2020 election.

"India isn't a perfect democracy but it is still a role model for developing nations, large or small. And given trends in some Western democracies, I would have to say that there are several things they, too, should be learning from India," said Jabin T. Jacob, an expert on India-China relations at Shiv Nadar University, India.

India's democracy, though, faces a stern test under Modi, say critics. Global democracy watchdog Freedom House in 2021 downgraded India's democratic status, saying Modi's Hindu nationalist movement had menaced journalists, attacked Muslims, and corroded civil liberties.

Jacob said this week's results showed India's democracy remained resilient despite the pressures, while dealing a blow to a leader seen to have overstepped his authority.

"We have just seen an election in which the Indian electorate decided that their interests are best served by power shared more evenly among a set of political formations that represent diverse interests and aspirations. That is the essence of democracy," he said.

"The Indian electorate is a very mature one, and it has always intervened in a timely fashion against authoritarian tendencies in its rulers."

It's unclear whether Modi will now double down on the nationalism he's championed or seek a more moderate path based on economic reform.

China's rise comes at a high cost

There are those in India, though, who have been astonished at the speed and efficiency of China's rise to economic superpower status.

China has become the world's second-largest economy, and the lives of millions of ordinary Chinese people have been transformed. Though India has made huge economic progress under Modi, it still lags behind.

"Perhaps the greatest challenge democracy faces in India is that is has failed to deliver the kind of sustained economic development enjoyed by neighbors like China over the last four decades. It has also failed to eliminate extreme poverty," wrote Chatham House analyst Gareth Price in 2022.

But with prosperity in China, has come reduced freedom.

Since Tiananmen Square 35 years ago, China's Communist Party has rolled back many of the freedoms its citizens once had.

Its current leader, Xi Jinping, has imposed a draconian surveillance state and is considered China's most authoritarian ruler since Mao Tse Tung.

Dominic Chiu, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider that China's system had given it an economic advantage — but at a cost.

"China's one-party rule in the reform era enabled consistent long-term policymaking and economic planning," he said. "This benefited China's economy immensely when the leadership decided to liberalize markets, privatize industries, and open the country up to foreign investment." 

But, he said, China's repressive one-party system was also deterring investors. And with China's economy experiencing a steep downturn, this poses a serious problem for its future growth.

China and India vie for dominance

Having achieved economic superpower status, China is now seeking to assert its power more aggressively both regionally and internationally.

Tensions with India are increasing. In 2020, clashes along the countries' Himalayan border resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese.

Analysts told BI that building stronger alliances to counter Chinese aggression will be one of the core aims of Modi's third term.

And its commitment to democracy hands it an important advantage, said Jacob.

"India's democratic status is critical for its international standing. It is an opportunity to develop a model of economic and political development that is both equitable and democratic and thus distinct from the aggressive capitalism of the US or the authoritarianism of the PRC," he said.

In 2021, India entered into the "Quad" partnership with democracies the US, Japan, and Australia, to counter what is perceived as growing Chinese aggression in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

It's a political alliance that would've been more difficult to broker if India was ruled by an authoritarian government, say observers.

Competing nationalist visions

Some analysts, though, say that the competition between India and China is not, at its core, about competing political systems but about competing nationalist visions.

According to this interpretation, both Xi and Modi are committed to restoring what they see as their nation's rightful place at the top of the global order.

But in his quest to strengthen India, critics are warning Modi not to undermine the commitment to democracy and pluralism they believe is at the heart of its post-independence success.

Jacob said those in India jealous of China's economic might should look more closely at the reality.

"Indians who argue against democracy using the China comparison clearly don't understand anything about the reality of China and the Chinese people," he said.

• Indian stocks plummeted this week after Narendra Modi won fewer seats than expected.
• Left-wing Claudia Sheinbaum's crushing victory in Mexico also spooked investors.
• It's a reminder that elections could fuel volatility in equity markets this year, analysts say.

It's the year of elections around the world — and 2024 served up its first major stock-market surprises this week, as the results of votes in Asia and the Americas spooked investors.

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi's narrow victory sent Mumbai-listed stocks plummeting, while Mexican equities slumped in the wake of Claudia Sheinbaum's crushing victory.

2024 is set to be the biggest election year ever, with more than half the world's population set to go to the polls in 50 countries — including the looming rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Analysts say that the surprise results in India and Mexico are a reminder of the potential market volatility to come.

Modi's narrow win sparks a sell-off

Modi will remain prime minister after his Bharatiya Janata Party and allies secured a majority in India's lower house of parliament — but his slimmer-than-expected margin of victory disappointed investors.

India's flagship Nifty 50 index had its worst day since the start of the pandemic, tumbling nearly 6%, while the rupee slipped against the US dollar and 10-year government bond yields edged up. The stock market erased those losses later in the week to close higher on Friday, however.

Modi's social policies, often aligned with right-wing Hindu nationalism, have proved controversial during his decade-long tenure as prime minister.

But his economic approach has boosted India's economy, drawn in huge amounts of foreign investment, and won the approval of big Wall Street names such as Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk, and Tim Cook. 

Analysts said that the sharp sell-off in stocks and the rupee reflected investors' concerns that Modi's narrower-than-expected majority will make it much tougher to pass his pro-growth, pro-business reforms.

Russ Mould of UK-based broker AJ Bell wrote in a research note: "The fear will be that if he has to rely on alliances with smaller parties, any market-friendly policies will be diluted."

Sheinbaum's landslide triggers Wall Street freak-out

Half the world away, Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum is celebrating a much more resounding victory.

The leader of the left-wing Morena party won more than 60% of the votes in Sunday's general election, meaning she's set to become the country's first female president. However, her triumph triggered a stock-market slump.

According to Reuters data, Mexico's main stock-market index dropped 6% on Monday as investors reacted to Sheinbaum's win, while the peso tumbled 4% against the dollar.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Mexican equities, with strategists saying that the "unprecedented" scale of Sheinbaum's win had put the bank in "wait-and-see mode."

Sheinbaum has promised to press ahead with government spending projects despite worries about Mexico's high fiscal deficit, which the World Bank expects to hit 5.4% of GDP by the end of 2024.

"We saw a big drop in the Mexican stock market," Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB UK, told Business Insider. "There's fear now — because Sheinbaum did win a supermajority that means she could meddle with the economy, and that's really freaking out investors."

All eyes on November

The European Parliament is holding elections this week, while the UK will go to the polls in early July. And in November, Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Trump are set to face off in a contest that oddsmakers are pricing as a coin toss.

Investing gurus have long flagged the US election as a potential source of uncertainty — and the dramatic stock price swings in India and Mexico should be a reminder that there's more volatility to come, according to analysts.

"It's often said that markets don't like uncertainty and with around half of the world's population going to the polls this year the only sure bet is that, in the short term, uncertainty is here to stay," said Danni Hewson of AJ Bell.

"Watching the market reaction to India's election, which didn't quite deliver the result most people had been expecting, provides an insight into the volatility that could be in store as election fever migrates to the UK and then across the Atlantic to the US."

This week's results were a warning, XTB's Brooks told BI. "It's just generated so much volatility … it's a reminder of all the election risk coming up in the second half of this year."

• Donald Trump awaits sentencing, and faces a potential term of zero to four years behind bars.
• Four former NYC judges predict he'll avoid state prison, though one calls "city time" a possibility.
• Probation, community service, and fines are likely alternatives to incarceration for Trump.

The pundits are pondering: what will happen when Donald Trump is sentenced?

Will New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan treat Trump like any other older first offender with non-violent, low-level felonies, and give him a no-jail sentence — an option that moots Secret Service security concerns and blunts further cries of "election interference?"

Or will Merchan factor in all the extra stuff — Trump's courtroom outbursts, his 10 gag violations, his civil judgments for sex assault and billion-dollar fraud, his targeting of the judge's own daughter — and sentence him to less than a year in Rikers or more than a year in state prison?

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has not revealed what he'll ask for on July 11, when Trump is scheduled to be sentenced to anywhere from zero to 4 years for each of 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Bragg has yet to even tell his own prosecutors, the ones who tried and won the hush-money case, what sentence he'll ask for, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Merchan, of course, won't tip his hand until the sentencing itself.

From the judges' mouths

So, Business Insider did the next best thing.

We side-stepped the pundit industrial complex and its army of former prosecutors and think-tankers. We instead asked a few of Merchan's former colleagues on New York City's criminal trial bench, the closest thing to the horse's — or judge's — mouth.

Will Merchan sentence Donald Trump to jail? To prison? What would they have done as judges had Trump's case been theirs?

Four former New York City judges, all reputed to be as tough or tougher than Merchan, shared their answers.

All four said a prison sentence — AKA "state time," meaning a sentence of more than one year in an upstate New York prison — is inappropriate.

Merchan will not sentence Trump to prison, the four agreed.

"He's certainly not going to give him state time — state time is really a lot," said Michael Obus, who was Merchan's supervising judge in Manhattan from 2009 to 2017.

"The prosecution has gotten its pound of flesh just by getting its conviction," agreed Barry Kamins, a former Brooklyn-based state supreme court justice and ex-administrative judge for the city criminal courts.

"We all know who Trump is and what he does," said Charles Solomon, a Manhattan-based state supreme court justice for 33 years before his retirement in 2017.

"But you don't want to give him such a draconian sentence that he becomes a martyr," Solomon said.

"Trump would be re-elected in a landslide if they put him for one day in jail," he added. "Plus, this guy doesn't belong in jail for what he did. Let's face it, enough is enough already."

What about Rikers?

Three out of the four former judges who spoke to BI go even further, predicting that Merchan won't give Trump a jail sentence either, meaning no "city time" — a term of less than one year in New York's notorious Rikers Island.

Merchan could theoretically sentence Trump to as little as a single day in Rikers, said Kamins, now in private practice at Aidala, Bertuna & Kamins.

A 30-day sentence, to be served at Rikers on 15 consecutive weekends, is a more reasonable low-jail option in Merchan's toolbox, noted Solomon.

But Trump shouldn't expect even this sort of short, symbolic jail sentence, said Kamins, Solomon, and a third former Manhattan judge who asked not to be named due to an ongoing connection to the courts.

"This is not a case where jail should even be considered," said that former judge, one of the few Republicans on the Manhattan bench in recent decades.

In sentencing, both aggravating and mitigating factors are weighed, this judge noted.

"You have to consider the impact that a sentence will have on others," the former judge said.

"And in this case that means the impact the sentence will have on the entire nation. A national election is hanging in the balance," where any time spent in jail keeps Trump off the campaign trail, the former judge said.

"If this gets reversed" on appeal, they added, "the damage will already be done, and this judge cannot be oblivious to that."

Appeals would delay jail for years

Only one judge — Obus, the former Manhattan administrative judge — declined to rule out jail altogether, calling it a possibility, though a slight one.

What might tip the scales in favor of jail? Trump's motive.

Prosecutors can be expected to argue at sentencing, as they did in opening statements and closing arguments, that Trump falsified business records as part of a 2016 election-interference scheme with the National Enquirer.

The supermarket tabloid ran fake stories attacking Trump's political opponents — including one doozy that accused Ted Cruz of keeping "five mistresses" — while buying and burying salacious stories that hurt Trump, trial evidence showed.

"This scheme, cooked up by these men at this time, could very well be what got President Trump elected," prosecutor Joshua Steinglass told jurors in closing arguments.

Merchan will weigh this attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election during sentencing, Obus noted.

"One possibility is some kind of split sentence, say, six months of jail with a concurrent sentence of five years probation," said Obus, a member of the new statewide commission on prosecutorial conduct.

But even in the unlikely event of a low-jail sentence, Trump's appeals would keep him at liberty for years, all four judges said.

"I've kept a client out as long as six years, pursuing appeals," said veteran Manhattan defense lawyer Ron Kuby.

"No one is going to incarcerate a former president of the United States until his appeals are exhausted," said Kuby.

"You cannot plausibly argue that Donald Trump is a risk of flight," Kuby added. "Now, you may wish that he flee," he joked. "But he is not a flight risk."

Merchan has the power to immediately stay any incarceratory sentence himself, Obus noted.

Probation, community service, and a fine are far more likely

Short of jail, Trump can be fined up to $5,000 for each of the 34 records-falsification counts he was found guilty of, Obus said.

Merchan can also order community service, to be monitored by the judge himself or through the city probation department.

"If you're older or handicapped, they won't send you out into the parks to pick up garbage," Solomon said. "They'll have you licking envelopes somewhere," he said.

"Maybe in Trump's case, they'll have him lecture somewhere about how you should not commit crimes," he added. "He could go to Harvard Business School and lecture about the importance of not falsifying business records."

A term of three or five years probation would not be surprising, the former judges said.

"It's basically nothing," Solomon said. "You have to meet with your probation officer initially, and then you have to go to a kiosk every now and then, and log in, to make sure you're OK and still around."

Trump can easily have his probation transferred to Florida — or Washington, DC. — the judges also noted.

"If you go by the statistics for people sentenced for this kind of crime, the most common sentence is probation," said Kamins.

"Judge Merchan, we know, takes white-collar crime very seriously, and he may choose probation — which is the most serious non-jail punishment — only because of his feelings on white-collar crime," Kamins added.

Merchan should say less, not more

It's a historic moment, the first sentencing of a former president. But given what will be an aggressively-fought appeal, Merchan may want to keep his comments brief, and focused on the conviction alone, the former judges said.

Merchan has already punished Trump's ten acts of contempt of court — his gag order violations — by imposing a total $10,000 in fines. Dwelling on these violations as he explains his sentence to Trump could give the defense a basis for challenging the punishment as vindictive and repetitive, the former judges said.

But Trump's history of civil fraud and sex-abuse judgments is fair game for Merchan to mention at sentencing, they said.

Rehashing Trump's spoken and online attacks on the judge, the judge's family, and the criminal justice system is also fair game.

"He looks like an angel, but he's really a devil," Trump said of Merchan during a press conference just one day after his verdict.

But less is more, the former judges said, especially if Merchan wants to limit Trump's ability to appeal the sentence by claiming it was based on the judge's personal and political animus.

"You can go down the list, as a judge, and say he doesn't pay the people he hires, he doesn't do this, he doesn't do that," Solomon said of Merchan's sentencing statement.

"But if you start making a list of how bad he is, and then you give him a light sentence, you look like an idiot," he said.

"Most of the time, the less you say the better," Solomon added. "You speak a couple of sentences. You say, 'I have weighed the facts of the case, and I think the appropriate sentence under the law is as follows.'"

Ultimately, the judges said, Merchan will give it a good deal of thought, and then do what he sees is best.

"I certainly don't know what the right decision is, or what Judge Merchan will do," Obus told BI.

"I just know that he is thoughtful, and wise, and fair. And I'm sure he'll consider the appropriate factors and whatever he does will be the right decision," he said.

"That's how I'm going to find out what the right decision is," he added with a laugh.

• My son could identify the lifecycle of an insect but not denominations of money. 
• Allowing for real life learning has changed how he handles money.
• By starting financial education early, my hope is to set him up for future financial success.

"Momma, look what we did in school today," exclaimed my 5-year-old as he pulled out a worksheet dedicated to the life cycle of a butterfly.

As he explained how a caterpillar formed a chrysalis and then metamorphosed into a butterfly, I had to admit I was impressed.

Behind him, on the kitchen counter, sat a handful of change. Something compelled me to see if he knew the names of the coins.

Holding out a nickel, I asked what it was. He replied, "Money."

Rephrasing my question, I asked what the name of the coin was. He guessed a penny.

While he was learning a wide range of topics in school, money was not one of them. This was a wake-up call to my husband and me to teach him financial literacy at home.

If he can understand the concepts of a chrysalis and metamorphosis, he can learn about money. Since then, we've implemented strategies to help him learn about finances in ways that make sense for our family.

We use real money when shopping

My son likes to play store by setting up a cash register and "selling" items from his room. He used to play with pretend coins, but now we use real money, which allows him to practice counting money, giving change, and understanding how coins and dollars interact.

Going into stores used to be like running through a gauntlet of temptation. Like many children, he'd see something he wanted and immediately ask for it. Thinking I was helping him learn the concept of cost, I would have him read me the price of the item he wanted. He obliged and then asked me to buy it. What was missing was the correlation between the numbers listed and what that meant in the actual currency of money.

Having him bring his money to the store allows him to understand the value of a previously abstract number. When he does make a purchase, he is responsible for completing the transaction rather than us adding it to our tab and paying us back. We want him to have the experience of physically handing over the money rather than just swiping a card.

He still makes poor choices sometimes

As all parents know, using logical reasoning with young children doesn't always yield the results you hope for. After a trying experience at a store where I explained why buying a particular plastic toy wasn't a good idea, I decided to let him learn for himself with his money.

Unsurprisingly, the toy broke within a day. After initially feeling upset, he stated what a waste it was. Now, he is much more deliberate with his purchases if he's spending his money. We're working on him having the same intentionality with ours.

We explained how compound interest works

My son receives money from family members for each birthday and Christmas. Until last year, we put it directly into his investment account. As he gets older, we want him to understand what happens to his money when it is invested.

Using dollar bills and coins, we showed how money makes more money without him having to do any work. He asked how much money would be in his account if he put $10 in it every birthday until he was "old" like me. When I answered hundreds of dollars, his eyes widened in disbelief. He has been aboard the investing train ever since.

If children can start reading in kindergarten, let's trust they can also learn about financial literacy. It will pay dividends.

• Chinese automakers are deploying humanoid robots in their factories. 
• Tesla rival Dongfeng will use a robot created by Chinese firm Ubtech to assemble car parts and perform quality checks.
• Ubtech's "Walker S" robot rivals Optimus, which Elon Musk says could transform the global economy. 

Elon Musk can't stop talking about Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot— and now his Chinese rivals are turning to equivalent robots as they seek to challenge their US rival.

Car giant Dongfeng Motors appears to be the latest Chinese automaker to explore deploying human-like robots on its production lines after striking a deal with Chinese robotics firm Ubtech Robotics.

An Ubtech spokesperson told Business Insider that the robotic worker, "Walker S," would help liberate human laborers from repetitive tasks on the factory floor.

The deal between Ubtech and Dongfeng subsidiary Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor will see Walker S robots used to inspect seat belts and door locks, perform quality checks, and assemble car axles, they said.

Dongfeng, which produces electric vehicles through its Voyah unit, is the second Chinese car company to have confirmed its using Ubtech's robots to help build its cars.

Robot Revolution

EV maker and Tesla rival Nio has also piloted the use of Ubtech's technology, with the Walker S working as an "intern" assisting with car production.

A video posted on Ubtech's YouTube channel shows the Walker S performing quality checks, testing seat belts, and installing a car's emblem.

A Nio spokesperson confirmed to BI that the company was actively exploring using humanoid robots in the general assembly workshop at its factory in Hefei, China.

Ubtech says the Walker S, which stands 1.7 meters tall and is powered by AI technology from Chinese tech giant Baidu, can perceive its environment in real time and recognize complex objects.

The robotics firm also advertises several other humanoid robots on its website — including a panda-themed robot and the Walker X, which it says is being used at Neom, Saudi Arabia's futuristic desert city.

Optimus competition

Chinese firms are not the only ones experimenting with robotics. Elon Musk has been working on a humanoid robot — known as Optimus — for years.

The Tesla CEO has been extremely bullish on Optimus, which has appeared in videos showing it folding a shirt, picking up an egg, and doing yoga stretches.

In a recent Tesla earnings call, Musk said the AI android had the potential to transform the global economy. He added that Tesla planned to have Optimus "in limited production" doing tasks within factories by the end of the year and wanted to sell it externally by the end of 2025.

Dongfeng did not immediately respond to requests for comment made outside normal working hours.

• Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a solid-fuel missile, the "Palestine," at Eilat, Israel, AP reported.
• The missile resembles Iran's Fattah missile that can reach hypersonic speeds.
• The Houthis claim the missile is "locally made," per the AP, though defense experts are doubtful.

Houthi rebels in Yemen said they had fired a new solid-fuel missile called the "Palestine" at the southern Israeli city of Eilat on Monday.

The missile is believed to be able to fly at hypersonic speeds and resembles one unveiled by Iran earlier this year, the Associated Press reported.

The attack did not result in any damage or injuries, per AP.

Footage released Wednesday appeared to show a missile, which Houthis claimed to be the Palestine, with a warhead painted in the style of the Palestinian keffiyeh scarf, being raised to firing position and then launched.

Pro-Palestinian supporters around the world have taken to wearing the chequered keffiyeh as a sign of solidarity with the embattled people of Gaza. The enclave has been subjected to an eight-month military campaign by Israel that has killed over 36,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health authorities. It was triggered by the October 7 terrorist attacks in southern Israel by Hamas that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

Most Houthi attacks have been targeting ships in the Red Sea corridor with missiles and drones as part of a campaign that aims to put pressure on Israel and the West over the war in Gaza. Strikes by the US and UK have raised the stakes in recent months.

Israel's port city of Eilat sits on the Gulf of Aqaba, whose waters connect to the Red Sea, has been targeted 53 times since October 7, according to according to the US Congressional Research Service, per The Jerusalem Post.

According to the Arms Control Association, a Washington DC-based think tank, solid-fuel missiles "require less maintenance and preparation time" than liquid-fuel missiles because "solid-propellants have the fuel and oxidizer together, whereas liquid-fueled missiles must keep the two separated until right before deployment."

The Houthis claim the missile is "locally made," per the AP, though they are unlikely to be able to construct this level of advanced weapon, defense experts say.

Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote on X that the Palestine missile reassembled the Iranian-developed Fattah 1 and the Kheybarshekan 2, both solid-fuel missiles.

Iran unveiled the Fattah last year. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed the missile could achieve speeds of Mach 15 – 15 times the speed of sound—and had a range of 870 miles.

Missiles that travel more than five times the speed of sound are considered "hypersonic." According to a UK government research briefing, hypersonic missiles' speed, maneuverability, and altitude "may challenge existing missile defenses."

"So far, the ballistic missiles used by the Houthis against Israel appear to all have been less advanced liquid propellant missiles without terminal guidance," Hinz wrote on X.

"While we cannot say for sure what exact version the 'Palestine' corresponds to, we can say with high certainty that it is an advanced and precision-guided IRGC-developed solid propellant missile provided by Iran," the expert said.

• Uber and Lyft drivers often struggle with low or infrequent tips, which many rely on to pay bills.
• Ride-hailing drivers earn below minimum wage in major cities, even with tips, UC Berkeley found.
• Delivery drivers often receive higher or more frequent tips, partly due to American tipping customs.

Chris Yandell, a 35-year-old full-time Uber driver in Oklahoma City, has mixed feelings about his passengers.

He loves interacting with people, he told Business Insider, but it's "a real struggle to pay rent" with his ride-hailing income, and he said few passengers tip. He considers ride-hailing drivers similar to restaurant servers, as both provide a service, but he said many passengers don't see it this way.

"Riders more often than not leave my car in a better mood than when they got in — they do say thank you with a smile on their face and give a 5-star rating," he said. "However, they very rarely leave a tip."

Data suggests drivers for ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft get tips much less frequently than delivery drivers. According to an analysis of over 500,000 US gig drivers provided to BI by Gridwise, a data-analytics company that helps drivers track their earnings, roughly 28% of Uber and Lyft ride-hailing trips get tips, compared to 87% of food-delivery trips and 74% of grocery trips. The analysis was based on US tipping data between January 1 and June 6.

As the pay model for gig driving shifts, poor tipping is one of the main driver frustrations with Uber and Lyft. Some drivers are questioning whether the gig is worth it. After all, many earn below the local minimum wage — and they could be earning more tips by switching to food delivery. Drivers' frustrations have led some to quit their gigs — and others to push for higher guaranteed pay.

Some drivers told BI they increasingly rely on tips, especially when some drivers are growingly reporting rides at or below $3.

Business Insider asked gig economy experts and drivers why food delivery drivers get more generous tips than ride-hailing drivers, what's preventing some people from tipping, and what Uber and Lyft could do to boost customer tips.

Historical tipping norms, inflation, and high ride prices can influence tips

Carla Bevins, an associate professor of business management at Carnegie Mellon University, thinks food delivery drivers are more likely to get tips than ride-hailing drivers because tipping for food-related services has "long been a part of American culture."

"In contrast, rideshare services, though equally valuable, do not have the same historical tipping expectation and are often viewed as more transactional," she told BI via email. For both ride-hailing and food delivery, she said the digital tipping process via phone reduces the social pressure to tip.

Some ride-hailing drivers said they noticed tipping declining throughout the pandemic. Some said inflation may have eaten away at many passengers' wallets, making them less likely to tip, while others said people's appreciation of essential workers through generous tipping has withered away.

Others blamed the companies, noting that passengers may be less likely to leave an additional tip as ride prices increase.

Deborah, who takes multiple Uber or Lyft rides a day, said as fares increase, it's more challenging to dig into her pockets and give generous tips — though she still tips on every ride.

"Some of us are everyday workers and employees living from paycheck to paycheck. We have families and children to feed as well," Deborah said.

Still, the major ride-hailing and food delivery companies argue that tipping is robust and on the rise.

In a statement, Uber told BI that over the last four years, ride-hailing tipping frequency and the average tip size have both roughly doubled — adding that the average ride-hailing tip amount rose nearly 10% over the past six months. For food delivery orders, the average tip amount increased roughly 35% over the past six months, the company said.

Uber said this is because of changes to the app that encourage tipping. This includes allowing passengers to tip during the trip and moving the tip selection prompt above the ratings prompt. For Uber Eats, suggested tip amounts vary based on order size, and customers are reminded of inclement weather to encourage tipping.

In the second half of 2023, Lyft said the median US Lyft driver earned about $31 per hour of engaged time — when they were en route to pick up a passenger or had one in their vehicle. The company said these earnings included a median tip of $2.41 per engaged hour.

A Lyft analysis of passenger tipping published last July found that airport pickups and dropoffs "resulted in twice as many tips as non-airport trips."

DoorDash said 80% of Dashers have other income sources, and 90% spend under 10 hours weekly on delivery. Still, DoorDash said it's encouraging tips through in-app notifications for customers, warning them that their food may take longer to arrive if they refuse to tip. The vast majority of customers tip, DoorDash said, adding that the notification pilot resulted in significantly fewer $0 tips.

"Dashers go above and beyond everyday for their communities, which is why we've made it easier than ever for customers to show their appreciation by leaving a tip at checkout, during delivery, or up to 30 days after delivery — all directly in the DoorDash app," a DoorDash spokesperson told BI.

Uber and Lyft drivers rarely get tips

Steve, who asked to use a pseudonym for fear of professional repercussions, has driven for over five years in Los Angeles and said he's been increasingly reliant on tips. Some days, he waits one or two hours before getting a ride going his direction, so he said tips are helpful to make up for dead periods.

However, tips are few and far between, even when he offers good service and helps passengers with luggage. He suspects one of the reasons for low tipping rates is that years ago, Uber did not encourage tips.

When Uber first started, there was no tipping option. In 2016, Uber's public policy team noted, "we felt it would be better for riders and drivers to know for sure what they would pay or earn on each trip — without the uncertainty of tipping." Uber further wrote tipping was "not included, nor is it expected or required."

Though Uber has added in-app tipping and provided a simpler tipping interface, Steve said many people may still be conditioned to not tip ride-hailing drivers. He added the lack of tips has been "demoralizing," leading him to reject more rides and consider pivoting to another industry.

Erskien Lenier, 66, is about to quit driving for Uber and Lyft and pivot to freelance diet and fitness coaching. The Riverside, California-based driver started almost nine years ago after working long hours in the car industry. While he could make $2,000 to $3,00 a week pre-pandemic, he now struggles to make above $900 a week working similar hours.

He said he's recently received more tips than ever before, sometimes $50 to $60 a day, from starting engaging conversations with passengers about his passions for health and fitness. He said he has more control over receiving tips with Uber X than Uber Eats, where he doesn't interface with the customer.

"I try to set myself with the mindset of I'm out here to have a good time, make some money, make some friends, and get home safe," Lenier said.

However, his tip amounts have fallen with his earnings, and it's not sustainable, especially as he gets older. So far this week, he's made $567.17, only $30.68 of which came from tips.

Tipping isn't so smooth for delivery drivers, either

Alex, a DoorDash driver in Texas, said he only takes orders that will give decent tips. Sometimes, this means refusing to complete a delivery if he predicts he'll get a bad review, which could hurt tips. In the last 30 days, he said his acceptance rate fluctuated between 20% and 30% while maintaining a 4.9 customer rating and 98% completion rate.

He estimates two-thirds of his income comes from tipping, noting that he would not be able to survive on base pay alone. While he gets tips on most rides, he said he's dealt with tip baiting — when people take their tips away after he accepts the orders. He's also seen more $1 tips after DoorDash implemented its notification pilot.

It's taken him a few months to figure out the best strategies for maximizing tips, such as driving later at night when there's less competition and traffic.

How Uber and Lyft can influence driver tips

Erin Hatton, a professor of sociology at the University of Buffalo, told BI via email that ride-hailing companies can "strongly influence tipping practices by setting standard tipping amounts in the app for customers to choose from."

Price hikes can also discourage tipping.

"During surge pricing on Uber, for example, a customer could think twice about adding a tip on top of an already increased fare," Carnegie Mellon's Bevins said.

Bevins said that the perception of gig driver pay, driven by various factors such as media coverage, could impact how much people tip. The more people think they're reliant on tips, the more generous they might be likely to be. She said Uber and Lyft can do more to raise awareness about the impact tips can have on drivers through educational campaigns.

Other recommendations included reminding passengers during checkout that "100% of your tip goes to your driver" and reminding customers to tip immediately after the ride.

For some gig drivers, there's a lot at stake over the future of tipping.

"As for any tipped employee — but particularly those who are not guaranteed a minimum wage, let alone a living wage — tips are a crucial source of income," Hatton said.

Are you a gig driver who is struggling to make ends meet? Reach out to these reporters at nsheidlower@businessinsider.com or jzinkula@businessinsider.com.