Category: Stock Market

The Atlas Arteria Ltd (ASX: ALX) share price is in focus today after the company reported Q4 2025 proportionate toll revenue up 9.5% on last year, with full-year revenue also climbing 9.4% thanks to steady traffic and higher tolls across key assets.

What did Atlas Arteria report?

• Q4 2025 proportionate toll revenue rose 9.5% compared to Q4 2024
• Full-year 2025 proportionate toll revenue increased 9.4% year-on-year
• APRR quarterly revenue up 1.5%, annual revenue up 2.8% (EUR terms)
• Chicago Skyway quarterly toll revenue up 10%, annual up 6.2% (USD terms)
• Traffic rose on Dulles Greenway (Q4 up 4.8%; year up 8.2%), and A79 (Q4 up 7.5%; year up 10.5%)
• Warnow Tunnel traffic fell 9.8% in Q4, revenue down 5.6% (EUR terms)

What else do investors need to know?

Steady economic conditions in France and a recovery in cross-border work permits to Geneva helped drive light vehicle traffic on major French assets. The company noted robust commuter flows, with Swiss permits up 2.9% for Geneva in the September quarter.

In the US, Chicago Skyway saw a bounce-back in both light and heavy vehicle usage after the prior period’s roadworks and tariff announcements. Dulles Greenway overcame disruptions from a six-week US federal government shutdown, returning to pre-shutdown traffic growth.

Toll revenue growth benefited from toll price increases across most businesses as well as favourable foreign exchange movements. On a constant currency basis, proportionate toll revenue grew around 2.2% for Q4 and 3.0% for the full year.

What’s next for Atlas Arteria?

Atlas Arteria continues to focus on disciplined management of its international toll road assets, with plans to leverage network upgrades, pricing, and customer service enhancements. The business emphasises operational efficiency and sustainable practices across its European and North American assets.

Looking ahead, the company aims to drive value by responding to regional traffic patterns, optimising toll structures, and adapting to changing commuter needs, including ongoing infrastructure maintenance and upgrades.

Atlas Arteria share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Altas Arteria shares have declined 1%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

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The post Atlas Arteria shares: Q4 2025 toll revenue jumps 9.5% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Resmed posts Q2 FY26 earnings growth, lifts dividend
• Nine Entertainment shakes up portfolio: QMS buy, radio sale, and digital focus
• PLS Group books 49% revenue leap and strong cash flow in December quarter earnings
• The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to!

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The war between Australian supermarket giants Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) doesn’t stop on the shelves; it extends into the sharemarket too. Shares of both retailers are neck and neck this year, but who comes out on top when it comes to the outlook for the remainder of 2026?

What’s the outlook for Woolworths shares this year?

At the close of the ASX on Thursday afternoon, Woolworths shares were up 0.59% to $30.59 a piece. For the year to date, the retailer’s shares are up 3.94% and the stock is now 0.26% above trading levels this time last year.

The supermarket giant’s shares crashed nearly 20% in August last year after it posted a disappointing FY25 result. The stock dropped to an all-time low of $25.91 a piece in mid-October but was saved from any further decline after the company posted a more positive first-quarter sales update.

The business is well established and one of the largest in Australia, and this dominance maintains its competitive position in the retail space.

Analysts are divided about Woolworths shares right now. TradingView data shows that 7 out of 17 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The other 10 analysts have a hold rating.

The average target price is $30.70 a piece, which implies a 0.37% upside at the time of writing. The maximum target price is $37 per share, which implies a potential 20.95% increase for investors this year.

What’s the outlook for Coles shares this year?

At the close of the ASX on Thursday afternoon, Coles shares were up 0,29% to $21.05 a piece. For the year to date, Coles shares have slid 1.36% but they’re still 7.73% above trading levels seen this time last year.

Coles’ 2025 growth strategy paid off. The business posted a strong quarterly update in late October, where it reported a 3.9% increase in group sales and overall results in line with analyst expectations. 

The supermarket giant could face some headwinds from inflation and cost-of-living pressures this year, but the stock is very defensive and the business is well-positioned to be resilient among pressures. 

Analysts are pretty positive about Coles shares. TradingView data shows that 10 out of 17 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The other 7 analysts have a hold rating.

The average target price is $23.64 per share, which implies a 12.32% upside at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the maximum target price of $25.50 implies a potential 21.14% upside ahead for investors, using the current share price.

And the winner is…

At a maximum of 21.14%, Coles shares have a larger maximum potential upside than Woolworths shares in 2026, according to analysts. Its business has strengthened over the past year, and sentiment about the company’s potential is much more positive. Between the two supermarket giants, I’d say Coles has the upper hand right now. 

The post Coles vs Woolworths shares: Which supermarket giant has the biggest upside for 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) share price is in focus today as the agribusiness outlined resilient financial results for FY25, highlighted by underlying EBIT growth to $143.5 million and continued dividend stability at 36 cents per share.

What did Elders report?

• Sales revenue grew to $3.2 billion, up 2.2% from FY24
• Gross margin increased to $684.6 million (21.4%)
• Underlying EBIT rose to $143.5 million (up from $128.0 million)
• Underlying net profit after tax climbed to $86.0 million, a 34% improvement
• Dividend held steady at 36.0 cents per share (100% franked)
• Leverage ratio decreased to 1.8 times (excluding AASB 16), with a strong target for FY26

What else do investors need to know?

Elders delivered growth despite challenging seasonal conditions, with dry weather affecting retail product results in South Australia and Victoria. Diversification across Agency, Real Estate, and Feed & Processing supported revenue and margin improvements.

The year saw eight acquisitions completed, including Delta Agribusiness, which enhances Elders’ regional footprint. A new divisional structure was implemented to drive sharper focus and operational accountability.

Cash generation was strong, with operating cash flow at $117.9 million and cash conversion exceeding 137%. Management maintained cost growth below inflation, supporting ongoing profitability.

What’s next for Elders?

Elders expects its leverage to return to below 2.0 times in FY26 as working capital initiatives and improved seasonal conditions take effect. Management’s focus is on extracting synergies from recent acquisitions—particularly Delta Agribusiness—and expanding backward integration to drive margin gains.

The company’s strategic ‘Eight Point Plan’ continues to target 5–10% EBIT and EPS growth through the cycle and a return on capital above 15%. Elders is also investing in technology, operational discipline, and sustainable growth across all business divisions to reinforce its position as Australia’s most trusted rural brand.

Elders share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, the Elders shares have risen 2%, underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

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The post Elders FY25 earnings: resilient profit and strategic growth appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Atlas Arteria shares: Q4 2025 toll revenue jumps 9.5%
• Resmed posts Q2 FY26 earnings growth, lifts dividend
• Nine Entertainment shakes up portfolio: QMS buy, radio sale, and digital focus
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• The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to!

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Resmed CDI (ASX: RMD) share price is in focus after the company reported second quarter revenue up 11% to $1.4 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 15% to $2.68.

What did Resmed report?

• Revenue rose 11% year-over-year to $1,422.8 million (up 9% in constant currency).
• Gross margin increased by 320 basis points to 61.8% (non-GAAP: 62.3%).
• Income from operations grew 18% to $491.7 million (non-GAAP: up 19%).
• Net income came in at $392.6 million, up 14% from the prior year period.
• Diluted earnings per share were $2.68 (non-GAAP: $2.81), up 15% and 16% respectively.
• Quarterly dividend declared at US$0.60 per share; $88 million returned to shareholders.

What else do investors need to know?

Resmed’s second quarter growth was fuelled by robust demand for its sleep and respiratory care devices. Sales improved across most regions, with the US, Canada and Latin America seeing an 11% rise, and Europe and Asia posting 6% constant currency growth (excluding software).

The company reported a $6 million restructuring-related charge, linked to finalising workforce planning initiatives started earlier in the year. Despite slightly higher selling and administration costs, Resmed delivered strong operating cash flow of $340 million and continued its buyback program, repurchasing $175 million in shares.

What’s next for Resmed?

Heading into the second half of FY26, Resmed plans to increase investment in digital health solutions and innovation, aiming to expand global access to home-based care. The company is strategically focused on scaling up its AI-enabled technology, following recent FDA clearance for its Smart Comfort device.

Management maintains a goal of sustainable, profitable growth supported by further product development and capital returns, with continued emphasis on research, operational efficiencies, and global market expansion.

Resmed share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Resmed shares have declined 10%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Resmed posts Q2 FY26 earnings growth, lifts dividend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Atlas Arteria shares: Q4 2025 toll revenue jumps 9.5%
• Elders FY25 earnings: resilient profit and strategic growth
• Nine Entertainment shakes up portfolio: QMS buy, radio sale, and digital focus
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• The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to!

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) share price is in focus this morning, following news of a strategic shake-up. Nine is acquiring digital outdoor media platform QMS Media for $850 million, while offloading its radio assets and transitioning its regional TV station NBN to affiliate status. Digital growth businesses are expected to generate over 60% of revenue by FY27, up from about 45% in FY25.

What did Nine report?

• Acquisition of QMS Media for $850 million (cash and debt free basis), with completion targeted before 30 June 2026.
• Sale of Nine’s radio assets for $56 million and conversion of NBN to affiliate under WIN Network for $15 million.
• Net one-off cash tax loss benefits of approximately $178 million, offsetting tax from a previous Domain stake sale.
• Pro forma EBITDA contribution of $113 million from these transactions in CY26, with an implied multiple of 5.3x.
• EPS accretion forecast: marginally positive pre-synergies and low double-digit percent including synergies in FY26.
• Expected unfranked dividends for FY26 and part of FY27 due to tax loss utilisation reducing available franking credits.

What else do investors need to know?

Nine’s asset reshuffle means future growth will be more heavily anchored in fast-growing, resilient digital segments, including Streaming, Outdoor and Publishing. The acquisition of QMS, a digital outdoor market leader, adds significant scale and a complementary revenue stream to Nine’s portfolio.

The Group expects cost savings of up to $20 million a year from integrating QMS, particularly through shared back-end operations and procurement. On the flip side, the sale of the lower-growth radio and regional TV businesses will allow Nine to focus on its core metro and digital assets. Nine’s leverage will rise temporarily to about 1.8x but is anticipated to revert to its target range (1.0x–1.5x) by the end of FY27.

What did Nine management say?

Matt Stanton, CEO, said:

Today’s announcements mark a critical milestone in our Nine2028 transformation. These transactions will create a more efficient, higher-growth, and digitally powered Nine Group for our consumers, advertisers, shareholders and people. This positions Nine well for the future, enabling the Group to withstand industry disruption and deliver long-term sustainable value to our shareholders.

What’s next for Nine?

Nine is accelerating its transition into a digital-first media business. Management sees significant opportunities from cross-platform advertising, greater operational efficiency, and bundled offerings for advertisers. The addition of QMS is expected to add new capabilities and help Nine diversify revenue further.

Nine continues to guide to EBITDA growth in H1 FY26 and expects its balance sheet to strengthen post-2027 after realising transaction-related tax benefits. Investors should note dividends will temporarily be unfranked due to reduced franking credits, but the company remains committed to a 60–80% payout ratio of net profit before significant items.

Nine share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Nine Entertainment shares have declined 20%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Nine Entertainment shakes up portfolio: QMS buy, radio sale, and digital focus appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Atlas Arteria shares: Q4 2025 toll revenue jumps 9.5%
• Elders FY25 earnings: resilient profit and strategic growth
• Resmed posts Q2 FY26 earnings growth, lifts dividend
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• The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to!

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price was under pressure on Thursday.

The mining and mining services company’s shares ended the day almost 4% lower at $61.02.

This followed the release of the company’s second quarter update.

While this decline is disappointing, it could have created a buying opportunity for investors according to analysts at Bell Potter.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter was pleased with the company’s performance during the quarter, noting that iron ore, lithium, and mining services volumes were ahead of expectations. It said:

MIN reported quarterly attributable sales above our estimates, including: Onslow iron ore 4.8Mt (BP est. 4.6Mt); Pilbara Hub iron ore 2.4Mt (BP est. 2.0Mt); Wodgina SC6e 76kt (BP est. 60kt); and Mt Marion SC6e 67kt (BP est. 42kt). Mining Services volumes were 85Mt (BP est. 81Mt; 1Q FY26 81Mt) with ramp-up at third party sites. In 1H FY26, Onslow FOB costs were A$52/t (FY26 guidance A$54-59/t) and group capex $600m, expected to trend lower in 2H (FY26 guidance $1,140m). At 31 December 2025, MIN had net debt of $4.9b and available liquidity of $1.4b, $0.5b and $0.3b improvements on the prior quarter, respectively.

The broker was also pleased to see that Mineral Resources is looking to take advantage of the strength in lithium prices by upgrading its production guidance for FY 2026. It adds:

MIN has upgraded FY26 SC6e sales volume guidance by 17% and 18% (midpoint) at Wodgina and Mt Marion, respectively, highlighting strong operational flexibility that enables the company to capitalise on improved lithium prices. All other FY26 guidance metrics are maintained.

The midpoints of guidance point to substantially lower attributable group SC6e sales in 2H (184kt SC6e vs 286kt in 1H) across its operations as mining moves into areas with greater ore variability. Persistent lithium market prices and operational execution could result in further upgrades to SC6e guidance, with MIN receiving the full value uplift prior to completion of the US$765m POSCO selldown scheduled to complete in the current half.

Could the Mineral Resources share price hit $70.00?

According to the note, Bell Potter believes the company’s shares are heading to the $70.00 mark.

It has retained its buy rating with an improved price target of $70.00 (from $68.00). Based on the current Mineral Resources share price, this implies potential upside of 15% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

Completion of the $1.2b MIN-POSCO lithium transaction will accelerate balance sheet deleveraging paired with higher cash flows from the ramp-up of Onslow iron ore sales. MIN is positioned to benefit from current lithium market pricing strength, holding around 268ktpa (SC6 attributable, pre-POSCO deal completion) of offline spodumene production capacity. MIN’s mining services platform delivers a stable earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth.

The post Is the Mineral Resources share price going to hit $70.00 this year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

PLS Group (ASX: PLS), formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, is in focus today as the company delivered a 49% jump in quarterly revenue to $373 million and reported a strong cash balance of $954 million.

What did PLS Group report?

• Revenue rose 49% on the prior quarter to $373 million
• Sales volumes increased 8% to 232,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate
• Average realised sales price surged 57% to US$1,161/tonne (SC5.2 basis, CIF China)
• Cash operating margin from operations was $166 million, up from $8 million
• Cash balance grew 12% over the quarter to $954 million as at 31 December 2025
• Unit operating cost (FOB) increased 8% to $585 per tonne

What else do investors need to know?

PLS Group continues to optimise operations at its Pilgangoora mine, delivering in line with its production plan despite recent lithium market volatility. The company completed construction of its mid-stream demonstration plant and is reviewing timelines for key growth projects including the Pilgangoora P2000 expansion and the Colina Project in Brazil.

Its lithium hydroxide joint venture facility in South Korea remains idled, with spodumene redirected to other customers while the market stabilises. The board is set to decide on a potential restart of the Ngungaju processing plant in the March quarter.

What’s next for PLS Group?

Looking ahead, PLS Group is keeping its growth options open while remaining disciplined on costs and capital allocation. The company expects to update investors on the feasibility study for its next production expansion and on the timing for restarting the Ngungaju plant in the coming months.

With a strong financial position and steady operational delivery, PLS Group is well placed to benefit as long-term demand for lithium recovers, driven by energy storage and electric vehicle adoption.

PLS Group share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, PLS Group shares have risen 97%, strongly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post PLS Group books 49% revenue leap and strong cash flow in December quarter earnings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Atlas Arteria shares: Q4 2025 toll revenue jumps 9.5%
• Elders FY25 earnings: resilient profit and strategic growth
• Resmed posts Q2 FY26 earnings growth, lifts dividend
• Nine Entertainment shakes up portfolio: QMS buy, radio sale, and digital focus
• The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to!

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Yesterday, ASX small-cap stock Black Pearl Group Ltd (ASX: BPG) shot 13% higher. 

This exciting AI stock is now up almost 20% year to date. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 2.29% in that same period.

This rapid growth is hard to ignore, even for a small-cap stock. 

What’s more intriguing, is the bullish long-term outlook from Bell Potter. 

Introducing Black Pearl Group

Blackpearl Group is a data technology platform that develops and operates a lead prospecting and marketing product suite via its proprietary Pearl Engine platform and augmented large language model developed by BPG in 2022. 

The company transforms anonymous, unstructured web visits and data layers into identifiable prospects to significantly increase efficacy for SME ad/marketing spend by targeting prospects with a high intent to buy. 

It was initially listed on the ASX last November. 

Since then, its stock price has been hovering between $0.80 – $1.00. 

Yesterday, it shot more than 13% higher. 

New analysis from Bell Potter indicates this could be just the beginning of a strong year for the ASX small-cap stock. 

The broker is expecting plenty of growth this year. 

Strong ASX debut quarter

In yesterday’s report, Bell Potter was impressed with growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

Bell Potter said ARR significantly outperformed expectations, rising $4.3m (+114% YoY, +22% QoQ) to $23.7m, well ahead of Bell Potter’s $20.3m forecast, despite 3Q typically being seasonally softer.

The broker said outperformance was driven by penetration into higher value customers and Data-as-a-Service contracts. 

ARR has been pulled forward by ~two quarters, reaching levels Bell Potter had previously forecast for 1Q27.

This drives improved EPS loss forecasts of 2.3% (FY26), 15.4% (FY27) and 21.8% (FY28).

Essentially, Bell Potter sees the company’s debut quarter as a strong validation of its multi-venture model.

Price target upgrade from Bell Potter

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy recommendation. 

It also increased its price target to $1.91 (previously $1.45). 

From yesterday’s closing price, this indicates an upside of 94.90%. 

Our valuation increases to $1.91/sh following the ~2qtr pull forward of ARR within our expected $50m horizon and re-weighting of our Bull/Base/Bear case scenarios. BPG is growing and executing quickly during a land-grab phase of AI implementation into sales and marketing technology stacks, primarily into the large US SME market.

The post The high flying ASX small-cap AI stock you need to pay attention to! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares have had a choppy run over the past year.

Despite some strong operational progress, the biotechnology company’s shares finished Thursday’s session at $2.58, well below their recent highs.

So, has the market become too cautious on the Mesoblast story, or is there more going on beneath the surface?

Let’s take a look at what Bell Potter is saying following the company’s latest update.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter believes Mesoblast continues to make meaningful progress, particularly as it moves deeper into the commercial phase with its lead product, Ryoncil.

Commenting on its second quarter update, the broker highlighted the strength of revenues relative to expectations and the early signs of commercial momentum. It said:

Ryoncil gross revenues for the December quarter had previously been reported at $35m (+60% vs 1Q26). Net revenues were $30m reflecting an increase in the gross to net discount to 14.3% vs 12.8% in 1Q26. The increase in GTN discount is a reflection of the sales mix between medicare and private patients. Our model continues to assume a 13% GTN discount long term. Consensus for Dec qtr revenues was $27.6m, hence the result was an 8% beat.

Bell Potter also pointed to encouraging real-world data emerging since Ryoncil’s launch, which it believes adds further confidence to the long-term commercial outlook. It adds:

Of the first 25 patients treated with Ryoncil in the ‘real-world’ clinical setting post launch, 21 (84%) were alive at day 28. The data is highly consistent with data from the clinical trial setting. […] The outcomes highlight the need for clinicians to avoid delays in making Ryoncil available to patients, i.e. it should be made available as early as possible where patients fail to respond to steroid treatment.

The broker believes this real-world performance should help drive broader adoption, particularly given that reimbursement coverage is now close to universal.

Debt reset

Bell Potter also sees the company’s new debt facility as a key positive, both from a balance sheet and earnings transparency perspective. The broker explains:

The new loan package vastly simplifies the balance sheet and earnings transparency by virtue of the simple 8% charge, paid quarterly – interest only for five years. […] This new facility will considerably lower the cost of finance which we estimate has an all in cost of ~18%. The full year annualised saving on interest charges alone is estimated at ~$14m of which the part year impact on FY26 is estimated at $6m–$7m.

Importantly, Bell Potter believes improving sales trends and stabilising operating costs should see Mesoblast move closer to cash flow breakeven very soon. It adds:

Based on the trends for sales and operating expenses, we continue to believe MSB should be generating material positive cash from operations from the June quarter of CY2026, minimising the need for additional debt.

Should you buy Mesoblast shares?

In response to the update, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy rating on Mesoblast shares with an improved price target of $4.45 (from $4.00).

Based on the current Mesoblast share price of $2.58, this implies potential upside of over 70% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Could Mesoblast shares hit $4.45 in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Mesoblast posts revenue jump and new funding: Key takeaways for investors
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR) and REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) shares are trading at historically low levels. Some of this underperformance has been attributed to fears of long-term threat posed by AI-driven competition. 

So much discourse surrounding the AI boom has been focussed on identifying stocks set to benefit from technological innovation and integration. 

However there is also the possibility that some businesses’ core products are challenged by AI tools. 

This fear may be contributing to why CAR Group Shares and REA Group shares are both trading close to 52 week lows.

On one hand, investors may say these stocks look increasingly attractive from a valuation perspective. 

However there are serious questions about the threat of AI, along with other concerns that have influenced this underperformance. 

A new report from Canaccord Genuity/Wilsons Advisory has shed light on what may be influencing investor sentiment.

The report also identified key areas of focus that could influence investor decisions during and after February’s reporting season.

AI and competitive risks 

Greg Burke, Equity Strategist said these two ASX 200 stocks will be of particular interest this reporting season following a period of material underperformance, driven by several ongoing investor debates that are likely to dominate earnings calls.

Mr Burke said investors are questioning the potential long-term threat posed by AI-driven competition. 

Management teams are likely to address these concerns directly, while also highlighting the material revenue and cost opportunities associated with internal AI adoption, and reiterating the strength of their respective data moats and product offerings.

For REA Group, the report said the key debate regarding competition centres on the extent to which Domain, now owned by CoStar, and Google (which is reportedly exploring a real estate platform), could threaten REA’s leading market position and, over time, erode pricing power and margins.

Interest rates and cyclical concerns 

The report also noted that the growing prospect of further RBA rate hikes presents a potential headwind for automotive and real estate listings domestically. 

This increases the importance of yield and depth growth to support revenue and earnings over the near term. 

We expect both REA and CAR to deliver strong outcomes on this front in FY26.

The report also said softness in the US RV market has been a key focus for Car Group investors.

We expect CAR to point to further signs of improvement in the US RV market, consistent with broadly supportive US macro conditions, including the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

Are either of these stocks a buy?

Some of these questions may be answered by management in February’s upcoming reporting season. 

REA Group said it will announce its results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025 on Friday, 6 February 2026.

Meanwhile, CAR Group will announce its results for the half year ended 31 December 2025 on Monday 9 February 2026.

Mr Burke said with sector debates weighing on sentiment, REA and CAR look increasingly attractive from a valuation perspective. 

They trade on forward P/Es of 25x and 36x, which is ~20% below their five-year averages, while offering above-market, mid-teens EPS growth over the medium term. With these discounts, both stocks appear well positioned for relief rallies if their management teams can ease investor concerns or deliver upgrades to consensus.

The post Is AI a real threat to CAR Group and REA Group shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.