Category: Stock Market

Warren Buffett has long been touted as one of, if not the, greatest investors of all time. Although he has now stepped back from running his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B), Buffett has achieved immortality by securing an average return of 19.9% per annum between 1965 and 2024. That’s almost double what the broader S&P 500 Index has managed over the same span (10.4% per annum). As such, it might surprise readers to learn that there is an ASX index fund on our own market that has topped even Buffett’s average return over the past ten years.

That ASX index fund is none other than the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ). Yep, as of 31 July, NDQ units have delivered an average of 20.87% per annum over the preceding ten years. Since its inception in May of 2015, this index fund has averaged 19.32%.

Does that make NDQ the best index fund on the ASX? Perhaps even its best investment, period?

How has this ASX ETF delivered Buffett-like returns for ten years?

Well, there’s no denying that NDQ has been a phenomenal asset to have held for at least the past 16 years. A return of around 20% per annum is real wealth-building stuff. Just look at Buffett’s net worth. But before declaring it the best investment on the ASX, let’s go deeper into how it has delivered those returns.

At its core, the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF is a simple index fund that holds the largest 100 non-financial stocks listed on the American NASDAQ exchange. The NASDAQ is one of the USA’s two major stock exchanges. The New York Stock Exchange is the historic, flagship market, holding some of America’s most storied stocks. These include General Motors, Coca-Cola Co, Procter & Gamble, and Ford Motor Company.

The NASDAQ is the NYSE’s hip younger cousin. It is more modern and has attracted many of the companies that first found success in more recent decades. That includes almost every major tech stock listed in the United States.

That’s why NDQ’s top holdings are dominated by tech. To illustrate, NDQ’s current top-ten holdings are as follows:

1. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
2. Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)
3. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)
4. Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU)
5. Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
6. Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: AMD)
7. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL)
8. Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO)
9. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
10. Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)

As almost every investor under the sun knows, tech shares have been the driving force behind much of the US’ incredible returns over the past decade or two. This ASX index fund holds the US’ largest tech stocks at even higher concentrations than the broader market. That’s why NDQ’s returns have been so Buffett-esque of late.

Foolish takeaway

I think the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF will continue to be a solid investment going forward. Depending on how tech and AI continue to unfold, it could well keep up its returns going forward. However, investors need to be cautious. Many of NDQ’s largest holdings are now in the trillion-dollar club. Whilst this highlights their success, it also places a significant handicap on their future growth potential. After all, it’s a lot easier to go from a million-dollar company to a billion than from a billion to a trillion, and so forth.

Additionally, investors need to be aware that if sentiment turns on the tech sector, this ASX index fund could be hit hard, far harder than a fund covering the broader market.

Even so, it’s hard not to conclude that the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF has been one of the best ASX investments to have owned for the past decade. Let’s see if it can keep it up going forward.

The post 20% a year: Is this the ASX’s best index fund? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, and Procter & Gamble. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Advanced Micro Devices, Berkshire Hathaway, BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended General Motors. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Advanced Micro Devices, Berkshire Hathaway, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) have fallen more than 40% over the past 12 months, but if the analysts at Macquarie are to be believed, they are in line for a re-rating.

The broker has published a new research note on the gas producer with a bullish share price target which I’ll get to shortly.

First, let’s have a look at Amplitude’s recent full-year results release.

Solid operating results from Amplitude

The Otway Basin-focussed company delivered record full-year production of 27.6 petajoules of gas, up 3% on the previous year.

Revenue meanwhile was up 7% to $285.8 million, and underlying earnings were a record $191.8 million, up 12%.  

Managing Director Jane Norman said the company was delivering on its strategy.

She added:

Amplitude Energy has delivered record financial results for the third consecutive year, underpinned by solid operational performance and continued cash flow improvement through FY26. The business remains resilient in the face of external challenges. With strong base business cash flows providing funding for our growth projects, the Company is well placed to maximise its long-term value. Record production performance was driven by Orbost, where production was increased above the plant’s previous 68 TJ/day nameplate level. Orbost has since demonstrated an ability to operate well above 70 TJ/day, recently setting a series of new production records.

Ms Norman said the company was on track to achieve “transformational growth through the East Coast Supply Project, one of the most significant sources of new domestic gas supply currently being advanced in south-east Australia”.

She added:

Our acquisition of the discovered Artisan gas field, combined with our existing Annie discovery, provides the basis for a very attractive project, with further potential near-term exploration upside from Juliet drilling. The Artisan transaction is a good example of cooperation between Otway Basin participants leading to project synergies, and was made possible in part by our strong relationship with O.G. Energy.

Amplitude is forecasting production of 26.6-28.5 petajoules of gas in FY27.

Amplitude Energy shares looking cheap

Macquarie said in its research note that 80% of Amplitude’s legacy gas was contracted for the current calendar year, along with 80% of Annie and Artisan.

Macquarie added:

Recent contracts with AGL & Energy Australia have been well timed, and reflect the prudent approach of steadily engaging high quality, well capitalised customers over time and de-risking the project. AEL now has an impressive track record of operational delivery (not the case in exploration, however this could change very soon with Juliet), and production guidance was in line with our expectations.

Macquarie has a price target of $2.45 for Amplitude Energy shares, compared with the current price of $1.62.

The post Macquarie tips this ASX gas company to jump more than 50% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• CSL shares rebound 79% from multi-year low: Here’s what brokers tip next
• Buy $5,000 of Cochlear shares today and it could be worth this much in 12 months
• Why Evolution Mining, Whitehaven and Santos shares are creating a buzz on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are climbing higher again today.

At the time of writing, the ASX biotech shares are up another 5%, and are changing hands for $165.76 a piece.

Today’s increase follows a huge 17% share price rally on Tuesday after CSL posted its FY26 results. The day goes down in history as the shares best day in 20 years.

CSL reported total revenue of US$15.8 billion and NPAT of US$2.6 billion. It also recorded a net loss after tax of US$2.6 billion for FY26, coming from pre-tax impairments and restructuring costs. 

The result came in way ahead of guidance. In May, the company cut its FY26 revenue guidance to around US$15.2 billion and NPAT to around US$3.1 billion. IT also flagged US$5 billion of impairments.

CSL management describes FY26 as a ‘reset year’, with FY27 marking a return to growth.

Clearly investors are thrilled with the update, and many are rushing to snap up the shares while they’re still trading for cheap.

CSL shares have now rebounded 79% from a multi-year low of $92.24 each in early-June. They’re now just 4% lower for the year-to-date, but still around 27% lower than 12 months ago.

Can they keep climbing higher?

Here’s what the experts think.

What’s the outlook for CSL shares over the next 12 months?

I think there is a lot of potential for the company to grow over the next few years. CSL is operating in a high-growth market, and its blood plasma division dominates the market for rare blood disorders and immunoglobulin products.

The company’s growth initiatives are clearly working, but it’s likely it will take a while longer to see the financial benefits.

I think we’ll see an upside ahead, but I don’t think we’ll see a material increase in the share price from here until we get more visibility into the company’s earnings over the first half of FY27.

It’s possible that some experts could revise their outlook on CSL shares in the coming days, off the back of the company’s results announcement.

But at the moment, forecasts suggest that they’re on the fence.

Market Index data shows that the majority have a hold rating on CSL shares. The $132 average target price now implies a potential 20% downside, after this week’s share price rally.

It’s the same case on TradingView. The majority (10 out of 17) have a hold rating on the stock. However, the other seven rate CSL shares as a buy/strong buy.

The average $160.28 target price is higher, but it still implies a potential downside of around 3%, at the time of writing.

However the range between the maximum and minimum target price is quite large. Some tip the shares to climb another 26% to $206.91 but others think CSL shares could drop 35% to just $106.80 over the next 12 months.

The post CSL shares rebound 79% from multi-year low: Here’s what brokers tip next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• CSL shares just had their best day in 20 years. What did I just miss?
• Is the CSL share price in the buy zone after the biotech giant’s results?
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• CSL shares surge 18% as ‘reset year’ points to a return to growth

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) shares are up around 1% and changing hands at $141.96 a piece, at the time of writing on Wednesday morning.

The latest increase comes off the back of a 8% share price hike on Tuesday, following the company’s latest FY26 results announcement.

Cochlear posted a 2% increase in sales revenue and a 22% decrease in its underlying net profit, which came in right at the top end of guidance.

There were some significant positives though. Cochlear’s operating cash flow surged $130 million to $368 million, while free cash flow also improved substantially. The company also continued to invest aggressively in research and development, lifting R&D spending 15% as it accelerated work on its product pipeline.

Clearly investors were pleased with the results and its shares have kept climbing higher.

It’s great news for the stock after Cochlear shares suffered a huge 41% one-day crash in late-April after the company downgraded its guidance figures. 

Since hitting a 10-year low of just $90 cents per share in late-April, Cochlear shares have now rebounded 52%. There is still a long way to go, however. The shares are now down around 46% for the year-to-date and are roughly 52% lower than this time last year.

The question now is, can Cochlear shares keep climbing higher?

What do analysts tip next for Cochlear shares?

It’s possible that brokers and analysts could revise their stance on Cochlear shares in coming days, following the company’s FY26 update yesterday.

But at the time of writing, it looks like the experts are still on the fence about the outlook for the hearing implant company’s shares over the next 12 months.

Many are now uncertain that Cochlear shares can stage a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months. And some believe the shares are now above fair value.

Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on Cochlear shares. The $116.08 average target price now implies a potential 18% downside from the current trading price, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows something similar, although the figures are a little less pessimistic. Again, the majority of analysts have a hold rating on the shares. The $139.21 average target price implies a potential 2% downside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.

So, if I invest $5,000 into Cochlear shares today, what could it be worth in 12 months?

These forecasts suggest that a $5,000 investment into Cochlear shares today, could fall to somewhere around $4,100 to $4,900 by this time next year. That implies a loss of up to $900.

What could drive Cochlear shares higher?

It’s been a difficult year for the medical hearing implant device company. Cochlear has suffered from a number of strong headwinds, including a sector-wide rotation away from ASX healthcare shares this year. 

Looking ahead, I still see Cochlear as a strong, globally dominant business with its long-term outlook intact. I think the steep sell-offs this year were overdone and that the share price could quietly keep climbing higher.

The post Buy $5,000 of Cochlear shares today and it could be worth this much in 12 months appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC), and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are turning heads today.

Two of the big-name ASX shares are charging higher today, while one is trailing the 0.4% losses posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) as we head into the Wednesday lunch hour.

Here’s what’s catching investor interest.

Santos shares lift on growth outlook

Santos shares are jumping higher today.

At the time of writing, shares in the ASX 200 oil and gas stock are trading for $8.37 apiece, up 3.2%.

This follows the release of Santos half year results (H1 2026).

On the positive side of the ledger, the company reported a 2% year-on-year boost in sales revenue to US$2.62 billion.

Production volumes were up as well, with sales volumes increasing by 1.7% to 48 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe).

And investors appear to be eyeing the forecast future growth and shrugging off the 19% decline in Santos’ half-year statutory net profit after tax (NPAT), which fell to US$355 million.

As for that growth that could support Santos shares longer-term, the company revealed that Barossa has reached 97% of planned rates since the end of June. And in Alaska, the company’s Pikka Phase 1 project achieved first oil. Management expects the project to hit plateau production in the third quarter of 2026.

Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher noted:

The first half marked an important step forward for Santos. We brought the Pikka project online safely and continued to progress Barossa through commissioning towards steady-state production, while the base business continued to perform strongly.

Whitehaven Coal shares slide on revenue decline

Unlike Santos shares, Whitehaven shares are slipping following the release of the ASX 200 coal stock’s full-year FY 2026 results.

At time of writing, the Whitehaven share price is down 1.8% at $7.62.

For the 12 months the company reported revenue of $5.40 billion, down 7% from FY 2025.

And underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.25 billion were down 8%.

On the bottom line, Whitehaven’s full year NPAT declined by 29% to $227 million, impacted in part by lower coal prices.

Still, management declared a fully franked final dividend of 6 cents per share, in line with last year’s payout.

Which brings us to…

Evolution Mining shares jump on record profits

Joining Whitehaven and Santos shares in making waves today, we find ASX 200 gold stock Evolution Mining.

Evolution Mining shares are up 1.1% at time of writing, changing hands for $13.80 apiece.

Investors are bidding up the gold stock following the release of Evolution’s own FY 2026 results.

Amid a rising gold price environment and its own operational successes, the miner reported a 44% year-on-year increase in underlying EBITDA to $3.17 billion. And cash flow surged 76% to a record high of $1.39 billion.

Evolution Mining also achieved an all-time high statutory profit after tax of $1.48 billion, up 59% from FY 2025.

This saw management boost the final fully franked dividend to 21 cents per share, up 62% from last year’s payout.

The post Why Evolution Mining, Whitehaven and Santos shares are creating a buzz on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Evolution Mining shares are up 76%. Could results spark another surge?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has been one of the stronger performers in the mining sector over the past year.

After a run like that, it is reasonable to wonder whether much of the opportunity has already been captured.

So, would I still put $5,000 into Rio Tinto shares this week?

The valuation still looks reasonable

Rio Tinto shares are currently trading around $168.84.

According to CommSec, consensus earnings per share estimates stand at $12.07 in FY26 and $12.04 in FY27.

That puts the miner on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of around 14 times in both years.

I think that looks reasonable for a global mining company with substantial exposure to iron ore, aluminium and, increasingly, copper.

There is passive income to consider as well. CommSec expects fully franked dividends of $6.63 per share in FY26 and $6.62 in FY27, which would represent a forecast yield of roughly 3.9% at the current share price.

That gives investors something back while waiting for the longer-term growth story to develop.

Copper is where I get more excited

The copper side of Rio Tinto is becoming increasingly important to my investment case.

Demand for the metal should benefit from spending on electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and other infrastructure needed as the global economy becomes more electrified.

Rio Tinto already has major copper operations, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia is giving it a meaningful source of production growth.

Copper production from Oyu Tolgoi increased by 31% to 198,000 tonnes during the first half of 2026 as the underground operation continued ramping up.

I think the longer-term opportunity is even more interesting. Rio Tinto expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year on average between 2028 and 2036 from its open pit and underground operations. At that scale, it is expected to become one of the world’s largest copper mines.

That gives Rio Tinto a growth project already moving towards much higher production at a time when I expect copper to become increasingly valuable.

What would make me cautious?

Rio Tinto shares have risen by around 50% over the past 12 months, so expectations are certainly higher than they were a year ago.

Mining earnings can also change quickly when commodity prices move. Iron ore remains an important contributor, while a weaker copper price could reduce some of the excitement around the company’s expanding production.

The relatively flat consensus earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are a reminder of that cyclicality.

But I think Rio Tinto is becoming a more interesting business for the years ahead. Its copper production is growing, Oyu Tolgoi still has a long ramp-up ahead, and the wider portfolio gives the company several major commodities to work with.

Foolish takeaway

I would invest $5,000 into Rio Tinto shares this week.

The strong share price performance over the past year has made the entry point less attractive than it once was, but I still think around 14 times forecast earnings represents good value.

More importantly, I like where the business could be heading over the next several years as copper becomes a larger part of the story.

For investors prepared to accept the ups and downs that come with mining shares, I think Rio Tinto remains a strong long-term buy.

The post Would I invest $5,000 into Rio Tinto shares this week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock– formerly known as Pilbara Minerals – closed yesterday trading for $4.93. In late morning trade on Wednesday, shares are swapping hands for $4.96 each, up 0.6%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.4% amid renewed concerns over the enduring conflict in the Middle East.

Today’s outperformance is par for the course for the Aussie lithium producer, with PLS shares up 117.7% since this time last year, smashing the 1.6% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.

Some of that strong performance has been fuelled by the 79% increase in global spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) prices. Though the miner has hardly been sitting idle.

So, with PLS having turned $10,000 into $21,770 in the last 12 months, is the ASX lithium stock still a good buy today?

PLS shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Dolphin Partners Financial Services’ Arthur Garipoli recently ran his slide rule over the lithium miner (courtesy of The Bull).

“This high-quality pure play lithium producer recently delivered a solid June quarter report in fiscal year 2026,” he said.

“Sales were up 28% compared to the March quarter and group revenue was up 31%,” Garipoli noted.

PLS released those results on 30 July, with shares closing up 2.7% on the day. The revenue boost Garipoli mentioned saw the company report $743 million in revenue for the three months, with sales volumes of 249,900 tonnes.

While Garipoli sounded a positive note on the miner, including renewed dividend potential, he issued a hold recommendation on PLS shares for now.

According to Garipoli:

The company has benefited from rising spodumene prices and sustains a solid balance sheet. Restarting the Ngungaju processing plant is expected to materially lift sales into full year 2027. Speculation exists that PLS may resume paying dividends following stronger than expected cash generation in full year 2026.

In 2023, PLS paid two fully-franked dividends, totalling 25 cents per share. Those passive income payouts were suspended in 2024 amid slumping lithium prices.

What’s ahead for the ASX 200 lithium stock?

Looking to what could impact PLS shares in the months ahead, the company provided FY 2027 spodumene production guidance in the range of 1.03 million to 1.10 million tonnes, with growth spurred by the ramp up at the miner’s Ngungaju plant.

Costs are also expected to rise, with PLS forecasting FY 2027 unit operating costs (FOB) between $575 to $625 per tonne.

PLS also plans to increase its investment spend, forecasting full-year capital expenditure between $620 million to $685 million.

The post Up 118%! Are PLS shares now a buy, hold or sell? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX retail stock Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) is getting hammered, plunging 17% to a new 52-week low of $4.18 on Wednesday.

The stock is down 70% in 2026 and 82% over 12 months, vastly underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

And yet, the online retailer just delivered record revenue and stronger profitability. So, what’s going on?

Temple & Webster keeps growing

This $600 million ASX retail stock is one of Australia’s leading online retailers, selling hundreds of thousands of homewares, furniture, and home improvement products.

And here’s a key part of the model: most products are shipped directly from suppliers. That gives Temple & Webster a remarkably capital-light model for the sheer volume of products flowing through its platform.

Today’s numbers show the business is still moving forward. Revenue climbed 10.6% to $664.6 million, while EBITDA rose 16.6% to $21.9 million. Strip out foreign exchange effects, and underlying EBITDA jumped an impressive 28% to $25.9 million.

Delivered margin improved 5.5% to $201 million, while the company ended FY26 with $122.7 million in cash after spending $30 million on share buybacks.

Customer metrics were encouraging, too. Market share increased to 2.9%, active customers rose 5% to about 1.3 million, and repeat customers generated 62% of all orders, up from 59%.

There are growth engines beyond the core business, too. Exclusive product lines and adjacent businesses are now generating more than $100 million in annual revenue. The New Zealand operation contributed $3 million since launching in October 2025, while home improvement revenue surged 39%.

Temple & Webster also generated $24 million in operating cash flow, while fixed costs fell as a percentage of revenue.

What did management say?

Executive Chair Mark Coulter said:

Despite a challenging environment, we have been able to deliver record annual revenue of $665 million, while materially improving the underlying profitability of the business through several margin optimisation initiatives. These initiatives, combined with the flexibility of our operating model, resulted in our Underlying EBITDA (excluding unrealised foreign exchange losses) increasing by 28% vs pcp to $26 million.

What’s next for Temple & Webster?

Here’s where things get interesting for the ASX retail stock. Temple & Webster is targeting FY27 EBITDA of $33 million to $40 million, implying roughly 50% to 80% growth from FY26.

Management wants to return to double-digit revenue growth by leaning harder into digital and AI innovation, strengthening its core online offering, and scaling home improvement and New Zealand.

New CEO Susie Sugden is also expected to outline the next phase of the strategy at the AGM and first-half results, with the company targeting further growth in Australia’s $40 billion-plus homewares and furniture market.

Foolish takeaway

The market appears to be demanding faster growth from the ASX retail stock, despite the strong FY26 result.

That disconnect between solid execution and lofty expectations could be the key to understanding this brutal sell-off.

The post Why is this ASX retail stock crashing to new lows today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares have been hammered, falling 19% over the past month, 39% year to date, and 54% over 12 months.

But after disappointing 2026 guidance, could the sell-off of the ASX tech stock have gone too far?

Counter-drone spending leads to orders

DroneShield’s technology is designed to detect, identify, and defeat drone threats, with customers across military, government, law enforcement, and critical infrastructure.

The demand story is already becoming tangible. By late July, the company had secured $206 million of committed FY26 revenue, almost matching its entire FY25 revenue with five months of the year still remaining.

It’s promising and crucial for DroneShield shares that counter-drone spending is translating into real orders, rather than simply representing an attractive future market.

The next challenge is delivering as demand grows

The company is expanding its global production footprint, including establishing manufacturing operations in Europe, and expects combined annual production capacity to reach around $2.4 billion by the end of 2026.

DroneShield is also continuing to invest in its technology. Management has described its current product rollout as the most significant product cycle in the company’s history, with further releases expected through 2027.

Its existing hardware can also gain additional capabilities through software subscriptions as the company’s radio-frequency intelligence dataset grows.

If the counter-drone market continues expanding, the combination of technology, manufacturing scale, and an established customer base could put DroneShield in a strong position to capture that demand.

There’s a big catch: valuation

DroneShield shares trade on high P/E multiples, meaning investors are already pricing in substantial future growth. That can be justified if the company becomes considerably larger over the long term. However, it also leaves little room for disappointment.

Investors got a reminder of that on 28 July. DroneShield released a calendar 2026 trading update alongside a new contract announcement. While the operational numbers were strong, management’s guidance disappointed the market.

The company expects FY26 revenue of $250 million to $270 million, representing growth of 15% to 25% on FY25. The problem? Consensus expectations had been closer to $323 million.

The result was a sharp DroneShield share price decline, with profit-taking adding to the pressure.

Short sellers are also taking aim. DroneShield is currently the most shorted ASX share, with short interest of 15.7%.

What do brokers think?

No wonder analysts are divided on DroneShield shares.

TradingView data shows two of four brokers at strong buy and two at sell or strong sell. The average price target is $2.13, implying about 12% upside, while the most bullish target of $2.80 implies roughly 47% upside. The bearish target of $1.60 suggests another 16% downside.

Canaccord Genuity is among the bulls, retaining a buy rating and $2.80 price target.

So, is there upside left? There could be, but DroneShield now needs to prove it can convert its enormous opportunity into sustained earnings growth.

The post Is the DroneShield share price now too cheap to ignore? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) are deeply in the red over a 12-month period, but after the release of the company’s results this week, brokers are tipping a rebound.

The shares fell sharply in late June after the company announced a downgrade in expected pre-tax earnings from $180-$190 million down to $163-$169 million.

Over a 12-month period the company’s shares are 39.6% lower.

But after the company’s results this week, the analyst teams at both Morgans and Macquarie are tipping some serious share price upside for the stock.

Judo looking forward after solid profit result

Let’s have a quick look at what Judo reported this week.

The company reported a pre-tax profit of $168.1 million, up 34%, with Judo saying this reflected strong revenue growth.

Judo enjoyed above system lending growth, with gross loans and advances of $14.7 billion, up 18% year on year, at the top end of guidance.

Deposit balances also grew 24% to $12.2 billion.

Judo is expecting pre-tax profit to come in at $210-$220 million for the current year.

Chief Executive Officer Chris Bayliss said regarding the result:

FY26 has been another year of genuine momentum for Judo. While the increase in specific provisions late in the year was disappointing, the underlying performance of the Bank has remained strong, with record revenue, continued operating leverage, strong deposit growth and lending at the top end of guidance. We have continued to deliver above-system growth, underpinned by our customer value proposition of smarter judgement, faster decisions, and stronger relationships. With major investments in our core technology platforms behind us, we are now focused on delivering operating leverage and driving our return on equity. As we continue to scale the loan book, we are seeing more of our revenue growth translate to profit growth. Our cost to income ratio has improved significantly to now be the lowest in the sector3, and will keep improving as we scale.

Judo Capital shares looking cheap

Macquarie said in a note to its clients that the question is, “whether Judo is able to achieve that balance between margins, growth, and credit quality to achieve returns at scale”.

The analysts said while it was difficult to be certain, “we think the valuation discount adequately compensates the risks”.

Macquarie has a price target of $1.65 on Judo shares compared to $1.06 currently.

Morgans meanwhile said they expected earnings growth to be in the strong double digits from FY28-FY28.

They said:

Short-term target price is $1.42/share, but we think by the end of this decade JDO could be worth close to $2/share. JDO is higher risk and more cyclically exposed than the major banks, but investors are compensated by higher potential returns at current prices.  

The post How high will Judo Capital shares go? Brokers have their say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.