Category: Stock Market

It’s not the 98% plunge in traffic through Australia’s once-bustling airport that will be keeping shareholders in Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD) on edge.

It’s the battle between state premiers on boarder restrictions that will be a bigger sentiment driver for the airport as investors grapple with the fact that the company’s income isn’t as diversified as management claims it to be.

I’ll explain more of this later.

Clipped wings

The near-total freeze on domestic and international air travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic meant that only 92,000 passengers moved through Sydney Airport in April this year.

In contrast, 3.7 million flowed through its terminals during the same month in 2019.

Of the total numbers last month, 49,000 were domestic travellers, representing a 98% drop from April 2019.

Caught in the crossfire

The pressure is building on state premiers to allow Australian visitors from beyond their borders to return. This could happen in June although Queensland is the holdout.

Businesses and the federal government are pressuring Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. She’s warning against restarting the tourism industry while our two most populous states of Victoria and New South Wales continue to report cases of community transmission, reported the Australian Financial Review.

The sunshine state indicated it may not welcome travellers from the southern states until at least September.

Meanwhile, NSW will allow its residents to holiday anywhere within the state from June 1, although that isn’t going to help Sydney airport or airlines like Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN).

“New normal” for travel stocks

The airlines have flagged their own “new normal” for when services eventually resume. As a safety precaution, Qantas and Virgin Australia Holdings Limited will issue masks to passengers but won’t make wearing them compulsory.

The airlines will also stagger boarding and disembarkation (sounds like more bad news for cattle class passengers!), do more cleaning and have hand sanitisers in readily accessible places.

What they won’t do is leave empty seats for social distancing as Qantas’ boss Alan Joyce warned this will force ticket prices to surge nine-fold.

“L” not “V” shape recovery

It will be a long time before things go back to anything resembling pre-coronavirus, especially for Sydney Airport.

I am not even talking about the return of international travellers either as that will take many more months through a multi-stage comeback.

Eggs in different baskets but same trolley

Airport management boasted about its diverse income streams during its February results. Passenger traffic was flat but underlying earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped 4%.

This was due to rents it collects from retail, hotel and car hire companies. But even as domestic traveller return, the airport may have to contend with a second battle front.

Retailers are gearing up for a bitter fight with shopping centre landlords and structural change is in the air!

If retailers manage to secure significantly lower rents and change how mega malls charge for space, as I suspect, then I believe tenants at the airport will expect a similar treatment.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• ASX 200 climbs 1% in positive start to the week
• 2 high yield ASX dividend shares to buy for 2021
• 3 industries that may never recover from COVID-19
• Virgin narrows its shortlist down to 4 suitors

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you’re looking for market-beating returns over the long term, then I think the healthcare sector is a great place to start.

This is because there are a number of quality options in the space which look well-placed for strong long term growth thanks to favourable sector tailwinds and their leading products.

Three ASX healthcare shares I would buy and hold are listed below:

CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

CSL is a biotherapeutics company which I think would be a great long term investment. It is made up of two businesses – CSL Behring and Seqirus. CSL Behring is the global leader in plasma therapies and Seqirus is the second largest influenza vaccines company globally. I believe both businesses are well-positioned for growth over the next decade thanks to their leading products and burgeoning research and development pipelines. Combined, I expect CSL to deliver solid earnings growth for the foreseeable future.

Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN)

Another healthcare share to consider with a long term view is Nanosonics. I’m a big for the infection control specialist due to its trophon EPR disinfection system for ultrasound probes and its upcoming product launches. While not a lot is known about these new products, management notes that they have similar market opportunities to the trophon EPR system. If they are anywhere near as successful, they could underpin strong earnings growth for a long time to come.

Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC)

Times have been hard for Ramsay Health Care and things are unlikely to get easier in the immediate term. However, the market already understands this and has priced this into its shares. In light of this, I think now could be an opportune time to make a long term investment. After all, Ramsay’s long term outlook looks very positive due to increasing demand for its services globally because of ageing populations and increasing chronic disease burden. In addition to this, I suspect the company could bolster its growth with further acquisitions in the future. All in all, I expect its shares to be market beaters over the next decade or two.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 blue chip shares I would buy today
• If you invested $10,000 in the Ramsay Health Care IPO, this is how much you’d have now
• How you can get very rich with ASX 200 shares
• How to invest $10,000 in ASX 200 shares today
• Should ASX investors just buy ETF index funds for better returns?

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. and Nanosonics Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nanosonics Limited and Ramsay Health Care Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The crude oil price has risen by 30% since last Monday, 11 May. The easing of restrictions across large swathes of the world has raised hope of gradual increases in demand. Chinese oil demand, in particular, has risen to pre-pandemic levels. 

Moreover, the Saudi Arabia-Russia crude oil price feud has come to an end. Add to this the positive news related to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and oil and gas investors believe they can breathe freely again.

The damage has been done, however. On Monday, the US Energy Information Administration stated that US shale oil production would drop by record levels in June. Well economics and the continuing ravages of the coronavirus continue to batter the industry. While this is unfortunate for US shale oil producers, it will likely drive further short-term rises in the crude oil price on futures contracts.

Who stands to gain?

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price has already jumped by 11% this week since Monday. At present, Santos’ price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is still at 10.26. I believe this is still a reasonable ratio given the company is very well managed. It has a strong LNG hedge and is targeting break-even cash costs of less than the current crude oil price. 

The Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) share price has had an upward burst of 5% since Monday. Origin recently announced a strategic move to structurally lower operating costs. It also has a $100 million additional cost out program in place and has defensive qualities as Australia’s largest gas retailer. At a P/E of 9.84, this is 6 points below its 10-year average.

As with Origin, the Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) share price has jumped up 6% since Monday. The largest of the 3, Woodside has a current P/E of 39.53 reflecting the company’s forward growth plans. This is lower than the company’s 10-year average P/E. However, it doesn’t matter so much with Woodside. The market clearly sees this company as a growth opportunity.

In truth, Australia owes a debt of gratitude to the Woodside management teams over the past 2 decades in particular. After inventing the LNG industry in Australia, this company is the driving reason why our country has become the world leader in LNG production in January of this year. 

Foolish takeaway

While oil price futures have started to rebound significantly, this is somewhat divorced from the reality of the physical oil market. The world still has a glut of oil. Moreover, the US is still far from pre-pandemic activity.

Since March, trying to forecast market trends is a fool’s errand. Nonetheless, positive sentiment within the market is likely to continue the crude oil price rise at least over the remainder of May, possibly into early June. Even so, of the 3 major energy ASX shares I favour Santos. It benefits directly from a higher oil price; far more than Woodside or Origin. 

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Should you invest $1,000 in Woodside Petroleum shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• 3 ASX 200 shares to watch this week
• Why Aristocrat Leisure, Newcrest, Santos, & Zip Co shares are charging higher

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Is the Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) share price a buy with traffic returning to the roads around Australia’s capital cities?

Life is starting to return to normal around Australia and one of those elements is that road traffic is starting to return.

The last couple of months have been tough for Transurban. There’s a reason why the Transurban share price fell 38% in around a month. Traffic was expected to fall heavily and it did.

In the week of 26 April 2020 Transurban saw a 44% decline of traffic across its entire network because of the coronavirus. But restrictions are starting to lift and schools are opening up again.

Is the Transurban share price a buy?

Since that low on 19 March 2020 the Transurban share price has actually risen 37.6% so it has recovered more than half of the lost ground.

Will it keep going and get back to its pre-coronavirus level? There’s two big factors to consider.

The first is that interest rates are now incredibly low. That should, theoretically, push asset prices up higher than they would have otherwise been. This should help boost Transurban’s fair value share price. 

But most importantly – what are the traffic numbers going to be over the next 12 months? Will there continue to be a big reduction of traffic with people working at home? Other drivers may want to save a few dollars and avoid toll roads if they’re being cautious with spending.

Or will life somehow miraculously get back to normal before the end of 2020?

Obviously these considerations are very important for the Transurban share price and traffic is key for the Transurban distribution.

Foolish takeaway

At this stage it’s hard to say which way things are going to go for Transurban and its traffic numbers. That’s why I’m happy to leave it on the sidelines for now.

More reading

• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Gold miners help edge ASX ever higher
• 3 top ASX dividend shares to buy next week
• 2 high quality ASX dividend shares for patient investors to buy now
• In a post-COVID world, could Australia be the next superpower?
• 3 ASX 200 pandemic winners and 3 losers

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Transurban Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Despite still trading lower than its 52-week high, the Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) share price has been climbing higher in 2020 as investors flock to ASX 200 gold shares. But while investors have been snapping up the Aussie gold miner, is it still in the buy zone?

Why the ASX 200 gold miner’s shares are soaring

While the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 16.83% this year, Newcrest’s value has surged 5.79%. That means the Aussie gold miner has outperformed the ASX 200 benchmark by an impressive 22.62% in 2020.

The main factor driving the Newcrest Mining share price higher is the global gold price. The value of gold has surged this year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions and an oil price war.

Investors don’t like uncertainty, and there’s been plenty of that in 2020. This means the gold price has reached multi-year highs above the US$1,750 per ounce mark on the back of strong demand. That’s good news for the Newcrest Mining share price which has climbed to $32.00 per share.

Is the Newcrest Mining share price in the buy zone?

Newcrest is a solid large-cap ASX share at the best of times. It’s worth $25.9 billion at the moment and is well inside the ASX50. However, the perceived safety of gold has supported the gold miner’s share price so far this year.

Having said that, I won’t be buying Newcrest shares. While the Aussie gold miner could continue to outperform this year, I like to invest for the long-term. It’s easy to get distracted by short-term share price movements, but it pays to remember your investment strategy and avoid the day-to-day noise.

Foolish takeaway

There are plenty of investors looking to invest in ASX gold shares right now. While a soaring gold price could support the Newcrest Mining share price in the short-term, buying shares only makes sense as part of a longer-term investment strategy.

More reading

• Are ASX bank shares worth buying despite dividend cuts?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Top brokers pick the latest ASX stocks to buy today
• Here’s why the Fortescue share price hit an all-time high today
• Is the ASX 200 getting too far ahead of itself?

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Some shares are still trading at crazy cheap prices because of the coronavirus. I think it’s worth considering if they are buys today or not.

The best time to buy shares is when they’re at much cheaper prices, which is what has happened to plenty of businesses.

Here are three shares at crazy cheap prices that could be worth looking at:

Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) 

The Challenger share price is down 57% from where it was at 21 February 2020. The annuity provider has seen a painful hit, but the company is still predicting that it can hit its profit before tax guidance in FY20 which is reassuring.

Over the long-term I do think that the lower interest rates could be harmful to Challenger as it needs to generate a return to pay the annuities. A lot of its investments are currently in bonds, which are earning a very small return. But the demographics are still in its favour. 

At the current crazy cheap share price Challenger offers a trailing grossed-up dividend yield of 11.4%.

Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) 

The Brickworks share price is down 34% since 20 February 2020. I think this is a crazy cheap price for a reliable share that has already been around for many decades.

Construction is clearly going to be affected this year as projects finish and new ones are delayed (or cancelled). However, I believe this is just a shorter-term problem and projects will return sometime next year.

In the meantime, Brickworks receives reliable cashflow from its other assets being its ‘investments’ division and 50% stake in an industrial property trust which should be able to fund the grossed-up dividend yield of 6.25% fore the foreseeable future.

Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC)

The Costa share price is down 38% from a year ago. The drought and other one-off issues caused a lot of hurt to Australia’s biggest horticultural player.

I think a share price under $3 is a crazy cheap price considering food prices are rising and Costa continues to have attractive global growth aspirations.

There has even been a bit more rain recently which could help the company as well. Whilst it doesn’t have a large dividend, it is still paying one which hopefully shows the confidence of the board in the company’s future.

Foolish takeaway

I think each of these shares are trading at crazy cheap prices for what profit they may be generating in two or three years. If I had to pick one of the three it would be Brickworks for its defensive assets and US growth prospects.

More reading

• Is the ASX 200 getting too far ahead of itself?
• 3 Warren Buffett ASX dividend shares to buy right now
• 3 ASX 200 dividend shares I’d buy today
• The 5 ASX shares that were last week’s biggest fallers
• Meet the ASX 200 company that just posted a 90% surge in profit

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of COSTA GRP FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Brickworks, Challenger Limited, and COSTA GRP FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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