Mortgage holders and ASX share investors alike could be facing not one, but two more RBA interest rate hikes this calendar year.

That’s according to Citi analyst Faraz Syed, who believes that ongoing inflationary headwinds Down Under will force the central bank’s hand.

What’s been happening with interest rates?

When Australians kicked off the New Year, the official cash rate stood at 3.60%. A level many hoped would be the medium-term peak.

Those hopes were dashed, however, as inflation began to pick back up even before the onset of the Iran war. And with that conflict adding fuel to the inflationary fire, predominantly by sending global oil prices skyrocketing, the RBA has already increased interest rates three time in 2026 to the current 4.35% level.

While some ASX shares have outperformed in this environment, pressure is beginning to show across the wider market.

Down 1.1% today at 8,727 points, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is trading right where it was on 2 January and down 0.9% over 12 months.

And ASX 200 tech stocks, which tend to be much more sensitive to interest rate moves, have fared far worse.

Indeed, the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) is down 22.8% in 2026 and has plunged 43.6% since this time last year.

Why borrowing costs are expected to keep rising in 2026

At its last meeting on 11 August, the RBA opted to keep rates on hold.

But the board cautioned:

While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too high. Trimmed mean inflation also remains elevated and is little changed from the March quarter.

Fast forward to today, and the Brent crude oil price just topped US$109 per barrel as the Middle East conflict looks to be heating back up rather than cooling down.

Commenting on why he expects the RBA to increase interest rates two more times in 2026, lifting the cash rate to 4.85% by year end, Cit’s Syed said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

This view is driven by a two-speed economy, where a deepening housing correction is offset by an AI-related investment boom that is adding to capacity constraints.

Anaemic productivity, a tight labour market, and elevated oil prices likely mean inflation will remain stubbornly high, with our Q3 trimmed-mean CPI forecast at 1 per cent.

In our view, the RBA needs to hike further to get on the front foot of inflation, though a dovish Board could delay action. Consequently, we push our first rate cut forecast out to Q4 2027.

CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun also believes mortgage holders and ASX share investors should prepare for higher interest rates. Though he expects the RBA will hike rates just once more, followed by an extended pause.

“Over the past month and following the release of the very high July CPI, many economists have changed their view back to the view that the RBA has not finished tightening,” he said.

Colhoun added:

With input and labour costs continuing to rise at rates well above those consistent with the return of inflation to target, this suggests the Board will need to make the unpopular decision to tighten interest rates again in September as the upside inflation risks it has been discussing materialise.

The good news is that interest rates will likely remain on hold for a considerable time afterwards.

The RBA will report its next interest rate decision on 29 September.

The post Brace for impact! Why Citi forecasts 2 more RBA interest rate hikes in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Buying an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share becomes a little more serious when selling is taken off the table.

If I knew I had to hold an investment for the next decade, I would want businesses that could keep finding new ways to grow long after the initial purchase.

These three ASX 200 shares would make my shortlist.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Xero would be one of my first choices.

Its accounting software has become an important part of how millions of small businesses manage invoicing, payroll, payments, reporting, and other financial tasks.

I like the position that creates. Once a business has moved its financial records onto Xero, connected its accountant, and added other applications, changing platforms can become increasingly inconvenient.

That can help Xero retain customers while gradually offering them more services.

The company also still has a surprisingly large market left to target. Xero had around 4.9 million customers in FY26, while management has previously pointed to a global addressable market of around 100 million small businesses.

Payments, payroll, artificial intelligence, and its acquisition of Melio could also allow Xero to play a larger role in the financial lives of those customers.

Over 10 years, I think there is plenty of room for both the customer base and the amount each customer spends with Xero to increase.

HUB24 Ltd (ASX: HUB)

HUB24 would give me exposure to another long-term change happening in Australia.

The ASX 200 share provides investment and administration technology used by financial advisers to manage client portfolios.

What I like here is the opportunity for more wealth to move onto modern platforms as advisers look for better technology, greater flexibility, and more efficient ways to manage client money.

HUB24 can benefit as its existing advisers bring more client assets onto the platform, while new advisers provide another source of growth.

The wider group also owns businesses including Class and myprosperity, giving it technology that reaches accountants and wealth-management clients beyond the core investment platform.

Australia’s pool of superannuation and investment savings should continue growing for many years. I think HUB24 has a good chance of capturing an increasing share of the activity surrounding that wealth.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

Macquarie would be my third ASX 200 share pick.

The company has built businesses across asset management, infrastructure, commodities, energy, financial markets, advisory, and banking.

That gives Macquarie plenty of places to look for opportunities as the world changes.

Over the coming decade, enormous amounts of capital will likely be required for energy infrastructure, transport, digital networks, and other major projects. Macquarie has spent decades building the expertise and relationships needed to participate in those areas.

Its earnings can be up and down, and some years will inevitably be much stronger than others.

But if I were forced to ignore the share price for 10 years, that would bother me less. I would be backing Macquarie’s ability to keep finding attractive opportunities and allocating capital effectively over a full market cycle.

Foolish takeaway

A 10-year restriction would change the way I thought about buying ASX 200 shares.

Short-term catalysts would become far less important. I would spend much more time asking whether the business could still have a larger customer base, stronger competitive position, and higher earnings a decade from now.

For Xero, HUB24, and Macquarie, I think the answer could be yes.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares I’d buy if I couldn’t sell for 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24, Macquarie Group, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24 and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

By your early 50s, your superannuation balance should turn from a savings pot for the future into a financial deadline.

Your balance has already had a few decades to grow, but the next 10 to 15 years are even more important. During this period you can still make meaningful changes to your superannuation balance, investment strategy and retirement plans.

At age 53, it’s important to know how much you have in your super, and if you’re on track to fund the retirement lifestyle you want when the time comes.

Let’s break it down.

How much does it cost to retire?

According to data from the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), there are two main retirement lifestyle brackets: modest and comfortable.

A modest retirement is one that allows you to meet essential living costs slightly above the Age Pension payment. It assumes you’ll have enough money to fund basic costs like bottom-tier health insurance, utilities and grocery expenses. It leaves a little room for infrequent, low-cost leisure activities and perhaps the occasional budget meal out. But it doesn’t account for funds for travel, and it leaves only a very limited discretionary budget. 

ASFA estimates that a modest retirement will cost approximately $36,434 per year for singles and around $52,473 for a couple combined. These figures assume you own your home outright (so additional mortgage or rental costs will be on top) and that you’ll receive a part Age Pension. 

To fund a modest retirement, singles will need around $110,000 in superannuation, and couples around $120,000.

It’s achievable for most, but what many strive for is a comfortable retirement lifestyle.

ASFA defines a comfortable retirement as one which allows Australians to maintain a good standard of living well above and beyond the Age Pension. It covers expenses like top-tier private health insurance, a reasonable car, and regular leisure activities. It also includes money for home repairs and renovations, an occasional meal out, and maybe even an occasional holiday.

The data shows that a comfortable retirement is estimated to cost around $55,923 per year for singles and $78,566 for couples. Again, it assumes you’ll receive a part Age Pension and that you own your home in full. In order to fund this, single Australians will need around $630,000 in their superannuation at retirement, and couples will need around $730,000.

Ok, so at age 53, how much superannuation should I have to be considered ‘on track’?

I’ve crunched the numbers using ASFA’s online super detective tool and, at age 53, Australians should aim to have a superannuation balance of around $364,000 to be on track for a comfortable retirement. 

How does this compare to your own balance?

Can I boost my balance before it’s too late?

At age 53, you’ve still got at least seven more years before you can access your superannuation (assuming you’ve stopped working), or another 12 years if you want to access it and still earn some money on the side.

That’s plenty of time for your balance to catch up if it’s falling behind.

First, check that your fund is performing well and that your risk profile suits your needs. There is no point in adding extra funds to a superfund that is underperforming major indices like the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Once you’ve verified that, you’ll need to start adding additional funds yourself. Don’t rely solely on the compulsory minimum employer superannuation contribution to do the heavy lifting for you.

Take advantage of additional concessional or non-concessional contributions. You can do this through salary sacrifice or by making after-tax payments (as long as they’re within your annual limits).

If you don’t have enough surplus cash to add to your superannuation yourself, can your partner do it for you? Couples can boost their combined super savings if the higher-income earner contributes after-tax funds to the lower-income earner’s account. 

Also make sure you’ve checked for lost super and consolidated your super funds. Every cent counts.

The post How much should I have in my superannuation by age 53? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.