Category: Stock Market

  • Why this broker just upgraded Flight Centre shares to a buy rating

    Kid with arm spread out on a luggage bag, riding a skateboard.

    Kid with arm spread out on a luggage bag, riding a skateboard.

    Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares could be great value right now.

    That’s the view of analysts at Morgans, which have just upgraded the travel agent giant’s shares following the release of its quarterly update.

    Flight Centre share price tipped to soar

    According to the note, the broker has upgraded Flight Centre’s shares to an add rating with a significantly improved price target of $26.25.

    Based on the current Flight Centre share price of $21.05, this implies potential upside of 25% for investors over the next 12 months.

    In addition, the broker is expecting the company to be in a position to resume paying dividends in FY 2024. It has pencilled in a 50 cents per share dividend that year, followed by an 88 cents per share dividend in FY 2025.

    This will mean dividend yields of 2.4% and 4.2%, respectively, for investors in those financial years.

    Why is Morgans bullish?

    There were a couple of reason why Morgans has upgraded its rating and valuation of the Flight Centre share price.

    One was the strong trading update it released which has led to the broker lifting its earnings estimates through to FY 2025. The other is a change in its valuation model to a sum of the parts (SOTP) methodology, which it feels is now a more appropriate way to value its shares. Morgans explained:

    Given FLT’s stronger FY23 EBITDA guidance and it bringing forward its FY25 margin target, we have upgraded our EBITDA forecasts by 2.8%/4.3%14.2% in FY23/24/25. Our new FY25 EBITDA forecast of A$295.5m is slightly ahead of the top end of FLT’s guidance range as we think it will prove to be conservative and wouldn’t be surprised if it was upgraded following its key trading period.

    Given the company’s operating and financial leverage, the upgrades at the NPAT level are greater. Our forecasts are now well ahead of consensus estimates. To better account for FLT’s different business units and compare it to peers, we now value the company using a SOTP methodology. Our SOTP is A$26.26 per share.

    The post Why this broker just upgraded Flight Centre shares to a buy rating appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Flight Centre Travel Group Limited right now?

    Before you consider Flight Centre Travel Group Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Flight Centre Travel Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Here’s how I’d aim for $200 a month in passive income using ASX 200 bank shares

    Woman holding out $20 dollar Australian notes, symbolising dividends.Woman holding out $20 dollar Australian notes, symbolising dividends.

    Investors hoping to earn some handy passive income on the side could take a look at ASX 200 bank shares.

    Two ASX 200 bank shares that could provide monthly passive income are Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB). In fact, these two have already announced interim dividends for FY23.

    ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is due to report its financial results today, while Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) is due to report next week.

    Let’s take a look at how I could receive $200 monthly income with Commonwealth Bank and NAB shares.

    Could I receive $200 monthly income from CBA and NAB?

    Firstly, it’s worth noting the calculations I am looking at reflect dividend payments announced in the last year. Of course, the dividends for these ASX 200 bank shares could change in the future.

    Secondly, a $200 monthly income equates to $2,400 in annual income.

    Taking a look at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the biggest of the big four paid an interim dividend of $2.10 in the first half of this year. This followed a $2.10 final dividend in the second half of 2022.

    This equates to $4.20 in dividend payments from the CBA overall in the year.

    The bank’s share price dropped 7% in the last year and last closed at $95.76.

    Based on CBA’s latest share price, this represents a trailing dividend yield of about 4.4%.

    Let’s now take a look at the NAB dividend. NAB yesterday announced an interim dividend to shareholders of 83 cents per share fully franked. This will be paid on 5 July 2023.

    NAB paid a 78 cents per share final dividend in the second half of last year.

    In total, this means NAB is paying $1.61 worth of dividends to investors in a year.

    National Australia Bank shares fell 6.41% on Thursday following the release of the company’s results and closed at $26.72 each. NAB shares have fallen nearly 18% in a year.

    However, based on Thursday’s closing price, NAB’s dividend yield is 6%.

    What would I need to invest to get $200 a month?

    If I invest the same amount in both NAB and CBA shares, my average dividend yield would be 5.2%.

    So, to generate $200 a month (or $2,400 a year) in passive income with a 5.2% average dividend yield, I would need to invest $46,153.85 in these two shares overall.

    Another approach would be to invest $3,846 a month for the next 12 months in these two ASX bank shares.

    The post Here’s how I’d aim for $200 a month in passive income using ASX 200 bank shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Looking to buy dividend shares to help fight inflation?

    If you’re looking to buy dividend shares to help fight inflation then you’ll need to get your hands on this… Our FREE report revealing 3 stocks not only boasting inflation-fighting dividends…

    They also have strong potential for massive long-term returns…

    See the 3 stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Keep the faith: 2 ASX shares to buy now at a temporary dip

    A female athlete in green spandex leaps from one cliff edge to another representing 3 ASX shares that are destined to rise and be greatA female athlete in green spandex leaps from one cliff edge to another representing 3 ASX shares that are destined to rise and be great

    Long-term buy-and-hold investing is straightforward in theory but in practice, it can be testing for even the most disciplined investors.

    That’s especially so in turbulent times for the market, such as the past 18 months.

    After all, it’s only human nature to feel disappointed when they see one of their ASX shares fall off a cliff in any given month.

    QVG analysts recently saw this happen to two stocks in their Long Short Fund, but explained why investors need to look past the calamity:

    Recent troubles don’t change ‘long-term outlook’

    The Imdex Limited (ASX: IMD) share price has plunged almost 10% since 30 March. It’s a 20% fall if you go back to 23 January.

    The QVG team attributed this to the fortunes of Imdex’s clientele.

    “It appears their clients (miners & drillers) have had a slow start to the year.”

    But with revenue, operating income, and cash holdings consistently growing, the analysts are backing Imdex shares to rise in the long run.

    “We don’t see [the current slowdown] as changing the long-term outlook for the business.”

    QVG is not the only one who thinks this.

    According to CMC Markets, seven out of eight analysts currently rate Imdex shares as a buy.

    The Motley Fool’s Mitchell Lawler last month rated the stock as his top pick, on the back of recent acquisitions.

    “I believe the addition of Devico sweetens the investment case for Imdex, adding a higher earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin business and cementing the company’s global position in the sensor and directional drilling tech markets.”

    Production hiccup is just temporary

    It’s been an ugly 2023 for Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), with its share price sinking 28% since 24 January.

    April was especially distressing for the mining service provider.

    “Mineral Resources… saw their share price decline 9% for the month as their lithium production expansion delivered less tonnes than expected and at a higher cost.”

    The recent drop in lithium prices isn’t helping either.

    And of course, the prospects of recession or an economic slowdown always hits the resources industry hard.

    QVG analysts are keeping the faith with a long-term horizon.

    “We believe the mining services volume dip and production ramp at Mt Marion are temporary in nature.”

    The team at Morgans is also a fan of Mineral Resources’ long-term prospects.

    Based on the Thursday trading price of $69.05, Morgans’ $103 price target implies an amazing upside of 49%. 

    “But it gets better!” reported The Motley Fool’s James Mickleboro.

    “The broker is also forecasting a $5.79 per share fully franked dividend in FY 2024. This represents a [sizable] 8% forward dividend yield for investors that buy shares at today’s price.”

    The post Keep the faith: 2 ASX shares to buy now at a temporary dip appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Our pullback stock hit list…

    Motley Fool Share Advisor has released a hit list of stocks that investors should be paying close attention to right now…

    As the market continues to sell off, we think some stocks have become extreme buying opportunities.

    In five years’ time, we think you’ll probably wish you’d bought these 4 ‘pullback’ stocks…

    See The 4 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Imdex. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Imdex. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • ‘Revenues up 59%’: 3 small-cap ASX shares rocketing right now (and set for more gains)

    three children wearing superhero costumes, complete with masks, pose with hands on hips wearing capes and sneakers on a running track.three children wearing superhero costumes, complete with masks, pose with hands on hips wearing capes and sneakers on a running track.

    Small-cap ASX shares were thoroughly demolished in the past 18 months, but there are now some green shoots showing up.

    In a memo to clients, the team at QVG Capital Long Short Fund named three such stocks that have rocketed in recent times, which it is still backing for further gains:

    ‘High energy, entrepreneurial culture’

    Mader Group Ltd (ASX: MAD) is an outsourcer for clients in the mining industry.

    On the back of its latest numbers, the stock has soared an eye-opening 37% year to date.

    “Their update showed revenues up 59% and was particularly pleasing given their March quarter is typically seasonally weak.”

    There are two reasons why the QVG analysts reckon Mader shares are set for further rises.

    “Firstly, their customer is paying a discount to what an OEM would charge and only a small premium to what it would cost to do it ‘in house’,” read the memo.

    “Considering the additional quality and flexibility this means good value for the customer.”

    The other tailwind is that, despite it now having a $1 billion market capitalisation, Mader has maintained a “high energy, entrepreneurial culture” first established by founder and chair Luke Mader.

    “A highly incentivised and fast paced team is exactly what’s required to expand successfully into new markets, as is Mader’s strategy.”

    73% gain already this year

    Dental centre network Pacific Smiles Group Ltd (ASX: PSQ) has seen its share price take off 28% over the past three weeks.

    The QVG team noted that the company last month reaffirmed its earnings guidance.

    “When people talk about stocks being cheap on a price-to-earnings or PE ratio, we remind ourselves this is only true if you use the right ‘E’,” read the memo.

    “This update confirms that trading has improved and removes uncertainty around the ‘E’.” 

    Mader and Pacific Smiles have done pretty well in 2023, but they are not even in the same ballpark as Duratec Ltd (ASX: DUR).

    The share price for the infrastructure maintenance contractor has gained a spectacular 73% since the start of the year.

    The QVG note mentioned that in April the company boosted its earnings guidance by 12%.

    “The rate of contract wins, the performance of their recent acquisition WPF and the absence of problem projects underpins Duratec’s guidance and outlook.”

    The conservative nature of the projects Duratec’s management takes on is a big bonus for QVG analysts.

    “We are only aware of a few problem projects in their history, which is testament to their internal controls and the nature of the jobs and customers they’re willing to take on.”

    The post ‘Revenues up 59%’: 3 small-cap ASX shares rocketing right now (and set for more gains) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Mader Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Mader Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is the Qantas share price at risk over the airline’s $12 billion renewal plans?

    A corporate-looking woman looks at her mobile phone as she pulls along her suitcase in another hand while walking through an airport terminal with high glass panelled walls.A corporate-looking woman looks at her mobile phone as she pulls along her suitcase in another hand while walking through an airport terminal with high glass panelled walls.

    The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price closed down 2.5% on Thursday.

    Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock finished the day trading for $6.35 apiece.

    But even with that retrace, the Qantas share price continues to outperform the ASX 200 in 2023, up 7% compared to a 4% gain posted by the benchmark index.

    The flying kangaroo has been buoyed by a rebound in travel demand, fuelled by pent up demand following years of pandemic  border closures.

    ASX 200 investors have also been attracted by the company’s recently reported strong half-year results.

    Qantas revenue over the six months surged 222% year on year to $9.9 billion. The airline also returned to profit, reporting a net profit of $1.4 billion. That helped to reduce net debt by $2.4 billion.

    But could the Qantas share price be in for some headwinds amid massive planned expenditures to renew its ageing fleet of aircraft?

    299 new airplanes over the next decade

    According to UBS the average age of Qantas airplanes has reached 13.6 years. Meaning a lot of the aircraft are due for renewal.

    Qantas expects to purchase 299 new airplanes over the coming decade. And UBS puts a price tag of just over $12 billion on the renewal plan over the next five years.

    That’s no chump change.

    And it has some analysts wondering if the Qantas share price could come under pressure if the company can no longer fund share buybacks or return to dividend payments, which have been suspended since 2020.

    Newly appointed CEO Vanessa Hudson expressed confidence the airline can do both.

    According to Hudson (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review), “Not only can we afford the capital expenditure that is coming, but we can also continue to reward our shareholders through the cycle.”

    Managing director at White Funds Management Angus Gluskie pointed to the potential for increased risk for the Qantas share price down the road.

    According to Gluskie (quoted by the AFR):

    Any large capital expenditure program like that increases the risk into the future. As they embark on that program, they are running the risks that if there is a downturn in the market they may have over committed and lose any flexibility in being able to adjust.

    However, he noted this as a “normal business risk”, adding that the new airplanes would improve the airline’s product line.

    Citi analyst Samuel Seow said he expects Qantas should be able to fund its new aircraft while still engaging in buybacks and potentially returning to dividend payouts.

    According to Seow:

    While the cost of the renewal is material, at the end of the day, Qantas can flex the order to align with earnings. In particular, the airline has the ability to scale up or down the number of planes it receives per year and spread the renewal over an extended timeframe.

    Additionally, the majority of the cash is only required to be paid on delivery of the plane, and terms were agreed before the rise in narrow body prices.

    Qantas share price snapshot

    The Qantas share price is up 12% over the past 12 months, handily beating the 2% loss posted by the ASX 200 over that same time.

    The post Is the Qantas share price at risk over the airline’s $12 billion renewal plans? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Qantas Airways Limited right now?

    Before you consider Qantas Airways Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Qantas Airways Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Aussie Broadband shares: Bull vs. Bear

    Woman in business suit holds both hands out with a question mark above each hand.Woman in business suit holds both hands out with a question mark above each hand.

    Aussie Broadband Ltd (ASX: ABB) shares made their debut on the ASX in October 2020 and have since had a wild ride on the bourse.

    The internet service retailer has seen its share price rocket from $1.90 on its first day to almost $6 just over a year ago. It was trading at $3.16 at market close on Thursday, a far cry from its former glory.

    So, which way is the stock headed long term? Could it be worth buying right now?

    How long can the little guy take the fight to the giants?

    By Tony Yoo: The NBN resale industry is one of the most commoditised markets in Australia.

    Many consumers will simply seek out the best deal – what speed and volume of internet data they will receive for the cost paid each month.

    However, Aussie Broadband has bucked the industry trend by carving out a niche as a quality provider.

    The company has managed to lure customers away from bigger rivals with deeper pockets by touting an Australian call centre and promising consistently faster speeds, all in return for more expensive monthly fees.

    Is this a sustainable strategy?

    I say no. 

    Sooner or later, Aussie Broadband will hit a cap on the number of people who are interested in paying more for better service. The simple fact is that most Australians just want the best value internet plans.

    Internet connections, especially for the residential market, have become a utility, much like electricity or water. The reality is that no one chooses a more expensive electricity provider because they like the local call centre.

    Already Aussie Broadband exists on a tiny net profit margin of 2.26% for the December quarter, as shown below.

    Aussie Broadband semi-annual net profit margin since listing. Data by Trading View

    To its credit, the Victorian company has expanded its offerings for business clientele to open up new avenues for growth.

    However, the big players like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) and Optus enjoy a huge advantage in this domain too, with existing relationships and a large network of face-to-face customer service personnel.

    This is not to say Aussie Broadband cannot succeed in the future. It’s just the risk is too much for me to buy the shares right now.

    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo does not own shares in Aussie Broadband Ltd.

    A classic disruption story with more growth in its sights

    By Brooke Cooper: Aussie Broadband is my pick of the ASX telecommunication shares, for one distinct reason: customer service.

    The company oozes a culture of customer service. Indeed, it’s topped the Ray Morgan Trusted Brand Awards in its category since 2020, beating out 20 rivals for the crown of Australia’s most trusted telco.

    Judging from my own experiences, and the company’s growth, plenty of telco customers seek value for money but stay for customer service. By providing both, Aussie Broadband has successfully disrupted the Aussie telecommunications industry.

    Just look at how fast its broadband customers have grown in recent years:

    Financial year Total Broadband services (approx.) Year-on-year % increase
    FY20 261,361
    FY21 400,848 53%
    FY22 584,793 46%

    At the end of the first half of this financial year, the company had more than 635,000 broadband connections – a 27% increase on the prior comparable period.

    It also boasted 7% of the NBN broadband market share and had just 1.2% of monthly residential customer churn over the period.

    On top of that, the company has been expanding into neighbouring markets. Its growing list of enterprise and government customers ­is a factor QVG Capital analysts expect could drive “a re-rating of the company”.

    But, as we know, past performance isn’t an indication of future performance. Not to mention, most disruption stories are also volatile ones with plenty of risks.

    Still, I’m confident the company has the ‘stickiness’ and proven ability to continue growing its market share and offerings from here.

    It’s currently Australia’s fifth-largest telco, with aspirations to enter the top four by 2025. To do so, it plans to polish its marketing strategy, develop and launch new products, and improve operational efficiencies.

    I admit, Aussie Broadband will probably never take on the market share boasted by the likes of Telstra, but I still think it’s a company worth investing in for growth. And the fall in its share price over the last year makes it a more affordable buy.

    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper does not own shares in Aussie Broadband Ltd.

    The post Aussie Broadband shares: Bull vs. Bear appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Aussie Broadband Limited right now?

    Before you consider Aussie Broadband Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Aussie Broadband Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Aussie Broadband. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aussie Broadband. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is the NAB share price in the buy zone after crashing?

    A man sitting at a computer is blown away by what he's seeing on the screen, hair and tie whooshing back as he screams argh in panic.

    A man sitting at a computer is blown away by what he's seeing on the screen, hair and tie whooshing back as he screams argh in panic.

    The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price took an almighty beating on Thursday.

    The banking giant’s shares ended the day over 6% lower at $26.72.

    This leaves NAB’s shares trading within throwing distance of their 52-week low.

    Why was the NAB share price sold off?

    Investors were hitting the sell button yesterday after the bank’s half-year results fell short of expectations.

    Goldman Sachs summarised what went wrong for NAB. It commented:

    NAB’s 1H23 cash earnings were up 17% on pcp but 4% below GSe, driven by lower-than-expected NIMs. While headline NIM was underwhelming, we note that a driver of this was a reclassification of net interest income into trading income.

    Is this a buying opportunity?

    While Goldman Sachs clearly wasn’t impressed with the bank’s results, it does still see a lot of value in the NAB share price.

    As a result, the broker has retained its buy rating on its shares with a reduced price target of $30.69. This implies potential upside of almost 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

    In addition, Goldman is now forecasting a $1.66 per share fully franked dividend in FY 2023. This represents a 6.2% yield, which boosts the total return on offer with NAB shares to 21%.

    What did the broker say?

    Goldman remains positive on the NAB share price for five key reasons. It explains:

    Our Buy rating on NAB is predicated on: i) we see volume momentum over the next 12 months as favouring commercial volumes over housing volumes, and we believe NAB provides the best exposure to this thematic, ii) NAB has delivered the highest levels of productivity over the last three years and its investments continue to yield benefits (A$400 mn expected in FY23E), which we think leaves it well positioned for an environment of elevated inflationary pressure, iii) NAB’s strong capital surplus position (A$3.1 bn of surplus capital above the top-end of its target CET1 range of 11.0-11.5%) allows flexibility for further buy-backs, v) NAB returns improvements vs. peers is not reflected in valuations (details within), and vi) our revised TP offers c. 21% TSR.

    The post Is the NAB share price in the buy zone after crashing? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in National Australia Bank Limited right now?

    Before you consider National Australia Bank Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and National Australia Bank Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Goldman Sachs is selling off its Liontown shares. Here’s the lowdown

    A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.

    Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares finished the session flat yesterday at $2.75 each.

    It’s been an exciting six weeks for Liontown shareholders since the company announced it had received another takeover bid from US lithium giant Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) in late March.

    The ASX lithium share has skyrocketed 81% since the company revealed its rejection of the $2.50 per share offer.

    All of this has prompted some serious institutional investor trading, and Goldman Sachs is among it.

    Let’s investigate.

    Liontown shares roar on Albermarle offer

    On 27 March, the day before the big announcement, Liontown shares closed at $1.525.

    Then came the news pre-open the next day, and off they went to the stratosphere.

    Liontown shares closed the day on 28 March at $2.57.

    And they’ve kept on rising since.

    Since the announcement, several institutional brokers have been jumping in and out of Liontown shares seeking to generate short-term profits while the upward momentum is strong.

    One of them is top broker Goldman Sachs.

    Let’s check out their activity.

    How ‘instos’ operate

    First, a quick lesson on how institutional investors work.

    The ‘instos’ often duck and weave in and out of ASX shares looking to make profits on short-term price movements (up or down).

    Because they are investing enormous sums of money each time they trade, just a few cents of movement can generate a significant capital gain for them and their clients.

    Sometimes their trading activity breaches the 5% ‘substantial holder’ threshold, which has to be declared on the ASX for all of us to see. From there, we can watch to see what they do with their holdings.

    This gives us ordinary investors an idea as to what price to buy and sell a particular ASX share.

    Handy, huh?

    So, let’s see what Goldman Sachs has been doing with Liontown shares of late.

    Goldman profits on the big announcement

    How’s this for timing?

    Goldman became a substantial holder of Liontown shares just a week before the Albemarle announcement. They took a 5.08% stake on 22 March.

    On the day Liontown announced the Albemarle offer, Goldman took some profits. It ceased to be a substantial holder on the day.

    A couple of weeks later on 11 April, Goldman once again became a substantial holder with a 5.28% stake.

    The ASX disclosure doesn’t tell us at what price Goldman rebought Liontown shares.

    But the ASX lithium share opened that day at $2.60, hit a low of $2.575, a high of $2.71, and then closed at $2.62.

    Goldman held the stock for just two days before ceasing to be a substantial holder on 13 April.

    On that day, Liontown shares opened at $2.70, hit a low of $2.67, a high of $2.73, and then closed at $2.73.

    Over the past six weeks, the highest price that Liontown shares have traded at is $2.84.

    What does Goldman really think of Liontown shares?

    Interestingly enough, Goldman analysts actually aren’t that keen on Liontown shares.

    In fact, they foresee a 45% drop from here.

    In its most recent broker note on Liontown shares, published one day after the takeover news, Goldman issued a neutral rating with an unchanged 12-month share price target of $1.50.

    Goldman noted the key risks included construction and commissioning risk, cost inflation, lithium prices, macro risks, growth, and mergers and acquisitions.

    In the note, Goldman said:

    While we like the outlook for the ramped up [flagship Kathleen Valley Lithium Project] and future optionality, we rate LTR a Neutral on:

    (1) Valuation: LTR is trading at a discount to our NAV following recent share price performance, and remains at a discount to peers on both implied LT spodumene price and EV/reserves, while also having the second highest valuation sensitivity to our LT lithium pricing

    (2) Strong capacity outlook, though pre-construction: Once ramped up to 500ktpa, Kathleen Valley will have a competitive scale (before expanding to 700ktpa toward the end of the decade)

    (3) Rapid de-leveraging post-ramp up supports future growth and capital returns: We expect LTR to return to net cash by FY27E, and see optionality around the proposed timing of a downstream development, though capital returns lag peers with already operating projects.

    At the time of writing, Goldman is no longer a substantial holder of Liontown shares.

    This does not necessarily mean it has sold out of Liontown completely.

    What’s the latest on Albemarle?

    Two days after Liontown announced its rejection of the offer, the company issued a statement revealing Albemarle had near doubled its stake from about 2.2% to 4.3% (that’s less than Goldman has held recently).

    Liontown said Albemarle had requested a copy of the register in order to contact shareholders directly about its offer.

    On Tuesday, Liontown hosed down media speculation that it had received an offer from another suitor.

    Broker Bell Potter has a $3.35 price target on Liontown shares.

    As my Fool colleague James reports, the broker reckons Albemarle’s bid was “reasonable, but not full”.

    Liontown released a new investor presentation on Tuesday.

    The post Goldman Sachs is selling off its Liontown shares. Here’s the lowdown appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Liontown Resources right now?

    Before you consider Liontown Resources, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Liontown Resources wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

    Smiling man with phone in wheelchair watching stocks and trends on computer

    Smiling man with phone in wheelchair watching stocks and trends on computer

    On Thursday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) recovered from its lows but just fell short of positive territory. The benchmark index was down 4.3 points to 7,193.1 points.

    Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Friday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to fall again

    The Australian share market looks set to end the week in the red following another poor night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 15 points or 0.2% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.5%.

    ANZ half-year results

    The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price will be one to watch today when the banking giant releases its half-year results. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting the bank to report cash earnings growth of 27.8% to $3,978 million. This is ahead of the consensus estimate of $3,769 million. An interim dividend of 80 cents per share is expected. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is also releasing its results today.

    Oil prices mixed

    ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a subdued finish to the week after a mixed night of trade for oil prices. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.2% to US$68.46 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is flat at US$72.33 a barrel. Demand concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

    Gold price rises

    Gold shares Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) and St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) could have a decent finish to the week after the gold price charged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 1% to US$2,056.7 an ounce. Concerns over the US banking sector has lifted the safe haven asset to within sight of a record high.

    NAB shares remain a buy

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs have retained their buy rating on National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares despite being disappointed with its half-year results. Goldman has a buy rating and trimmed price target of $30.69 on its shares. This implies potential upside of almost 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the ‘five best ASX stocks’ for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Brokers say these ASX dividend shares are top buys

    A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.

    A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.

    If you’re an income investor looking for dividends to boost your income, then you may want to consider the ASX shares listed below.

    Both of these ASX dividend shares have been rated as buys and tipped to provide investors with attractive yields in the coming years.

    Here’s what you need to know about these shares:

    Dexus Industria REIT (ASX: DXI)

    The first ASX dividend share that has been tipped as a buy is this industrial and office property company.

    Macquarie is positive on the company and has an outperform rating and $3.28 price target on its shares.

    Its analysts believe Dexus Industria’s earnings profile is superior to most of its peers. This is due to its development pipeline and being leveraged to industrial rental growth.

    As for dividends, the broker is forecasting dividends per share of 16.4 cents in FY 2023 and 16.7 cents in FY 2024. Based on the current Dexus Industria share price of $2.85, this will mean yields of 5.75% and 5.85%, respectively.

    Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

    Another ASX dividend share that has been tipped as a buy is Suncorp. It is one of Australia’s leading insurance and banking companies.

    Morgans is a fan of Suncorp and currently has an add rating and $14.44 price target on its shares.

    As well as the potential benefits from its efficiency program, the broker likes Suncorp due to its attractive valuation and generous yield. It highlights that “[w]ith SUN trading on 11.5x FY24F earnings and a 6% dividend yield, we see it as reasonable value at current levels.”

    Morgans is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 77.7 cents in FY 2023 and 87.8 cents in FY 2024. Based on the current Suncorp share price of $12.36, this will mean yields of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively.

    The post Brokers say these ASX dividend shares are top buys appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Suncorp right now?

    Before you consider Suncorp, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Suncorp wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of April 3 2023

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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