Category: Stock Market

The Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) and Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share prices both experienced falls following the release of their business updates. Despite both having partially rebounded since then, they are still trading below their pre-market update prices. Given the strong historic share price performance of these 2 market darlings, could this sell off still represent an opportunity to buy for the long term? 

Altium business update 

In Altium’s most recent business update on 12 May, the company’s CEO Aram Mirkazemi commented:

As the governments of the US and Western Europe continue to wrestle with containing the virus, we believe that the prolongation of restrictions is likely to impact Altium during May and June. While engineers are actively doing prototype designs, and the electronics industry is holding up relatively well, the cash preservation priorities of small to medium size businesses are likely to affect the timing of closing sales in our typically strongest months of the year being May and especially June.

The update also went on to state that Altium is highly unlikely to achieve its long-term aspirational goal of US$200 million revenue for the full year. 

So is the Altium share price in the buy zone?

Following this disappointing yet not entirely unexpected news, the Altium share price fell a little over 5% last week before rebounding this week to close the gap to only 3% lower than its pre-market update price. Its market darling status allowed the company to avoid what could have otherwise been a more significant sell off.

The key risks facing prospective Altium investors are the company’s current expensive valuation and the unknowns regarding its May and June performance. I would personally avoid Altium shares at this point in time and wait for more concrete information regarding how it fares over the coming months. Having said that, I also believe its high profile market status could result in investors largely ignoring the company’s short-term headwinds. This may allow Altium’s share price to remain more stable during this volatile period. 

Xero’s full year earnings 

At face value, Xero delivered a strong full year result that highlighted a 30% increase in operating revenue, a 26% increase in subscribers and a maiden net profit of NZ$3.3 million. However, the company outlined the difficult times ahead for many of its clients due to the ongoing economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Xero noted that March trading resulted in some reduction in annualised monthly recurring revenue as many of its small business customers were hit hard by COVID-19 restrictions. That said, many other fintech companies such as Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Tyro Payments Ltd (ASX: TYR) also witnessed sales and transaction values trough in March, before rebounding in April. 

Is the current Xero share price in the buy zone?

There are plenty of growth avenues and areas of planned strategic investment to support Xero’s continued success over the long term. This was outlined in its full year presentation, with key areas of strategic focus including driving cloud accounting, expanding its small business platform and building the company for global scale and innovation.

Personally, I believe its future opportunities and global expansion still make Xero an appealing long-term investment, despite its current, eye-watering valuation. 

More reading

• 3 fantastic ASX shares to buy now to get rich later
• Should you throw $3,000 into Altium shares today?
• Are Xero shares a top long-term buy?
• 2 millionaire-maker ASX internet growth shares
• Where to invest $500 in ASX shares right now

Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Tyro Payments and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO and Altium. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX share prices have been hit hard in 2020, and we’ve seen price to earnings (P/E) ratios plummet. The P/E ratio is a classic metric used by investors around the world to judge the relative value of different shares. But in the current climate, does the ratio tell us anything about ASX shares?

What is the price to earnings ratio?

As the name suggests, a P/E ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s share price by its earnings per share (EPS). EPS can be measured as either a trailing EPS (from the last reporting period) or a forward EPS (projected for the next reporting period). Depending on which of these is used in the denominator, we can derive either a forward P/E or trailing P/E.

Do P/E ratios tell us anything about ASX shares in 2020?

Now, ASX share prices have been hammered in 2020 which means the ‘P’ in the ratio is falling lower. On top of that, earnings look set to slump in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic shutdown.

This means it’s logical that P/E ratios for ASX shares are falling across the board. This is particularly the case in the hardest-hit sectors like media and travel.

For instance, the Southern Cross Media Group Ltd (ASX: SXL) shares are trading at just 3.38 times earnings. Similarly, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) trades at a P/E ratio of 6.10. Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) is trading at 15.61 times earnings which, whilst higher than Southern Cross and Flight Centre, is still lower than the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) average.

Under normal circumstances, this would suggest that all three of these ASX dividend shares could be great value buys. However, thanks to COVID-19, I think the earnings component (E) will be slashed lower in 2020. The pandemic response has reduced earnings for many of these groups to a trickle of what they were in 2019. That means that P/E ratios (and dividend yields) may not help you to value your favourite ASX shares right now.

In other words, because P/E ratios are often a lagging indicator, valuing shares like Webjet, Flight Centre and Southern Cross based on this metric can be misleading. 

So… how should we value ASX shares?

If we can’t rely on P/E ratios right now, what’s the alternative? 

One quantitative option is to look at the balance sheet strength of companies instead of earnings. Low levels of debt and a strong asset base could pay dividends in the current climate. Companies with a combination of these two things are in a more stable position with less strain on their finances from other parties, like banks.

Another option is to sit tight and wait for the August earnings season. This will provide a better idea of expected and actual earnings, but it would mean staying out of the market for 3.5 months. 

Foolish takeaway

P/E ratios can be misleading at the moment, but that doesn’t make them useless. Some companies’ earnings will remain steady despite COVID-19 but I’d be treading lightly when valuing ASX shares in this market.

More reading

• Why this ASX funeral share is well positioned for future growth
• ASX 200 down 0.2%: Big four banks lower and TPG announces demerger plans
• Positive signs for Australia’s jobs market as ABS data points to a recovery
• Is the Newcrest Mining share price in the buy zone?
• Are ASX bank shares worth buying despite dividend cuts?

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Can we value ASX shares with P/E ratios in 2020? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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Ask any ASX investor who are their go-to investing experts, and you will likely hear the same names pop up time and time again: Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and Ray Dalio.

There’s no doubt all three of these investing experts have carved out hugely successful careers in investing. But each has done so in their own unique and distinctive way.

Often, the teachings of these experts will contradict each other. It can make following them a little confusing at times. So how does one manage to tread a path between these fonts of wisdom?

There’s no right answer with investing

The key thing to remember when it comes to investing is that there is no ‘right way’ to go about it. You can be a very successful growth investor, value investor or even speculator (although we Fools think this is more about luck than anything else).

Investing is also about finding the best practice that works for you.

Take Warren Buffett.

Buffett is known as the king of value investing because of his love of buying top-notch companies when they’re temporarily out of favour, or as he once put it “on the operating table”. Buffett only sticks to stocks and regularly disparages other assets like gold and bonds.

Peter Lynch was also a stock picker. He managed his phenomenal track record by uncovering growth companies that others hadn’t come across yet.

Lynch didn’t so much evaluate a company’s past to determine its future value (like Buffett), but rather whether people on the street were talking about it or using its products. In this way, he was able to find a winner and stick with it until the market eventually cottoned on too.

But hedge-fund titan Ray Dalio takes a very different approach to investing.

Dalio is a student of history and economics and loves using different asset classes like gold, bonds and shares to balance risk. He was able to do this so successfully (including through the GFC) that his hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is now the largest in the world.

How to learn from the investing experts

None of these investing experts have similar modus operandi, yet all have achieved resounding success with their investing.

The best way to draw inspiration from them is to first work out which kind of investor you’d like to be. Then you can better determine which of the investing legends’ lessons you can apply to help hone your investing skills.

If you’re a value investor, you could draw mostly from Buffett, maybe looking at beaten-down blue-chips like Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL).

But you’d also benefit from how Peter Lynch discovers a future winner, perhaps by looking at retail success stories like Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV).

If you like the kind of macro-investing Dalio favours, you can draw from him by investing in alternative asset classes to balance risk. Dalio likes asset ETFs like the ETFS Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) for example.

Meanwhile, you could also appreciate how Buffett waits for a great price to pay for a company Peter Lynch might have loved. You can always ‘cross-reference’.

Investing greatness isn’t mutually exclusive. There’s nothing stopping you from drawing inspiration from as many investing greats as you can find!

More reading

• 5 ASX 200 dividend shares for an economic recovery
• 3 industries that may never recover from COVID-19
• How this $70m ASX small cap is cutting down a $50bn industry
• Broker tips 10 ASX 200 shares for a post-coronavirus recovery
• Why I think Premier Investments is the best retail share on the ASX

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Premier Investments Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Buffett? Lynch? Here are the investing experts you should take advice from when buying ASX shares appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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It has been an eventful day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). After sinking lower in early trade, the benchmark index is trading roughly flat at 5,557.6 points at the time of writing.

Four shares that have not let that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are storming higher:

The ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ) share price is up almost 5% to $6.92. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Credit Suisse this morning. According to the note, the broker has upgraded the testing services company’s shares to an outperform rating with an $8.00 price target. It made the move ahead of its results release next week.

The Clover Corporation Limited (ASX: CLV) share price has jumped 12% to $2.51. Investors have been buying the infant formula ingredients company’s shares following the release of a positive trading update. Clover revealed that it has recently experienced a surge in demand and expects this to continue in the fourth quarter. Strong sales of infant formula products during the pandemic is driving the demand for ingredients.

The Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU) share price is up 4% to $12.66. This follows the release of an update by the share registry company after the market close on Tuesday. Computershare revealed that the majority of its businesses are operating resiliently during the pandemic. As such, it has reaffirmed its management earnings per share guidance of a 20% decline in FY 2020.

The EML Payments Ltd (ASX: EML) share price has rocketed 15% higher to $3.78. This morning the payments company released an update for the third quarter and April. Although it has been facing large headwinds, revenue and EBITDA were up 20% and 24% financial year to date at the end of March. The company also revealed that it made an operating profit during the month of April.

More reading

• ASX 200 down 0.2%: Big four banks lower and TPG announces demerger plans
• Why this ASX infant formula share is surging 14% higher today
• Why the EML Payments share price is rocketing over 12% higher today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• 3 Warren Buffett ASX dividend shares to buy right now

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Clover Limited and Emerchants Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Emerchants Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Why ALS, Clover, Computershare, & EML Payments shares are storming higher appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) share price soared as much as 30.23% higher this morning on the back of a trading update. The company provided further insight into how the business is tracking in the wake of COVID-19 and re-established its FY20 earnings guidance.

About Alliance Aviation Services

Alliance provides contract, charter and allied aviation services across Australia to mining, energy, tourism and government sectors.

Its customer base includes S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) names like South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

The company owns a fleet of around 40 aircraft and completed 19,710 flying hours in the first half of FY20. 

What did Alliance announce?

This morning, Alliance revealed it has experienced a significant increase in demand for charter flights and expects to deliver its strongest charter revenue result in many years. The company attributed this uptick in demand to a combination of social distancing and a lack of available scheduled flights by other operators.

As a result, Alliance has welcomed a significant number of new resources sector clients and expects this level of charter revenue to continue through FY21.

Although travel restrictions have impacted inbound tourism contract revenue, Alliance has been able to capitalise on additional demand for flights in the resources sector. Implementing measures such as health screening of passengers, temperature checks, and specific seating plans, the company has actually increased its flight schedules of contracted clients.

In terms of its wet leasing division, Alliance has an agreement in place with Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH) to provide aircraft and crew and operate services on Virgin’s behalf. As Virgin is still in voluntary administration, this agreement remains suspended. Alliance noted it is not expecting any wet leasing activity for the remainder of FY20 and anticipates limited demand for these services in FY21.

FY20 outlook

By way of a trading update on 20 March 2020, Alliance outlined the impact of COVID-19 on its operations at the time and accordingly, suspended FY20 earnings guidance.

According to the company, now that the impact of COVID-19 has somewhat stabilised, it is in a position to provide earnings guidance for FY20. Alliance now expects to report full-year profit before tax in excess of $40 million. At the very least, a result of $40 million would represent 22% growth on the $32.8 million achieved in FY19.

More reading

• Why investing in these COVID-19 stricken ASX shares won’t be the same again for a very long time
• ASX 200 climbs 1% in positive start to the week
• Virgin narrows its shortlist down to 4 suitors
• 5 ASX 200 winners and 5 losers of the week
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower

Motley Fool contributor Cathryn Goh has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The post Small-cap ASX aviation share soars 30% higher as it re-establishes earnings guidance appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The InvoCare Limited (ASX:IVC) share price has continued its recent upward trend this morning and is trading for $11.17, driven higher by the widespread gains of the S&P/ASX200 Index (ASX:XJO) more broadly.

At the time of writing, the funeral home operator is trading at a 25% discount compared to its pre-COVID-19 highs of $14.92 earlier this year.

Although some investors may view the funerals industry as a controversial addition to their portfolio, here are 3 reasons I believe the current InvoCare share price has significant potential to outperform in the medium to long-term:

Successful capital raising

On 14 April, InvoCare announced it would tap institutional investors for $150 million total equity in the company at a price of $10.40 per share. The company cited that the raising would “provide enhanced support for its growth initiatives and further strengthen its balance sheet.”

The next day, however, the company revealed that over-subscription of the placement by investors had prompted its expansion to $200 million. This 25% enlargement suggests that there was significant demand for InvoCare shares and may be considered a positive indication that investors see sizeable growth opportunities for the company moving forward.

Track record of strong financial performance

The widespread impacts of COVID-19 will inevitably disrupt the short-term business operations of companies such as InvoCare. Despite this, the company’s track-record of stellar financial performance should provide investors with optimism that it will survive the challenging contemporary economic environment.

In its FY19 annual report to shareholders, InvoCare saw sales revenue rise by 3.5% to approximately $490 million, operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew by 21.4%, and net profits substantially increased by a whopping 54% relative to FY18. These figures were accompanied by a fully franked dividend of 41 cents per share, thus representing an annual dividend yield of 2.9%.

Lastly, InvoCare’s FY19 report discussed the acquisition of several regional funeral facilities as part of its overall growth strategy, including the purchase of Heritage Funerals (QLD) and Batemans Bay & Moruya District Funerals (NSW). These businesses will likely add to the 30% of existing market share that InvoCare currently holds in the funeral home industry.

This robust financial performance in FY19, combined with InvoCare’s fruitful acquisitions strategy, provide considerable opportunities for investors to benefit from the long-term earnings growth and profitability of the company.

Ageing population

According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 15% of the Australian population was included in the 65 and over category as of 2017, with this proportion of older demographics expected to inflate to 8.7 million people (22%) by 2056. If this projection is accurate, InvoCare appears well-placed to benefit from an ageing population. In the FY19 annual report, InvoCare CEO Martin Earp summarised this current demographic trend by stating:

The populations in our core geographical markets of Australia, New Zealand and Singapore are growing and ageing, with the first wave of the so-called baby boomer generation now impacting on anticipated death volumes. This positive demand profile is forecast to continue for at least two more decades.

To effectively meet this additional demand for funeral services, the company has embarked on a $200 million refurbishment program known as ‘Protect & Grow’. As of April 2020, 106 locations had undergone various improvements, and a further 74 sites are expected to benefit from renovations in FY20. Of particular interest, the Protect & Grow venture has seen mixed responses from shareholders, perhaps owing to their concerns that the up-front debt is weighing down the company balance sheet. This has arguably kept the share price lower in recent months.

However, I believe that this investment in the company’s infrastructure should be viewed positively by investors. InvoCare has recognised the long-term demand opportunities an ageing population provides, and is adapting accordingly to distribute the ensuing profitability of this demographic shift to its shareholders.

Foolish takeaway  

Fresh off its over-subscribed capital raise, I believe InvoCare is well-placed to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic in a position of strength. The company has a significant portion of market share in a growing industry and has demonstrated a desire to further expand in the coming years through acquisitions and internal investment via the Protect & Grow strategy.

Although this company may be a buy-and-hold for the medium to long-term, I believe there is significant upside for prospective investors to include InvoCare shares in their portfolio.

More reading

• ASX 200 down 0.2%: Big four banks lower and TPG announces demerger plans
• Positive signs for Australia’s jobs market as ABS data points to a recovery
• Is the Newcrest Mining share price in the buy zone?
• Are ASX bank shares worth buying despite dividend cuts?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Toby Thomas owns shares of InvoCare Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended InvoCare Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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