Category: Stock Market

  • Why is the Hawsons Iron share price tanking 9% today?

    man grimaces next to falling stock graphman grimaces next to falling stock graph

    The Hawsons Iron Ltd (ASX: HIO) share price is slipping on Thursday, down 9.09% to 10 cents per share in afternoon trading

    Today’s movement brings further pain to shareholders, who have had to endure a 74% decline in the Hawsons Iron share price over the past month alone.

    What’s whacking the Hawsons Iron share price today?

    The answer is likely to be the same issue whacking the major ASX iron ore shares today: China.

    There’s no price-sensitive news out of the small-cap miner today. However, it did lodge its presentation from the Noosa Mining Investor Conference with the ASX for shareholders to review.

    The bigger issue for the iron ore miner today is the ongoing discussion about China’s economic slowdown.

    As we reported earlier, China’s property sector has been decimated. This had led to lower construction activity and demand for steel, which has lowered the demand for Australian iron ore.

    China’s economy is also slowing because lockdowns enforced under the COVID-zero policy are disrupting industrial activity.

    Over the past 18 months, this has led to a dramatic fall in the price of iron ore.

    According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Reserve Bank deputy governor Michele Bullock says these two issues are among the bank’s top concerns for the health of the Australian economy.

    What’s going on with the iron ore price?

    Iron ore has gone from a record-high price of about US$240 per tonne in May 2021 to US$91.50 per tonne today.

    That directly affects the earnings of every Australian iron ore business, regardless of whether they export to China specifically.

    Today, Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) shares are down 0.4% to $98.21. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 1% to $40.75. The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is down 1.6% to $16.85.

    Michael Slack of MCA writes on Livewire that the iron ore price could go down further due to an impending oversupply. As a result, his fund is underweight on iron ore companies.

    Slack said:

    Looking forward, we see growth in iron ore supply, particularly out of Australia, Brazil and Africa, exceeding growth in Chinese demand thereby pushing the iron ore market into surplus and impacting price.

    If China continues along this path and allows the property sector to wallow, iron ore pricing and resource companies may suffer along with it.

    Why has the Hawsons Iron share price lost 80%?

    Hawsons Iron’s woes don’t just stop at the falling value of iron ore.

    Some company-specific things are going on that have caused a massive drop in the share price.

    As my Fool colleague Brooke reported, Hawsons announced it was pressing the pause button on its flagship project last month.

    The need to preserve cash forced the decision to slow activity on the Hawson Iron Project’s bankable feasibility study (BFS).

    Shareholders had a negative reaction. In fact, they went crazy. The share price tanked 62% on the day of the news and it hasn’t recovered since.

    Prior to the announcement, Hawsons Iron had been one of the success stories of the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) in 2022.

    While most ASX shares had been falling this year, the Hawsons Iron share price had gone up 118% before the fateful news.

    At today’s Noosa Mining Conference, managing director Bryan Granzien said Hawsons had a “world-class resource” project. It is located in the Braemar iron region about 60km southwest of Broken Hill.

    He reminded investors that it has a current JORC 2012 Resource of 3.9 billion tonnes at 12.3 DTR% for 481 Mt of concentrate. Hawsons also has a trademarked ‘Supergrade’ iron ore product with 70% Fe.

    The post Why is the Hawsons Iron share price tanking 9% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of November 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Billiton Limited and Fortescue Metals Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Here are the 3 most traded ASX 200 shares on Thursday

    Man looks shocked as he works on laptop on top a skyscraper with stockmarket figures in graphic behind him.Man looks shocked as he works on laptop on top a skyscraper with stockmarket figures in graphic behind him.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) seems to be on the cusp of giving up its recent winning streak, and is suffering a mild fall today thus far. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has suffered a loss of 0.47% and is back down to around 6,970 points.

    But rather than dwelling on all that, let’s instead take a deeper look into these falls by checking out the ASX 200 shares that are topping the market’s trading volume charts right now, according to investing.com.

    The 3 most traded ASX 200 shares by volume this Thursday

    Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

    First up today is ASX 200 gold share Evolution. Evolution Mining has seen a sizable 16.43 million of its shares exchanged on the ASX so far this Thursday.

    There’s been no news out of Evolution today. So the likely cause of this trading volume is the pleasing share price gains that Evolution shares are enjoying. The gold miner is currently up by a healthy 3.83% at $2.44 after gold prices rose overnight.

    Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO)

    Our next ASX 200 share today is the lithium producer Core Lithium. This Thursday has seen a notable 17.27 million Core shares swapped at present. With no news out from this company either, we can again assume that it is the Core Lithium share price that is responsible for these volumes.

    Core Lithium has indeed had a bumpy day. The lithium share started the trading session deep in the red, but has steadily recovered to put it at $1.59 a share at present, up 1.73% for the session.

    Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

    Last but certainly not least today, we have ASX 200 energy utility share Origin Energy. Origin has had a hefty 39.89 million shares change owners thus far today. This is almost certainly the result of the seismic share price movement we have witnessed today.

    At present, Origin shares are up a whopping 35.28% at $7.86 each. As we covered earlier, this comes after the company received a takeover offer at $9 a share from Brookfield Asset Management and MidOcean Energy. No wonder so many shares are flying around.

    The post Here are the 3 most traded ASX 200 shares on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of November 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Don’t panic! Here are 7 reasons we can avoid a recession: AMP

    A male investor wearing a white shirt and blue suit jacket sits at his desk looking at his laptop with his hands to his chin, waiting in anticipation.

    A male investor wearing a white shirt and blue suit jacket sits at his desk looking at his laptop with his hands to his chin, waiting in anticipation.It has been a rough year for the ASX share market, though AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares have been one of the few to rise strongly, up by more than 20%.

    The global economy is going through a difficult time with inflation, higher interest rates, challenging changes in foreign currency markets and expectations of a slowing of growth.

    Australia may seem to face a tricky situation. Households are being slugged with much higher loan repayments and a number of commodity prices have fallen, including the iron ore price with Chinese demand reducing.

    But, it’s not all doom and gloom. Shane Oliver, an expert from AMP, shares his view about why things may not be too bad.

    Solid business investment outlook

    He pointed to ongoing strong business investment plans.

    Oliver said that ‘real’ business investment is expected to grow by around 5% over the year ahead, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics capital spending intentions survey showing a 15% increase compared to a year ago.

    Home building work pipeline

    Construction is an important part of the Australian economy. While approvals to build new homes have fallen “about 25%”, he noted that there is still a large pipeline of work yet to be completed “with home completions yet to catch up” with the surge in approvals through COVID-19.

    This will “likely provide a floor for home building”, preventing a plunge.

    National income boost from energy

    Energy prices are one of the biggest causes of inflation in the country, but this is actually helping national income thanks to the earnings of energy ASX shares and other energy companies. We’ve seen the profits of Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) soar.

    This helped the budget deficit by $48 billion in the last financial year and is expected to help by $42 billion in this financial year, giving the Australian government more financial flexibility.

    Slower RBA increases

    The latest increase in the cash target rate was 0.25%, even though there were a number of voices calling for a 0.50% increase.

    Oliver noted that the RBA will do what it takes to return inflation back to normal, “while keeping the economy on an even keel”. This 0.25% increase could strike “the right balance between doing too much and too little”.

    It could be worth pointing out that a number of ASX financial shares have done well in recent weeks. AMP shares are up more than 10%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are also up more than 10% while Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are up around 10%.

    Potential for lower Aussie dollar

    The Australian dollar has already fallen against the US dollar this year. However, if the prices decline for the commodities that Australia exports, then this could lead to further falls for the Australian dollar.

    Why would that be a good thing for the Australian economy? Oliver suggests that this would make the exports more competitively priced, as it did in the GFC.

    He also pointed out that the Chinese zero COVID policy could be lifted, a positive example being the relaxation of PCR test requirements in some regions. An end to the zero COVID policy “could result in a sharp rebound in Chinese growth” which could then boost global growth and Australian growth.

    Rebound of immigration

    Now that Australia’s border is open again, the federal budget is expecting net immigration of 235,000, after negative net immigration in FY21.

    Immigration, according to Oliver, will “help ease the labour shortage and tight jobs market… Which in turn will help head off a surge in wages growth to levels well beyond those consistent with the inflation target.”

    Comparatively less inflation

    On this point, Oliver made the point that if the Australian economy remains resilient, the RBA may need to increase interest rates even more to slow demand.

    But, he believes that the RBA won’t need to increase the interest rate too much more for a few different reasons.

    Oliver pointed out that Australian wages are not growing like they are in other countries, energy prices have not gone up as much as in Europe, inflation expectations remain relatively low, other central banks are doing some of the heavy lifting, and US price pressures are starting to slow which “should benefit Australia which is following US inflation with a six-month lag”.

    Slower interest rate increases and a lower peak would probably help AMP shares, and plenty of other valuations, thanks to less damage being done to household budgets and less pressure on share prices. In theory, higher interest rates are meant to push down the value of assets because investors can get a higher risk-free rate of return from government bonds.

    The post Don’t panic! Here are 7 reasons we can avoid a recession: AMP appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 3 directors have been buying up over $1 million of this ASX 200 share in the past week

    Woman looking at her smartphone and analysing share price.

    Woman looking at her smartphone and analysing share price.When a director of an ASX 200 share is buying up their own company hand over fist, it’s probably worth at least a look. That is the situation with ASX fast food share Dominos Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) right now.

    Domino’s Pizza shares have had a pretty horrible year. The company has fallen a nasty 53.2% year to date and is down an even nastier 65% or so from its September 2021 all-time high of $133.67. Today, the company is asking $57.44 at the time of writing, up 0.31% for the day.

    And yet, we know that at least some Domino’s directors have been loading the proverbial boat with shares at these prices. Just yesterday, we found out from an ASX notice that director Uschi Schreiber bought 273 Domino’s shares on 2 September, and a further 257 shares on 3 November.

    These tranches were purchased at an average price of $61.99 and $54.04 respectively, bringing Schreiber’s total share count to 2,030.

    Domino’s directors buy up their own shares with gusto

    On that same day, we also found out that fellow director Donal Meij was also loading up. Meij bought four tranches of Domino’s shares between 3 and 8 November. These were purchased between $53.84 and $57.46 per share. The new shares added up to a total of 17,968 shares, meaning Meij now owns 1.26 million direct shares in the company.

    To make things even more interesting, on November 8, we also discovered that another director in Tony Peake added 1,600 shares to his superannuation fund. Peake paid an average of $53.71 for 1,600 new shares bringing his funds’ total to 2,600 shares. His wife owns a further 1,400 shares.

    So we can conclude with relative certainty that multiple directors of Domino’s reckon the company is looking cheap at the recent pricing. If that’s not a vote of confidence in their own company, I don’t know what is.

    At the current Domino’s Pizza share price, this ASX 200 fast food share has a market capitalisation of $4.97 billion, with a dividend yield of 2.72%.    

    The post 3 directors have been buying up over $1 million of this ASX 200 share in the past week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Dominos Pizza Enterprises Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why Lycopodium, Origin, Perpetual, and Sandfire shares are charging higher

    a young woman raises her hands in joyful celebration as she sits at her computer in a home environment.

    a young woman raises her hands in joyful celebration as she sits at her computer in a home environment.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is out of form on Thursday. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 0.5% to 6,964.1 points.

    Four ASX shares that aren’t letting that hold them back today are listed below. Here’s why they are charging higher:

    Lycopodium Ltd (ASX: LYL)

    The Lycopodium share price is up 4% to $6.76. Investors have been buying this engineering company’s shares after it announced the award of contracts worth approximately $40 million. The contracts are for engineering and procurement services and construction management services for Endeavour Mining’s Lafigué Project in the Ivory Coast.

    Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

    The Origin share price is up 35% to $7.87. This has been driven by news that the energy company has received an indicative, conditional, and non-binding proposal from Brookfield Asset Management and MidOcean Energy to acquire it for $9.00 cash per share. This represents a premium of almost 55% to its last close price.

    Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT)

    The Perpetual share price is up 11% to $32.32. The catalyst for this is news that the fund manager has received an improved takeover offer from the consortium comprising BPEA Private Equity Fund VIII and Regal Partners. The consortium has lifted its offer by 10% to $33.00 per share. However, Perpetual has rejected the proposal on the belief that its offer “continues to materially undervalue the company.”

    Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

    The Sandfire share price is up almost 5% to $4.19. This morning the copper miner announced the appointment of highly experienced mining executive Brendan Harris as its new CEO. Sandfire notes that Harris has extensive experience as an exploration geologist and was a senior executive with BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and South32 Ltd (ASX: S32).

    The post Why Lycopodium, Origin, Perpetual, and Sandfire shares are charging higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of November 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Can ASX 200 gold share Evolution Mining really surge another 30% on top of recent gains?

    a woman in a business suit holds a large solid gold bar in both hands with a superimposed image of a gagged gold line tracking upwards and featuring a swooping curved arrow pointing upwards.a woman in a business suit holds a large solid gold bar in both hands with a superimposed image of a gagged gold line tracking upwards and featuring a swooping curved arrow pointing upwards.

    The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks. Most ASX 200 gold miners have been doing well. But Evolution shares have really shone out among the pack. Since 21 October, the Evolution share price has gained an impressive 33%.

    That’s far better than most other ASX 200 gold miners. Take the largest gold share on the ASX 200 — Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM). Over that same period, Newcrest shares are ‘only’ up around 14%.

    The catalyst for this move appears to be a recovering gold price, as well as potentially abating fears that interest rates still have a long way to climb.

    But could Evolution Mining shares still have another 30% upside left in the tank? That’s what one ASX broker reckons.

    ASX broker gives Evolution Mining shares a 30% upside

    According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, ASX broker Morgan Stanley has just re-rated Evolution Mining shares to overweight. That came with a 12-month share price target of $3.10.

    Since the miner is today trading at $2.42 at the time of writing, up a healthy 3% for the day so far, this share price target would equate to a potential upside of more than 28% if it came to pass.

    No doubt investors will be pleased with that assessment.

    My Fool colleague Bernd looked into the gold price last month and where it might be heading from here.

    He cited a report from BMO Capital Markets that predicted the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as aggressively as what the markets are predicting. Because of this, BMO Capital is anticipating that gold prices will hold up around the US$1,680 mark until mid-next year.

    This could be why a broker like Morgan Stanley is bullish on a gold miner like Evolution. But we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

    At the current Evolution Mining share price, this ASX 200 gold miner has a market capitalisation of $4.43 billion, with a dividend yield of 2.48%.

    The post Can ASX 200 gold share Evolution Mining really surge another 30% on top of recent gains? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of November 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Newcrest Mining Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Up 75% in 2022, is it time to cash in on Sayona Mining shares?

    A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.

    The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price is falling today.

    Shares of the lithium producer are currently trading for 24.3 cents each, a drop of 1.22% on Wednesday’s closing price.

    The materials sector is also struggling today and is currently one of the worst-performing sectors in afternoon trade on Thursday. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) is down 0.98%, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is falling 0.31%.

    However, despite today’s fall, Sayona shares are up 75% this year to date. So is it time to cash in? Let’s cover the highlights of where the Sayona Mining share price could be heading.

    What’s going on with Sayona?

    Sayona Mining’s rating was downgraded by bank Clarksons Platou this afternoon. The company changed its position on the share recently by rating it as a ‘new sell’.

    At face value, it might be hard to imagine why some experts believe its shares could be in for a downturn. The company has posted consistently positive developments in its fundamentals in the recent past, and its outlook for FY23 remains positive.

    One thesis that my Fool colleague James posted in October is that investors could be taking this opportunity to take profits in their investments.

    Then there’s the outlook for lithium prices in China. S&P Global predicts that lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices will continue their bull run to the end of the year, with some estimates stating prices will exceed Yuan 600,000/mt by January 2023. 

    However, the company also notes that production is expected to slow down during the quiet winter period, which could be a factor that’s being priced into some lithium shares.

    This might explain why some shares like Sayona have been shorted by bears. The company recently made the list of the top ten most-shorted ASX shares with a short interest ratio of 8.9% at the time of writing.

    Sayona Mining share price snapshot

    The Sayona Mining share price is up 75% year to date and 60% over the past year. That’s beating the ASX 200 by a huge margin — it’s down 8% and 6% over the same timeframes.

    The company’s market capitalisation is around $2.03 billion.

    The post Up 75% in 2022, is it time to cash in on Sayona Mining shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Sayona Mining Limited right now?

    Before you consider Sayona Mining Limited, you’ll want to hear this.

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    Motley Fool contributor Matthew Farley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why Block, Lake Resources, Pendal, and Xero shares are dropping today

    a woman holds her hands to her temples as she sits in front of a computer screen with a concerned look on her face.

    a woman holds her hands to her temples as she sits in front of a computer screen with a concerned look on her face.In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end its winning streak. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 6,978 points.

    Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

    Block Inc (ASX: SQ2)

    The Block share price is down almost 7% to $89.49. This follows an even larger decline by the payments company’s NYSE listed shares overnight on Wall Street. Block wasn’t the only tech share under pressure. A number of tech stocks dropped deep into the red, leading to the tech-focused Nasdaq index sliding 2.5% last night.

    Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE)

    The Lake Resources share price is down 3.5% to $1.07. This follows broad weakness in the lithium industry today. In addition, Lake Resources shares have come under pressure during the last couple of sessions after J Capital renewed its short attack on the lithium developer.

    Pendal Group Ltd (ASX: PDL)

    The Pendal share price is down over 11% to $3.89. Investors have been selling this fund manager’s shares amid concerns that Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT) could be looking to abandon its takeover of Pendal. Perpetual, which has received an improved takeover proposal today, has sought to delay a court hearing for the scheme of arrangement.

    Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

    The Xero share price has sunk 10% to $65.09. Investors have been selling this cloud accounting platform provider’s shares after its first half earnings fell short of estimates. In addition, the company announced the surprise exit of its CEO, Steve Vamos, after almost five years in the top job. In respect to its earnings, Xero reported EBITDA of NZ$108.6 million (or NZ$123.7 million excluding one-offs). This compares to the consensus estimate of NZ$143 million.

    The post Why Block, Lake Resources, Pendal, and Xero shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Block, Inc. and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Block, Inc. and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • China’s property crash has decimated the iron ore price. So what’s the outlook for Rio Tinto shares?

    Two businessmen look out at the city from the top of a tall building.Two businessmen look out at the city from the top of a tall building.

    The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price is down 0.72% today to $97.92 as fears of further trouble in China’s property market create concern about the outlook for iron ore.

    Fellow ASX mining shares are also falling today. The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is down 2.04% to $16.77. The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is down 1.26% to $40.66.

    There is no news from Rio today. However, ongoing discussion about China’s slowing economy is likely weighing on the Rio Tinto share price.

    According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) today, Reserve Bank deputy governor Michele Bullock says China’s stressed property market and COVID-zero policy are among their top concerns for the Australian economy.

    China’s property market is floundering, which means reduced new construction. On top of that, its COVID-zero policy means lockdowns have and may continue to disrupt industrial activity. The direct result of these two factors is less demand from Australia’s biggest iron ore customer.

    ‘Steepest downturn in years’ for China’s property sector

    Lesser demand from China has led to a fall in the iron ore price. It has almost halved from its 52-week peak of about $160 per tonne in March. Today, it’s fetching US$91.50 per tonne, up 0.55% overnight.

    That’s a long way off its all-time record high of about US$240 per tonne back in May 2021.

    According to reporting on abc.net.au today, UBS resources analyst Lachlan Shaw said:

    We’re seeing the steepest downturn in property activity in China, in years, arguably decades, as the industry there struggles with liquidity and policy from the government.

    The combination of developer funding challenges and lack of demand is seeing property purchases in China very, very weak.

    That’s been traditionally, for the last decade or two, probably a third or more of China’s steel demand, and therefore over a sixth of global steel demand.

    According to Trading Economics, investment in China’s “debt-ridden” property market has fallen by more than 8% year over year. In October, lower steel demand drove iron ore imports down by 4.7%.

    Head of research for MCA Michael Slack is also concerned that supply is about to increase. All the major miners in Australia have built, or are building, new iron ore mines.

    Slack writes on Livewire:

    Looking forward, we see growth in iron ore supply, particularly out of Australia, Brazil and Africa, exceeding growth in Chinese demand thereby pushing the iron ore market into surplus and impacting price.

    If China continues along this path and allows the property sector to wallow, iron ore pricing and resource companies may suffer along with it.

    Because of this demand overhang and its potential impact on resources stocks, we currently hold an underweight exposure to iron ore in our value equity strategy. 

    ‘Long-term future for iron ore is strong’: Rio Tinto boss

    Rio Tinto’s iron ore CEO, Simon Trott, says all this talk is about the relative short-term future.

    Trott told the ABC:

    We are seeing some short-term weakness, particularly with inflation and interest rates rising in the Western world, and those events, combined with some impact from COVID lockdowns on the property sector in China, and so we have seen a pullback in iron ore prices of late.

    But the long-term future for the iron ore business is strong, the world continues to need steel and will continue to need steel for the lives people want to live as well as future decarbonisation.

    The investment decisions we make are based on our view over decades, so our long term belief in the iron ore market is unchanged.

    It’s worth remembering that while daily fluctuations in the iron ore price do directly impact ASX iron ore shares, Rio is a diversified miner. This means the business doesn’t hinge solely on the iron ore outlook.

    Iron ore represented 66% of Rio Tinto’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for the six months to 30 June 2022.

    The company also mines aluminium, copper, and other minerals including diamonds and titanium.

    Rio Tinto share price snapshot

    The Rio Tinto share price is down 4% in the year to date. Over the past 12 months, it’s up 13%.

    Compare that to iron ore pure-play miner, Fortescue.

    The Fortescue share price is down 15% in the year to date and up 17% over the past months.

    The post China’s property crash has decimated the iron ore price. So what’s the outlook for Rio Tinto shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Billiton Limited and Fortescue Metals Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is the CSL share price smashing the ASX 200 on Thursday?

    ASX 300 share investors in suits running a race on an athletics trackASX 300 share investors in suits running a race on an athletics track

    The CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price is outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) today. CSL shares are up 1.35% to $283.39 apiece while the ASX 200 is down 0.4%.

    The market is a mixed bag today with some sectors up and some down.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) is up 1.41%, making it the second-best performing sector of the day so far. It ranks behind S&P/ASX 200 Utilities (ASX: XUJ), which is having a screamer — up 14%.

    COVID-19 disrupts trajectory of CSL share price

    The CSL share price was on an incredible upward trajectory before COVID-19 hit in February 2020.

    This time five years ago, the CSL share price was $144. It rose to a peak of $342.75 on 20 February. That’s a 138% gain in 27 months. Oh, yes. That’s a stratospheric growth for a company the size of CSL.

    Then the world caved in over COVID-19 and it’s been a very bumpy ride for CSL shares ever since.

    Is it time to buy this ASX market darling?

    A bunch of brokers are now feeling very positive about the CSL share price, and the future of the company.

    Today, The Australian reports that Credit Suisse has raised its rating on CSL shares to outperform.

    The broker isn’t alone in its optimistic outlook.

    As my Fool colleague Tristan reported yesterday, Morgans has an add rating on CSL with a 12-month share price target of $312.50.

    Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on CSL with a price target of $327. Ord Minnett has a price target of $330. Citi goes a couple of steps further with a 12-month share price target of $340.

    My Fool colleague Tony also reports that 15 out of 18 analysts on CMC Markets rate CSL a buy.

    Fairmont Equities managing director Michael Gable told The Bull this week:

    The share price of this blood products company has been relatively flat in the past two years. Because CSL is a growth stock, interest rate rises have kept a lid on the share price.

    But with interest rate rises poised to slow or even cease in the new year, Gable feels like CSL shares have a fighting chance to return to glory.

    The recent acquisition of Vifor Pharma should add to CSL’s earnings next year, and a topping out in interest rates should also assist a share price recovery.

    The post Why is the CSL share price smashing the ASX 200 on Thursday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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