It’s turning into a pretty horrid week for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and many ASX shares. The ASX 200 started the week at just over 9,000 points – a psychological threshold that the market has continuously traded above for more than a month. However, after a 1% drop on Tuesday, a further 0.1% decline yesterday, and a nasty 1.5% drop so far this Thursday, the index is now sitting at just 8,777 points. As such, many investors may be wondering whether we are seeing the start of a stock market crash unfolding in real time.

Let’s dig into that uncomfortable question.

Well, it’s no secret that the markets are currently rattled. It’s not hard to see why. There are still some positive aspects of the global economy, of course. For example, corporate investment, particularly into AI infrastructure, remains elevated by historical standards in some corners of the global economy.

But the potential negatives seem to be overtaking this optimism in the minds of investors around the world. There are many troubling developments to point to here.

For one, the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Various tit-for-tat moves between Iran and the United States have kept the Starits of Hormuz effectively closed. Oil prices are responding accordingly, with Brent crude oil now back over US$101 a barrel. High oil prices spill over into the costs of transport, production and most other economic inputs, as well as dampen economic activity throughout the global economy.

Higher oil prices also increase inflation, which we’ll touch on in a moment.

So there’s that.

What could cause an ASX stock market crash?

Additionally, investors in the global bond market have also begun to bid up the price of government debt across the board. That includes US government debt, as well as Australian bonds.

That might not sound consequential. But it has profound implications for investors. High bond prices reflect a loss of confidence in those governments’ fiscal foundations. That’s not great news for a world that is reliant on the US economy and the supremacy of the US dollar for stability and growth.

These concerns seem to stem from ever-widening budget deficits, as well as sticky inflation. Inflation is still well above where the governments of both the United States and Australia want it to be. And, as we touched on above, it could get even worse if oil prices keep climbing. Australia has already had three interest rate rises in 2026, and markets are bracing for at least one more. Although this may eventually tame inflation, it will come with a cost to households and businesses across the country.

All in all, we have a potentially potent cauldron of factors that could bode very ill indeed for the global economy. So it’s perhaps no wonder that the markets seem to be losing confidence, and fast.

Foolish takeaway

Now, whether the markets will continue to drop, and even hit correction or crash territory, is something that no one can predict. The markets may well bounce back on the back of some positive development in the Middle East, or within any other arena that we’ve discussed. Or, things could just keep getting worse.

I think investors should be preparing themselves for either scenario. It’s important to wargame these scenarios before they happen and avoid decisions you may later regret (selling shares during a crash, for example). So if you’re worried about a potential stock market crash, today is the day to take stock of your portfolio and draw up a battle plan.

The post Is the ASX heading for a stock market crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Megaport shares have surged 10% in a week to $18. I think they could hit $25
• ASX 200 dives to a 6-week low. What’s behind today’s sell-off?
• Where will the best returns in the ASX 200 be in the next year?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• CSL shares are up 90%. How much higher can they go?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR) shares have fallen almost 60% over twelve months, and the brokers covering the company now think there is more upside than downside.

The stock trades at $2.80 against a 52-week range of $2.60 to $7.96.

The majority of brokers hold a buy rating, and the $5.40 average target implies roughly 90% upside.

The market capitalisation is now under $804 million.

Why SiteMinder shares collapsed

The company sells an e-commerce platform to hotels and other accommodation businesses.

The shares have dropped around 27% since the FY26 result in late August and are down 52.30% for the calendar year.

Two things caused the damage.

The first was the broad de-rating of ASX technology shares, as investors questioned whether artificial intelligence erodes software business models.

The second was specific and came from the outlook statement.

What the FY26 result showed

Weirdly, the numbers were the best in the company’s history.

Revenue rose 22% on a constant currency and organic basis to $266.1 million.

Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation jumped 96.5% to $28.1 million.

The margin expanded to 10.6% and the net loss narrowed to $11.3 million from $24.5 million.

Annual recurring revenue grew 24.1% to $313.7 million and adjusted free cash flow more than doubled to $10.5 million.

The operating detail was good too.

Transaction revenue grew 34% and average revenue per user climbed 9.3% to $429.

SiteMinder now serves 56,000 hotel customers globally, with the Channels Plus hotel count up 43%.

Adjusted gross margin reached 67.2%.

More than 85% of customer billings are in foreign currencies, so a stronger Australian dollar impacted earnings.

Chief executive Sankar Narayan pointed to the trajectory of the company:

SiteMinder’s FY26 performance builds on three years of sustained progress. Subscription and transaction ARR growth have exceeded 15% and 30%, respectively, on a constant-currency and organic basis in each of those years, while adjusted EBITDA has improved by more than $50 million with margins expanding from negative 14.5% to positive 10.6%.

The guidance that sank SiteMinder shares

Management expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to keep expanding in FY27 and reach the mid-20% range by FY30.

Annual recurring revenue is targeted to grow at around 20% a year over the next four years.

Herein lies the problem.

ARR grew 24.1% in FY26, so a 20% target is a deceleration.

A mid-20% margin by FY30 is four years away for a company that just posted margins of 10.6%.

Investors who had priced in faster compounding left.

There is a reasonable counter-argument.

Guiding to 20% ARR growth after delivering 24.1% is conservative rather than alarming, and management has beaten its own numbers for three consecutive years.

The margin path is also cumulative, so each year of expansion compounds against a larger revenue base.

None of that helped a share price that had been priced for perfection.

Foolish takeaway

The bear case on SiteMinder shares is that the company will likely exhibit slowing growth from here.

The bull case is that a business growing recurring revenue at 20% with expanding margins should not be valued at $804 million.

I think the sell-off has gone too far, because the FY26 execution was strong and the balance sheet no longer needs rescuing.

The risk is that global travel softens while households everywhere tighten, and hotels are not immune to that.

The post Brokers say SiteMinder shares can rise 90%. Is the sell-off overdone? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX shares tipped by brokers to return 66% and 90%
• 2 top ASX shares to buy and hold for the next decade
• Why I’d invest $10,000 into these ASX growth shares
• 2 ASX shares tipped to grow 60% or more in the next 12 months
• Why I think this is a top ASX tech share to buy today

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Plenty of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are now trading below their 200-day moving average, and on Thursday, the benchmark index joined them.

The ASX 200 Index fell 1.68% to 8,762 points, its lowest level in six weeks.

Its 200-day moving average was sitting near 8,816 points before the open.

The index has now dropped through it, which is the sort of thing technical investors notice.

Why so many ASX 200 shares have broken trend

Three forces arrived at once.

Brent crude pushed to US$101.60 a barrel as tensions involving the United States and Iran escalated.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.84%, its highest since 2023.

Markets now price roughly a 70% chance the Reserve Bank raises rates again on 29 September.

The selling was broad, with 153 shares falling against 36 rising at one point on Thursday.

Here are three stocks that have been particularly hard hit.

1. Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO)

Judo trades at 99.5 cents against a 52-week range of 82 cents to $2.07.

The shares are down almost 40% over twelve months and have not recovered from June’s guidance downgrade.

However, the FY26 result did not justify that. Statutory net profit rose 29% to $111.1 million and profit before tax climbed 34% to $168.1 million.

Deposits jumped 24% to $12.2 billion and now fund more than 70% of the balance sheet.

Chief executive Chris Bayliss addressed the credit issue directly.

FY26 has been another year of genuine momentum for Judo. While the increase in specific provisions late in the year was disappointing, the underlying performance of the Bank has remained strong, with record revenue, continued operating leverage, strong deposit growth and lending at the top end of guidance.

FY27 guidance calls for profit before tax of $210 million to $220 million.

2. JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

JB Hi-Fi is the most extreme case here.

JB Hi-Fi shares traded at $64.60 on Thursday, below their previous 52-week low of $65.45.

However, like Judo Capital, results remain strong.

FY26 revenue rose 4.8% to $11.06 billion and net profit after tax lifted 6% to $489.9 million.

The total ordinary dividend rose 22.5% to 337 cents per share, fully franked.

JB Hi-Fi ended the year with $206.5 million in net cash and no interest-bearing debt.

However, investors are selling due to potentially higher rates, which would encourage households to pull back spending on discretionary purchases.

3. Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Qantas sits near $9, close to its 52-week low of $8.03.

Unlike the previous two, earnings have fallen in recent times.

FY26 underlying profit before tax fell $330 million to $2.06 billion.

Almost all of that came from one source, with the Middle East conflict producing a $420 million net impact through record fuel prices and route disruption.

Qantas Loyalty still lifted underlying earnings before interest and tax 12%.

Oil at US$101 is the obvious problem, and it is why this one is among the cheapest ASX 200 shares on an earnings multiple.

Foolish takeaway

I would rather buy a profitable business experiencing a temporary share price downturn than a stock everyone already likes.

The catch is that such stocks can stay below trend for a very long time.

The post Top 3 ASX 200 shares now below their 200-day moving average appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• JB Hi-Fi, GPT Group, Charter Hall shares hit 52-week low: Is there any chance of a rebound?
• Top 3 ASX shares I’d buy after the most recent sell-off
• Brokers rate these 5 ASX shares as a strong buy, and tip upsides of 28% to 62%
• 3 ASX 200 shares tipped to return 27% to 87%
• Morgan Stanley tips Qantas shares to climb 38%

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.