Category: Stock Market

Earlier this week The Motley Fool reported on the ASX share portfolios that should ring alarm bells. 

This time let’s take a look at the opposite — portfolios that are ready to beat the market.

Of course, success is not confined to just these models. But the team at Marcus Today reckon these two styles have a great chance of beating the market:

Portfolio to invest for income

We already heard how useless it is to have a portfolio stuffed solely with large cap ASX shares.

Not only does such a batch have a poor chance of beating the market, it encourages laziness. The investor may not keep track of what’s happening with those businesses, armed with a false sense of security from the big names.

“It may seem normal and sensible, but the truth is that if you’re going to do this ‘moron portfolio’ thing, you’d be better saving yourself from a lot of admin, activity and lost evenings and weekends by just buying market ETFs,” read the Marcus Today blog post.

But converse to that is owning a “big 20” income portfolio.

“Unlike holding a portfolio of twenty big stocks just because they’re big, picking 20 stocks for yield is a sensible use of your time.”

Constructing such a stable requires some intelligent research to pick ASX shares that are high yielding but have relatively low volatility.

Not all income stocks are born the same, the Marcus Today analysts warned.

“Banks are income stocks. They are boring, safe, have high payout ratios and few ambitions. They understand the importance of their dividends to shareholders and will pay them come high water,” the blog read.

“Resources, on the other hand, are cyclical. They offer high yields in the good times but as we found out from Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) at the last results, not all the time.”

Portfolio to invest for growth

The other model the Marcus Today team favours is owning a portfolio of just five to ten ASX shares and looking after them really well.

“This is probably the most ‘fun’ and intellectual, yet least guesswork way to make money out of stocks,” read the blog.

“The trick is to keep the list short so you know the stocks. Five would be a good number.”

The idea here is that owning five companies that you really know well and closely follow is infinitely better than a portfolio of 20 businesses that you have little idea about.

The stocks are bought with a long-term horizon, then “maybe three or four times” a year the investor would review the portfolio to sell and buy other ones.

“You know them well, get to understand how they trade, what they do, when to buy them and when to sell them.”

This concentrated portfolio is the opposite of another “red flag” the Marcus Today team raised: stock picking anything and everything.

“Trading everything and anything — it involves tips and it invites a lot of volatility, risk and reward,” stated the blog.

“It is for people who don’t have a heart condition. This is riding the stormy seas.”

The post 2 types of stock portfolios primed to beat the market: experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• ‘Strongest tailwinds in a decade’: Morgans tips Telstra shares as a buy
• Up 12% in 30 days, is the Westpac share price still a buy?
• Can Coles shares deliver 13% growth AND tasty dividends this year?
• Experts name 2 ASX growth shares to buy when the market reopens
• Could this ASX 200 share be heading for a short squeeze?

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price could be great value after the telco’s full year results.

That’s the view of the team at Morgans, which have reiterated their bullish view on the company’s shares.

What is the broker saying about Telstra’s shares?

According to a note, the broker felt that Telstra delivered a “good result” in FY 2022. It said:

Delivering his last result, CEO Andrew Penn exits Telstra Corporation on a high note. The FY22 result came in at the upper end of guidance (underlying EBITDA +8% YoY), FCF was a beat and TLS raised its dividend (+0.5 cents) for the first time in years.

In light of this and its positive outlook, the broker has retained its add rating and lifted its price target to $4.60.

Based on the current Telstra share price of $4.00, this implies potential upside of 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, Morgans is now forecasting a 17 cents per share fully franked dividend in FY 2023. If we add this into the equation, this will mean a total return of almost 20% for investors.

‘Strongest tailwinds in a decade’

Morgans is bullish on the Telstra share price largely due to its belief that the company is experiencing its best trading conditions in a decade. It explained:

Telco has the strongest tailwinds in a decade with an increasingly rational market, pricing rises and the criticality of telco increasingly recognised. This combines with an incoming CEO who currently seems unlikely to drastically change the business and the potential for value uplift (potential bids) following the legal restructure. We retain our Add recommendation and our Target Price lifts to $4.60.

The post ‘Strongest tailwinds in a decade’: Morgans tips Telstra shares as a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Friday
• Is the Telstra share price a buy after the telco’s FY22 results?
• Why AMP, OFX, Rio Tinto, and Telstra shares are dropping
• Equity markets threaten to ‘melt up’ as Nasdaq enters bull market territory

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Corporation Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price has had a great month on the market, lifting around 12% in that time.

And despite its recent green streak, many brokers are still predicting gains from the banking giant.

The Westpac share price closed 0.8% higher at $22.66 on Friday.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished down 0.54% today while the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) slipped 0.22%.

So, what are brokers expecting from the third largest ASX 200 ‘big four’ bank? Let’s take a look.

Does the Westpac share price still offer a notable upside?

The Westpac share price has been on a roll lately, and it still has a decent upside if you ask Goldman Sachs.

The broker has tipped the Westpac share price to reach $26.12, slapping it with a ‘buy’ rating, my Fool colleague James reports. That represents a potential 15% upside on its current price.

The broker believes the company will benefit from rising interest rates and expects it to up its dividends over the coming years.

It’s tipped Westpac to pay shareholders $1.23 of fully franked dividends in financial year 2022 and $1.35 in financial year 2023.

For context, the bank paid out $1.18 per share in financial year 2021. It’s expected to announce its final dividend for financial year 2022 in November.

The team at Morgan Stanley has also recently been bullish on the bank, placing an ‘outperform’ rating on the stock earlier this month.

And while Westpac shares have since surpassed Morgan Stanley’s price target, investors will likely hope its dividend forecast will come true. The broker tipped $1.25 of dividends for financial year 2022 and $1.30 for financial year 2023.

Finally, Citi had a $29 price target and a ‘buy’ rating on Westpac shares last month, representing a potential 28% upside. On top of that, its dividend outlook was the most bullish by far.

It’s expecting the bank’s shareholders to receive $1.23 per share in financial year 2022 and a whopping $1.55 in financial year 2023.

The post Up 12% in 30 days, is the Westpac share price still a buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Top ASX dividend shares to buy in August 2022
• Own Westpac shares? Here’s when the ASX 200 bank will release its FY22 earnings
• Analysts say these ASX dividend shares are top buys
• Own Westpac shares? This broker expects the bank’s dividends to surge 10% by FY23  
• 2 ASX dividend shares that experts rate as buys

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares have been a pleasing investment to have held in recent months. Just take yesterday. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closed 0.54% lower. But the Coles share price went the other way, adding 0.48% to $18.81 a share.

Sure, Coles has retreated from the all-time high of $19.28 a share that we saw at the start of this month. But the grocer still remains up 5% in 2022 so far, and around 3% over the past 12 months. In contrast, the ASX 200 is still nursing losses of around 7.5% for both of these periods.

But is there still gas in the tank for Coles shares after these periods of outperformance?

Well, if you ask one ASX broker, the answer is a decisive ‘yes’.

Coles shares picked as a buy by ASX experts

My Fool colleague James covered the opinions of ASX broker Citi earlier this week. Citi has recently retained its “buy” rating on the company and lifted its 12-month share price target to $21. if this came to pass, it would represent a potential upside of around 12% from where Coles is today.

Citi reckons Coles will enjoy boosted sales over FY 2023 thanks to the effects of rising inflation. This broker is also pencilling in a big lift in dividends to 75 cents per share for FY 2023, up from an expected 65 cents for FY 2022. Coles has already lifted its dividends substantially in recent years.

As my Fool colleague Brooke noted this week, Coles doled out 35.5 cents per share for FY 2019, 57.5 cents per share for FY 2020 and 61 cents for FY 2021.

If the supermarket operator indeed lifts its dividends to 75 cents per share for FY 2023, it would represent a forward yield of just over 4% (or 5.72% grossed-up with Coles’ typical full franking credits) at today’s pricing.

But Citi isn’t the only expert investor eyeing off the grocer right now. As we also covered this week, Dr Philipp Hofflin from Lazard Asset Management picked Coles as an ASX share that could be held in a difficult economic environment. This was due to the company’s lack of debt and “strong” balance sheet.

So it seems that more than one ASX expert is bullish on Coles’ future today. No doubt investors will welcome that news.

At the current Coles share price, this ASX 200 blue chip share has a market capitalisation of $25.05 billion, with a trailing dividend yield of 3.25%

The post Can Coles shares deliver 13% growth AND tasty dividends this year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Could this ASX 200 share be heading for a short squeeze?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• The A2 Milk share price has had a tough week. Could this other ASX dairy company cash in?
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Friday
• Is this why the NIB share price is lagging Medibank on Friday?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Australian share market is home to a number of high quality ASX growth shares.

Two that could be worth considering are listed below. Here’s what you need to know about them:

IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL)

The first ASX growth share that has been tipped as a buy is IDP Education. It is a leading provider of international student placement services and English language testing services.

Goldman Sachs is very positive on IDP Education’s outlook thanks to the recovery in the student placement market and structural growth drivers. The broker explained:

We see a compelling long-term growth opportunity with a number of drivers: Structural growth in multi-destination student placement markets; supplemented by ongoing recovery in the Australian market; Ability to grow market share in highly fragmented Canadian and UK SP markets; Reinvestment in digital capabilities to increase competitive advantage and strengthen relationships with tertiary institutions and; Consolidation of IELTs business and ability to supplement organic growth with bolt-on acquisitions.

Goldman has a buy rating and $35.50 price target on its shares. This compares favourably to the current IDP Education share price of $27.69.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Another ASX growth share that has been tipped as a buy is wine giant Treasury Wine.

Morgans is a big fan of the company and believes it is well-positioned for strong growth in the coming years. This is due to its world class portfolio of brands, its recent restructure, and its highly regarded management team. The broker also sees a lot of value in its shares at the current level.

Morgans explained:

TWE owns much loved iconic wine brands, the jewel in the crown being Penfolds. We rate its management team highly. The foundations are now in place for TWE to deliver strong earnings growth from the 2H22 over the next few years. Trading at a material discount to our valuation and other luxury brand owners, TWE is a key pick for us.

Its analysts currently have an add rating and $13.93 price target on the company’s shares. This compares to the latest Treasury Wine share price of $12.37.

The post Experts name 2 ASX growth shares to buy when the market reopens appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• ‘Back to a growth mindset’: Expert names ASX share ready to take off
• Treasury Wine share price up amid key China trademark win
• 2 excellent ASX growth shares to buy now according to brokers
• 3 ASX 200 shares to buy for a post-COVID resurgence: experts
• Winner winner chicken dinner: Expert names 2 ASX shares to buy now

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Idp Education Pty Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The term ‘short squeeze‘ might cause different reactions for different investors. Perhaps especially so when it comes to the JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) share price.

JB Hi-Fi has been one of the best-performing ASX 200 retail shares in recent years. In fact, JB Hi-Fi shareholders have enjoyed a roughly 400% return over the past 10 years from share price appreciation alone.

Throw in the company’s lucrative dividends and we probably have more than a few happy shareholders. But JB Hi-Fi has also been struggling more recently.

We saw the retailer hit a new all-time high of $56.85 a share back in March. But by mid-June, the company had hit a new 52-week low of $36.69. That’s a three-month slide of more than 33%.

Since June, the JB Hi-Fi share price has recovered substantially. It closed at $45.55 on Friday, up more than 30% from those June lows.

But let’s get to the ‘short squeeze’ part.

Why would JB Hi-Fi shares get short squeezed?

So according to reporting in The Australian today, short-seller interest in JB Hi-Fi shares has risen to 5.11% of the issued capital.

This prompted James Nicolaou, senior advisor at Shaw & Partners, to declare: “If recent history means anything, a big short squeeze [is likely and JB] stock is going higher… JBH has rallied higher every reporting day now for seven straight results”.

JB Hi-Fi is indeed scheduled to report its full-year results for FY2022 next Monday (15 August). Nicolaou is arguing that JB Hi-Fi shares consistently rise after company results are released, so the shares will be subject to a short squeeze because of the higher interest from short sellers.

Short selling a share refers to the practice of borrowing shares from another investor and selling them immediately, with the promise to buy them back and return them at a later date. If the sold shares fall in value between when they are sold and bought back, the shorter makes a profit.

A short squeeze can occur when a company’s share price rises. This rising price increases the risk of a short seller losing money on their short position. If the rise is substantial, it can force the short sellers to buy back the shares early and ‘cover’ their position to ensure they don’t lose even more money. This buying pressure can send the shares up even higher, creating the ‘squeeze’.

This is what Nicolaou is arguing could happen with JB Hi-Fi shares next week. But we’ll have to wait and see if this scenario plays out.

In the meantime, the last JB Hi-Fi share price of $45.55 gives this ASX 200 retailer a market capitalisation of $5.03 billion, with a dividend yield of 5.93%.

The post Could this ASX 200 share be heading for a short squeeze? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• The A2 Milk share price has had a tough week. Could this other ASX dairy company cash in?
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Friday
• Is this why the NIB share price is lagging Medibank on Friday?
• Down 20% since March, is this ASX 200 share a misunderstood investment opportunity?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Reporting season has arrived, and finally the market focus is on company performance rather than external factors beyond our control, like inflation and wars.

So, halfway through the month, which are the ASX shares that look attractive after their latest financials?

Morgans analysts had a couple of ideas:

The business that wins every time interest rates rise

Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU) already had an ‘add’ rating at Morgans, but the team has further lifted its future expectations after this week’s results.

“Computershare’s FY22 management EPS [earnings per share] was +10.6% on the pcp [prior corresponding period] and came in slightly above full-year guidance,” senior analyst Richard Coles said on the Morgans blog.

“With FY23 guidance for +55% EPS growth, interest rate leverage appears to trump other concerns near term, in our view.”

The ASX share is one of those unusual businesses that benefit from rising interest rates.

This is because it holds funds yet to be paid out to investors, such as dividends. Computershare invests that pool, with the returns going straight to its bottom line.

Morgans has upgraded Computershare’s 2023 and 2024 earnings forecasts by 9% to 13% to reflect “higher margin income assumptions going forward”.

“Computershare is a quality franchise that has delivered solid returns and consistent growth over time,” said Coles.

“The company remains well positioned to benefit from rising global interest rates, and initial signs from the Wells Fargo Corporate Trust acquisition remain positive.”

The Computershare stock price has gained 14.7% year-to-date.

‘One of the highest quality franchises’

Real estate classifieds provider REA Group Limited (ASX: REA) has also retained an ‘add’ recommendation at Morgans, even though earnings forecasts were lowered slightly.

“REA remains one of the highest quality franchises in our coverage,” said associate analyst Steven Sassine on the Morgans blog.

“And whilst FY23 may exhibit some volatility (e.g. macro impacts on listings volumes), we believe management has levers to potentially pull (e.g. yield) in such an environment.”

The financial result this week showed it was slightly ahead of consensus expectations for revenue, but “a slight miss” on earnings due to higher operational expenditure.

“The continued strength of the Australia residential business was a key highlight of the result in our view with revenue growth of +24% on pcp to ~$777 million.”

The REA share price has dipped almost 23% so far this year.

Fairmont Equities managing director Michael Gable also picked this ASX share as a buy earlier this week, citing how the share price seems to have passed the bottom.

“Mid-June, everyone was pricing in silly interest rates. What they’re pricing now isn’t so silly,” he said.

“It’s starting to make sense that we should get a bit of a recovery here.”

The post 2 ASX shares that Morgans would buy after excellent results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 3 rising ASX shares to buy that have passed the bottom: expert
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• Why A2 Milk, Appen, Boral, and REA shares are dropping today
• What’s going so wrong for ASX 200 tech shares on Wednesday?
• Guess which ASX 200 share just upped its dividend by 25%

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re looking to boost your income portfolio this month, then you may want to look at the shares listed below.

Here’s why these ASX dividend shares have been tipped as buys:

Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ)

The first ASX dividend share to consider next week is Bank of Queensland.

It is one of the largest banks outside the big four, comprising the eponymous Bank of Queensland brand and the ME Bank and Virgin Money Australia brands.

Bank of Queensland has been tipped as a buy by the team at Citi. While the broker suspects that rising rates could slow its revenue growth if lending volumes moderate, it expects cost synergies from the ME Bank acquisition to be supportive of earnings growth.

Citi has a buy rating and $8.75 price target on the bank’s shares.

In respect to dividends, the broker is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 46 cents in FY 2022 and then 50 cents per share in FY 2023. Based on the current Bank of Queensland share price of $7.59, this will mean yields of 6.1% and 6.6%, respectively.

Dicker Data Ltd (ASX: DDR)

Another ASX dividend share to look at next week is Dicker Data. It is a leading technology hardware, software, and cloud distributor.

This exceptionally well run company has been a real star of the ASX over the last decade. During this time, its shares have generated huge returns for investors. In fact, if you had invested $10,000 into Dicker Data’s shares 10 years ago, it would be worth $300,000 today.

These strong returns have been driven by the company’s consistently solid earnings and dividend growth, which has continued in FY 2022. For example, during the first half, the company expects to report a 36% increase in revenue to $1,459 million and an 11% lift in operating profit before tax to a record of $51 million (excluding acquisition costs).

Morgan Stanley is a big fan of the company and sees meaningful upside for its shares. It currently has an overweight rating and $14.00 price target on them.

In addition, the broker is expecting the company’s dividend to continue growing. It is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of 36.2 cents in FY 2022 and 42.2 cents in FY 2023. Based on the current Dicker Data share price of $11.45, this will mean yields of 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

The post Experts name 2 ASX dividend shares to buy next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Is the Bank of Queensland share price a smart ASX 200 bank buy?
• How to play ASX bank shares for dividends this reporting season: expert
• These ASX dividend shares have been named as buys for income investors
• Why is the Bank of Queensland share price getting a caning on Monday?
• Experts rate these high yield ASX dividend shares as buys

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Dicker Data Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Dicker Data Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re searching for growth shares to buy, then the tech sector could be a good place to start.

But which tech shares? Listed below are two ASX tech shares that are rated highly by analysts. Here’s what they are saying about them:

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

The first ASX tech share to look at is Life360. It is the company behind the world’s leading real time, location-sharing app which is used by over 38 million users.

Bell Potter likes the company due to its huge total addressable market and material cross selling opportunities. The broker also sees plenty of ways for the company to leverage and monetise its huge user base. It explained:

Life360 has the potential to leverage its large and growing user base to enter new markets and disrupt the legacy incumbents. An example is roadside assistance where Life360 launched a subscription-based product called Driver Protect which disrupted the market and helped enable monetisation of its user base. Other markets Life360 could potentially enter include insurance, item & pet tracking, senior monitoring, home security and/or identity theft.

And while Life360 isn’t profitable yet, the broker isn’t concerned by this. It highlights that the company is “expected to be operating cash flow positive from 4Q2023 and has more than sufficient cash to fund its operations till then.”

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $7.50 price target on the company’s shares.

Readytech Holdings Ltd (ASX: RDY)

Another ASX tech share to look at is enterprise software provider Readytech.

The team at Goldman Sachs believe that it could be a tech share to buy right now. This is due to the company’s strong position in defensive market verticals such as higher education and local government.

Goldman expects this to allow the company to continue growing organically at a solid rate in the coming years. The broker commented:

In our view, RDY will continue to grow mid-teens organically while making accretive acquisitions (such as IT Vision), with profitability underpinned by solid software metrics including low churn at ~3% and high LTV/CAC.

RDY serves defensive end markets (e.g. higher education, local government) and has high recurring revenue (>85%) which should protect the company’s earnings profile in an economic downturn.

Goldman Sachs has a buy rating and $4.60 price target on ReadyTech’s shares.

The post 2 exciting ASX tech shares to buy now according to analysts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360, Inc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360, Inc. and Readytech Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Readytech Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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I’m going to ask you to forget what you think you know.

This time about interest rates.

And only for the next few minutes.

See, rates are used, very reasonably and appropriately, to either stimulate the economy or to remove stimulus from the economy.

When interest rates rise, we have less money to spend elsewhere, and businesses will be less likely to take on riskier projects (only those with higher rates of return will go ahead).

When they fall, we can spend the savings, and businesses will invest in more projects.

It is, though imperfect, a very clever, useful and appropriate tool to stop economic troughs from being too deep and too long, and to avoid the worst of the irrational exuberance that tends to tip economies over the edge.

Yes, we can argue about the size and timing of interest rate changes.

I’ve argued that rates were too low, for too long, both post GFC and post-COVID-crash (it’s too early to say post-COVID, unfortunately).

I’ve also argued that central banks, globally, including our own RBA, were essentially asleep at the wheel as inflation roared back to life, waiting too long to raise rates.

But overall, these are smart, sensible, sober men and women doing their best to moderate the excesses of the economic cycle.

Perhaps my biggest criticism about using rates as an economic tool is that the burden – and reward – falls unfairly on some, leaving others largely unaffected.

Rate increases hurt borrowers, likely to be younger and with (relatively) lower incomes, because they’re earlier in their careers.

Higher income earners can more easily (if not happily!) absorb higher rates, while retirees and savers actually benefit.

Similarly, when rates fall, borrowers benefit (they can spend up big or, hopefully, pay off the mortgage quicker – the latter doesn’t help economic activity, though!), but savers get whacked.

To be clear, I have no dog in the fight, nor am I saying one group is more deserving than another – just that the good and bad effects of rate changes are far from universal or even one-directional!

It’s worth asking – as one of my podcast correspondents, Joe, did this week – whether we can find a better way.

And I think Joe might just be onto something.

Hear me (and him) out:

What if, rather than (only) using rates, we used the Superannuation Guarantee Levy, instead?

(For those playing at home, the SG contribution is the amount your employer legally has to contribute to your Super, currently 10.5% of wages or salary)

Now, let’s say we start when rates are back at a relatively neutral level.

And with the SG levy at its final legislated level of 12% of your pay.

Now, let’s say the economy starts to overheat. The RBA decides it needs to take some demand out.

It can raise interest rates, with the impact I described earlier.

But what if, instead, it raised the SG to 13%.

The government wouldn’t get any more money.

You wouldn’t lose any money.

You’d have less take-home pay, cooling the economy, but that reduction would be offset by being set aside for retirement.

Interesting idea, huh?

And of course, when the economy was weak, and more stimulus was needed, the RBA would drop the SG to, say, 11%, putting more money in your pocket. You could still save and invest the extra if you wanted to, but many people would happily spend the difference, boosting the economy.

Now, it’d be politically difficult. The usual suspects would bleat about it being ‘your money’ etc etc.

(But then, your take home pay is ‘your money’ and they don’t complain when interest rates go up, so we can put that in the ‘blind ideology’ basket where it belongs.)

Why do it?

Well, first, the money raised from higher rates wouldn’t go into the financial system, benefitting the rich few, but would go into your Super, benefitting ‘Future You’.

Second, the impact would be broader than just the roughly one-third of us who have a mortgage (and the 10-15% of us who most feel the pain, assuming many with a mortgage can more easily absorb the impact).

Yes, yes… there are a lot of reasons not to do it.

But most of those reasons might come down to versions of the ‘status quo’ bias.

Or, as my podcast co-host Andrew Page might put it, the lack of starting from first principles.

And yes, it isn’t perfect.

It wouldn’t impact the cost of business borrowing (for good and for ill). It wouldn’t address the level of relative interest rates, compared to our international trading partners, impacting the currency and foreign investment, among other things.

My point?

First, we shouldn’t do things just because it’s the way we’ve always done them, as Andrew would say.

And second, there are drawbacks in the current system, and there would be (different) drawbacks if we changed to a different approach.

But, of all of the options that bear considering, this one makes some sense, doesn’t it?

And should be thrown into the mix?

I think so.

It may not be the perfect solution. It may not even be better than the structures and levers we have now.

But I reckon it’s worth thinking it through, and comparing the risks and opportunities with other potential (and current) policy tools.

And a quick aside: if we are going to stick with using rates as the primary tool to influence the economic cycle, at the very bare minimum we should be tasking the banking regulator to offset the influence of rates on house prices (I’ll tell you how in a sec).

Rate movements are supposed to impact the level of spending and investment in the economy, not asset prices themselves.

The impact on asset values – in particular housing – is an unwelcome side effect which, ‘til now, has been tolerated.

But we needn’t accept or tolerate it, particularly on house prices.

And we have the – very simple – tool we need to stop it making housing a whipsawed plaything.

All the banking regulator, APRA, would need to do is increase the ‘lending buffer’ as rates fall, and raise it as they come down.

The buffer is what the banks use to tell us how much we can borrow. They’re obliged to use the current interest rate, then add a couple of percentage points to allow for rate rises. But the buffer could – should – be raised and lowered as circumstances require it.

The impact?

Our repayments would fall as rates drop, but banks would be forced to use a higher buffer, meaning the amount we could borrow would be essentially unchanged.

And our repayments would rise, as rates go up – but lowering the buffer at the same time would mean house prices wouldn’t be compressed artificially.

The result?

Housing prices would be more stable, befitting their role as, well, shelter, rather than financial playthings.

Which I reckon would be good for society.

So, there you have it: two ways governments and regulators could (potentially) improve the way our economy is run.

Worth due consideration, don’t you think?

Have a great weekend.

Fool on!

The post A fairer way to grow — and cool — the economy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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