Category: Stock Market

  • Own Xero shares? Here’s what to expect from next week’s results

    A man and woman watch their device screens, making investing decisions at home.

    Next week will be a big one for Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) shares and its shareholders.

    That’s because the cloud accounting platform provider will be releasing its FY 2024 results on Thursday 23 May.

    Ahead of the release, let’s take a look at what analysts are expecting from the market darling tech stock.

    Xero results preview

    According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting the company to deliver revenue slightly ahead of consensus estimates.

    The broker has pencilled in a 22% increase in revenue to NZ$1,709 million. The consensus estimate is for revenue of NZ$1,696 million.

    Goldman also expects Xero’s earnings to grow quicker than the market is expecting. It has pencilled in EBITDA of NZ$480 million for FY 2024. This represents a 59% increase on the prior corresponding period and is ahead of the consensus estimate of NZ$469 million.

    This will mean an operating expense ratio (as a percentage of sales) of 75.3% for the period, which is broadly in line with management’s target. Though, Goldman expects this number to reduce into the low 70s in FY 2025 and will be looking for this in its guidance statement. In fact, the broker referred to this as one of its “key focus points.”

    Another key focus point will be its second half subscriber growth. Goldman is expecting subs growth in the UK and North America of 50,000 and 23,000, respectively.

    In addition, it thinks that average revenue per user (ARPU) trends will be worth watching, “particularly any underlying expansion outside of price growth – which would suggest strong mix/upsell/transactions growth.”

    It also wants to see if management reiterates its “Rule of 40 or greater aspiration, and whether this could be achieved in FY25.”

    Should you buy Xero shares?

    Goldman thinks that Xero shares would be a great option for investors right now.

    The broker has reiterated its conviction buy rating and $156.00 price target on them. This implies potential upside of 28% for investors over the next 12 months.

    Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

    Xero is a Global Cloud Accounting SaaS player, with existing focuses in ANZ, UK, North American and SE Asian markets. We see Xero as very well-placed to take advantage of the digitisation of SMBs globally, driven by compelling efficiency benefits and regulatory tailwinds, with >100mn SMBs worldwide representing a >NZ$100bn TAM. Given the company’s pivot to profitable growth and corresponding faster earnings ramp, we see an attractive entry point into a global growth story with Xero our preferred large-cap technology name in ANZ – the stock is Buy rated (on CL).

    The post Own Xero shares? Here’s what to expect from next week’s results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Xero Limited right now?

    Before you buy Xero Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Xero Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 2 reasons to buy Berkshire Hathaway shares today (and one not to)

    Legendary share market investing expert and owner of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett

    Warren Buffett’s legendary company Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) is one of the most popular investments in the world. And fair enough.

    Many investors (including this writer) can’t resist hitching their financial wagons to a company (and an investor in Buffett) that has achieved some of the most remarkable returns of any stock on the US markets over the past 60 years or so.

    To illustrate, one Berkshire Class A share was asking US$1,345 each back in May of 1984. Today, that same share (with no stock splits) was going for US$619,250 at recent pricing. That’s a return of around 46,000% over four decades, enough to make anyone who was lucky enough to own even one share over this period immensely rich.

    Buffett himself only owns Berkshire stock, which is why he has an estimated net worth of US$136 billion today.

    But those returns reflect the past, not the future of course. So are there any reasons to buy Berkshire Hathaway shares today? Well, I can think of two reasons to buy and one reason why investors might want to hold off.

    2 reasons to buy Berkshire Hathaway shares today

    First up is Berkshire’s enormous and diversified portfolio of underlying investments. Unlike most companies, Berkshire has diversification built in. This stock basically functions as a holding company for Buffett’s underlying investment portfolio. It owns dozens of listed and unlisted assets within it, including public companies, private companies, and government bonds.

    Some of Berkshire’s most famous holdings, which have been held for decades in some cases, include Coca-Cola, American Express, Chevron, Bank of America, Kraft Heinz, Geico, BNSF Railway, See’s Candies and Dairy Queen. The company’s largest investment by a country mile is a massive stake in a company we all know – Apple.

    But simply, an investment in Berkshire is an investment in a vast and diverse collection of some of the best businesses in America, if not the world.

    The second reason to buy Berkshire Hathaway shares today is the company’s culture. Buffett might be in his 90s (more on that in a moment). But he has worked assiduously over the years to ensure that the company’s culture of seeking substantial but honest returns for long-term investors remains Berkshire’s north star. Buffett’s right-hand man, Charlie Munger, is sadly no longer with us. But Buffett has handpicked Greg Abel as his successor at the company, and has also employed two investment officers – Todd Combs and Ted Weschler – in which he has confidence. Buffett tells us that Berkshire will remain in good hands as a result for decades to come.

    Why not buy Buffett’s company?

    Well, the elephant in the room when discussing investing in Berkshire today is Buffett’s age. At 93, Buffett’s time at Berkshire and on this planet is lamentably in its inevitable twilight.

    Now Buffett may have put a succession plan into place that most investors would be confident in. But at the end of the day, there is only one Warren Buffett. Investors have no guarantee that Abel, Weschler and Combs will be able to keep Berkshire’s past track record going at Berkshire once Buffett has exited the stage.

    In addition, Berkshire is a giant of a company today, with a market capitalisation of close to US$900 billion. At this size the company’s growth rate will be difficult to maintain, a problem Buffett himself has struggled with in recent years. Investors might have to face an eventual breakup of Berkshire once Buffett is no longer at the helm, which would make the company’s future even more uncertain.

    Foolish takeaway

    I’m a shareholder of Berkshire myself, and I would happily buy more shares today if the price were right. Even though Buffett is getting on, I have confidence that he has set up Berkshire for success well into the future. But once Buffett has left the building, investors might want to endeavour to keep a closer eye on the company he will leave behind than they are used to.

    The post 2 reasons to buy Berkshire Hathaway shares today (and one not to) appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. right now?

    Before you buy Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Bank of America is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. American Express is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in American Express, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, and Kraft Heinz. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Apple, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, and Chevron. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Kraft Heinz. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Is your superannuation keeping up with the cost of living crisis?

    Man looking at his grocery receipt, symbolising inflation.

    The superannuation system is a key asset for helping people fund their retirement. But with all of this inflation, investors may wonder if their nest egg is still on track.

    For many people, the retirement phase of their lives can be many years, perhaps decades. Therefore, we need to ensure the superannuation balance lasts as long as possible.  

    Inflation reduces the buying power of a dollar. We need to ensure that this cost-of-living crisis doesn’t detrimentally affect our purchasing power in retirement by harming our superannuation-building efforts.

    Aussies are worried about the financial impacts

    According to research from Findex, four in five Australians (81% of people) have changed their investment and saving goals in the past year, with the primary reason for the shift being to ‘make ends meet and or rising costs of living’ (44% of people).

    Who is feeling it the most? The younger Australians. Around 90% of Gen Z and 87% of millennials have de-prioritised investing and saving because of cost of living pressures.

    The trouble is that inflation is likely increasing how much we’ll need in retirement to pay for goods and services in our golden years.

    Findex says more than four in five (83% of people) say the rising cost of living has had a “significant or some adverse impact on their confidence in achieving the amount they think they need for a comfortable retirement.”

    On average, Australians believe they will need $1.13 million in superannuation for a comfortable retirement at age 67.

    Currently, the AFSA Retirement Standard suggests a couple will need a superannuation balance of $690,000 and a single person will need $595,000 for a comfortable retirement. That amount is, in my opinion, likely to keep rising in the coming years.

    What can people do to help their superannuation?

    It’s a tough time for many households, so keeping food on the table and a roof over our heads is the most important thing.

    Everyone who earns a wage is (hopefully) receiving mandatory (concessional) superannuation contributions, which is a percentage of the amount of wages earned. These contributions can keep building the balance, even if no extra money is invested inside or outside superannuation.

    Over the ultra-long-term, ‘growth’ assets can typically outperform defensive assets like cash and bonds because of their capital growth and compounding potential. So it could be useful for Aussies in the accumulation phase to allocate their nest egg to the superannuation fund’s ‘growth’ option rather than the defensive option (or even balanced, depending on how much that option allocates to defensive assets).

    If Aussies have plenty of excess cash flow in their personal budgets, increasing superannuation contributions could be advantageous because of the tax savings and compounding ability. Of course, this should be balanced against thoughts of home ownership and possibly paying down the mortgage.

    Aussies don’t need to invest inside superannuation. The money is locked away for retirement for potentially decades, whereas investing in (ASX) shares outside of superannuation can mean being able to access the capital/dividends instantly.

    I’m investing outside of super and also building up my superannuation balance through regular concessional contributions.

    The post Is your superannuation keeping up with the cost of living crisis? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the ‘five best ASX stocks’ for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Guess which ASX lithium stock dived 9% after parting ways with Albemarle

    A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.

    It was a difficult session for Patriot Battery Metals Inc. CDI (ASX: PMT) shares on Wednesday.

    The lithium developer’s shares sank as much as 9.5% to 76.5 cents before recovering in late trade.

    The ASX lithium stock ended the day 5.5% lower at 80 cents.

    Why did this ASX lithium stock crash into the red?

    Investors were heading to the exits today after the company released an update on its agreement with lithium giant Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB).

    According to the release, the two parties’ memorandum of understanding’s (MOU) nine-month term has concluded and will not be extended.

    The MOU was assessing partnership opportunities to study the viability of a downstream lithium hydroxide plant integrated with the Corvette Lithium Project and located in Canada or the United States.

    At the time, the ASX lithium stock cautioned that there was no assurance that the MOU will result in the completion of a study or the formation of a partnership or joint venture with Albemarle. Which is exactly what has happened, much to the dismay of shareholders.

    What now?

    Patriot advised that it now expects to fully engage with other downstream companies in the lithium supply chain. The good news is that management appears confident that it will be able to replace Albemarle.

    It notes that as the scale and quality of the Corvette Project has become increasingly evident, it has received significant interest from participants in the lithium industry. Especially given the potential for Corvette to be a large and high-quality raw material supplier for the future of lithium-ion battery supply chains outside China. It believes that being able to fully engage with other downstream companies is in the best interests of shareholders.

    The ASX lithium stock’s President and CEO, Ken Brinsden, commented:

    Our collaboration with Albemarle has been extremely valuable. We are proud of the progress we’ve made and are excited by the intense market interest in the Corvette project. As we move forward, Patriot is eager to expand its operations and explore new partnerships that support the growing demand for lithium raw materials and chemicals in North America and Europe. We also look forward to continuing our productive relationship with Albemarle in a flexible, non-exclusive format.

    As things stand, Albemarle remains the company’s largest shareholder with a 6.4% stake.

    Though, with the mining giant paying C$15.29 per share for its stake, it is down heavily on its investment. The company’s shares are currently fetching C$8.03 on the Canadian stock exchange.

    The post Guess which ASX lithium stock dived 9% after parting ways with Albemarle appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Patriot Battery Metals right now?

    Before you buy Patriot Battery Metals shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Patriot Battery Metals wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

    Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) enjoyed a successful hump day this Wednesday, rebounding after some heavy falls earlier in the week. By the end of trading, the ASX 200 had added a healthy 0.35%, pushing the index back up to 7,753.7 points.

    This happy Wednesday for ASX shares comes after an equally rosy night up on Wall Street last night.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had a great Tuesday, gaining 0.32%.

    It was even better for the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ: .IXIC), which rose 0.75%.

    But let’s get back to the local share market with a checkup on how the various ASX sectors performed today.

    Winners and losers

    Despite today’s market rises, we still had a handful of sectors that went backwards.

    The first and worst were industrial shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index (ASX: XNJ) had a day to forget, tanking by 0.63%.

    Energy shares also copped some apathy, with the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) shrinking 0.54%.

    Financial stocks were on the nose too, illustrated by the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ)’s 0.25% retreat.

    But that’s it for the losers. Turning to the winners now, and it was mining shares that won the race. The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) surged by a happy 1.35% today.

    Healthcare stocks were another bright spot. The S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index (ASX: XHJ) soared 0.8% higher by the closing bell.

    Consumer discretionary shares had a great day too. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) ended up banking a 0.76% gain.

    ASX communications stocks were a happy lot as well, with the S&P/ASX 200 Communication Services Index (ASX: XTJ) enjoying a 0.67% lift.

    Real estate investment trusts (REITs) were in demand today. The S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index (ASX: XPJ) was sent 0.55% higher.

    Next up were consumer staples shares. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) swelled by 0.54%.

    Tech stocks weren’t left out either, with the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) getting a 0.36% bounce.

    Utilities shares were also at the party. The S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index (ASX: XUJ) got a 0.3% upgrade from the markets.

    Our final winners were gold stocks. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) ended up inching 0.09% higher by the end of trading.

    Top 10 ASX 200 shares countdown

    Coming out on top this hump day was educational stock IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL). IDP shares shot up a healthy 7.05% to finish at a flat $17 each.

    There wasn’t any meaningful news out of the company today, but this lift could have been a result of last night’s Federal Budget, or maybe a major upcoming index rebalance.

    Here are the rest of today’s winning ASX shares:

    ASX-listed company Share price Price change
    IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) $17.00 7.05%
    Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) $21.34 5.64%
    Ansell Ltd (ASX: ANN) $25.80 3.86%
    Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME) $116.46 2.91%
    Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM) $7.27 2.83%
    REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) $188.68 2.69%
    Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) $30.02 2.42%
    Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) $6.32 2.27%
    Emerald Resources N.L. (ASX: EMR) $3.67 2.23%
    Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) $2.31 2.21%

    Our top 10 shares countdown is a recurring end-of-day summary to let you know which companies were making big moves on the day. Check in at Fool.com.au after the weekday market closes to see which stocks make the countdown.

    The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Ansell Limited right now?

    Before you buy Ansell Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Ansell Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Idp Education, Pro Medicus, and REA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell, Idp Education, Premier Investments, Pro Medicus, and REA Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Which ASX shares could be set to benefit from the federal budget?

    A smiling businessman in the city looks at his phone and punches the air in celebration of good news.

    Well, last night was one of the biggest nights of the year on both the political and economic calendars – Federal Budget night. It’s the night when the Treasurer tells us what the government intends to collect in terms of taxes. And where it intends to spend this money in government expenditure.

    In other words, it’s a list of both economic winners and losers thanks to government intervention in the economy for the next financial year.

    Last night was the Labor Party’s second budget since coming to power in the 2022 Federal election. It was also the second surplus the government has posted in as many years. This one represents a $9.3 billion difference between what the government takes out of the economy and what it puts back in expected over the coming financial year.

    Since the budget is such a huge part of the economy, it can have significant impacts on the share market. Not to mention on individual ASX shares. So today, let’s discuss which ASX shares are set to benefit the most from what was announced last night.

    First up, the budget implements the revamped ‘stage three’ tax cuts that have been on the cards for a while now. This will result in every Australian income taxpayer receiving a tax cut beginning on 1 July. In addition, every household in the country will also be eligible for a $300 energy bill rebate.

    Which ASX shares are winners from last night’s federal budget?

    For one, this will probably benefit energy generators and retailers like AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG). That’s because consumers arguably won’t feel the full brunt of their energy use over the 12 months from 1 July.

    But more money in pockets from both the tax cuts and the energy rebates will probably disproportionately flow through to consumer discretionary shares. Those might include Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN), JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) and Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL).

    But perhaps the centrepiece of last night’s Budget was the ‘Future Made in Australia’ policy. According to AMP economist Shane Oliver, this $22.7 billion program consists of a package of measures. These include tax breaks, loans, subsidies and cuts to red tape to facilitate additional investment in Australian critical mineral production and processing.

    These critical minerals are all commodities needed for future-facing technologies like green hydrogen, renewable energy generation and rechargeable battery manufacturing. They include lithium, cobalt, rare earths, nickel and vanadium.

    Most ASX shares that are involved in the mining, production or processing of one or more of these ‘critical’ commodities stand to be potentially massive winners from last night’s budget.

    That’s probably why we saw big share price gains for the likes of Arcadium Lithium plc (ASX: LTM), Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) today.

    Foolish takeaway

    So these are just some of the shares that might benefit the most from last night’s budget. We saw a notable market reaction for many of these shares today in response, but only time will tell exactly how much these shares will tangibly benefit from what was announced by the government last night.

    The post Which ASX shares could be set to benefit from the federal budget? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Agl Energy Limited right now?

    Before you buy Agl Energy Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Agl Energy Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman and Super Retail Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jb Hi-Fi and Premier Investments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • My 2024 Budget verdict

    The Australian Coat of Arms flanked by a kangaroo and an emu features as a fresco on a building with the backdrop of a blue sky.

    Well, only 364 days until the 2025 Federal Budget! Start the countdown.

    And, as a finance, economics and policy nerd, I’m only very slightly kidding!

    But before we get to that, let’s take a look at what the Treasurer announced overnight in the 2024 Federal Budget.

    The headlines?

    Well, there’s a $9.3b Budget surplus. Given the size of our national debt and inflation pressures, that’s a good thing.

    And, as we all well and truly know by now, every (income) taxpayer will get a tax cut from July 1. They’ll cost $105 billion over the next five years.

    The new ‘what’s in it for me’ for everyone is a $300 saving on our energy bills (and $325 for one million small businesses), which will cost the Budget about $3.5 billion.

    That’s the biggest of the big stuff announced yesterday, but it’s not the whole thing.

    The government’s other ‘signature policy’, the focus-group-named ‘Future Made in Australia’ program will cost $23b over a decade.

    Additionally, there’s $3b for additional medicines to be included in the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, the previously announced $3b reduction in HECS/HELP debts and $1.9b in rent assistance. There’s also the best part of $1b for victims of domestic violence, and another $1b for more housing.

    That’s a lot of ‘stuff’ to take in. And the numbers are mind-boggling.

    Oh, and the bad news? This year’s surplus is expected to be the last one for yonks. Indeed, the cumulative surplus of the next 4 years is forecast at $112 billion, wiping out this year’s surplus a dozen times over.

    Unfortunately, the Treasurer seems to have not received, or misplaced, my letter from yesterday. There is no Sovereign Wealth Fund. No structural Budget balance, and no plan to pay down the national debt.

    And while the Budget was relatively restrained, there is spending in this Budget that will, unfortunately, put upward pressure on inflation. (Yes, the Treasurer said otherwise, but I don’t know how you put extra money into the economy from tax cuts and energy rebates and have it magically not put upward pressure on inflation, even if you think they’re justified).

    I was asked on radio this morning: “You’ve been watching Budgets for years… what’s your verdict on this one?”

    My answer: It’s better than it could have been, but not as good as it should have been.

    How so? Let me explain.

    I’m a broken record on Stage 3 tax cuts, but one more time: they’re unaffordable and irresponsible, because they add to the national debt and – notably at this time in particular – are inflationary.

    The $300/$325 energy rebate/subsidy is not means-tested. There are plenty of people in our country who need every spare dollar the government can give them. And plenty of people who don’t. Giving everyone some money is politically convenient, but not economically responsible.

    The Budget is still expansionary, despite the surplus. Which at first blush doesn’t seem possible. The reason is that the surplus comes primarily from sales of commodities to overseas customers. The ‘domestic balance’ is still stimulatory, overall.

    And as I’ve written before, the ‘Future Made in Australia’ thing is very, very likely to be a waste of money. If there are new, profitable, things that business could be doing, it already would. And if it’s not profitable, there’s only a very slight chance that government subsidies can make it so… without those subsidies going on forever. And they’re subsidies that could otherwise be spent elsewhere or, more preferably, banked to help lower the national debt.

    (Also, any assets – human and financial – that are dragged toward these subsidised activities would likely be coming from higher value activities elsewhere, so we lose, twice.)

    Those are the very real downsides for the economy and the country from this Budget.

    But it’s also true that the Treasurer (and his ministerial colleagues) could have spent more of the extra revenue on other things. That they didn’t, should count for something (yes, it’s a function of low expectations and bitter experience that ‘it could have been worse’ is a positive, but here we are!).

    Much of the new spending is objectively worthwhile, too, on social and welfare grounds. Not everything needs an economic return to be justified.

    It is, overall, a bit of a nothing Budget, though. Some handouts, as we’re used to expecting, but not that much in the way of newly announced spending. A surplus, which is welcome, but not particularly large, and not as a result of government policy… more just luck, internationally and domestically.

    Not much ambition. No signature policies. No great nation-building. And no Sovereign Wealth Fund, unfortunately. But also, on the other side, no (new) grandiose spending plans of any significant scale.

    So, a bit… nothing.

    For all of that, every taxpayer and every household gets some extra cash from July 1. If that feels to you like a pre-election Budget, you’re not alone. I could be wrong, but this seems designed to make us all feel like we’re a little better off (even if it’s funded by national debt!), without scaring the horses.

    And the investing takeaways? It’s really rare that any Federal Budget changes the outlook for the long-term investor. And that’s the way I feel about this one, too. In the short term, retailers might get a little bump when the tax cuts are spent and when people find they’ve got a few bucks left over from lower energy prices. Builders and building materials companies may benefit if the government’s plans for more housing come to fruition. Green energy and green metals may benefit – eventually – from some of the ‘Future Made in Australia’ piggybank, but that’s years away, and it’s unclear if the Opposition will support it, or retain it if they win the next election.

    The bigger question for investors from any Budget should be ‘How does this impact the Australian economy over the next 5, 10 and 20 years?’.

    The answer? It doesn’t change the outlook much, at all. Which isn’t as good as it sounds, given we have a large and growing national debt (and national interest bill). At some point we may need to reckon with the can that’s been kicked down the road by successive governments, but it shouldn’t (needn’t) derail our investing plans.

    So, that’s a wrap. I’ll send the Treasurer my letter again next year. Hopefully with some time to think about it, he, and the Shadow Treasurer, might have an opportunity to plan for an even brighter future.

    Fool on!

    The post My 2024 Budget verdict appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the ‘five best ASX stocks’ for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now…

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    Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Buy this ASX 200 share for a 20%+ return

    A young woman holds her hand to her mouth in surprise as she reads something on her laptop.

    If you’re looking to bolster your investment portfolio’s returns, then it could be worth looking at the ASX 200 share in this article.

    That’s because analysts at Bell Potter believe that a total return in excess of 20% is possible over the next 12 months.

    Which ASX 200 share is the broker bullish on?

    The stock in question is Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE). It is an automotive retailer with a significant network of dealerships sprawling across Australia.

    According to a note from this morning, the broker has reiterated its buy rating on the ASX 200 share with a slightly trimmed price target of $14.75 (from $15.20).

    Based on its current share price of $12.55, this implies potential upside of 17.5% for investors between now and this time next year.

    But the returns won’t stop there according to Bell Potter. It expects Eagers Automotive to pay 74 cents per share fully franked dividends in FY 2024, FY 2025, and FY 2026.

    This represents 5.9% dividend yields at current prices and boosts the total 12-month return to approximately 23.5%.

    To put that into context, a $20,000 investment would turn into almost $25,000 if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.

    What is the broker saying?

    Bell Potter notes that the ASX 200 share is due to hold its annual general meeting next week. In previous years, the company has provided a trading update at the event and the broker expects this to be the case this year.

    The note reveals that its analysts are expecting a relatively flat start to FY 2024 compared to the same period last year. It said:

    Eagers will hold its AGM next week on Wednesday, 22nd May and as per usual we expect the company to provide a trading update for the year-to-date (ytd). We expect underlying net profit before tax for the first four months of 2024 to be roughly in line with the pcp as we see the positive of much stronger Toyota sales in Australia for the ytd (up 45% versus pcp) to be largely offset by the negatives of a lower contribution from BYD (due to the clearance of Atto 3’s) and any impact from the cyber security incident in late 2023.

    Nevertheless, the broker believes its shares are undervalued based on its current 11x earnings multiple and deserves to trade at 12.5x earnings. It said:

    We have reduced the multiples we apply in the PE ratio and EV/EBITDA valuations from 13x and 6x to 12.5x and 5.75x and also increased the WACC we apply in the DCF from 9.0% to 9.2% given the uncertainty around the trading update and the potential for the ytd performance to be flat to slightly down. The result is a 3% decrease in our PT to $14.75 which still >15% premium to the share price so we maintain our BUY recommendation.

    The post Buy this ASX 200 share for a 20%+ return appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Eagers Automotive Ltd right now?

    Before you buy Eagers Automotive Ltd shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Eagers Automotive Ltd wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Eagers Automotive Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

    Investor sitting in front of multiple screens watching share prices

    Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models and recommendations again. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes this week.

    Three ASX shares that brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why their analysts are feeling bullish on them right now:

    Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL)

    According to a note out of Macquarie, its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $48.50 price target on this gaming technology company’s shares. The broker is feeling confident ahead of the company’s half year results release this week. It is expecting a result in line with consensus expectations. This will mean earnings growth of approximately 6% year on year. After which, the broker believes Aristocrat is well positioned to accelerate its growth thanks to the diversity of its portfolio. This is expected to offset any competitive pressure in the key North American market. The Aristocrat share price is trading at $40.60 at the time of writing.

    CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

    Analysts at UBS have retained their buy rating and $330.00 price target on this biotherapeutics giant’s shares. This follows the release of a quarterly update from the company’s collections partner, Terumo. It notes that Terumo’s update revealed that it has ramped up the rollout of CSL’s new Rika collection platform to more centres in the United States. In fact, the ramp up appears to be ahead of schedule, with the FY 2024 target already reached. This can only be good news given the benefits of the new technology on plasma yields. The CSL share price is fetching $284.02 on Wednesday afternoon.

    Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE)

    A note out of Bell Potter reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating on this auto retailer’s shares with a trimmed price target of $14.75. Unlike Aristocrat Leisure, a reasonably mixed update is expected from Eagers Automotive next week. Bell Potter is expecting the company’s underlying net profit before tax for the first four months of 2024 to be broadly in line with the prior corresponding period. This is due to strong Toyota sales in Australia being largely offset by the negatives of a lower contribution from BYD and any impact from its cyber security incident. Nevertheless, due to its low earnings multiples and big dividend yield, the broker feels its shares are great value at current levels and retains its buy recommendation. The Eagers Automotive share price is trading at $12.54 on Wednesday.

    The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Aristocrat Leisure Limited right now?

    Before you buy Aristocrat Leisure Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Aristocrat Leisure Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Eagers Automotive Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why Fletcher Building, Healius, Iperionx, and Iress shares are sinking today

    A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a strong session on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.5% to 7,763.8 points.

    Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

    Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU)

    The Fletcher Building share price is down a further 3% to a new multi-year low of $2.66. Investors have been selling this building materials company’s shares this week following the release of a disappointing trading update. Management advised that market conditions across the company’s Materials and Distribution divisions have weakened throughout FY 2024. As a result, it expects to fall short of its EBIT (before significant items) guidance of NZ$540 million to NZ$640 million. It now expects a result in the range of NZ$500 million to NZ$530 million. Fletcher Building also warned that it expects market conditions to remain challenging in both New Zealand and Australia in the near term.

    Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS)

    The Healius share price is down almost 7% to $1.25. This appears to have been driven by the release of a broker note out of Morgan Stanley. According to the note, the broker has reiterated its underweight (sell) rating on the pathology services company’s shares with a $1.00 price target. Morgan Stanley has concerns that the company debt refinancing announcement is a sign that operating conditions have deteriorated further during the second half.

    Iperionx Ltd (ASX: IPX)

    The Iperionx share price is down almost 5% to $2.02. This has been driven by news that the titanium metal and critical materials company has completed an institutional placement. The company has received firm commitments for a placement of 26.2 million new shares at a discount of $1.91 per new share. This will raise gross proceeds of $50 million before costs. The proceeds from the placement will be used to scale titanium manufacturing capacity at IperionX’s operations in Virginia. This includes new equipment at the Advanced Manufacturing Center, final design, and engineering studies to increase titanium production capacity to ~2,000 metric tons per annum.

    Iress Ltd (ASX: IRE)

    The Iress share price is down 4% to $8.11. Investors have been selling this financial technology company’s shares after it released an update on unauthorised access to its user space on GitHub. Management advised that in the course of the investigation, it has now been discovered that a credential within Iress’ GitHub user space was stolen and used to gain access to Iress’ OneVue production environment. The OneVue production environment contains client data and Iress is investigating the extent and nature of the data accessed. At this time, it has found no evidence that the remainder of Iress’ production environment, software or client data has otherwise been compromised.

    The post Why Fletcher Building, Healius, Iperionx, and Iress shares are sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Fletcher Building Limited right now?

    Before you buy Fletcher Building Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Fletcher Building Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of 5 May 2024

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.