Category: Stock Market

The Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price suffered last month amid rising interest rates and an update on the company’s strategy.

The Wesfarmers share price ended June 11.19% lower than it closed May, trading at $41.91.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) slipped 8.9% last month while Wesfarmers’ home sector – the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) – fell 7.3%.

Let’s take a look at what might have weighed on the ASX 200 retail-focused conglomerate behind the likes of Bunnings, Kmart, and Officeworks in June.

What dragged on the Wesfarmers share price in June?

The Wesfarmers share price continued its multi-month downturn in June, tumbling another 11%. That saw it trading 30% lower than it was at the start of 2022 as of the end of last month.

And rising interest rates and inflation are likely among the biggest weights on the stock this year.

Consumer discretionary shares were among those hardest hit when the Reserve Bank of Australia announced another rate rise in June. That saw the benchmark interest rate rise 0.5% to 0.85%.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe also flagged the possibility of further rate hikes this year.

The move will likely see Australians’ pockets feeling lighter and could spur a shift away from retail spending. That, in turn, could have damped sentiment for Wesfarmers shares.

The market also heard news from Wesfarmers last month. The company conducted a strategy briefing on 2 June.

An accompanying presentation outlines the company’s plans to expand its e-commerce offerings, Bunnings, API, and WesCEF.

The latter’s growth will be bolstered by additional spending on the company’s Mt Holland lithium project.

Wesfarmers also noted its inventory levels are higher than normal. That’s due to stockpiling in the face of supply chain disruptions during the first half.

It also looked to reassure the market of its ability to weather the current inflationary storm, saying:

Wesfarmers’ retail divisions are well equipped to manage inflationary pressures and view this as an opportunity to profitably grow share while extending value credentials.

The post Why did the Wesfarmers share price tumble 11% in June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• What’s the outlook for Wesfarmers shares in July?
• Experts name 2 ASX dividend shares to buy next week
• Broker names 3 of the best ASX shares to buy in July
• How does the Woolworths dividend compare to Wesfarmers over the last 5 years?
• Why I think the current Wesfarmers share price is a steal

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) share price had a difficult time in June, trading lower and lower as the month went on.

Investors pushed the Vulcan share price of $7.52 on 1 June to a low of $5 by 17 June. It had recovered slightly by month’s end but finished 28% down.

What’s up with the Vulcan share price?

Vulcan started the month poorly amid a bearish note from Goldman Sachs on its outlook for the lithium industry.

Goldman reckons battery metals’ have likely peaked and that prices could reverse at pace.

The research sent lithium shares spiralling in early June, despite no change to company forecasts.

Vulcan was hit hard on the chart alongside its peers with exposure to the sector.

The share continued to track lower and by 14 June had reached 52-week lows as inflation data and interest-rate pressures began to weigh on ASX shares.

By month’s end, the trend had set in and sentiment had no doubt turned bearish, in lockstep with the tone in just about all markets. Weakness in the United States also appeared to have an impact.

On 29 June investors were selling down the Vulcan share price “amid broad market weakness following a poor night of trade on Wall Street,” The Motley Fool reported.

Vulcan is a “higher risk share,” The Motley Fool says, and investors are lowering “their risk appetite following a resurgence in recession fears”.

In the last 12 months, the Vulcan share price has collapsed more than 31% into the red.

The post Why did the Vulcan Energy share price crater 28% in June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Down 8%, why is the Vulcan Energy share price burning away today?
• How is the Vulcan share price performing against its sector this month?
• 3 ASX All Ordinaries shares going gangbusters on Friday
• Why Betmakers, Block, Lake Resources, and Vulcan shares are racing higher
• ASX 200 midday update: Qantas’ market update, lithium shares rebound

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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At lunch on Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to start the week with a strong gain. The benchmark index is currently up 1.4% to 6,630.1 points.

Here’s what is happening on the ASX 200 today:

Suncorp’s update

The Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) share price is underperforming on Monday despite confirming that its natural hazard claims were in line with guidance in FY 2022. Suncorp revealed that it dealt with 35 separate events and over 120,000 natural hazard claims, at an expected cost of around $1.1 billion, net of reinsurance recoveries. This is in line with previous guidance and reflected the prevailing La Niña weather pattern.

Magellan shares tumble

The Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) share price has taken a tumble on Monday. Investors appear to have been selling the fund manager’s shares amid heavy insider selling from co-founder Hamish Douglass. Throughout June, Douglass offloaded approximately 760,000 Magellan shares. They have a current market value in the region of $9.4 million.

Breville completes acquisition

The Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) share price is charging higher today. This follows the announcement of the completion of the LELIT acquisition. The appliance maker is paying a total of $140 million in cash and shares to acquire the premium prosumer home coffee equipment company. Key members of the LELIT management team, including the founders, have joined Breville and its integration is underway.

Best and worst ASX 200 performers

The best performer on the ASX 200 on Monday has been the New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) share price with a 6% gain. This follows a rise in the coal price on Friday. Going the other way, the worst performer has been the Pointsbet Holdings Ltd (ASX: PBH) share price with a 6% decline. This may have been driven by profit taking after some strong recent gains.

The post ASX 200 midday update: Suncorp’s update, Magellan sinks appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• South32 crashes into bear market in June as recession fears bite
• June was a terrible month for ASX 200 bank shares. Here’s why
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• The Xero share price lost 14% last month. Here’s the tea
• Here are the top 10 ASX shares today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX travel shares were a mixed bag in June. Some names came out on top whilst others booked substantial losses.

It seems people are flying in greater numbers, alongside positive trends in cargo. This means profits look set to return to the travel and airline industries in 2023.

However, looking at the performances of these three prominent ASX travel shares in June, you wouldn’t know it.

Let’s check the performances of Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN), Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX: FLT), and Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) below:

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT)

Shares of Flight Centre took a hard landing in June and slipped from a high of $20.67 on 8 June to bottom at $17 a week later

By month’s end, the Flight Centre share price had closed at $17.36, more than 16% down from the beginning of June.

Flight Centre is also Citi’s worst ASX 200 travel buy at the moment, according to The Australian, as cited by The Motley Fool.

The broker says Flight Centre could likely face headwinds due to slower international travel volumes out of Australia and so-called ‘VFR’ (visiting friends and relatives) travel.

It rates the share a sell and values the company at $15.55 apiece in the process.

Webjet Ltd (ASX: WEB)

Shares of Webjet arrived at a similar destination in June and traded 12% down across the month.

Despite a quiet month out of Webjet’s camp, investors sold off shares in tandem with weakness in both the sector and broader market.

Nonetheless, Webjet is still the favourite ASX travel play from the team of analysts at Citi.

The Citi team reckons Webjet has the best business model to perform in the current macroeconomic landscape.

Specifically, the business-to-consumer B2C division is the company’s strong point, Citi says.

This could be important considering the number of external influences currently plaguing equity markets.

The broker is also constructive on Webjet’s business-to-business (B2B) segment, noting this is the highest margin segment.

It values Webjet at $6.94 per share, rating it a buy.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Investors in Qantas shares also suffered a hard landing in June with the share price falling from $5.53 on 1 June to six-month lows of $4.36 by 17 June.

At the time of writing, Qantas has clawed back some ground, trading up 2.02% at $4.54.

The share displayed weakness alongside a downturn in the broader market, joining its fellow ASX travel shares on the way down.

It now trades below its pre-COVID price levels, having failed to recover to its pre-pandemic highs.

The Citi team is also cautious on Qantas, noting the airline is likely to face pressures on pricing power and competition within the space.

It values the company at $5.46 per share and is neutral on the stock.

The post How did ASX travel shares perform in June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• ASX 200 travel shares leap as Australia scraps COVID-19 vaccine mandates for international arrivals
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Here’s why I think the Webjet share price could fly higher in 2022
• Why did the Flight Centre share price tumble 15% in June?
• Why did the Qantas share price plunge 19% in June?

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Travel shares on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) are jumping today amid news that will make it easier for tourists to travel to Australia.

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN), Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares are all rising today.

Webjet shares are rising 2.08% today, Flight Centre shares are leaping 2.18% and Qantas shares are up 2.25%.

So what could be impacting ASX 200 travel shares today?

ASX 200 travel shares lift

ASX 200 travel shares are lifting amid news that could boost international travel numbers into Australia.

Health Minister Mark Butler announced yesterday that a COVID-19 vaccine will no longer be required for international tourists travelling to Australia. All travellers will also no longer be required to declare their status on arrival to the country. However, masks will still be required on inbound international flights.

Minister Butler said:

The chief medical officer has advised it is no longer necessary for travellers to declare their vaccine status as part of our management of COVID

Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil described the news as “great news for families coming home from school holidays”.

Removing these requirements will not only reduce delays in our airports but will encourage more visitors and skilled workers to choose Australia as a destination.

I know anyone who has travelled internationally since the borders have opened will find this as one less thing to worry about – especially as more Australians get back to travelling overseas.

Meanwhile, chaos erupted at Sydney airport on the weekend as Australians embark on school holiday travel, Guardian Australia reported.

Large amounts of people were seen lining up outside the terminal, the publication reported. Union strikes also had an impact on arrivals at airport train stations.

Sydney airport is crazy this morning. Check in is completely packed and bag drop line is out the door and spilling into an undercover area next to the terminal. pic.twitter.com/nJGp0z207r

— Molly Glassey (@GlasseyMolly) July 1, 2022

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Meanwhile, Adelaide Airport is also forecasting that Friday this week will be the busiest travel day since the onset of COVID-19, Indaily reports. The airport is predicting 30,000 travellers at the airport on Friday.

Share price recap

The Qantas share price has shed 5% in a year, while Webjet shares have jumped nearly 6%. Flight Centre shares have soared 15% in a year.

For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 9% in the past year.

The post ASX 200 travel shares leap as Australia scraps COVID-19 vaccine mandates for international arrivals appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• How did ASX travel shares perform in June?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Here’s why I think the Webjet share price could fly higher in 2022
• Why did the Flight Centre share price tumble 15% in June?
• Why did the Qantas share price plunge 19% in June?

Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price has been struggling since the start of April. Despite this, the lithium explorer’s shares have soared in FY22.

Since market open on 1 July 2021, the Lake Resources share price surged from 33 cents to 78.5 cents on 30 June 2022. This represents a 138% gain.

Let’s take a look at how the financial year played out for Lake Resources.

Brilliant start to the financial year

The Lake Resources share price hit a high of $2.45 on 4 April. This was a mammoth 642% explosion on the share price at the start of the financial year.

Lake’s flagship project is Kachi in the Catamarca Province in Argentina. The company has ambitions to become a leading global producer of high-purity lithium.

On 7 July 2021, Lake announced drilling was underway at the Kachi project. The company stated the aim was to double production from the site. In late July, Lake offered eligible shareholders bonus options.

Strong quarterly results on 2 August also provided a boost to the Lake Resources share price. During the quarter, Lake garnered interest from six major banks willing to fund the Kachi project.

In late December, Lake advised drilling supported a doubling of lithium carbonate production to 50,000 tonnes per annum:

Argentina continues to be one of the few locations where lithium production can increase to assist the
significant supply gap to increasing demand.

On 14 February, Lake revealed it would fast-track three lithium projects in Argentina. These are the Olaroz, Cauchari and Paso projects. Lake set a target of 100,000 tonnes of high purity lithium by 2030 from these projects.

Tough few months to end FY22

Lake shares plummeted nearly 68% between market close on 4 April and 30 June. Between close of trading on 16 June and 23 June alone, the company’s share price shed 58%. On 20 June, news emerged that North America managing director Steve Promnitz would step down after setting up “Lake’s dominant position in Argentina”. Stu Crow was appointed executive chair for six months to manage the transition to a new CEO, board, and set up a North American presence. Lake said:

We are now establishing a North American presence to serve our off-take customers, continue to
work with our US-based technology partner, and engage capital markets.

Also potentially impacting Lake shares was a note from Goldman Sachs predicting lithium carbonate and spodumene concentrate prices to decline from 2023. Goldman predicted a long-term average of US$11,500 per tonne for lithium carbonate and US$800 per tonne for spodumene concentrate.

In more positive news, Lake Resources was added to the ASX 200 at the start of June. The company also appointed Citi and JP Morgan to coordinate debt financing for the Kachi project. On 11 April, Lake signed a non-binding agreement with the Ford Motor Company to negotiate lithium offtake for the project.

Lake has a goal of producing 100,000 tonnes per annum of lithium by 2030.

Lake Resources share price recap

At the current share price of 79 cents, the Lake Resources share price has soared 129% in a year. Although it has lost nearly 22% year to date. In the past month, Lake shares have leapt 45%, while they are down almost 2% in a week.

In the past five years, Lake shares have returned a mammoth 1,800% boost to shareholders.

The post Up 138% in a year and 1800% in five years. Why did the Lake Resources share price soar in FY22? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• The Lake Resources share price plummeted 49% in June. Here’s why
• These were the worst performing ASX 200 shares in June
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Thursday
• Why have ASX lithium shares had such a lousy month in June?
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Wednesday

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has broken into the green and trades 1.1% higher in morning trade on Monday.

Indeed, with a new month comes a new set of monthly returns. After some volatility in recent weeks, investors look to embark on a new set of investment conditions in July.

One All Ordinaries share that’s taken off today is Volpara Health Technologies Ltd (ASX: VHT). Its share price is tracing 17.02% higher from the open at 55 cents.

Investors are jumping on the breast-screening software company’s shares following a company announcement of a new contract win.

Indeed, Volpara’s management says revenue from the contract “will be material” to the company.

What did Volpara announce?

Volpara advised it has signed a contract with Radnet Management, Inc. for an initial contract period of 42 months. The contract has a mutual option to extend.

The company says Radnet is the largest provider of outpatient imaging services in the United States with 353 imaging centres and 9,000 employees.

Under the agreement, Radnet will implement the Australian company’s Volpara Analytics and Volpara Risk Pathways software throughout its various sites.

The company’s announcement said:

Planning for the implementation has begun, with go-live projected in 2023.

Management expects that revenue generated under the agreement will be material to the company.

Speaking on the announcement, Volpara’s CEO Teri Thomas was “pleased to partner” with Radnet. She said:

This is a broader partnership than a simple software purchase. We look forward to a deep engagement with Radnet as part of our focus on industry impacts and customer success of ‘elephant-sized’ industry leaders.

In the last 12 months, the Volpara share price has slipped around 57% into the red.

The post This ASX All Ordindaries healthcare share is ripping 17% higher amid a new contract win appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here’s where I’d invest $3,000 into ASX growth shares today

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended VOLPARA FPO NZ. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended VOLPARA FPO NZ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) share price is edging higher today following a market update from the company.

At the time of writing, the infant formula company’s shares are fetching at 64.5 cents apiece, up 4.03%.

Let’s take a look at what management provided to the ASX this morning.

What did Bubs announce?

In its update released to the ASX, Bubs advised it entered into supply agreements with two new retail groups.

This comes ahead of the fourth plane delivery to the United States scheduled on 6 July under the Operation Fly Formula. Management noted that all 90,000 baby formula tins onboard worth $3 million in gross revenue have been presold.

The supply agreements are with a supermarket chain based in Texas, H-E-B Grocery Company, and American supercentre chain, Meijer.

Furthermore, 22 state agencies in the US have authorised Bubs Infant Formula products as suitable under the WIC program.

The WIC program is a special subsidy supplement nutrition program from the United States Government for women, infants and children.

Evidently, this opens the door for Bubs products to hit more retailers across the country.

On another note, management noted that Bubs infant formula products will receive the benefit of tariff concessions under the AUSFTA Agreement.

This comes after the United States and Australian Government held discissions surrounding the correct tariff classification of Bubs Infant Formula products.

Bubs founder and CEO, Kristy Carr commented:

We are grateful for the opportunity to assist parents under the WIC Program. As Bubs continues to replenish retailer shelves with up to six Bubs Infant Formula products, it is comforting that many more American parents will have the opportunity to access our clean nutrition that is and will continue to be available on shelves.

We are thankful to the U.S. and Australian Government for their assistance in helping us understand our tariff obligations. It is great to see that the strong trade relations and reciprocal recognition of food standards between the two countries have reflected in greater market access for our category, particularly during this time of crisis for American families.

Bubs share price summary

Despite a difficult 12 months amid COVID-led channel disruptions, the Bubs share price has gained 40% over the period.

The company’s shares touched a 52-week high of 86 cents on the back of the supply agreement with the United States.

However, since then, its shares have retraced due to market volatility across the ASX which weighed down Bubs shares.

Based on valuation grounds, Bubs commands a market capitalisation of around $379.92 million.

The post Why is the Bubs share price taking off today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Best ASX shares to buy in July 2022
• Bubs share price drops despite new Target deal
• Where to find value in growth? Here are 2 ASX shares I’d buy in July
• Why ANZ, Block, Bubs, and PayGroup shares are pushing higher
• Bubs share price up 4% on further US update

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BUBS AUST FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Block Inc (ASX: SQ2) share price has started the week strongly.

In late morning trade, the payments company’s shares are up over 5% to $92.57.

Why is the Block share price charging higher?

Investors have been bidding the Block share price higher today following a rebound in the tech sector.

This follows a solid night of trade for tech stocks on Wall Street on Friday, which saw the company’s NYSE listed shares rise 4%.

The Block share price then edged slightly higher in after hours trade to end the week at US$63.99.

Based on current exchange rates, that would equate to approximately $94.10 for its ASX listed shares, which is a touch ahead of where they trade currently.

It isn’t just Block that is trading higher today in the tech sector. The S&P ASX All Technology index is up 1% at the time of writing thanks to gains from the likes of WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) and Xero Limited (ASX: XRO).

However, despite this rise, the S&P ASX All Technology index remains down by a disappointing 37% since the start of the year.

The post Why is the Block share price racing 5% higher? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Should investors zero in on the Xero share price in July?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• The Xero share price lost 14% last month. Here’s the tea
• What on earth happened to ASX 200 tech shares in June?
• Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

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This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The stock market just wrapped up its worst first half in more than 50 years. The benchmark S&P 500 index is down 21% so far in 2022, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index is down by 30%. And many of the most widely held stocks in the market are down by 50% or more this year, especially those of fast-growing businesses.

Amid all the volatility, every investor has the same question: When will things start to get better?

While none of us have a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future, the answer to that question will be directly connected to the issues that have caused the market’s decline so far this year. Let’s lay those out, and consider the potential catalysts that could cause it to rebound — or move even lower — in the second half.

Why has the stock market fallen so steeply this year?

In a nutshell, we’ve had a perfect storm of negative catalysts. Let’s run through some of the biggest.

Inflation: After many central bankers and economists repeatedly assured us that any surges in inflation caused by the pandemic’s secondary effects would be “transitory,” we’ve all come to realize that’s not the case. U.S. inflation is at its highest level since the early 1980s, and the Federal Reserve is aggressively trying to get it back under control. This has led to fears that its fiscal tightening will trigger a recession. 

Rising interest rates: In its inflation-fighting efforts, the Fed has raised benchmark interest rates significantly from their pandemic lows of near zero, and this has driven consumer interest rates upward too. For example, the average rate for a new 30-year mortgage has increased from about 3% at the beginning of the year to just under 6% now. So, not only is inflation making things cost more, but borrowing has become far more expensive.

Declining consumer confidence: When consumers don’t feel confident about the economy, they spend less money. That’s bad for business. And according to the latest report from the Conference Board, consumer confidence is at its lowest level in almost 10 years.

War: Growth stocks had been under pressure since late 2021, but there’s a solid case to be made that the event that triggered the broad market decline was when Russia invaded Ukraine. The short explanation is that markets hate uncertainty, and wars in economically vital regions bring a lot of uncertainty to the table. 

There are other factors in play as well, such as ongoing supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and wage pressures on businesses, just to name a few.

Catalysts that could move the market in the second half

It’s important to realize the stock market is largely a forward-looking indicator. In other words, the price of stocks doesn’t necessarily reflect the current state of things, but what the market expects the state of things will be. And this is true for individual stocks as well.

Right now, investors expect inflation to run hot for the foreseeable future. The market expects that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by another 175 basis points or more by the end of this year alone. There’s no end in sight for the war in Ukraine. The market expects consumer spending to decline. And the market is starting to expect a recession to begin in the near future.

So if any of these things turn out better than the market expects, it could lead to a rebound in the second half of 2022. For example, if the data clearly starts to show inflation has peaked and is beginning to decline, it could trigger a market rally. If the Ukraine conflict gets resolved, investors could breathe a sigh of relief. You get the idea.

It’s important to recognize that the opposite is true as well. For example, if U.S. inflation — currently in the 8% to 9% range year over year — spikes into the double-digit percentages, it could result in another downward move for the broad market.

Keep your eye on the long term

The bottom line is that while we know what catalysts would be generally positive or negative for the stock market, we have no idea if and when they will actually happen. So there’s simply no way to predict with any degree of accuracy what the stock market will do for the rest of the year.

This is why we are so steadfast in our advice that long-term investing is the smart way to go. The stock market is down 21% so far this year and it could certainly fall even further if things don’t go well in the near term. But historically speaking, investing during the periods that follow market drops of 20% or more has worked out very well from a long-term perspective. I have absolutely no idea what the stock market will do over the next six months. But I have every confidence that in 20 years, it will be much higher than it is today. 

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

The post Down 21%, is the stock market ready to recover in the back half of 2022? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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