Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) shares resumed trading on 3 September. This came more than a year after the shares were suspended from the ASX.

Its shares were suspended for 13 months because the company couldn’t complete its audited financial accounts while an investigation into its billing practices was underway.

The investigation found that the company had overcharged clients by more than $250 million. This included around £80 million relating to UK government contracts.

The stock last traded at $16.07 before the halt began in August 2025.

On their first day back, shares crashed a monumental 85%, and are now hovering around $2.13. 

So is this a bargain buy, or simply too big of a risk?

The bull and bear case

Despite the negative headlines, the underlying business is still performing reasonably well. 

FY26 revenue rose to $670 million, and underlying EBITDA increased 36% to $114 million. The company also returned to a statutory profit of $17.7 million. 

It also continued to win and renew large contracts, suggesting customers haven’t abandoned the business.

However, the big risk is that the problems aren’t completely behind the company yet. 

Revenue also fell in July compared with the previous year, which raises questions about whether the business is actually recovering. 

If the liabilities increase, customers leave, or it needs to raise more capital, shareholders could suffer further losses or dilution. 

On the other hand, if Corporate Travel Management finishes the repayments, avoids further problems, gets a clean audit opinion and returns to growth, the current share price could prove very cheap. 

In simple terms, it is potentially a good business at a distressed price. But buying it now is a high-risk bet that the worst is over.

What is Morgans saying?

In a note out of Morgans this week, the broker said it believes Corporate Travel Management is a “turnaround story under new leadership.”

Following years of overcharging clients, it will refund them A$246m by 30 September 2027, supported by its new A$175m debt facility. 

FY27 guidance will be provided at the AGM. We forecast earnings to fall materially due to a higher AUD, reduced special project work and higher corporate costs. Earnings growth should resume from FY28 given new management’s strategy. The acceleration of new client wins in the first two months of FY27 is encouraging. Given what has gone on, it will take time for confidence to rebuild and risks remain. However, we think CTD is a turnaround story under new leadership with material upside potential if it executes. We resume coverage with a BUY and A$3.06 PT.

From the current share price, this indicates an upside potential of over 40%. 

Foolish takeaway 

Corporate Travel Management is a high-risk turnaround investment. While the underlying business shows signs of recovery, significant customer liabilities, a modified audit opinion, and weakening recent revenue leave the company financially uncertain. 

Investors are effectively betting that no further major problems emerge and that it can resolve its liabilities and return to sustainable growth. 

But if that doesn’t happen, further losses or shareholder dilution are possible.

The post Corporate Travel Management recently resumed trading – Here’s why it could be a buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares were making headlines yesterday after the company released updated FY26 guidance. 

GrainCorp provides handling, storage, marketing, logistics and agronomic services to the East Coast grain industry.

What did GrainCorp report?

• Reconfirmed FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance at around $200–240 million
• FY26 underlying NPAT expected within $20–50 million range
• Business Transformation Program to deliver $12 million run-rate benefits by end FY26
• One-off restructuring costs of $5 million incurred in FY26
• System transformation spend unchanged for 2H26 at $25 million; FY27 updated to $30–35 million.

Why did the share price fall?

As reported by my colleague Aaron Teboneras, GrainCorp announced its transformation program remains on track to deliver around $12 million in FY26 savings, ahead of its previous target. 

Its longer-term goal of adding $20 million-$30 million to through-the-cycle EBITDA by FY28 is unchanged.

However, the technology rollout has been delayed. Release 1 is now expected to go live in Q2 2027, versus H2 2026 previously. 

GrainCorp said the delay will reduce implementation risk, but FY27 spending is now expected to rise to $30 million-$35 million, about $30 million above its previous estimate.

Investors were seemingly unimpressed by the news, as GrainCorp shares fell 4% during yesterday’s session. 

The agribusiness has now seen its share price fall 22% over the last 12 months. 

Bell Potter sees greener pastures ahead for GrainCorp shares

Following the release, the team at Bell Potter provided updated guidance on GrainCorp shares. 

Commenting on the outlook for the company, the broker said GrainCorp’s FY26 guidance is broadly in line with expectations, with Underlying EBITDA expected around the midpoint of the $200-240m range, including $5m of restructuring costs from a review of the Agribusiness operating model. 

Commenting on the company’s adjusted outlook, the broker said near-term earnings are expected to be slightly lower because of a $5m restructuring cost. 

However, Bell Potter believes GrainCorp’s transformation program will ultimately deliver more savings than previously expected, which is why it raised its price target.

Buy rating retained 

Bell Potter’s report also reiterated a buy rating on GrainCorp shares. 

Additionally, the broker has upgraded its share price target to $7.50 (previously $7.15). 

Based on yesterday’s closing price, this indicates upside potential of almost 13%. 

Buy rating retained. The recent ABARE crop report was positive lead for FY27e and is yet to filter entirely through consensus expectations. However, the margin backdrop at this point, in terms of both grain basis and oilseed crush margins, remains the strongest it has for three years. To us this is key, as consensus FY27e expectations (which the 2026-27 crop underwrites) looks to be carrying forward the margin environment of FY25-26e, which was materially weaker. Trading at ~5.0x FY27e PBTDA we see the valuation as undemanding.

The post Why this broker thinks GrainCorp shares are a buy after yesterday’s fall appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Often investors associate ASX ETFs with broad, index tracking funds. 

While these ASX ETFs make a great foundation for a portfolio, there are also more focused funds that track specific themes and sectors. 

Are thematic funds a good investment?

Like any investment, these kinds of funds come with pros and cons. 

Investing in niche, thematic ASX ETFs can give investors targeted exposure to emerging industries, trends, and themes with strong long-term growth potential.

These ETFs also provide diversification across several companies within a theme, making them less risky than investing in a single company. 

However, their narrow focus can also create significant risks, as the ETF’s performance may depend heavily on one industry or trend, making it more volatile and vulnerable to changes in technology, regulation, competition or investor sentiment. 

One thematic ASX ETF that has stood the test of time and brought consistent long-term returns is BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK). 

A decade of delivery

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has compounded at approximately 9% per annum over the last 10 years, dividends included.

Generating 9% returns each year is nothing to complain about. 

However, HACK ETF has outpaced the ASX 200 Index.

HACK ETF aims to track an index that provides exposure to leading companies in the global cybersecurity sector.

A new report from Betashares has highlighted its strong track record.

Since its inception, HACK ETF has returned 18.9% p.a. as at 31 August 2026 and generated more than $800 million in value to shareholders.

This has far outperformed the ASX 200 in the same span. 

Why the growth can continue 

According to Betashares, more than 100 major tech companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Anthropic, and OpenAI, issued an urgent joint letter last month calling for collective action to strengthen existing cyber defences in the age of AI.

While cybersecurity offerings have existed for decades, this wake-up call starkly reminds us that the current security status quo is no longer sufficient. Longstanding bugs, excessive permissions and weak authentication in legacy systems have left the attack surface wider and more exposed than ever.

This growing issue is also resulting in financial investment. 

Firms have been increasing cybersecurity and IT spending as the complexity of protecting proprietary information grows. It also remains one of the more defensive areas in enterprise tech budgets, and Chief Information Officers are unlikely to cut spending during periods of economic weakness.

While no thematic ETF is guaranteed to repeat its past performance, HACK ETF’s decade-long track record and the growing need for cybersecurity highlight how a niche investment theme can evolve into a durable, long-term opportunity.

The post This ASX ETF has beaten the market over the last 10 years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.