My portfolio got an absolute thumping yesterday.

A shellacking.

I’m pretty sure it was the biggest percentage and dollar drop I’ve ever suffered in a single day.

The reason?

One of my larger shareholdings, Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD), resumed trading… more than a year after the shares were suspended from trade because the company hadn’t lodged its accounts.

The reason for that? CTM had uncovered systemic overcharging in parts of its business, and the more it looked, the more it found. The company spent that year getting to the bottom of the problem and then, crucially, trying to work out if it could repay its customers without going broke.

It thinks it can. It lodged its accounts. And the company’s shares resumed trading.

And then? The shares fell 85%. ‘Ouch’ doesn’t even begin to describe it.

The thing is, yesterday’s news was actually better than many had feared. Some speculated that it would never trade again. Others thought the fall might have been 90% or 95%. Or more.

CTM had sporadically updated shareholders on its progress, too, so we all knew what was happening. The only unknown was when the shares would start trading and how bad the carnage would be.

So, how do I feel?

Well, poorer, obviously.

And angry at the people inside the company who knew, or should have known, what was going on. And especially at those who (I should say ‘allegedly’ here, just to be safe) knowingly did the wrong thing.

Here’s the thing, though: No-one outside the company knew it was happening. Even the company’s previous auditors had signed off on the accounts, having presumably done the work of making sure everything was above board.

So, yes, I’m poorer and angry. But I’m also philosophical.

Life is unpredictable. Sometimes, you just get blindsided. That’s the nature of investing.

No, it’s not welcome. But it’s unavoidable. Stuff, to clean up the phrase a little, happens.

The other thing?

The collapse in CTM’s share price is precisely why good investing habits matter.

I’m diversified. By company, industry, currency and geography.

I have a long term perspective. Yesterday sucked. I suspect I’ll remember it in 5 or 10 years’ time. But I also suspect that, after that decade of compounding, that scar will have faded meaningfully – both financially and emotionally.

I expect bad news sometimes. Not because it’s welcome, but because life is messy. I don’t expect every company in my portfolio to do well. Sometimes, it’ll be because I made a mistake. Sometimes because a competitor, customer or supplier makes life harder for one of my investments. Sometimes there’ll just be ‘unwelcome misadventure’, to put it mildly.

We succeed as investors not by avoiding losing investments. That’s not possible, unless you stay in cash… and have you seen inflation, lately?

No, we succeed by doing the right things, which cushion the blows when the bad news comes, and crucially also letting the good news drive our compounding over long periods of time.

In hindsight, I can tell you precisely which companies I should have bought, and which I should have avoided. I can tell you how many shares I should have bought, and at what prices.

But without that, and without a working crystal ball, my job – and yours – is to think in probabilities and expected returns.

It is to assemble a portfolio of companies that we think are likely to deliver superior performance over the long term, knowing that we’ll be wrong sometimes, but aiming to be right more often – and for the winners to make more than the losers lose.

There is no successful investor in history who hasn’t made losing investments. It’s not how investing works.

They succeed despite those losses.

Could I have foreseen this? I don’t know, but I don’t think so. No-one outside the company knew – and presumably relatively few inside it. Even the auditors didn’t know (or if they did, they didn’t say). So how could we?

Could I avoid the next one? Sure, if I never invested again. But that would be incredibly counterproductive.

So what can I – we – take from the painful experience?

I think a reminder that investing is an imprecise art, full of uncertainty. 

But that it’s also incredibly worthwhile, overall, and these sorts of things, while gut-wrenching, are just the storms we have to sometimes sail through to reach our destination.

Was my CTM investment too large, as a proportion of my portfolio? It’s easy to say yes, but if I couldn’t possibly have predicted the alleged wrongdoing, isn’t that just hindsight speaking?

Yes… and no. The very reality of that uncertainty perhaps should have led me to have less of my portfolio in a single company. It’s something I’ll spend some time dwelling on, and might make some (other) changes in my portfolio in due course.

(There’s a personal wrinkle for me, in that I’m not allowed to recommend a company as a ‘Buy’ for our members and sell down if my position has become too large, so it’s probably moot in my particular case… but the principle still holds.)

But – and here’s the really important thing – as painful as it was, it has not dimmed my optimism for long-term investing one iota.

I share the Vanguard Index chart regularly in this space. It shows the progress of the ASX (and other markets and assets) over a thirty year period. It shows booms and crashes, economic greed and fear.

What it doesn’t show – but is inherent in the results – is that companies were born and died during that time. They were added to and removed from share market indices.

It doesn’t show the companies that lost 30%, 50%, 75% or yes, 85%, during that period. Some recovered. Some never did.

It shows the overall result. That despite those temporary and permanent losses, huge amounts of value were created, overall.

I wish I could avoid every loss, and grab every gain. I also wish for a unicorn and world peace.

In the real world, I know that this is a stumble for the value of one company in my portfolio. And I fully expect more (unfortunately).

I also fully expect that my portfolio will grow meaningfully over the next few decades, despite those stumbles. Ditto for the market as a whole.

Sailing through a storm isn’t fun. But getting to the other side, and to your destination, makes bearing the storms worthwhile.

I’m keeping my eyes firmly on the horizon. I reckon that’s the lesson of history, and the right approach for all investors.

Fool on!

The post Why I’m still smiling after losing 85% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Warning: Corporate Travel shares have crashed 80%. What on earth just happened?
• Corporate Travel Management shares resume trading after FY26 report
• Corporate Travel Management swings to profit as earnings jump in FY26
• Corporate Travel Management reports FY25 and 1HY26 earnings
• Corporate Travel Management secures new funding and updates on FY25 and FY26 earnings

Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has positions in Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Gina-Rinehart-backed G50 Corp Ltd (ASX: G50) are trading about 50% below their highs over the past year, but the team at Morgans believes the shares are ripe for a rerating.

The broker has issued a research note to its clients with a speculative buy recommendation on the shares and a very bullish share price target, which I’ll get to shortly.

What’s so special about this ASX explorer?

One of the reasons for their confidence in the exploration company is the backing of iron ore magnate Ms Rinehart, whose company Hancock Prospecting invested $7.95 million into G50 as part of a recent share placement, emerging with a 5.4% stake.

The $26.25 million which was raised at 59.5 cents per share – the shares are currently changing hands for 49.5 cents – is to be used to accelerate exploration at the company’s Golconda Project in Arizona and its White Caps Project in Nevada.

The work will include further drilling, geological studies, gallium test work, and early permitting activities at Golconda.

Chair Ian Davies said regarding the placement:

We’re pleased to welcome Hancock Prospecting to the register as a cornerstone investor. Hancock is one of Australia’s most respected resources investors, and their decision to back a company whose assets sit entirely in the United States, across both precious metals and strategic minerals, is a meaningful endorsement of the work Mark and the team have done at Golconda and White Caps. The board’s focus is now on deploying this capital with discipline against the program we’ve set out and on the drilling and metallurgical test work that will ultimately determine the value of both projects.

Shares looking cheap, broker says

Morgans said recent drilling results had extended the strike length at Golconda to 1.8km, and there had also been a high-grade gold discovery at White Caps.

They added that metallurgical test work had confirmed the potential to generate a gallium-rich precious metals concentrate at Golconda through conventional processing methods.

The broker added:

We view Hancock’s investment as a strong endorsement of the G50 story, in particular its strategy to unlock and monetise its Golconda gallium. Hancock has taken a selective approach in recent years, deploying capital offshore and across the broader critical minerals thematic, taking substantial positions in names such as St George Mining, Vulcan Energy and MP Materials. We think Hancock’s due diligence of the project, capacity to support further funding and diversification into North America are all very supportive of the factors which differentiate G50 from other precious metals exposures.

Morgans said G50 was well-funded for 18 to 24 months. The broker has a price target on G50 shares of $1.94.

The company is valued at $118.4 million.

The post This Gina Rinehart-backed ASX explorer could rise almost 300%, Morgans says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Up 20% this year, are Rio Tinto shares still good value?
• Why I’m still smiling after losing 85%
• Why brokers see 85% upside for this ASX biotech stock
• Down another 18%: Why I’d buy WiseTech shares in the dip

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares have been sluggish in 2026, falling around 12% so far. However, the ASX biotech stock is showing signs of life, with shares up around 1% to $2.40 in early Friday afternoon trading. This is taking their monthly gain to 15% and their 12-month return to 25%.

Could another leg higher be coming?

Ryoncil is turning Mesoblast commercial

Mesoblast develops and commercialises allogeneic cellular medicines for complex diseases. The big change for the ASX biotech stock is that it is no longer simply a clinical-stage biotech, with its Ryoncil product now approved in the US and generating meaningful revenue.

Ryoncil treats children with steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease, a serious complication that can occur after a stem cell transplant. The product generated US$115 million in net revenue during FY2026, its first full year following launch, with fourth-quarter revenue reaching US$36 million, up 20% from the previous quarter.

Mesoblast is now working to expand Ryoncil into adults with the same condition, potentially opening up a market around three times larger than the paediatric opportunity. The company has commenced its registration trial and is planning a broad US clinical program.

There are further opportunities in the pipeline. Mesoblast is developing Ryoncil for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, with the US Food and Drug Administration having cleared the company to proceed with a registrational trial.

More catalysts in the making

The company also has potentially significant catalysts beyond Ryoncil. Its rexlemestrocel-L therapy is being developed for chronic lower back pain. The opportunity is what makes this trial particularly interesting for the ASX biotech stock.

The company estimates that chronic lower back pain associated with inflammation and degenerative disc disease affects more than 7 million people in the US. Even single-digit market penetration could potentially generate peak annual revenue of more than US$10 billion, according to Mesoblast.

However, investors will have to wait. Top-line results are expected around the middle of 2027, after the final patient completes 12 months of follow-up.

Brokers see plenty more upside

That pipeline is helping fuel optimism among brokers.

TradingView data shows all six analysts covering the ASX biotech stock rate it a strong buy. Their average price target of $4.27 implies potential upside of approximately 78% from $2.40. The most bullish forecast is $5.46, representing around 128% upside, while the most pessimistic is $2.90.

Bell Potter is particularly bullish. The broker retained its buy rating and $4.45 price target following Mesoblast’s latest results. It expects continued double-digit growth from Ryoncil, alongside major potential catalysts from rexlemestrocel-L in heart failure and chronic lower back pain.

At $4.45, Bell Potter’s price target implies approximately 85% upside from the current $2.40 share price.

For investors comfortable with biotech risk, Mesoblast offers an increasingly interesting proposition: a commercial product generating meaningful revenue, an expanding pipeline and significant potential upside if its key clinical programs continue to progress.

The post Why brokers see 85% upside for this ASX biotech stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Experts tip these $3 billion ASX shares to deliver over 75% returns
• Buy, hold, sell: Challenger, APA Group, Mesoblast shares
• Why now is the time to buy low on these ASX healthcare shares with up to 84% upside
• Mesoblast earnings: Strong revenue growth and operational milestones in FY26
• ASX 200 healthcare shares soar 9% amid notable FY26 reports from CSL, Pro Medicus

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in Mesoblast. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.