Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG) shares have staged a red-hot comeback since plumbing their all-time closing low of $15.20 apiece on 2 April.

On Tuesday afternoon, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) Mexican fast food restaurant chain were changing hands for $25.39 each.

That sees the stock up a remarkable 67.0% since 2 April.

And that’s not including the 40.8 cent per share fully franked final dividend the company declared when it reported its full year FY 2026 results on 21 August.

Guzman Y Gomez stock traded ex-dividend yesterday. Meaning if you owned shares at market close on Monday, you can expect to see that passive income payout land in your bank account on 30 September.

But following on the strong five-month share price rally, is this ASX 200 stock still a good buy today?

Guzman Y Gomez shares: Buy, hold or sell?

Baker Young’s Toby Grimm recently analysed the outlook for the company’s surging shares (courtesy of The Bull).

“GYG is a Mexican themed restaurant chain,” he said. “The share price has rallied strongly after a decision to exit loss making US operations in May, followed by encouraging full year results in August.”

However, Grimm foresees potential headwinds from exiting the world’s biggest economy.

He noted:

While there’s a near term benefit of withdrawing from the US, the decision also removes long-term expansion potential. Also, it places more pressure on Australia, Singapore and Japan to perform to greater heights to justify what we consider a lofty price-earnings multiple.

And with Guzman Y Gomez shares having rocketed off their lows, Grimm issued a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.

He concluded:

The shares materially exceed our valuation. The shares have risen from $16 on May 20 to trade at $26.85 on September 10. Investors may want to consider taking a profit at these levels given the Australian economy is dealing with a cost of living crisis.

What’s the latest from the ASX 200 fast food stock?

GYG reported a 31.6% year-on-year increase in FY 2026 statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) to $40.6 million.

However, Guzman Y Gomez booked a statutory group NPAT loss of $26.7 million due to its US exit.

Commenting on the results, founder and co-CEO Steven Marks said:

Our Australia Segment has reported network sales of $1.4 billion, up 17.9% on last year, demonstrating continued consumer demand for clean, fresh, made-to-order food, loaded with flavour and prepared at speed.

This momentum has translated into strong earnings growth, with underlying EBITDA up 28.7%, highlighting the strong operating leverage embedded in our business.

Guzman Y Gomez shares closed up 11.4% on the day of the results release.

The post Up 67%! Is it too late to buy the rally in Guzman Y Gomez shares now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Are Inghams and GYG shares a buy, hold or sell following earnings results
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Why I’d still buy Guzman Y Gomez shares after its big rise
• Everything you need to know about the Guzman Y Gomez dividend

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Recent good news for two energy companies has the analysts at Macquarie interested, with both tipped for strong share price gains.

Let’s see who they like.

Strike Energy Ltd (ASX: STX)

Strike recently struck an agreement with Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Energy to process the gas from its West Erregulla project through Hancock’s Belisama facility.

The deal also included a $30 million loan from Hancock, which Strike will use to support its share of pre-development activities.

The West Erregulla joint venture is targeting a final investment decision in FY28 with first gas expected in CY29.

Strike said of the deal:

The arrangements derisk West Erregulla’s pathway to production and represent a major value inflection point for Strike, providing a clear route to unlock one of Western Australia’s largest undeveloped onshore conventional gas resources and to materially increase the scale and diversity of Strike’s production and earnings base.

Macquarie said in a research note sent to clients that the deal was a true win-win for both companies.

The broker said:

We expect this agreement has been mutually beneficial and creates deeper alignment in the upstream JV (i.e. Hancock earns a healthy return on the tolling, Strike avoids equity dilution and proceeds to first gas more rapidly than the alternative proposal from Waitsia which is 15-20km away – requiring new environmental approvals and likely with less alignment on plant access).  

Macquarie has a target price of 15 cents on Strike shares compared to 10.75 cents currently.

Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL)

Earlier this month Amplitude announced that its Juliet-1 well in the Otway Basin offshore Victoria, had intersected a high-quality, gas-bearing reservoir.

The company said the well had found a gas-bearing interval of at least 60m, and two days later Amplitude said the well would be suspended, ready for development as part of the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP).

Macquarie said once Juliet was added to previous discoveries at Annie and Artisan, the ECSP “is now a material program”.

They also expected further drilling in the area.

As they said:

With success at Juliet-1 (pending flow test outcome, but “excellent” reservoir quality is implied from preliminary data collected so far), we therefore expect Nestor looks more likely to be drilled next. Partner O.G. Energy had deferred any decision on drilling Nestor pending the Juliet results.

Macquarie has a price target of $2.50 on Amplitude shares compared to $1.82 currently.   

Amplitude Energy is valued at $530.8 million.

The post 2 ASX energy companies Macquarie says can jump more than 37% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Strike Energy posts project breakthrough, secures West Erregulla funding
• Macquarie tips this ASX gas company to jump more than 50%
• Strike Energy upgrades Walyering gas reserves and books maiden Walyering West discovery

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have delivered markedly different returns over the past year.

On Tuesday, CBA shares were trading for $152.45 apiece. That sees the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock down 9.7% in 12 months. Though those losses will have been modestly eased by the two fully franked dividends CommBank paid out over this period.

CBA stock trades on a 3.3% fully franked dividend yield.

Woolworths shareholders have enjoyed a much more profitable year.

Trading for $38.91 apiece on Tuesday, shares in the ASX 200 supermarket giant have gained 38.6% in 12 months. And that’s not including the passive income Woolies doled out to shareholders over the year.

Woolworths stock trades on a 2.5% fully franked dividend yield.

Looking ahead, however, Shaw and Partners’ James Bills believes that shareholders would do well to exit both ASX 200 stocks (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

CBA shares still trading at a premium

“In our view, the stock trades at a significant premium to domestic peers and on historical valuations,” Bills said.

CBA trades at a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of around 23.5 times, the highest of the big four ASX 200 bank stocks.

Bills added:

While the bank maintains a high-quality franchise and strong market position, earnings growth is expected to remain modest amid competitive lending conditions and regulatory pressures.

Summarising his sell recommendation on CBA shares, Bills said:

Recent Federal government initiatives aimed at increasing housing supply and improving affordability is likely to lead to intensifying competition across the mortgage market and place pressure on lending margins.

Current valuations leave limited scope for further earnings driven upside. Investors may wish to take profits and re-deploy capital into opportunities offering stronger risk-adjusted return potential.

Woolworths share price rally may have run out of puff

Along with CBA shares, Bills also expects that Woolworths shares will struggle to outperform over the coming months.

“The supermarket group has experienced a strong recovery in the past year, with the share price recently trading near the upper end of its historical range,” he noted.

“While the company remains high quality with a leading position in Australian food retailing, much of the recent improvement appears to be reflected in the WOW share price,” Bills said.

Summarising his sell recommendation on Woolworths shares, Bills concluded:

Earnings growth is expected to remain relatively steady rather than exceptional, limiting scope for further share price appreciation from current levels.

Following the recent rally, investors may consider taking profits before re-allocating capital to opportunities with stronger growth potential and a more attractive risk-reward profile.

The post Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Woolworths and CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Worried about a downturn? 3 ASX shares and 3 ETFs built to weather it
• ASX 200 drops again as selling continues
• Down 12%: Are CBA shares a buy, sell or hold now?
• Woolworths vs Coles: Which supermarket giant is the better ASX buy?
• Buy, hold, sell: Echo IQ, James Hardie, Woolworths shares

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.