Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have fallen more than 21% over the past year, and at least one broker thinks that is an opportunity.

Morgan Stanley has a buy rating with a 12-month price target of $12.80.

Qantas shares closed Tuesday at $9.28, which implies capital growth of around 38%.

Why Morgan Stanley likes Qantas shares

Qantas trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 with a 3.87% fully franked dividend yield.

That is one of the cheaper multiples in the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO).

Qantas’ operating momentum is also better than the share price suggests.

Management expects total unit revenue across domestic and international to rise between 8% and 10% in the first half of FY27.

Qantas Loyalty earnings are forecast to grow 5% to 7%, and the division already lifted underlying EBIT 12% in FY26.

The first Project Sunrise A350-1000ULR arrives in April, with the first non-stop Sydney to London service launching in October.

What Qantas shares earned in FY26

The full-year result was a step backwards: Underlying profit before tax fell $330 million to $2.06 billion.

Statutory profit after tax declined $316 million to $1.29 billion.

Underlying earnings per share dropped 14 cents to 96 cents.

Almost all of that decline has a single cause.

The conflict in the Middle East produced a net impact of $420 million on the FY26 result, driven by record fuel prices and route disruption.

Strip that out and the underlying business actually grew.

What’s more, shareholders were still paid. The final fully franked dividend was 19.8 cents per share, taking total FY26 dividends to $600 million.

Net capital expenditure rose 3% to $4.0 billion and 17 new aircraft were delivered.

Net debt increased to $6.2 billion, which remains inside the target range, and a planned $150 million buyback was cancelled.

Chief executive Vanessa Hudson was optimistic about the year:

This has been another year of progress, with customer satisfaction at its highest in a decade and world-leading operational performance, even as the aviation industry faced record high fuel costs and disruption from the conflict in the Middle East. We came through it with a strong result, which is what allows us to continue investing in the largest fleet renewal in our history and deliver more for our customers, people and shareholders.

What Qantas shares could pay from here

Reassuringly, the dividend outlook is steadier than the earnings outlook.

Commsec projections have the airline holding its annual dividend at 39.6 cents in FY27.

That would be a 4.25% yield, or roughly 6% grossed up with franking credits.

The same projections point to 43.1 cents in FY28 and 49.6 cents in FY29.

For an airline, that is an unusually respectable income profile.

The risk facing Qantas

Oil is a key input whose volatility continues to impact Qantas.

Brent crude settled at US$97.31 a barrel on Monday after another escalation between the United States and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz.

Every dollar on the oil price flows almost directly into the airline’s largest controllable cost.

Weakening households are the second risk.

Consumer sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4, and discretionary travel is the sort of spending that gets deferred.

Qantas says international demand remains strong, helped by customers redirecting away from the Middle East, but that is a fragile advantage.

Foolish takeaway

Morgan Stanley’s target implies the market is treating thr fuel shock as permanent.

That may prove too pessimistic, because the fleet renewal, the Loyalty division and the unit revenue guidance all point in a more positive direction.

At 11 times earnings with a 6% grossed-up yield in prospect, Qantas shares are at least being priced for the risk, leaving potentially plenty of upside on the table.

The post Morgan Stanley tips Qantas shares to climb 38% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The value of investment assets you can own while still qualifying for the age pension will increase on 20 September.

The changes reflect indexation adjustments, which are made twice per year, to keep up with inflation.

Let’s take a look at what’s changing.

How much in assets can you own and still get the pension?

If you were born on or after 1 January 1957, you are eligible for the pension from age 67, whether you are retired or not.

The pension is subject to an assets test and an income test.

On 20 September, the guardrails on both tests change.

In this article, we’re focusing on the rules for the assets test.

The first thing to know is your home is excluded from the pension assets test.

If you rent your home, you’re also allowed to own a higher value of assets while still qualifying for the age pension.

Assessable assets under the test include superannuation, ASX shares, bonds, investment properties, and cash.

Under this next round of indexation changes, effective 20 September, only the upper thresholds for the assets test are changing.

Here are the details.

If you own your home

Single homeowners whose assets are worth less than $333,000 qualify for a full pension.

Single homeowners whose assets are worth between $333,001 and $745,750 (up from $733,500) will be eligible for a part-payment.

Couple homeowners whose assets are worth less than $499,000 qualify for a full pension.

Couple homeowners who have between $499,001 and $1,121,000 (up from $1,102,500) in assets will qualify for a part-payment.

If you rent your home

Single renters whose assets are worth less than $600,000 qualify for the full payment.

Single renters who have between $600,001 and $1,012,750 (up from $1,000,500) in assets will qualify for a part-payment.

Couple renters whose assets are worth less than $766,000 qualify for the full payment.

Couple renters who have between $766,001 and $1,388,000 (up from $1,369,500) in assets will qualify for a part-pension.

How much is the age pension?

Pension payments will increase on 20 September to reflect inflation.

Single pensioners will get an extra $36.80 per fortnight from 20 September.

That will raise the full pension payment up to $1,237.70 per fortnight.

Couples will get an extra $27.80 per partner, per fortnight.

That will bump up the full pension to $933 per partner, per fortnight.

Even if your assets are worth very close to the upper limit for a part-pension, it is still worth applying for social security.

You may only get a few dollars in pension, but you’ll receive the full benefit of the Australian Pensioner Concession Card (PCC).

The PCC can save you thousands of dollars every year on a broad range of living expenses in retirement.

The post How much in assets can you own while still qualifying for the age pension? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Buy, hold sell: Telstra, Origin Energy & Westpac shares
• Morgan Stanley tips Qantas shares to climb 38%
• Why the ASX 200 just hit a six-week low
• All 4 big banks now expect a rate hike. What does this mean for ASX bank shares?

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) has fallen to a six-week low. The question is: why?

Australians have decided that interest rates are going up again.

The index lost a flat 1% on Tuesday to finish at 8,920.8 points.

That leaves the market back below 9,000 points and more than 3% below where it traded in mid-August.

What fell on the ASX 200

The damage was not spread evenly across the market.

Consumer discretionary shares were the worst sector by a wide margin, falling 1.88%.

Technology shares dropped 1.76% and financials lost 1.63%.

Listed property fell 1.46%.

Utilities were the only sector to post a meaningful gain, rising 0.59%.

Looking more deeply into this, that pattern seems like a textbook interest rate reaction.

Investors sold anything that depends on household spending and bought the things that behave like bonds.

Consumer sentiment did the damage

The trigger arrived before the market opened.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.2% in September to 84.4.

Any reading below 100 means pessimists outnumber optimists, so 84.4 is a weak result.

The report itself was blunt about the cause.

The fall takes sentiment back towards the deeply pessimistic levels seen earlier in the year. Both fuel prices and interest rates again look to be driving the move.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now expect mortgage rates to rise within twelve months.

Assessments of family finances dropped 9.2%, and among homeowners the fall was 13%.

Westpac then moved its own forecast to a November rate rise, joining ANZ and CommBank.

That followed June quarter national accounts showing the economy growing 0.4% for the quarter and 2.1% over the year.

JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman are wearing it

Two retailers show what all of this looks like at the company level.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) shares fell 2.25% on Tuesday to $66.07.

That is a fresh 52-week low, and the shares are now down 42.8% over twelve months.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares closed flat at $4.32.

They are just above a 52-week low of $4.15 and are down 41.3% over the year.

The FY26 results do not explain those falls

Despite this sell-off, both companies actually posted reasonably strong results.

JB Hi-Fi lifted FY26 revenue 4.8% to $11.06 billion and net profit after tax 6% to $489.9 million.

Earnings before interest and tax rose 5.8% to $734.4 million.

The total dividend jumped 22.5% to 337 cents per share fully franked, and the company finished the year with $206.5 million of net cash and no interest-bearing debt.

For its part, Harvey Norman grew total system sales 3.1% to $9.64 billion and statutory profit before tax 4.9% to $790.29 million.

Its fully franked dividend rose 3.8% to 27.5 cents per share.

Chair Gerry Harvey said of the results:

FY26 delivered growth in operating earnings, continued international expansion and strong franchise profitability. With total assets approaching $9 billion, net assets approaching $5 billion, substantial property ownership and low gearing, we remain well positioned to deliver long-term sustainable growth for our shareholders.

Foolish takeaway

A 1% fall is not a crash, and the ASX 200 remains only modestly below its August level.

What changed on Tuesday was the assumptions behind the market.

Investors had been pricing in a pause, and they are now pricing in a hike.

The post Why the ASX 200 just hit a six-week low appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• How much do I need to retire on $80,000 a year at 50?
• These ASX shares benefit from a high Aussie dollar
• 3 stellar ASX dividend stocks to supplement your superannuation 
• 9 ASX shares downgraded by experts post-results this week
• 3 top ASX dividend shares to buy in September

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.