Category: Stock Market

After a decidedly rough year, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares enjoyed a welcome month of outperformance in November.

On 31 October, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed trading for $178.50. When the closing bell sounded on 28 November, shares were changing hands for $186.30 apiece.

This saw CSL shares up 4.4% for the month, handily outperforming the 3% loss posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

What’s been lifting CSL shares?

With the ASX 200 healthcare stock down some 35% over 12 months, an increasing number of analysts believe the $88 billion company is now trading at a long-term bargain.

Consensus recommendations on CommSec reveal twelve analysts with a strong buy recommendation, two with a moderate buy, and four with hold recommendations. There are currently no sell recommendations on CSL shares.

Morgans is among the bulls here, with the broker recently reiterating its buy rating on the stock with a $249.51 price target. That’s some 27% above current levels.

What else happened with the ASX 200 biotech stock in November?

Atop positive analyst coverage, CSL shares attracted investor interest following the company’s Capital Markets Day on 5 November.

The company used the opportunity to highlight the tremendous 10-year growth achieved by its Seqirus influenza divisions. Revenue at Seqirus has increased from $751 million in FY 2016 to an estimated $2 billion in FY 2025. That represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%.

Management also noted that CSL Seqirus held a 42% share of the global influenza vaccine market in 2025.

And in the event of another global pandemic outbreak, CSL shares could rocket.

That’s because the company said it could produce 500 million pandemic doses within the first four months of an outbreak. Should we see a global influenza outbreak, CSL estimates it would earn more than $3.5 billion in pandemic revenue. (Though let’s hope it doesn’t come to that again!)

November also saw the company announce that it will invest US$1.5 billion to manufacture plasma-derived therapies in the United States.

Among other benefits, this should exempt CSL from US pharmaceutical tariffs that Donald Trump is expected to impose on imports.

Commenting on the major US investment on the day, CSL managing director and CEO Paul McKenzie said:

The US is the world’s leading source for plasma, the main component of plasma derived therapies. These important medicines are often the most effective or only therapies available for many rare or serious diseases.

Halfway through the second trading day of December, CSL shares are down 2% in the new month.

The post What happened with CSL shares in November? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 most-traded Australian shares last week
• CSL is a great company, but I think this ASX stock is a better investment
• Buy, hold, sell: CSL, DroneShield, and Northern Star shares
• Why today’s cheap ASX shares could double my money during the next bull market
• I’d listen to Warren Buffett’s advice to buy undervalued ASX shares today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Metcash Ltd (ASX: MTS) shares are trading in the red again on Tuesday afternoon. At the time of writing the share price is 0.6% lower at $3.34 a piece. The shares are now down 9.49% since the ASX opened on yesterday morning. Over the past month Metcash shares have plummeted 12.79%.

Trading in Metcash shares, and around 50 other ASX-listed companies, was suspended on Monday amid a platform outage. The wholesale distribution and marketing company behind the IGA supermarket chain, was the largest company caught up in the outage. Metcash requested a trading halt after it was unable to release a presentation about its FY26 first half year results while an investor call was underway.

For the six months ended 31 October, Metcash reported a 0.1% increase in group revenue. It also posted a 0.3% increase in profit after tax, and a 2% lift in its EBITDA. This was largely driven by strong growth in its Food pillar.

Following the company’s results, Macquarie analysts wrote a note to investors with their latest outlook on the stock.

Target price lowered for Metcash shares

The broker confirmed its neutral rating on Metcash shares but slashed its target price to just $3.50. This is down from $4.00 previously. At the time of writing that represents a 4.8% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

“EBITDA declines of ~5-9% over medium-term driven by all segments, with the largest decline in Hardware given lower margins,” the broker said.

We cut our TP 12.5% to $3.50, consistent with cashflow changes, partly offset by ~10bps reduction in risk-free rate to 4.2%.

With competitive pressures weighing across business and more subdued outlook for new housing creation, we see risks as evenly balanced at current pricing.

What else did Macquarie have to say?

Metcash’s underlying EBIT for the first half of FY26 was 5% below market expectations and 10% lower than Macquarie estimates. The largest variances were in the company’s Hardware and Liquor segments. 

Looking forward, we remain cautious on the potential for margin recovery with management calling out competition in Food and Hardware, in addition to evidence of heightened competition in Liquor (e.g., COL strategy and EDV response).

“The other key positive was cash conversion, with the 3-year cash realisation ratio at ~106%, well ahead of the 80-90% guidance range. Management expects this to revert to the upper end of the range,” Macquarie said.

The post Macquarie slashes price target on Metcash shares as price plunge continues appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s how much the new Metcash dividend is worth
• Metcash shares on watch amid $142m first half profit and flat dividend
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Up 21% this year! This fast-recovering ASX dividend share might not be a bargain forever
• Why did the ASX 200 dive to a near six-month low last week?

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Locksley Resources Ltd (ASX: LKY) is a US-focused critical minerals explorer targeting high grade rare earths and antimony in California.

Aussie investors are excited about this ASX mineral explorer amid growing interest in rare earths due to China’s dominance as a supplier.

Rare earths are used in wind turbines, electric cars, robotics, defence systems, and everyday tech gadgets like smartphones.

China has restricted its exports, which prompted the US to do a $US8.5 billion deal with Australia to secure more supply in October.

Meanwhile, investors are learning much more about antimony, a key input in defence systems, semiconductors, and metal alloys, amid a global defence spending surge and high demand for semiconductors due to expanding investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

Locksley Resources is sitting pretty amid all these developments.

Its flagship project in California’s Mojave Desert sits 1.4km from America’s only actively producing rare earths mine, Mountain Pass.

Mountain Pass is owned by MP Materials Corp, and Aussie mining baroness Gina Rinehart just became its biggest shareholder.

Rhinehart invested more than $200 million in MP Materials last month, giving her a 5.3% stake.

Locksley’s Mojave Project encompasses the El Campo rare earths deposit and the historical Desert Antimony Mine (DAM).

DAM last operated in 1937. Currently, the US has no domestic antimony production and demand for the metal is rising strongly.

Based on surface sample results, Locksley Resources says DAM is “one of the highest-grade known antimony occurrences in the US”.

Locksley sees a bright future ahead, commenting last week:

Locksley’s North American position is further strengthened by rising geopolitical urgency to diversify supply chains away from China, the global leader in both REE & antimony production.

With its maiden drilling program planned, the Mojave Project is uniquely positioned to align with U.S. strategic objectives around critical mineral independence and economic security.

Outlook for Locksley Resources shares

Locksley Resources shares peaked at an all-time high of 69 cents per share on 22 September.

At the time, that represented an astounding 3,959% capital gain for 2025 and a 2,350% uplift over 12 months.

That month, Niv Dagan from Peak Asset Management warned that short-term profit-taking was likely after such incredible gains.

He was right.

Since 22 September, the Locksley Resources share price has more than halved to 31 cents today.

What should investors do now?

Analyst’s view on Locksley Resources shares

Dagan maintains a hold rating on Locksley Resources shares.

On The Bull this week, Dagan commented:

On November 17, the company announced a partnership with Columbia University, which it expects to strengthen its rare earth recovery capability amid expanding the mine-to-market critical minerals platform.

This latest development complements LKY’s existing green DeepSolv antimony processing partnership with Rice University.

LKY’s active engagement comes at a time when the US is expanding critical minerals development.

What’s the latest news from Locksley Resources?

Last week, Locksley Resources announced operational commencement of its maiden five-hole diamond drilling program at El Campo.

It also announced final approval for an expanded drilling program involving up to 16 drill holes at DAM.

Drilling will occur sequentially, with the diamond drill rig commencing at El Campo, then moving to DAM.

Locksley Resources said this would ensure a continuous flow of exploration news and data throughout 1Q and 2Q CY26.

Meanwhile, the company is fast-tracking a mine-to-market strategy for antimony.

In partnership with Rice University in Texas, it’s also developing a faster processing method for antimony called DeepSolv.

Locksley Resources recently announced the casting of the first 100% US-made antimony ingot metal in decades.

Kerrie Matthews, Managing Director and CEO, commented last week:

We are finishing 2025 with strong momentum.

By commencing operations at El Campo and finalising the bond for DAM, we have effectively opened two fronts for exploration.

Locksley Resources reported cash of approximately $7.24 million at the end of the September quarter, with 4.57 quarters of funding left.

The post Down 55% in 10 weeks, is it time to cut and run on Locksley Resources shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 4 ASX small-cap mining shares up 100% or more in 2025
• Why are shares in this junior critical minerals company surging more than 20%?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended MP Materials. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) climbed 1% last week. At the time of writing on Tuesday morning, the index has climbed higher still, up another 0.37% for the day. Over the past month, the index is still down 3.35%. Here’s what Australian shares investors were snapping up during the final week in November, according to new CommSec data.

Droneshield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

Droneshield shares were the most-traded among CommSec clients between the 24th and 28th of November, based on contract note volumes either bought or sold weekly.

The data shows that of 9.5K shares traded, 66% was buyer activity, and the remaining 34% was selling. 

This likely explains why the AI drone operator’s shares rose 13.14% during the week. Ticking over into December, however, the company’s shares have tumbled yet again, down 5.25% between Monday morning to the time of writing. Droneshield shares are now trading at $1.89 a piece, down a staggering 71.36% since their peak in early October. The stock is still trading 152% higher than this time last year.

Droneshield shares have been under significant pressure recently following the US CEO resignation, employee share sell-offs, and accidental ASX release.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) 

Pilbara Minerals was the second most-traded Australian share last week, although significantly behind Droneshield volumes at just 3.6K shares. However, most of this (61%) was selling activity.

Over the course of last week, Pilbara Minerals’ share price climbed 7.71%. And the increase has continued this week, too. At the time of writing, the shares are 2.04% higher for the day and changing hands at $4 a piece. Over the past six months, the lithium miner’s share price has soared an incredible 251.75%.

The latest selling activity from CommSec clients is likely due to investors selling up and taking gains made over the past few months.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) 

The banking giant’s shares fell 1.58% during the course of last week. At the time of writing, the shares are 0.32% higher for the day, at $152.16 a piece.

CommSec clients traded 2.9K of CBA shares over the course of the last week in November, most of which was buying activity at around 67%. Most of these investors were likely taking advantage of the banking giant’s 15.27% share price plunge earlier in the month, which was ignited by a loss in confidence.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

WiseTech was the fourth most-traded Australian share last week. Around 73% of activity was from buyers likely looking to get back into the stock after a huge 33.07% sell-off over the past 6 months.

Over the course of last week, WiseTech shares climbed 8.92%. Although sentiment hasn’t followed through to this week. At the time of writing, the share price is 1.56% lower for the day, at $70 a piece.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL shares are looking to be coming back in favour with investors. The stock was the fifth most-traded Australian share by CommSec clients last week, and 55% was buying activity.

During the course of the week, CSL shares climbed 1.83%. And they’re trending higher this week, too. At the time of writing, CSL shares are 0.34% higher for the day. For the year-to-date, the share price is still 34.42% lower.

The post 5 most-traded Australian shares last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• What happened with CSL shares in November?
• ANZ shares are lagging the other big banks: Here’s why
• Are CBA shares a good buy amid rising interest rates?
• CSL is a great company, but I think this ASX stock is a better investment
• Why does the CBA share price keep falling? – Expert

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, DroneShield, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is rebounding from yesterday’s decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.3% to 8,590.4 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are climbing:

AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB)

The AUB Group share price is up almost 2.5% to $31.35. Investors have been buying this insurance broker’s shares after a sharp pullback on Monday following the collapse of takeover talks. This morning, Ord Minnett put a buy rating and $35.71 price target on the company’s shares. It feels its shares offer a favourable risk/reward at current levels.

Titomic Ltd (ASX: TTT)

The Titomic share price is up 15% to 23 cents. This follows the release of an announcement from the cold spray additive manufacturing company this morning. Titomic revealed that it has successfully completed a hot fire test on a solid rocket motor thrust chamber produced for a major U.S. aerospace and defence customer. Titomic’s CEO, Jim Simpson, said: “This successful test validates the strength and performance of Titomic’s technology in one of the most challenging environments imaginable. It represents not only a technical achievement but further affirms cold spray as a critical additive manufacturing capability for advanced aerospace and defense solutions. Titomic delivered the components to its customer within weeks of receiving the order, demonstrating our ability to rapidly deliver – from prototype to production – critical missile components which today has significant lead times.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

The Treasury Wine share price is up 2% to $5.90. This morning, Morgan Stanley responded to the wine company’s US update by retaining its equal weight rating and $6.45 price target. This implies potential upside of 12% from current levels. Elsewhere, Morgans has put a hold rating and $6.10 price target on its shares.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside Energy share price is up over 1% to $25.46. This has been driven by a decent rise in oil prices overnight amid supply concerns following an attack on a Black Sea terminal. The WTI crude oil price was up 1.35% to US$59.33 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 1.3% to US$63.20 a barrel. It isn’t just Woodside that is rising today on the news. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy index is up almost 1.5% at the time of writing.

The post Why AUB, Titomic, Treasury Wine, and Woodside shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Why ASX, AUB, Dyno Nobel, and HMC shares are sinking today
• Down 50% in a year, why are Treasury Wine shares sinking on Monday?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Why today’s cheap ASX shares could double my money during the next bull market

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates and Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aub Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) is one of the most popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the ASX. In fact, according to the latest data, it is the sixth-most popular ETF for Australian investors, with close to $8 billion in assets under management.

NDQ is a fine ETF to be sure, and one that I used to own myself. It has delivered some shockingly high growth numbers in recent years to boot. So today, let’s discuss two reasons why you might want to buy the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF, and one reason not to.

2 reasons to buy the ASX’s NDQ ETF

An investment in some of the world’s best stocks

The Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF simply represents an investment in some of the world’s best companies. It is technically an index fund, holding the largest non-financial shares on the American NASDAQ stock exchange. The Nasdaq is the exchange that is famous for housing most of the top tech stocks in the US.

It counts Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Amazon – the Magnificent 7 – as its largest holdings for one. But it also houses plenty of other high-performing stocks, ranging from Netflix, Texas Instruments and Broadcom to Costco, Shopify and Booking Holdings.

It’s a cross-section of the best tech companies the US has to offer. Given that the ASX is relatively light when it comes to tech, this can be particularly useful, not to mention lucrative, for Australian investors.

NDQ’s ASX performance

As we touched on earlier, the ASX’s NDQ fund has been an exceptional investment to have owned in recent years. As of 31 October, this fund has returned an average of 30.6% per annum over three years, and 20.4% per annum over the past five.

Since its May 2015  inception, NDQ unitholders have enjoyed an average return of 20.6% per annum.

Those are extraordinary numbers. Whilst past performance is never a guarantee of future results, no one can argue that NDQ’s holdings haven’t proven exceptionally gifted at rewarding shareholders up to this point.

So why not buy this ETF?

At first, and second glance, this ETF looks like a screaming buy for any ASX investor who doesn’t have exposure to US tech stocks. Or just those who like ot invest in fast-growing stocks.

However, there is one reason why I think some ASX investors might want to look for alternatives. It’s the price. NDQ is a high-quality ETF. But it charges a commensurate price. Investors pay a not-insignificant 0.48% per annum to have their money tied up in this fund.

Now, if you want this Nasdaq-specific exposure on the ASX, NDQ is basically your only choice. But it is not if you jump over to the US markets themselves.

These days, most ASX brokers offer cheap access to buying US stocks.

If you are willing to do that, you can get easy exposure to the Nasdaq for a vastly lower price compared to the ASX’s NDQ. A popular choice is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which charges less than half of what NDQ does at just 0.2% per annum.

I myself go with the Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: SCHG). Although this ETF is not a Nasdaq-tracking index fund, it is very similar in its tech exposure, and shares all of NDQ’s top holdings. I chose it for the minuscule management fee of 0.04% per annum.

Now, it’s understandable that many ASX investors might want to keep things as simple as possible and stick with the ASX’s NDQ ETF for their US tech exposure. And, judging by what the past ten years have delivered, that’s probably not a bad way to go.

The post 2 reasons to buy the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ), and 1 not to appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, and Schwab Strategic Trust – Schwab U.s. Large-Cap Growth ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Booking Holdings, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Shopify, Tesla, and Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Broadcom and has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Booking Holdings, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB) took a significant tumble this week after the company announced that takeover talks with Danish private equity company EQT and CVC Asia Pacific had fallen through.

The company was forced to reveal that a potential deal was in the works last month, when the Australian Financial Review published an article stating that talks were ongoing.

AUB informed the ASX at the time that discussions about a potential buyout commenced on September 13, when EQT initially offered $43 per share, which was subsequently increased to $45 per share.

The $45 potential offer was a massive 40.2% premium to AUB’s previous closing price, and the stock naturally traded higher on the news.

Bidders walk away

AUB cautioned its shareholders at the time that there was no guarantee a formal bid for the company would arise; however, on Monday, it revealed that talks had ceased.

As AUB said on Monday:

The consortium has advised that it does not intent to proceed with a binding proposal at a price of $45 per share. Accordingly the parties have agreed to terminate discussions. The AUB board believes that a price of $45 per share appropriately values AUB in the current market environment.

The company’s Managing Director, Michael Emmett, said on Monday that the company continued to “deliver robust performance, underpinned by a clear strategy and disciplined execution”.

He added:

The recent due diligence process, while demanding, has reaffirmed our confidence in our improvement initiatives and long-term growth prospects. Now that discussions with the consortium have ended, our board and management team are full focussed on advancing our portfolio of organic growth initiatives and acquisition opportunities. We remain confident in AUB Group’s forecast FY26 financial performance and see significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond.

The AUB share price fell sharply when the news was announced this week, dropping from $37.25 at Friday’s close to $30.63 on Monday.

Shares cheap at these levels

But the team at Jarden for one say this creates a compelling buying opportunity.

The Jarden team say the prospects for further merger and acquisition activity in the Australian insurance sector remain high, and they also like AUB on a standalone basis.

As they said in a note to clients:

Despite the deal failing to proceed, we think prospects for M&A in the domestic broker sector are likely to remain elevated. Australian broking consolidation has intensified in recent years … With this elevated level of sector corporate activity, we think AUB would remain well-positioned to be a participant given its scale as Australia’s second largest broker, and proven track record of value-accretive acquisitions.

And while the failure of the takeover might have been disappointing for shareholders, Jarden’s target price of $37.80 per AUB share remains well above current levels.

Combined with the company’s dividend yield, the Jarden team are forecasting a total shareholder return over 12 months of 26.8%.

As they said:

We see the share price reaction as a short-term reset in market expectations rather than any change in fundamentals. The underlying business outlook remains supportive despite the moderating premium rate cycle. AUB appears confident on both the organic growth outlook, as well as the potential for further acquisitions.

AUB is an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) company comprised of a group of retail and wholesale insurance brokers and underwriting agencies, which operates in about 580 locations globally, according to its website.

The company was founded in 1985 and now serves approximately one million clients, managing over $11 billion in insurance premiums.

AUB was valued at $3.57 billion at the close of trade on Monday.

The post This insurance company is a compelling buy, despite a takeover falling through, analysts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why AUB, Titomic, Treasury Wine, and Woodside shares are rising today
• Why ASX, AUB, Dyno Nobel, and HMC shares are sinking today
• AUB Group holds its AGM
• New supporter joins in takeover talks for this insurance major
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aub Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are 0.53% higher at the time of writing in Tuesday lunchtime trade, at $34.38 a piece. Over the past month the bank’s shares have fallen 6.99% and they’re now 20.25% higher for the year-to-date.

While the major bank’s share price has been mostly positive over the past year, analysts at Macquarie think ANZ is showing early signs of revenue underperformance.

Here’s what the broker had to say in a recent note to investors.

Headwinds ahead for ANZ shares

Overall, analysts said that business credit remains strong, at around 9% annualised and on a three-month rolling rate. This is primarily driven by agriculture and real estate credit growth. 

Meanwhile, investor mortgage growth continues to surge, annualising at over 10%, the highest level since 2015. 

Term deposit costs are also favorable. With the banks focusing their competition on savings deposits, term deposits have become less competitive. 

But when it comes to winners and losers among the bunch of Australian banks, ANZ falls short. 

“ANZ is showing early signs of revenue underperformance, lagging behind peers in mortgage (~0.5x), business (~0x) and deposit growth,” Macquarie analysts said in the investor note.

While still early, and consistent with ANZ’s guidance for below system mortgage growth in 2026, it could suggest ANZ’s strategy reset is weighing on underlying performance.

Elsewhere, the broker said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is arguably the best performer, gaining share in all segments. Meanwhile National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) see strong growth in their business lending. 

Mortgage credit growth remains negative for regional banks, with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shrinking 5-9% over the three-month period. The broker notes that Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) has continued to grow its business credit by around 10%.

What’s Macquarie’s outlook for the bank sector?

The broker said that pre-provision earnings trends were generally better across the banks. It added that recent data has been incrementally positive, including better credit growth and lower funding costs (although this has been partly offset by deposit switching), which suggests a potential upside risk to FY26 consensus earnings. 

ANZ and NAB remain our preferred exposures in the sector; however, if ANZ’s balance sheet underperformance continues, it could suggest risk to consensus revenue expectations.

Macquarie has a neutral rating on ANZ shares with a target price of $35.00. At the time of writing this implies a potential 1.8% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

The post ANZ shares are lagging the other big banks: Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are CBA shares a good buy amid rising interest rates?
• Why does the CBA share price keep falling? – Expert
• Buy, hold, sell: Aristocrat, CBA, and Life360 shares
• Why did CBA shares get smashed in November?
• Why these ASX 200 shares crashed 10%+ in November

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a small gain. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.3% to 8,591 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

The Catapult Sports share price is down 9% to $4.68. This is despite there being no news out of the sports technology company. However, it is worth noting that Japanese giant Fujitsu made an announcement yesterday which could potentially have some impact on Catapult’s business. It has launched the Fujitsu Accelerator Program for SPORTS, which is “a global partner co-creation program aimed at fostering new innovation in the sports sector.” One area of focus will be “data analysis and collection for team sports.”

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

The Collins Foods share price is down 1.5% to $11.40. This follows the release of the KFC restaurant operator’s half year results for FY 2026 this morning. Although Collins Foods delivered strong profit growth and upgraded its guidance, it wasn’t enough for some investors. It seems that this and more were already priced in given its strong share price gain in 2025. Year to date, the Collins Foods share price remains up approximately 55%.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

The Guzman Y Gomez share price is down almost 4% to $22.36. This burrito seller’s shares have been under significant selling pressure this year. So much so, they are now down by approximately 45% since the start of the year. Valuation concerns and disappointing progress in the US market have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. It is also worth noting that Guzman Y Gomez is one of the most shorted ASX shares at present. At the last count, the company had 12.3% of its shares held short.

Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)

The Pantoro Gold share price is down 12% to $4.75. This has been driven by news that one of its largest shareholders has sold down its holding. This morning, the gold miner advised that Tulla Resources has sold 25.8 million shares in the company. Commenting on the sale, non-executive director and associate of Tulla Resources, Mark Maloney, said: “Tulla Resources has undertaken this sale as part of a strategy to return capital to its Principals and to free funding for its other resource projects. Tulla Resources retains a significant shareholding in Pantoro Gold, representing 6.11% of the register and is committed to the long-term success of the Company. At this time, we have no intention to sell any further shares. I will continue as a non-executive director and remain strongly supportive of the Company’s growth strategy and future.”

The post Why Catapult, Collins Foods, Guzman Y Gomez, and Pantoro shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Collins Foods. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rare earths miner closed yesterday trading for $14.70. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $15.07 apiece, up 2.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.

With today’s intraday gains factored in, Lynas Rare Earths shares are now up a whopping 130.6% year to date.

Lynas has been a direct beneficiary as demand for the critical rare earth elements – Neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) – it produces soars as Western nations seek to end China’s stranglehold on rare earths supplies.

Both elements are crucial in the production of everything from smartphones to wind turbines to electric vehicles, alongside numerous military applications.

Lynas Rare Earths shares well-placed for more outsized gains

Looking to the year ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect more outperformance from the ASX 200 stock.

That’s despite the significant power disruptions Lynas reported on 25 November, which negatively impacted production at its Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility in Western Australia.

Management advised on the day that the power disruptions will also affect the production of finished goods at Lynas’ Malaysian facility.

Following the 25 November power issues, Macquarie noted:

While the exact impact has not been disclosed, we note that the operation was running in batch production mode prior to these power issues. LYC is working with the WA government to improve grid stability and is also evaluating off-grid solutions.

And the broker doesn’t expect investors will see a materially negative impact on Lynas Rare Earths shares.

Macquarie said:

The Kalgoorlie disruption coincides with a planned major shutdown at the cracking and leaching facility in Malaysia, leading to production losses in 2QFY26. The company expects to lose approximately one month of output but plans to maintain sales through inventory drawdown.

We estimate NdPr production of 1.7kt in the December quarter, followed by output recovery in 2HFY26.

Noting that it expects the NdPr market to remain tight, the broker said, “We forecast LYC to sell 9kt of NdPr in FY26, supported by its ~7ktpa Malaysian facility and additional volumes from Kalgoorlie.”

Connecting the dots, Macquarie maintained its outperformance rating on Lynas Rare Earths shares with a $17.00 12-month price target. That’s almost 13% above current levels.

“We expect the NdPr market to remain tight fundamentally, driven by solid demand and supply disruptions. LYC remains the largest ex-China REE producer,” Macquarie concluded.

The post Up 131% in 2025, why Macquarie expects Lynas Rare Earths shares to keep outperforming in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.