Category: Stock Market

It’s been a tough session for the market. After a weak lead from Wall Street overnight, the ASX 200 is down around 1.55% at the time of writing on Thursday. That takes losses for March to roughly 7.5%, which is a meaningful pullback in such a short period.

Whenever markets fall like this, quality stocks tend to get dragged down with everything else.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now, with several well-known ASX 200 stocks hitting 52-week lows. The key question is: is this an opportunity for investors?

Here’s how I’m thinking about it.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL has been under pressure for a while now, and this latest selloff has pushed it to fresh lows.

Sentiment has clearly turned cautious, but I don’t think the long-term story has changed in any meaningful way.

This is still one of Australia’s highest-quality healthcare companies, with global scale, strong margins, and a long track record of innovation.

Short-term earnings noise and investor concerns can move the share price around, but over time, businesses like CSL tend to reflect their underlying quality.

For me, this looks more like a temporary valuation reset than a structural problem.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

Aristocrat has also been caught up in the broader tech sell-off, with concerns around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption weighing on sentiment.

That’s understandable, but I think it may be overstated.

The company has a strong position in gaming content, world-class IP, and a growing digital segment, which gives it multiple avenues for growth.

It has also shown an ability to adapt over time, whether that’s through new game development or expanding into adjacent markets.

With the share price now significantly below its highs, I think the risk-reward is starting to look more attractive.

Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH)

Cochlear isn’t the kind of company that usually trades at 52-week lows.

It’s a global leader in implantable hearing solutions, with a strong brand and significant pricing power.

Like CSL, it has been dragged lower by broader market weakness rather than a clear deterioration in its long-term outlook.

Demand for its products is supported by ageing populations and increasing awareness of hearing health, which gives it a structural growth tailwind.

When high-quality healthcare names like this fall sharply, I tend to take notice.

Amcor plc (ASX: AMC)

Amcor is a very different type of business to the others, but it’s also worth a look at these levels.

Packaging may not be exciting, but it is essential.

Amcor operates globally, generates steady cash flow, and pays attractive dividends. That combination can be valuable during periods of market uncertainty.

Its shares have come under pressure alongside the broader market, but the underlying business remains resilient.

For income-focused investors, this kind of pullback can create an opportunity to lock in a higher yield.

Should you buy the dip?

Market selloffs can feel uncomfortable in the moment. But they’re also when some of the best long-term opportunities are created.

CSL, Aristocrat, Cochlear, and Amcor are established, high-quality ASX 200 stocks that are now trading at much lower prices than they were not long ago.

That doesn’t guarantee they’ll rebound immediately. Volatility could continue, especially if global markets remain under pressure.

But for long-term investors, I think this kind of weakness is worth leaning into rather than fearing.

Foolish takeaway

Sharp market declines often pull down both weak and strong companies at the same time.

Right now, I think that is creating opportunities in several ASX 200 stocks that don’t often trade at these kinds of levels.

CSL, Aristocrat, Cochlear, and Amcor all have challenges, but they also have strong long-term fundamentals.

For me, this looks less like a reason to panic and more like a chance to start building or adding to positions in quality businesses.

The post CSL and these ASX 200 stocks just hit 52-week lows: Should you buy the dip? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How are Australia’s biggest blue-chip stocks performing in 2026?
• 3 quality ASX shares to buy and hold until 2036
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 3 reasons to buy CSL shares today
• Why Cochlear and ResMed shares could be strong buys

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Amcor Plc. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Things have certainly taken a turn for the worse on the ASX boards this Thursday. After modest rises for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the past two trading days, investors might have been lulled into a sense of complacency. That went out the window this morning when the markets opened and the selling of ASX shares started.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is now down a nasty 1.6% at just above 8,500 points. This latest fall puts the Australian share market’s losses sine 2 March at a horrid 7.5%.

A fall of this magnitude over just a few weeks means that a lot of investor shave been selling their ASX shares. Those that haven’t have probably taken a significant haircut in the values of their investing portfolios. At least on paper.

The US-Iran War shows no signs of ending any time soon. Over the past 24 hours, there have been attacks on many energy facilities across the Middle East, which has driven the price of Brent crude oil back over US$110 a barrel. That’s almost double the US$60 that barrel was going for back in early January.

It wouldn’t be hard to conclude things might get more dicey before they get better. If that’s the case, should ASX investors think about selling their ASX shares today before things get even worse?

Is it time to start selling ASX shares?

I think investors who are debating this question need to reconsider why they are investing in the first place. We buy ASX shares to profit from a business’ earnings, and by doing so, grow our long-term wealth. Owning a company’s shares gives one the right to a portion of its earnings from today until, at least in theory, the end of time.

Yes, the global economy is reeling from a severe energy shock. It could have serious consequences. It already has. But history tells us time and time again that selling ASX shares during a crisis is almost always a poor decision. For one, the markets have seen it all before. We had severe energy shocks back in the 1970s. The markets recovered to push higher. We’ve had a litany of wars over the past few decades. We’ve had inflation, recessions and even a pandemic. Yet despite this, the ASX 200 was at a new all-time high less than three weeks ago.

None of can predict the future and know what will happen on the markets tomorrow, next week, next month or in 2027. Yet we can all look at the past and see what the best decisions were in hindsight. The choice that has, and has always had, the greatest chance of maximising your long-term wealth is to buy, and not sell, when prices are low.

The post Is it time to sell your ASX shares before things get worse? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) is down 4.4% on Thursday, while the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) is down 1.6%.

ASX mining shares have been the worst hit by the war in Iran, with the Metal & Mining Index falling 17.4% vs. a 7.7% drop for the ASX 300.

Fears of rising fuel costs and constrained supply are a major headwind for mining operations, potentially threatening production.

Additionally, ASX mining shares have been on a tear for 12 months, and the war may be prompting some investors to take profits now.

A global fuel crisis would hit almost every market sector, so an ongoing conflict in Iran could drag the whole market lower over time.

Kylie Purcell, Senior Markets Analyst for online investment platform Stake, said:

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and oil prices march upwards, we could see a sharper, sustained fall in global and Australian shares.

Meantime, here are three ASX mining shares with buy, hold, and sell ratings today.

Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK)

The Meeka Metals share price is 16 cents on Thursday, down 4.7% today but up 15.7% over the past year.

This week, Morgans maintained its buy rating on the ASX gold mining share with a 12-month price target of 39 cents.

The broker said:

MEK announced an expansion to 800ktpa (equivalent ounce basis) via ore sorting, requiring modest capex of A$6m with commissioning scheduled for Q1FY27. Ore sorting effectively near doubles Andy Well underground head grade, lifting our annual production forecasts by an average of 7% from FY27 onwards.

We maintain our BUY rating and A$0.39ps price target, acknowledging near-term production softness may weigh on the 3Q result ahead of an anticipated step-change in output in 4Q.

The ASX gold mining share will join the ASX 300 Index at the next rebalance, effective next Monday.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is $20.04, down 1.7% today but up 162% over the past year.

This week, Bell Potter upgraded its rating on this ASX rare earths mining share from sell to hold.

The broker also significantly increased its 12-month price target from $11.60 to $19 per share.

The rating change followed the miner’s announcement that it has extended its Japan Australia Rare Earths offtake agreement to 2038.

Bell Potter said this effectively guaranteed revenue of around $775 million at the current exchange rate.

Today, Lynas announced it had produced its first samarium oxide at the Malaysia site.

Lunnon Metals Ltd (ASX: LM8)

The Lunnon Metals share price is 34 cents, down 9.5% today but up 60% over the past 12 months.

On The Bull this week, Nathan Lodge from Securities Vault put a sell rating on this ASX nickel mining share.

Lodge explained:

For companies, such as Lunnon Metals, exploration success isn’t sufficient to drive value if the underlying commodity price environment remains weak.

The company’s strategy centres on exploring and advancing sulphide nickel deposits in a region historically known for high grade discoveries and established mining infrastructure.

However, global nickel prices have been under sustained pressure as supply from Indonesia has increased rapidly, creating a structural oversupply in the market.

Lunnon Metals gave a presentation at the Euroz Hartleys Conference yesterday.

The post Buy, hold, sell: 3 ASX mining shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• 2 ASX small-cap mining shares to sell: Experts
• Why Challenger, Meeka Metals, Vulcan Energy, and West African Resources shares are rising today

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have enjoyed a strong rebound since plumbing eight-month lows of $147.22 on 21 January.

In late morning trade today, shares in S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock are down 0.4%, trading for $176.47 apiece.

Despite today’s dip, that sees CBA shares up 19.9% since market close on 21 January.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 3.2% over this same period.

But with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increasing interest rates for the second time in 2026 on Tuesday – lifting the official cash rate by 0.25% to 4.10% – that strong outperformance could be about to shift into reverse.

That’s the warning issued by Morgan Stanley this week, with the broker cautioning that CBA’s earnings could take a material hit.

Here’s why.

Are CBA shares eyeing the perfect storm?

The RBA is back on the tightening path in an effort to rein in resurgent inflation. Higher interest rates work to reduce demand. But if energy prices remain high amid the Iran war, higher rates also could put the brakes on Australia’s GDP growth.

Indeed, Morgan Stanley bank analyst Richard Wiles said fast rising interest rates could “fundamentally shift operating conditions” for CBA shares and the other big four ASX bank stocks (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

“The uncertain environment raises the risk of both earnings downgrades and a de-rating, increasing the probability that banks underperform the ASX 200 in 2026,” Wiles said

Amid the prospect of two more RBA interest rate hikes this year, Morgan Stanley expects Australia’s GDP growth to slow to 1.6% in 2026, down from 2.6% last year.

This in turn, would likely impact CBA’s loan growth. In a worst-case scenario, Wiles said that CommBank could see its earnings downgraded by 8.9%.

Should that occur, Wiles said that CBA shares could plunge more than 42% to $101.50 each.

What about the other big four ASX 200 bank stocks?

It’s not just CBA shares that could be looking at a sharp fall.

Wiles estimates that in the above scenario, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) earnings would be downgraded by 9.7%; ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) earnings would be downgraded by 10.1%; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) earnings would be downgraded by 14.3%.

That could see Westpac shares fall more than 35% from the current $41.27 to $26.50; NAB shares could tumble more 30% to $32.90; and ANZ shares could fall almost 20% to $29.80 each.

CBA shares and the other ASX 200 banks are at particular risk as they’re already trading at high price to earnings (P/E) ratios.

Wiles concluded (quoted by the AFR):

History tells you that when the RBA hikes, bank price-to-earnings multiples go down. It hasn’t happened yet, but that’s what’s happened historically.

Our own forecasts currently assume a favourable operating environment continues. That means the banks are vulnerable to de-rating risk and that an earnings downgrade risk could emerge if the economy slows down more than expected.

The post How higher interest rates could send CBA shares plunging 42% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Should I invest $10,000 in Westpac shares right now?
• Rates are rising. Are Australia’s biggest bank shares still worth buying?
• How are Australia’s biggest blue-chip stocks performing in 2026?
• Here’s what experts think will happen with the RBA interest rate this year
• Why the RBA could increase interest rates again in May

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Australian share market has pulled back from recent highs, with investors navigating a mix of rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting global growth expectations.

While this type of volatility is not unusual, some sectors have felt the pressure more than others. In particular, non-bank financials have had a challenging period, with several high-quality names seeing meaningful share price declines.

Two examples are Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI) and Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL). Over the past 12 months, their share prices have fallen more than 27% and 20%, respectively.

For long-term investors, periods like this often spark discussion around contrarian thinking. When sentiment turns negative, it can sometimes push share prices below what the underlying business performance might justify. That doesn’t automatically mean value is present — but it can create a reason to look more closely.

So, how are these two businesses actually performing beneath the surface?

Inflows climbing

Pinnacle operates a multi-affiliate funds management platform. Rather than managing all assets directly, it takes equity stakes in specialist investment boutiques (known as affiliates) and earns a share of their fees and profits.

This model allows Pinnacle to scale across asset classes and geographies while remaining relatively capital-light.

Recent results suggest the underlying business continues to grow, even as performance fees fluctuate. Funds under management (FUM) reached $202.5 billion, up 13%, supported by record net inflows of $17.2 billion for the half.

Importantly, core earnings appear resilient. Pinnacle reported strong growth in its share of affiliate profits (excluding performance fees), with underlying net profit (NPAT) also rising solidly versus the prior period.

The variability comes from performance fees, which declined compared to the previous corresponding period — highlighting the cyclical nature of earnings in funds management.

Strategically, the business continues to expand globally, with increasing exposure to international markets and private assets, alongside new investments such as its stake in Pacific Asset Management.

Improving profitability 

Netwealth is a platform provider offering technology, administration, and investment solutions to financial advisers and their clients. It generates revenue primarily from fees linked to funds under administration (FUA) and from transaction and ancillary services.

The structural tailwinds behind the business — including the shift towards platform-based investing and independent advice — remain firmly in place.

Recent results highlight strong operational momentum. Netwealth reported FUA of $125.6 billion, up 23.6% year on year, alongside total income growth of 24.7% to $193.8 million.

Profitability also improved, with operating earnings (EBITDA) rising 23.9% and net profit after tax increasing nearly 20%.

Revenue growth has been broad-based, with platform revenue climbing 25.3%, supported by growth across administration, transaction, and ancillary fees.

The company continues to benefit from strong inflows and adviser growth, with custodial inflows of $16.4 billion for the half and expanding market share in the platform sector.

Management remains focused on investing in technology and product capability, including AI-driven enhancements, to support long-term growth and adviser productivity.

Foolish takeaway

Despite notable share price declines over the past year, both Pinnacle and Netwealth appear to be delivering solid underlying business performance.

Pinnacle’s growth continues to be driven by inflows and its scalable affiliate model, while Netwealth is benefiting from structural industry shifts and strong platform growth.

As always, markets can sometimes weigh short-term uncertainty more heavily than longer-term fundamentals. If these companies can continue to grow revenue and earnings over time, a shift in sentiment could eventually see valuations move higher again.

Whether that plays out — and over what timeframe — remains something investors will be watching closely.

The post 2 beaten-down ASX financial stocks worth a closer look appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• 3 ASX growth shares I’d buy and hold with $3,000

Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Netwealth Group and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Barrenjoey has had a look at a couple of the ASX-listed, Africa-focused gold miners and has identified two companies its analyst team believes are deeply undervalued at current prices.

Let’s have a look at who they like.

West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF)

The Barrenjoey team has published a research note on this company with the title “Cash harvest in 2026”, which gives some indication of how positive they are on the stock.

They note that after a “challenging” 2025, the company enters 2026 in a net cash position, “with its two key assets humming and on track to produce 475,000 ounces at an all in sustaining cost of US$1,991 per ounce on our estimates”.

The Barrenjoey team went on to say:

The shares have traded down 30% since January and are now imputing an almost unbelievable 43% free cash flow yield in 2026 with the potential to deliver a dividend yield exceeding 10%. Uncertainty around the government’s request to purchase a stake in Kiaka remains unresolved, but the shares are now pricing in a scenario materially worse than the recently reported additional 25%. We expect the business will deliver $1.1bn in free cash flow this year, and will be in a strong position to make material capital returns to shareholders.

Barrenjoey says their price target is based on a “worst case scenario” regarding what stake in the Kiaka mine the Burkina Faso Government opts to take.

Barrenjoey has a $4.80 price target for West African Resources shares, compared with $2.89 currently.

If achieved, that would represent a return of 66.1%. West African Resources is valued at $3.46 billion.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU)

This company announced just this week that it had sold its 70% stake in the Meyas Sand Project in Sudan to a Chinese company for US$260 million, which Barrenjoey said was about 50% more than Perseus paid for it.

Barrenjoey said the transaction was a net positive, as it had the asset on the books as worth $118 million, “given the ongoing civil war in Sudan and uncertainty around Perseus’s ability to develop it”.

The Barrenjoey analysts point out that Perseus shares are down 20% from their January peak, ”since which time management has announced the doubling of Reserves at Nyanzaga, realised value at Meyas Sand and positioned the company for improved capital returns in 2026”.

The Barrenjoey analysts added:

We view Perseus as the highest-quality ASX-listed African gold exposure, with its history of operational excellence and geographic diversification typically driving a healthy premium over its ASX listed African gold peers.

They said that the company should be in a position to “meaningfully” lift its full-year dividend following the Sudan sale.

Barrenjoey has increased its price target for Perseus from $6.50 to $6.80, compared with $4.80 currently.

The post 2 ASX gold miners to buy for solid share price gains, according to Barrenjoey appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Which ASX gold shares have risen the most in 2026?
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Why Challenger, Meeka Metals, Vulcan Energy, and West African Resources shares are rising today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Dateline Resources Ltd (ASX: DTR) are under pressure on Thursday following the release of a new operational update.

At the time of writing, the Dateline share price is down 7.92% to 46.5 cents.

The decline comes despite the company outlining progress at its Colosseum Gold and Rare Earth Elements (REE) project in California.

Here is what the company announced.

Dateline secures second drill rig

According to the release, Dateline has acquired a second diamond drill rig to accelerate its drilling program at the Colosseum project.

The company said the rig has already been mobilised to site and is undergoing final safety checks ahead of drilling.

The new rig will operate alongside an existing contractor-operated rig. Together, the two rigs are expected to support a 12-hole drilling program targeting rare earths elements.

Dateline said the additional capacity will also allow it to test gold mineralisation at the site, including extensions of the North Pipe area.

The newly acquired rig is track-mounted and capable of drilling to depths of up to 1,200 metres. This is expected to provide greater flexibility to access areas where conventional truck-mounted rigs may be limited.

Focus remains on Colosseum project

The Colosseum project is located in California, near the well-known Mountain Pass rare earths mine.

Dateline owns 100% of the project and is progressing both gold and rare earths exploration activities.

Previous work at the site has defined a JORC compliant gold resource. The company is also assessing the potential to expand this resource while testing for additional rare earths mineralisation.

Management said the addition of a second rig is expected to increase drilling activity and lift exploration output across both commodities.

Strong run despite today’s pullback

While today’s share price decline may draw attention, it follows a period of strong gains.

Dateline shares are up more than 100% since the start of the year. Over the past 12 months, the stock has delivered returns of more than 11,500%.

The company currently has a market capitalisation of around $1.6 billion and has recorded large trading volumes in recent sessions.

What to watch from here

With two rigs now operating, Dateline should generate more drilling data across both gold and rare earths targets. This includes work around the North Pipe area and other parts of the project.

The larger program is also expected to improve coverage across the site as drilling ramps up.

Attention will now turn to updates on drilling progress and results from the expanded program.

The post Up 100% in 2026, this ASX stock just dropped 8%. Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 1.5% in early afternoon trade on Thursday.

That’s roughly where the benchmark index has been at all day.

This sees the ASX 200 down a sharp 7.6% since the closing bell on 2 March.

The broader Aussie sharemarket has come under pressure this month amid ongoing concerns over resurgent inflation and the resulting RBA interest rate hikes. And surging energy prices, fuelled by the war in Iran, have done nothing to assuage those concerns.

Which is why we’ve been keeping a close eye on Australia’s unemployment numbers.

So long as the jobs market remains tight, as it has been, wages are likely to keep rising, adding to inflationary pressures.

In making its decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.10% on Tuesday, the RBA relied partly on its forecast that unemployment will increase from 4.1% to 4.3% by June.

Which brings us to the latest Australian jobs data, just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ASX 200 stays in the red despite unemployment uptick

The ASX 200 is up a slender 0.1% since the ABS released the jobs report at 11:30am AEDT.

Investor reaction has been muted to the news that Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in February.

Commenting on the jobs data, Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:

The number of unemployed people grew by 35,000, contributing to the 0.2 percentage point increase of the unemployment rate in February.

This month we saw fewer people who were unemployed and waiting to start a job in January move into employment in February, compared to recent Februarys. We also saw more people remaining unemployed this month compared to recent Februarys.

Crick added, “This month we saw more people move into part-time employment, particularly those aged 65 and over. Additionally, this month we saw that fewer people are leaving jobs to retire compared to a year ago.”

What are the experts saying about RBA interest rates now?

As for what ASX 200 investors might expect from the interest rates following today’s jobs data, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) noted before the data release (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

This release will be important for the RBA’s assessment of spare capacity in the labour market, with RBA’s Hauser recently noting that the economy has limited spare capacity, with unemployment coming in “a bit” below expectations and measures of labour demand a little higher.

If unemployment remains at 4.1%, this would do little to ease the RBA’s concerns around labour market tightness. By contrast, a print of 4.2% would ease concern the labour market may be tighter still than their February assessment.

Global X senior product and investment strategist Marc Jocum cautioned that ASX 200 investors are unlikely to see the RBA reverse its tightening policy based on today’s employment figures.

“Today’s jobs data reinforces the tightening bias, suggesting policy will need to stay restrictive for longer than markets may be hoping,” Jocum said.

The post What today’s jobs numbers mean for ASX 200 investors appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 reasons to buy Telstra shares today
• Charter Hall Long WALE REIT declares March 2026 distribution and DRP update
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Markets brace for the next shock as global tensions flare up

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is out of form and sinking deep into the red. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 1.5% to 8,508.3 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

EBR Systems Inc (ASX: EBR)

The EBR Systems share price is up 4% to 72 cents. This follows the release of the medical device company’s quarterly update. EBR Systems’ president and chief executive officer, John McCutcheon, was pleased with the progress the company is making. He said: “2025 marked a defining year for EBR as we successfully transitioned from a development-stage company to a commercial medical device business. Achieving FDA approval for the WiSE CRT System in April and initiating our U.S. commercial launch were transformational milestones that position EBR at the forefront of leadless cardiac resynchronisation therapy.”

Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)

The EOS share price is up a further 3% to $10.01. This defence and space company’s shares have been rebounding after a major sell-off on Tuesday. The catalyst for this was news that the company’s CEO, Dr Andreas Schwer, was given approval to sell 2.5 million EOS shares on-market following the exercise of options that were granted under a long-term incentive plan. Some investors may believe the selling was an overreaction, especially after its CEO committed to retain a shareholding well above the minimum levels required under its recently announced shareholding policy.

Racura Oncology Ltd (ASX: RAC)

The Racura Oncology share price is up 21% to $2.89. Investors have been buying this oncology company’s shares after it announced the successful dosing of a patient in Hong Kong with its RC220 cancer compound. Importantly, there has been no vein inflammation or other adverse events reported following the dosing. Racura’s CEO, Dr Daniel Tillett, said: “The safe dosing of the third patient in our RC220 solid tumour trial in Hong Kong and recruitment of the first dose escalation cohort is an important milestone for Racura Oncology. We are grateful to all the patients, investigators, and clinical teams who have made this trial possible and we look forward to treating patients on the updated protocol.”

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

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The post Why EBR, EOS, Racura, and Woodside shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Let me start with an uncomfortable truth:

If the Australian government announced a meaningful Budget surplus today, plenty of people would be furious.

Not a bit disappointed. Furious.

We’d hear that Canberra was “out of touch”. That it was “ignoring struggling families”. That it was “hoarding money while people are doing it tough”.

And politically, that reaction is exactly why we’re unlikely to see one.

But here’s the thing – and it matters more than the politics:

A Budget surplus right now would probably be one of the most effective forms of cost-of-living relief the government could deliver.

Not because it hands out cash.

But because it helps stop taking it away (via inflation) in the first place.

Before we go further, we need to introduce a concept that doesn’t get nearly enough airtime (but you’ve probably read from me before): structural Budget balance.

In plain English, it’s this: what would the Budget look like if the economy were running at a normal, sustainable pace?

Not booming. Not in recession. Just… steady.

That matters because government revenues and spending naturally move with the economic cycle.

When times are good, tax receipts surge – more people working, higher profits; more income tax and company tax flowing in.

At the same time, welfare spending tends to fall, particularly unemployment benefits.

The Budget can look healthy – even in surplus – without any real policy effort.

Flip that around in a downturn and the opposite happens. Revenues fall, spending rises, and deficits appear.

Again, often automatically.

So when we talk about surpluses and deficits, we need to separate what’s cyclical (driven by the economy) from what’s structural (driven by policy settings).

Because it’s the structural position that really tells us whether fiscal policy is helping or hurting.

And let me be clear: deficits aren’t inherently bad.

In fact, at the right time, they’re exactly what you want.

When the economy is weak – businesses cutting back, unemployment rising, households tightening their belts – government spending can step in to support demand. And automatically!

That’s not theoretical. It’s practical.

More spending keeps people in jobs. It supports incomes. It prevents downturns from becoming something worse.

Think back to the pandemic, or the global financial crisis.

Deficits weren’t a failure of policy.

They were the policy.

As I often say: prepare, don’t predict. And part of that preparation is recognising that sometimes the government needs to support the economy.

But – and this is the bit we tend to forget (some of us just because… our politicians, probably on purpose) – the opposite is also true.

When the economy is running hot, deficits become part of the problem.

Because when the government spends more than it collects, it’s adding demand.

More money chasing the same goods and services.

And when demand runs ahead of supply?

Prices go up.

That’s where we’ve been. It’s where we are now.

And it’s what the RBA confronted on Tuesday.

When inflation rises, the RBA steps in, lifting interest rates to cool things down.

Higher rates reduce borrowing, slow spending, and – eventually – bring inflation back under control.

But here’s the key point: fiscal policy (the Budget) and monetary policy (interest rates) are working against each other.

The government is running stimulatory deficits while the RBA is trying to slow the economy with higher rates.

Which, if you sit with it for more than 30 seconds, is maddening.

One pressing the accelerator.

The other hitting the brakes.

But a Budget surplus would change that dynamic.

Instead of adding demand, the government would be taking more out of the economy than it’s putting in.

That reduces overall spending power.

Less demand means less pressure on prices.

And less pressure on prices means the RBA doesn’t need to push interest rates as high – or keep them there as long.

So while a surplus doesn’t feel like “relief” – no cheques, no rebates, no big announcements – it works in a quieter, more powerful way.

It pushes back against inflation.

And by doing so, lessens the need for higher interest rates.

For mortgage holders, who otherwise bear the full brunt of monetary policy, that’s real relief.

The other thing? Australia hasn’t just been running deficits at the wrong time in the cycle.

We’ve been running structural deficits for a long time.

In other words, even when the economy is doing reasonably well, government spending is still exceeding revenue.

That leaves us with very little room to move when things go wrong.

If you’re already in deficit during the good times, what happens when the bad times arrive?

You go deeper into deficit.

And rack up far more debt.

And as a result, future governments have fewer options. Future budgets have higher interest expenses to pay, reducing the money available for other programs and/or the ability to lower taxes.

A structurally balanced Budget – or better yet, a small structural surplus – gives policymakers flexibility.

It means they can afford to run deficits when they’re needed.

Without putting long-term pressure on the system.

If the logic is this clear (and I think it is!), why aren’t we aiming for structural balance – and running surpluses when the economy is strong?

Because politics isn’t economics.

A surplus requires restraint. It means saying “no” – or at least “not now” – to spending demands.

It requires a population to understand and to vote accordingly, too. (Not for one party or another… just to resist voting for whoever gives out the most handouts, whatever the long term cost!)

Right now, those demands are loud.

Households are under pressure. Prices are high. Mortgage repayments have jumped.

All of that is real.

But here’s the thing: the spending designed to provide relief can end up prolonging the problem.

More spending means more demand… which means more inflation… which probably means higher (or a longer wait for lower) interest rates.

Round and round we go.

We, and our politicians, are the problem.

We want lower prices.

And lower interest rates.

And lower taxes.

And more government support.

And no cuts to services.

…At the same time.

Unfortunately, economics doesn’t work like that. We don’t have a magic pudding.

Good governance means different parts of the cycle require different responses.

Deficits when the economy is weak.

Surpluses when the economy is strong.

And, crucially, a structural position that gives us the flexibility to do both.

Now, none of this is to suggest governments shouldn’t help, when real problems are identified.

Of course they should… especially for those most in need.

But we also need to recognise that not all help comes in the form of a handout or subsidy or discount.

Sometimes, the best help is the kind that reduces inflation.

That brings interest rates down sooner.

That takes pressure off the system as a whole.

Right now, that kind of help would look a lot like a Budget surplus.

Bottom line?

Governments need courage, and we need to vote thoughtfully, telling our pollies what we want.

This is what that looks like:

Running deficits when the economy needs support.

Running surpluses when it doesn’t. (And when it needs cooling!)

And aiming, over time, for a structurally balanced Budget that gives us room to move.

Because the alternative – permanent deficits, short-term fixes, and policy driven by fear of backlash – doesn’t make us richer.

It leaves us more exposed.

And, ultimately, worse off.

Fool on!

The post The Budget surplus we don’t want (but need) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.