(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump and allies are holding off on more coronavirus-related stimulus as his team tracks the impact of some $5 trillion already poured into the economy — and banks on an economic rebound as shutdown measures are eased.But they may find themselves under more pressure to act again, sooner than they expected, if efforts to reopen the economy don’t rapidly bear fruit.Republicans and Democrats joined together in March to fast-track three stimulus measures totaling about $3 trillion as the economy collapsed from social-distancing practices Americans adopted to protect themselves from infection. The U.S. Federal Reserve played its part with two emergency rate cuts, and worked with Treasury to offer $2.3 trillion in loans.Now, conventional partisan divisions are beginning to emerge as Washington’s policy makers grapple with whether the money was enough.Democrats and a handful of Republicans are seeking a fourth round of stimulus, particularly to help states faced with massive budget deficits. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, working with Senate Democrats, has been advocating a massive aid package to get the economy restarted. The House may vote on that legislation as soon as Friday.Trump has expressed skepticism over helping states with large pension obligations, while pushing for a payroll tax cut that’s opposed by most Democrats and some Republicans.“We’re transitioning to greatness, and the greatness is going to be in the fourth quarter — but it’s really going to be next year, and it’s going to be a year like we’ve never had before,” Trump said at a White House news conference on Monday.His economic advisers Larry Kudlow and Kevin Hassett spoke with Republican senators Monday afternoon as both parties chart a path forward.‘Step Back’The measures the government has already taken are still working their way into the economy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has so far used less than half of $454 billion Congress authorized as backstops for Fed lending programs. He’s said he’s waiting for four more lending programs the Fed has yet to launch before deciding which ones should be expanded.For each dollar Mnuchin pledges to the central bank through the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Fed can leverage $10 in lending to corporations, small and medium sized businesses, and state and local governments.“What the president has said is, let’s step back for a few weeks, let’s be very considerate in what we do in the next round before we go consider spending another trillion,” Mnuchin said in an interview on CNBC on Monday. “But the president is determined we’ll do whatever we need to do.”Republicans aren’t unified on the path forward. Some have begun to express unease with the exploding U.S. deficit and the ballooning role of the government.The Republican Study Committee, a group of House conservatives, is lobbying for the next stimulus package to offset any new borrowing with longer-term savings.But a Republican senator, Josh Hawley of Missouri, has called for a fourth stimulus that would provide 80% of payroll for all U.S. workers for the duration of the crisis. Another Senate Republican, Susan Collins of Maine, aligned herself with Democrats on the issue last week, calling for swift action to aid states.Fed ConcernsThe unemployment rate tripled in April to 14.7%, and Fed officials have also urged more government spending.“If this is going to go on for a long period of time –- I think it’s going to go on in some phases for a year or two –- I think Congress is going to need to continue to give assistance to workers who’ve lost their jobs,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Sunday.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, while not commenting directly on fiscal policy, weighed in earlier this month saying now is not the time to worry about the federal deficit. “This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States,” Powell said, “and get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible.”There’s pressure in conservative circles, however, to rein in or even stop the spending. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, a former North Carolina congressman and co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, and Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budgett, have expressed unease with spending levels, two people familiar with the situation say. Other conservative figures have publicly called for a halt.“We have to stop this phase-four spending bill,” said Stephen Moore, a member of Trump’s wide-ranging task force on reopening the economy, and a longtime informal adviser to the president. He’s leading a “Save Our Country” conservative coalition aimed at heading off new spending.“No more, not a dime more,” he said. “Our message to Trump is: Do what you did that actually rebuilt the economy back in 2017. Cut taxes, reduce regulation, provide a liability shield for businesses so they can hire their workers back, and let’s grow the private sector, not the government.”Payroll Tax CutMoore’s coalition favors one Trump idea: suspending payroll taxes. Moore said the taxes, which help finance unemployment insurance, Social Security and Medicare, the health program for the elderly and disabled, should be eliminated through the end of the year.“I’ve talked to him twice about this. He keeps saying, Steve, can you get Nancy Pelosi to go along with that?” Moore said. Trump has even floated the notion of a permanent cut, which would deliver another blow to government revenue.Moore believes the cut would encourage hiring, but Democrats oppose the idea, saying it would do nothing for the more than 30 million Americans out of jobs.The president has also proposed massive spending on infrastructure, taking advantage of low interest rates for government debt. Moore called that misguided. “We’ve already spent so much money,” he said.But other conservatives think the White House won’t be able to hold off as the economic damage from the outbreak continues to mount. At the same time, congressional Democrats preparing new spending plans.“I don’t think that’s going to be a constructive start,” Yuval Levin, director of social, cultural, and constitutional studies at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said of the Democratic proposals. “But I also think the Republican view, that you can sit it out and wait and see how it goes, that’s not going to survive very long, either,” he said in an interview.White House aides have not ruled out more relief altogether, and say they simply want to see how the existing stimulus changes the economic landscape.“Many people would like to just pause for a moment and take a look at the economic impact of this massive assistance program, which is the greatest in United States history,” Kudlow told ABC on Sunday. “After all this assistance, let’s have a look at what the impact is in at least the next couple of weeks for the economy.”Hassett described narrower measures under development at the White House — aid for children going hungry without school meals, or who lack internet access to study online. That would “be part of whatever happens in the phase-four deal to fill in the gaps,” he said Sunday on CBS News.“And then the question really becomes, is phase four really going to be extending the bridge, because we’re not there yet, or is it going to be focused on growth and making sure that, now that we’re on the other side, that we have a healthy economy again?” Hassett said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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Yahoo Finance’s Myles Udland, Jen Rogers, Dan Roberts, and Melody Hahm discuss the possible merger between two big players in the food delivery space. (Bloomberg) — Lauren Carrick and fiance Joe Harrison haven’t had a good night’s sleep in weeks. The two dancers on Celebrity Cruises’ Infinity say being held aboard ships for almost two months has left them emotionally drained.“I cried all day,” said Carrick, 29. “We need to have alcohol to sleep — that’s how bad it is. We’re worried, tense, stressed out. We just want to get home.”Carrick and Harrison are among the more than 90,000 cruise workers in U.S. waters stranded on ships two months after the coronavirus pandemic began forcing cruise lines to halt operations and repatriate crew. While companies work through a thicket of shifting rules on returning workers to their home countries, recent deaths of crew have shook the industry and underscored concern about mental health.“It’s a very stressful situation,” said Fabrizio Barcellona, assistant secretary for seafarers at the International Transport Workers’ Federation, which represents local unions. “The prolonged periods they have to stay on board can create a situation of unrest. People can become distressed and that can create flash points.”Carnival Corp.’s Princess Cruises said Sunday a 39-year-old crew member from Ukraine was killed after leaping off its Regal Princess in the port of Rotterdam. The ship’s crew was in the process of being repatriated, the company said in an emailed statement.Another worker was found dead in his cabin on the Carnival Breeze, unrelated to Covid-19, the company said. Carnival, the world’s largest operator, said it was not providing details of the death out of respect for the worker’s family.Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., the No. 2 line and owner of Celebrity Cruises, said a crew member went overboard from its Jewel of the Seas about two weeks ago.‘Suicidal’ MessagesCrew members have said the reported deaths have rattled them and dampened morale, said Krista Thomas, a former Norwegian Cruise Line guest manager who’s operating two Facebook pages for stranded crew and their families. In recent days, several workers have told her in direct messages that they are suicidal, she said.“Many of these people have been isolated in their small cabins for 21 hours a day and they’re breaking down from the loneliness and stress,” said Thomas, who operates the pages from Vancouver. “Many have been told to pack quickly to leave, and then their charter flights get canceled. Those highs and lows are taking their toll.”The cruise-line operators say government policy changes and travel restrictions have complicated efforts to get crew home. More than 124 cruise ships — with 94,600 workers aboard — are underway or at anchor in U.S. waters, the Coast Guard said Monday.“That one simple question — how do we get you home? — turns out to be incredibly complex to answer,” Michael Bayley, chief executive officer of Royal Caribbean International, wrote in a letter to crew members this month. “Each country has rules and regulations for who can travel home, and how, and when. But in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, those rules have gone in all different directions — and they frequently change without notice.”About 15 countries won’t allow their citizens to return home at all amid the pandemic, said Bayley.About 7,100 Filipino crew on 20 ships were anchored in Manila bay as of last week, awaiting government testing and clearance to return home, the Philippine Coast Guard said. Many have been confined to their cabins for at least two weeks, according to crew and some operators. They will be quarantined 14 more days before leaving the vessel, the Coast Guard said in an email.Royal Caribbean International has said all 25,000 crew members on its ships have completed 14 days of in-room quarantine and are now practicing social distancing. While the company has repatriated about 9,100 seafarers, plans are still being made for the others, who come from 60 different countries, Bayley said in the letter.Carnival has also cited port closures and travel restrictions as roadblocks to getting crew back on land. The operator repatriated 20,000 workers last month, and another 49,600 are waiting to go home as of Monday, according to Roger Frizzell, a spokesman for Carnival, which employs about 90,000 crew on 105 cruise ships.CDC RequirementsThe business shutdown for many cruise operators began in earnest March 14, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued its first-ever no sail order for all cruise ships in U.S. waters.The order banned passengers from boarding and required lines to come up with plans to contain Covid-19 infections. Since February, more than 30 cruise voyages have been linked to coronavirus outbreaks, according to the CDC website.Last month, the CDC updated requirements that called for cruise company executives to guarantee that seafarers would be flown home on charter flights and other private transport. Under the rules, crew should not use public airport terminals or transportation to avoid the risk of spreading infections.Travel restrictions have also meant that in some cases, workers are shuffled from one ship to another before they can set foot on land again.Carrick and Harrison, both from the U.K., were moved to another Celebrity ship, the Reflection, a few days ago. They were told to pack to transfer to yet another ship Monday, but were given a last-minute option to remain on their current ship and then get on a charter flight to the U.K. next week.They chose the flight and have also made another important decision. After dancing on ships for more than 6 years, this will be their last voyage.“This whole experience has been a nightmare,” said Carrick. “I can’t even think of coming back to a ship.”(Updates Carnival crew numbers in 15th paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.